The Whistling Shrew Cheltenham Festival Preview 2019 - Day 4

Gold Cup Day and Native River bids for back-to-back success against the up and coming RSA winner Presenting Percy and King George winner Clan Des Obeaux. Should be a cracker.

It should be noted that where I can occasionally pick out a Triumph, Albert Bartlett, Gold Cup or Foxhunters winner my record on the Friday handicaps is about as bad as Apple's Jade in a Champion Hurdle...

Good luck and

Stay Shrewd

SHREW'S GOLD CUP DAY SHREWDIES

13:30 - The Triumph Hurdle, 2m (Grade 1) 

SIR EREC (NAP) is the most likely winner for Joseph O'Brien. His flat form is hard to beat having been only a few lengths down to super stayer Stadivarius in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. He jumps very well and will be hard to beat.

The same yard run Gardens of Babylon who was a decent second to Sir Erec last time up and a little way ahead of Tiger Tap Tap who isn't easily overlooked.

Gardens of Babylon has reversed places with Surin on three occasions this season and given that there's only a length between them each time I'd rather take the 33/1 each way on Surin than Babylon.

I love a Paul Nicholl's French import and Pic D'Orhy is the enigma in the race. I prefer the 'unknown' aspect of how good he might be over Quel Destin's admittedly good form.

1. Sir Erec  evs

2. Pic D'Orhy 10/1
3. Surin 33/1

14:10 - The County Handicap Hurdle, 2m1f

1. Monsieur Lecoq 9/1
2. Whiskey Sour 5/1
3. Western Ryder 14/1

14:50 -  Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, 3m (Grade 1)

Wide wide open race. Birchdale has pretty form but pretty horses don't win this race typically. It's a gruelling test for the novices and I'd be looking for one with grit and real staying power. Look for the ugliest looking bruiser in the paddock and you can't go far wrong (horse not the groom).

LISNAGAR OSCAR ticks that box as well as having good Cheltenham form and a wide margin victory over this distance at Haydock. Rebecca Curtis has a proven track record with producing big stayers and I think he looks most likely for this to suit. He was only just ahead of Dickie Diver at Chepstow on the latters maiden run over hurdles - but I'm more inclined to stick with the more experienced horse in a race like this.

Derrinross brings a similar level of form and characteristic from Ireland and will surely like this sort of test. Commander of Fleet is the shortest price Irish contender and is tied in with Rhinestone, neither of which have yet proven staying potential or come up against a test like this one.

Dinons has had a lot of runs which isn't a bad thing for this sort of race and had a lot of 1's next to his name, including one at Cheltenham, before flopping last time out.


1. Lisnagar Oscar 7/1
2. Derrinross 12/1
3. Dinons 12/1

15:30 - The Gold Cup, 3m2.5f (Grade 1)

This race either goes to a top class horse (think Kauto Star, Don Cossack, Imperial Commander, Sizing John, Long Run...) or a real gritty stayer (Think Synchronized, Lord Windermere...)Some years (Denman, Best Mate, Coneygree...) it requires a bit of both...

On this season's form, there is no doubt that Clan Des Obeaux is the class horse and I can easily see a scenario in which he wins. He's looked on the upgrade all year and his turn of foot to put them to the sword in the King George, notably with Thistlecrack just 1 1/2 lengths behind, took a lot of people by surprise. I think that's the best piece of staying form this year so far. There are some who are questioning the Cheltenham credentials of Clan Des Obeaux (and Thistlecrack) and I'm not sure I fully buy into this. Although he has never won here (Thistlecrack has over hurdles) he has posted an all time best rating at that stage of his career each time he has come here. Paul Nicholls knows how to train a Gold Cup winner, but he also trained Silviniaco Conti who could win a King George but never managed it on the biggest stage. The more I look at the King George the more I think the race really went his way with Bristol De Mai falling early. I think off a more consistently high tempo over this distance in this ground he might just get found out (same goes for Thistlecrack).

