The Wandering Shrew - Prix De l'Arc De Triomphe Meeting Day 2 Preview

The world's richest turf race features on a stunning card at Chantilly with 6 group 1s to contest. The

Postponed bids for Arc glory

feature is the Arc in which Postponed bids to extend his unbeaten run to 7. He will have stiff competition from all angles notably super filly Found, Japanese raider Makihiki and dual derby winner Harzand. It is a great supporting card in which my personal feature is So Mi Dar's first trip out in Group 1 company in the Prix De l'Opera. Also, watch out for the Prix de l'Abbaye where Chantilly's 5f course finishes somewhere in the woods.

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:10 - Cavale Doree 6/1
1:45 - Kontrastat 15/8
2:20 - So Mi Dar 4/5 (So Mi Dar- Speedy Boarding forecast)
3:05 - Postponed 2/1

1-2-3 - Postponed - Found - Left Hand

4:35 -Profitable 7/1 e/w
5:15 - Limato 5/6

Shrew's Double: So Mi Dar & Limato to both win.

Race-by-race Guide

1:10 - Prix Marcel Boussac, 1m

A fairly average renewal of the Marcel Boussac where hopefully something can produce an eye-catching performance. Toulifaut has course form but also the car park draw in her bid to give Frankel a group 1 winner. Dabyah won easily at Newbury and is drawn next to her - both will likely aim to settle in midfield and I'd expect the latter to quicken the better of the two.

Promise to be True will need to bounce back from a disappointing run last time out but it isn't beyond her trainer to have horses bounce quickly back. Cavale Doree has a progressive profile and I expect more to come from her. Senga is an interesting one at a price for a trainer with a good record here.

1:45 - Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere (Garnd Criterium), 1m

Kontrastat looked really good last time out and that form makes him the one to beat. Salouen and King of Spades took a few more runs to get going and look quite exposed already. Whitecliffsofdover will likely step up on his last run and presents a challenge to the favourite and (although I'm always wary of O'Brien's second string) looks better than Utah on what we've seen so far. National Defense ran well in defeat here last time out but will have a job to do to overturn the favourite.

Thais is an odd supplementary entry and one to look out for if running better than expected here.

2:20 - Prix De l'Opera, 1m2f

The unbeaten So Mi Dar makes an overdue appearance in

group 1 company

So Mi Dar was the horse that this season really needed. Impressive in winning the Musidora Stakes she would've put up a real contest against Minding in the Oaks, but it wasn't to be with injury ruling her out until a return in September. Thankfully she looked herself and looked to have improved further upon return and I would be delighted to see her pick up this Group 1 prize before perhaps a trip to Ascot or the Breeders Cup to top the year off. Speedy Boarding seems next best.





3:05 - FEATURE RACE - Prix De l'Arc De Triomphe, 1m4f

1. New Bay

Ran a credible third in this race last year when beaten by Golden Horn. He has been hit by injuries this year and as a result hasn't looked quite up to the same level. His run into 4th latest in the Irish Champion Stakes showed promise that he is on the road to full fitness and has a favourable draw. Good place claims.

2. Postponed

Unfairly underrated by many having been winner of the last 4 Group 1's he's contested. The injury that made him miss the King George could be a blessing in disguise as he comes into this with less mileage on the clock than some of his rivals. His Juddmonte win over Highland Reel was promising but all of his best form is over 1m4f and a repeat of his Coronation Stakes 4 1/2 length win over found sets a real standard. This is the third time this season I have previewed a race featuring Postponed and my only objection has been his price. May be too short again but he is the one they all have to beat.

3. Migwar

Likely to be too much for him today.

4. Highland Reel

Reliable in Group 1 company to run his race and was very good when winning the King George. However, usually finds a few too good for him. His draw is not bad and has place claims.

5. One Foot In Heaven

Was underwhelming behind Silverwave in the trials here despite good win in June. Others preferred.

6. The Grey Gatsby

I still love this horse but now needs Lazarus levels of redemption to realistically feature.

7. Silverwave

Switched yards since last year's tenth and has also switched riding tactics to be up with the pace. It seems to have done the trick based on recent performances including a Prix Foy win. His draw means he's likely to get a good pace to follow behind Postponed, Harzand and New Bay who will all want to be in prominent positions. Whether he can go past them though is another matter and he may be vulnerable to late finishes from Found and Makihiki behind him also.

