Saturday, 10 September 2016

The Whistling Shrew St Leger and Irish Champions Weekend Preview

There are no fewer than 8 group races on what promises to be one of the best days of the flat season with top class action both sides of the Irish Sea. At Doncaster the final classic of the season sees hot favourite Idaho take aim to give O'Brien another St Leger, before the evening card at Leopardstown concludes with a red hot Champion Stakes where dual classic winners Minding and Harzand go head-to-head against a field of proven Group 1 talent in what should be the race of the year.

Shrew's Shrewdies

Doncaster

2:00: Champagne Stakes - Thunder Snow 5/2
3:10: Weber Park Stakes - Breton Rock 7/1
3:45: Muntahaa 11/2 or Idaho 8/13

Leopardstown

4:00: Champion Juvenile Stakes - Radio Silence 9/2
5:05: Enterprise Stakes - Stellar Mass 15/2
5:35: Matron Stakes - Persuasive 7/2
6:10: Boomerang Stakes - Awtaad 7/4
6:45: Irish Champion Stakes -  Harzand 11/4 or Hawkbill 14/1 e/w

Irish Champion 1-2-3-4: Harzand - Highland Reel - Hawkbill - New Bay

Runner-by-runner Guide

Doncaster

3:45 - St Leger, 1m6f (3yo)

Idaho has obvious claims here and it is no surprise to see him as an odds-on favourite. On what we know so far it looks as though he will stay the trip and as long as that is assured he should win. That is assuming that his exertions already this season haven't taken their toll already. From a pure numbers perspective it may be worth taking him on - the stamina is assured with Muntathaa and he is the most likely threat if it all does go wrong for the favourite. An each way chances both Housesofparliament and Sword Fighter could hit the frame - perhaps even in another O'Brien 1-2-3

Leopardstown

6:45 - Irish Champion Stakes

The English and Irish Derby winner, An Oaks and 2000 Guineas winner, 2 French Derby winners, Breeders Cup turf winner, King George winner, Prince of Wales winner, an Eclipse winnerand a previous Irish Champion Stakes winner means this is surely the best race in the world this year. It would be easy to say this is just one to savour but there are a few angles in the race that may  give clues as to how it will pan out:

Consistent and classy Highland Reel leads the way for the older hores
1. Highland Reel

1 of 4 O'Brien horses entered here and probably has a better chance than the market suggests. His run behind Postponed in the Juddmonte is really good form and he can be relied upon as not having too many off days. Place chances.





2. My Dream Boat
My Dream Boat pulls off a surprise win at Ascot to beat Found

Was a shock winner of the Prince of Wales stakes when chinning Found on the line - that seemed to be a freak result and he wasn't able to repeat it when quite a way back behind. Has been off since then but would need an unlikely repeat of that form if not better to follow up. Others preferred.







Can New Bay bounce back to his best en route to the Arc?
3. New Bay

Yet to show the same level of form as last year and took a three month break after looking poor on seasons return. His win last time out was fairly easy and has hopefully brought him along a little to be ready for this. Last years Arc 3rd puts him ahead of Found by quite some way. I imagine the Arc is the ultimate aim again, so its hard to tell whether he'll be at absolute peak for this, but if continuing progress should be thereabouts in the final stages. However, he is a prominent runner and has a high draw to overcome so there is that to consider also.

4. Sir Isaac Newton

A surprise supplementary addition to this race and it can only be assumed he is here to make pace for Highland Reel, Found and Minding, having run well in Group 1 company this season without ever looking like a winner at any point - others preferred.

5. Success Days

A consistent sort but really up against it in this company. Have to look elsewhere.

6. The Grey Gatsby

Non-runner.

7. Found

Ultra-consistent and seemingly has a superb engine as she bids to go through the whole season again as she did last year. Was second to Golden Horn last year which on the surface seems good form but probably was flattered by the winner jolting in the final furling. Has been 2nd in her last 4 starts but on form may struggle to hit the frame again today.

8. Almanzor
Impressive in France but will the form stack up?


Winner of the French derby. The form is really hard to assess given the trouble a lot of French trainers have had with illness this year. I suspect the form isn't as strong as the English or Irish equivalents which makes him a bit of a wildcard but one that we can probably ignore, especially given the low price.

9. Ebediyin

Pacemaker for stablemate Harzand

Two derbies and more to come for Harzand?
10. Harzand

Dual derby winner has to have a big chance. Has had a brilliant season and has been well rested since June. He will most likely be being readied for a tilt at the Arc and therefore the worry is whether he is fully wound up for this. I'm also not massively keen on his draw. We'll know how good the form of his last run was after seeing Idaho (who he beat by 1/2 a length) run in the St Leger and US Army Ranger in the Enterprise Stakes. First test against older horses so still has something to prove but could well do it.

11. Hawkbill
Hawkbill needs to bounce back from a poor Juddmonte run


Seems massively overpriced based on his poor showing in the Juddmonte and I'd be inclined to give him another chance especially as conditions will be back in his favour today. The Eclipse proved his potential against older horses and he has a nice draw. Would probably need a repeat of the Eclipse run but something close to that would have to see him in the frame.

12. Moonlight Magic

Should be outclassed by these.


Will exceptional filly Minding still have a career best in the tank?
13. Minding

The best filly of her generation and barring a defeat in a quagmire for the Irish Guineas has been flawless this season - but the question remains: what has she beaten? The form though looking good is yet to be tested against colts or older horses so remains an unknown. It is also questionable whether she'll be fresh for this having had a long season already but if having anything like the same constituency as Found she should be fine and a 10lb weight allowance over older colts has to be a plus.  In a straight head-to-head I'd marginally favour Harzand on form.