The eye-catching bit of that race for me was the horse finishing like a rocket to claim 3rd on a track that in no way suited him...I tipped my favourite horse in training NATIVE RIVER in 2017 when he was a good third, but abandoned him last year when he was a game winner. Despite my better judgement and his price being a bit too short (should be around 9/2), I'm going to tip him again! The ground has come up in his favour, with a bit of cut and as long as Richard Johnson gets the fractions right he has to be at least in the places. Might Bite has not been the same horse this year after trying to go with Native River last time and briefly heading him and I fear he'd do the same to Clan Des Obeaux.

In the same stable, Elegant Escape is taking the same route Native River did to his first Gold Cup attempt taking in the Hennessey (2nd) and Welsh National (1st). He is a real stayer and could easily place at a decent price if the race falls apart a bit.

The big question mark from the English form is Bristol De Mai. We know he transforms into an absolute monster at Haydock, where he had all three of the aforementioned horses in behind him this year, but his Cheltenham form is perhaps not as bad as it seems. He finished 7th in this as just a 6 year old and would've placed higher were it not for a mistake at the last. I think he looks a good price for a place but again, probably can't live with Native River around here.

The real threat to Native River's crown could come from the other side of the water and a horse whose trainer is so enigmatic he's developed cult status in Ireland. Presenting Percy was a brilliant winner of last years RSA having mocked the handicapper in the previous year's Pertemps final. Pat Kelly's strike rate at Cheltenham is staggering and it is for that reason that this horse is so short in the betting. The RSA is a great Gold Cup trial but the horse needs to show the best part of a stone's improvement to be on par with the best of these. Will he? We have no idea because he's only been seen once this year and that was over hurdles. Can I buy into the hype and mythical status of Pat Kelly as a trainer so enigmatic that jockey Davey Russell says he "doesn't even know where he lives"? Absolutely. Can I see Presenting Percy as being good enough to find the improvement to win this handsomely? Yes. Can I take a chance on that at 7/2? No, because I'm not mad. Could bolt up but is not for me.

Seems mad to have got this far without mentioning Willie Mullins who is still bidding for his first Gold Cup (Incidentally he is also yet to win a Champion Chase...) What he lacks in quality he's making up for in quantity by running quarter of the field.

Kemboy has become a bit of a winning machine since finishing 4th to Shattered Love in last year's JLT including twice over 3m. The second was a bit of a farce in the early stages and turned into a 1m sprint, though notably he beat Monalee by the same distance Presenting Percy beat Monalee in the RSA.... I don't think he'll stay. Shattered Love's form incidentally has taken a dip since winning that race. Could well run at a price for the longer distance but others preferred.

Al Boum Photo was one of the horses to beat Shattered Love this year and was an unlucky faller in the RSA behind Presenting Percy. He's bounced back with a couple of wins but nothing to get too excited about. Same could be said about Invitation Only who will stay well but not much else.

I prefer Bellshill of Willie's horses, who again has Cheltenham question marks but I think stays a lot better than these. He would've been an Irish National winner but for a weird incident at the last that caused him to drop suddenly to 5th. He has a lot of decent form over 3m+ trips and will give a good account of himself under Ruby Walsh.



1. Native River 3/1
2. Bellshill 12/1
3. Clan Des Obeaux 7/2
4. Elegant Escape 20/1
5. Bristol De Mai 33/1


16:10 - Fox Hunters Chase, 3m2f

1. Ucello Conti 5/1
2. Shantou Flyer 8/1
3. Haymount 25/1

16:50 - The Grand Annual Handicap Chase, 2m

1. Gino Trail 20/1
2. Caid Du Lin 9/1
3. Whatswrongwithyou 7/1

17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle, 2m4f

1. Cartwright 10/1
2. Dallas Des Pictons 7/2
3.Pym 12/1

The Whistling Shrew Cheltenham Festival Preview 2019 Day 3

Day 3

Before we get down to it, how about:

*For the sentimentalists only - The FAUGHEEN (Stayers) and UN DE SCEAUX (Ryanair) 11 year old legends double*

Stay Shrewd!


13:30 - JLT Novice Chase, 2m5f (Grade 1)

A pretty tight race in which 2017 Triumph winner Defi Du Seuil represents the most obvious chance for the English. He has been good over fences this season and backed up his good form when beating Lost In Translation at Sandown to reverse the placings from their previous meeting here in January.