8. Order of St George

A wide draw at Chantilly isn't as bad as at Longchamp as the first bend comes fairly quickly and there's time to jostle for position after it but Frankie Dettori has a real job to do to get Order of St George into a good position. He will need to be in the lead well before the home straight where he can really put his staying credentials to use but whether he will have the raw speed to dominate against a field of horses of this quality who like to be in prominent positions is another matter. Wouldn't rule out another Dettori masterclass and I do absolutely love this horse - but wouldn't back it either.

9. Silijan's Saga

Feels like this horse has been around forever.. I think this is at least his 4th Arc - don't expect him to ever get closer than his 5th on first attempt.

10. Found

No one would begrudge Found victory in Europes richest race

Ultra consistent and ultra likeable filly who met all sorts of trouble in this race last year, which is the only time she's finished out of the frame. 2nd in 5 group 1's this year, she hasn't gotten her head in front in a Group 1 since beating Golden Horn at the Breeders Cup last year. Draw 12 isn't horrendous so long as Ryan Moore can keep her out of trouble, but she wouldn't want to be too far back - could be held by Postponed on Coronation Cup for though and maybe a place awaits again...

Can Harzand continue the success of Derby winners in this race?

11. Harzand

Really tricky to assess as part of me says this horse could be the winner. The weight allowance given to three year olds is generous in this race owing to a good record in recent years. I'm completely willing to forgive his Irish Champion Stakes run where he was struck into quite early on and was never really travelling after that. On ratings his Derby form puts him bang there but it is so difficult to make a case for either the English or Irish Derby form meaning anything. Certainly beating US Army Ranger does not amount to Arc winning form. I expect him to be prominent with Postponed and New Bay but needs to prove he's good enough.

12. Vedevani

Presumably a pacemaker for Harzand?

13. Talismanic

Under the radar but will need a big step up.

14. Makihiki

Makihiki will come late for the Japanese

We're told that this years Japanese crop of 3 year olds is way above average and this is the best of them. There was optimism that this could be the horse to lift the curse that appears to affect Japanese horses in this race until he was drawn 14/16. His Prix Neil form was given a boost by Doha Dream's win yesterday but like so many Japanese champions over the years he's likely to drop in to the rear or midfield by which point the ground he needs to make up may be too much. Think he has a chance but tactics will probably get the better of him.

15. Savoir Vivre

Lightly raced 3 year old will have a lot to do but seems versatile in running style. May be in contention for minor honours.

16. Left Hand

Taking the 'Treve route' to the Arc win winning the Vermielle in good fashion. The Juliet Rose held that form up well when winning yesterday. Again, waiting tactics aren't ideal but she wasn't far away from La Cressonniere here in June which is form to be taken seriously. Again, draw is not in her favour but could run a big race from deep.

Mecca's Angel bids to be champion sprinter

4:35 - Prix de l'Abbaye, 5f

Mecca's Angel is deservedly favourite following a second win of the Nunthorpe at York and has a favourites chance. However, he has not shown anywhere near the same level of form away from his home track so alternatives should be considered.

Goldream won this last year but hasn't looked as good in 2016. Take Cover is usually thereabouts in these races and hits the frame fairly regularly though Group 1 may be beyond him. Just Glamorous is on the up and was really impressive over course and distance in September and has to be considered over Marsha who he beat that day. I always like to see two year olds take on older horses but this may be too much too soon for Ardad.

Profitable is an undoubtedly better horse over 5f than 6 and had excuses at York when taking  a bump early in the race. He has twice beaten Mecca's Angel this term (albeit Mecca's didn't turn up at Ascot) and on that basis given a clear run has to be taken at the odds.

5:15 - Prix da la Foret, 7f

Limato can gain redemption for last year's defeat in this and is one of only a few with proven form over 7f. Suedois looks a good price to repeat his feat from the July Cup and follow him home if winning a battle for 2nd against Spectre.