Kildistart comes up from handicap company with some good form. He has a shot but I always prefer grade 1 proven form.

Vinndication could well improve for going left handed as he's seemed to jump out that way on all his other starts going clockwise. 

I'm surprised that Ruby Walsh has opted for Voix Du Reve (who is potentially overpriced) over REAL STEEL who has won two beginners chases easily by 10 lengths apiece. I suspect he found the Albert Bartlett a little too far last year and has looked very good chasing over the shorter distance.

Mengli Kahn could run well returned to Cheltenham and might be a good price for a place.

1. Real Steel 7/1
2, Defi Du Seuil 5/2
3. Vinndication 9/1

14:10 - Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle, 3m

1. NotWhatIAm 10/1

2. Cuneo 16/1

3. Sire Du Berlais 11/2

14:50 - Ryanair Chase, 2m5f (Grade 1)

I think this is a great race.

Favourite Frodon has been really good this year, improving on what was already reasonable form last year. This will be a real test to see if he's developed into a true Grade 1 performer. He was down the field here last year but has improved about 5-10lbs. I have a doubt about his late season form that stops me siding with him. I'm prepared to be wrong but will leave him at the price.

There are others with proven Grade 1 ability, one of whom is Monalee. I think this is his ideal trip and his staying power should suit the conditions. He was a good winner over 2m4f when beating Anibale Fly last time out and has good Cheltenham form based on his second to Presenting Percy.

Also stepping back in distance is ROAD TO RESPECT who hasn't run over a trip shorter than 3m since winning the 2m4f handicap here two years ago before following up with a victory over Yorkhill. His 4th place in last years Gold Cup was respectable and he's run well again over 3m this year, including when a head third behind Monalee. Conditions today will be more in his favour and I think his staying power will put him in good stead to win the race for the sponsors.

Former winner UN De Sceaux loves any dig in the ground. He is an absolute warrior and at 11 years old looked as good as ever when giving Altior a race at Sandown in December. This is longer than his ideal distance however.

He was beaten last year by Balko Des Flos who will probably like conditions again but was 43 lengths behind Road to Respect at Down Royal and about 19 lengths behind him at Leopardstown over 3m. I think this is a race with more back class than last year and expect him to find a few too good.

I'm not sure how well Footpad will stay the trip and his jumping here last year when winning the Arkle would have to be a worry. If he takes to it he could be the class act here but at the odds others are preferred.

1. Road to Respect 9/2
2. Monalee 7/1
3. Footpad 10/3

15:30 - Stayer's Hurdle, 3m (Grade 1)

On form, PAISLEY PARK has to be favourite but he's way to short to be an interesting bet. He logically ticks a lot of boxes despite being halfway down the field in last year's Albert Bartlett. This is a race where that form could easily come unstuck so I wouldn't be going in too heavy on him.

Former Champion Hurdle winner Faugheen has the obvious back class. He looked to be close to Apples Jade when last seen before taking a tumble. It would be a Sprinter Sacresque 'triumph over adversity' story if he can get up to win here but I just fear that 11 that he might be close to having had enough. I would love nothing more than to see him win but his price is naff.

Supersundae could do with a 2m4f hurdle being introduced to the festival but he's shown his versatility in winning Grade 1's over both 2m and 3m. The ground may be against him at a longer trip.

Barcadys is by no means out of this. He hasn't had the ideal preparation having failed to make the transition to chasing. No one better than Willie Mullins to get them back to where they need to be.

Kilbricken Storm and Black Op both bring in good novice form from last year's festival. Neither look to have made the jump up to the open class.

Top Notch is very interesting returning to hurdles for the second time this season and he was a good third behind West Approach and Paisley Park earlier in the year. I prefer him for an each way over West Approach.

1. Paisley Park 5/4
2. Bacardys 14/1
3. Top Notch 14/1 

16:10 - Brown Advisory Plate Handicap Chase, 2m4f

Usually a good race to bet in running. You need to be prominent on the stiff track otherwise there's usually little chance of getting in. Look who's travelling best in the front 7 or 8 after the first few fences and bet on them... otherwise:

1. Azzerti 16/1
2. Didero Vallis 20/1
3. Janika 5/1

16:50 - Mares Novice Hurdle, 2m (Grade 2) 

I think it's between the front 3 and I'd back POSH TRISH to end Willie Mullins' unbeaten run in this.