The Wandering Shrew - Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe Weekend Day 1 Preview

The Arc meeting moves to Chantilly for 2016 with its short straight, tight turns and odd 5f course that finishes somewhere in the woods. Day 1 features the Prix Du Cadran for champion stayers supported by a card of 4 other group races all leading up to tomorrows action featuring 6 group 1's including the Arc itself. There will be an early clue as to how good topcontender Makahiki is as he prepares to give the Japanese a long awaited first Arc win when

Shrew's Shrewdies

Newmarket

4:00 - Volta 7/2

Chantilly

1:00 - Moonshiner 10/3

1:35 - Sotteville 6/1 (nb)

2:50 - Zarak 5/4 or Heshem 9/1 e/w

3:25 - Nearly Caught 6/1 or Vazirabad 11/10

4:12 - Taareef 9/2

Race-by-race Guide

1:00 Prix Chaudenay 1m7f

Doha Dream's latest third here behind Makahiki and Midterm reads as really good form having only been pipped on the line by Arc quality horses. However, for me he was showing no extra at the line and therefore there is a question over whether this step up in distance will fully suit - that said Andre Fabre probably knows what he's doing.... Either way he is too short for me

Marmelo and Peribsen have a short neck between them on previous form but seemingly have a lot to find on official ratings with the favourite and also Moonshiner who is the only one with proven distance form - he is on the up and may not need to improve much further to win this.

You'd assume Minamya and Gontchar are here for minor honours but there is so little known about the variations in form lines between this sextet that they could outrun their odds.

1:35 Prix de Royalieu, 1m4f

Probably one of the tighter races of the day. The Juliet Rose has good course form based on a third here last time out, however was only marginally ahead of Sotteville the previous time with not much between them. The latter having a longer rest before this and further improvement entirely possible.

Mango Tango ran well at this level last time out but was behind Impressionist the previous time at Saint-Cloud who in turn was quite a way behind The Juliet Rose at Deauville. The question for me then is whether Almela can win conceding weight to younger rivals. Too tight to call so I'll stick with Sotteville at an each way price.

2:50 Prix Dollar, 1m2f

Free Port Lux won this last year but is inconsistent at the best of times and doesn't at all have the same form coming into this as last year.

I think Zarak is a solid favourite based on his runs behind Almanzor and you'd expect that to be enough. Yorker is an interesting runner and lost nothing in defeat to Scottish and Quebee over distances shorter than ideal. I'd like the look of Heshem each way based on early season form. Didn't run to his best last time out in what was a classier field than this. Two wins at Chantilly make him in with a shout.

3:25 Prix Du Cadran, 2m4f

Vaziribad is one of the best stayers in the world and barring one below par run when dropped in trip at Saint-Cloud two starts out his form figures read 111-11111 back to July 2015. That includes a win here at Chantilly last time out. On that he should be hard to beat. He is drawn wide however and although that should be less of a problem over this distance than in middle distance races it will still require a good deal of strong jockeyship to get him up. His tendency to settle in rear means that if he is too far back coming into the home straight he might have too much to do against some of the more prominent horses of which there are plenty...

Vazirabad's prep run culminated in a win only by a short neck and though he probably wasn't fully wound up, some attention has to go to the second horse on that day, Nahual, who likes to lead - but again may struggle to do so from stall 12. That task should be easier for Quest for More and Nearly Caught who break out of stalls 8 and 6 respectively and both like to race prominently. Of the two Quest for More feels a little more exposed whereas Nearly Caught is still progressing. I don't think either of them have too much to find on Vazirabad and given the right fractions set in front I would expect them to give him a lot to do if they are far enough ahead turning for home.

Burmese is a really interesting runner. His 5th in the Ascot Gold Cup was promising but I'm not sure how much to rate that form. Course form is always worth mentioning though and Fly With Me is 2/2 here - is preferred as a big priced each way selection over Trip to Rhodos.

4:12 Prix Daniel Wilderstein, 1m

Moonlight Magic has been running in better class races than this in the UK and Ireland but the drop in trip seems an odd choice for the Cape Cross colt.

Taareef was second to Dicton here in April and both seem to have improving profiles for the end of the season. I don't think there will be as much between them as prices suggest.

This is a step up for Zayva who has claims on a good win here last time out. But may be too big an ask?