1. Posh Trish 4/1 

2. Epatante 6/4

3. Sinoria 7/1

17:30 - Kim Muir Chase, 3m2f

1. Touch Kick 22/1
2. It's All Guesswork 9/1
3. Measure of My Dreams 5/1

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival Preview 2019 - Day 2

Day 2 Preview

13:30 - The Ballymore Novice Hurdle, 2m5f (Grade 1)

Being named after Tony McCoy and being a Challow Hurdle winner makes it easy to see why Champ is favourite for this. Not to mention that he's quite a way clear on official ratings too. Challow Hurdle winners have a horrible record in this for some reason and it's enough to put me off. 

BATTLEOVERDOYEN is the standout hope for Ireland and the most obvious one to put it up to the favourite. His Grade 1 win gives him an excellent chance here.

Brewin'upastorm and Beakstown bring nice Grade 2 form here but may not be up to the standard required. City Island might fall into that camp too but remains unexposed. 

Easy Game looks like a nice each way selection and Ruby will be looking to vanish the memory of his last fence fall in the mares race yesterday. 

1. Battleoverdoyen 7/2

2. City Island 9/1
3. Brewin'upastorm 8/1

14:10 - The RSA Novice Chase, 3m (Grade 1)

I think DELTA WORK (NAP) could be the real deal. Since winning the Pertemps by a nose here last year he has really taken to chasing and has bagged two grade 1s en route, thrashing Mortal in doing so. 

Santini is undoubtedly a very good horse but his third in the Albert Bartlett last year and again in the Kauto Star chase over Christmas make me think he's destined to be placed again when coming up against a real grade 1 performed like Delta Work. 

Topofthegame is a more likely challenger. He was 2 lengths ahead of Santini at Kempton and also has Cheltenham form when just a neck 2nd in last years Coral Cup. Paul Nicholl's is having one hell of a season and I think this horse is the most likely challenger to Delta Work. 

On the Blind Side has a squeak but I think will be vulnerable to these provden Grade 1 performers. The same can be said for The Worlds End and the ground has probably gone against him. 

Now McGinty would probably be my each way selection if you prefer one at a price. 

1. Delta Work 13/8
2. Top of The Game 7/2
3. Santini 3/1

14:50 - The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle, 2m5f

Very hard to find the winner. Uradel looks well in towards the bottom of the weights but the price has gone a long time ago. He's one of six Willie Mullins runs as well as Wicklow Brave in the same colours who could outrun his price if returning to his grade 1 winning form.

Lil Rockerfeller, Apples Shakira and KILLULTAGH VIC also hold good Grade 1 form and would go well if recapturing it.

Ballyandy ran a good 4th back in the 2017 Suprme. A return to that sort of form off this weight would stand him in good stead but he was behind Brio Conti last time, who looks like he could be a smart prospect for Paul Nicholls.

Highest Sun is the joint youngest horse in the race alongside Farclas. Both have potential to improve. 

1. Killultagh Vic 14/1

2. Uradel 5/1

3. Brio Conti 10/1

15:30 - Queen Mother Champion Chase, 2m (Grade 1)

ALTIOR is the best horse in training and will make a historic 18th back to back victory over obstacles if winning here. It takes him to be markedly below form or something to go wrong to see any other result. Acts on good, soft and heavy, has dished out a beating to Min at the last three festivals. The only way to get him beat is to get a vast amount of distance in front coming down the hill. They had that last year and he looked in trouble turning in but when he gets to the second last then nothing can live with his turn of foot. 

You'd have to expect that Min will follow him in. The danger to the forecast is if Min pushes too hard to try and beat Altior and doesn't quite last home. In which case Sceaux Royal looks like he could pick up a place. Politolgoue is a classier horse but not necessarily over this course and distance. Ordinary World could outrun his odds. God's Own also deserves a mention and should run into the prize money for a 4th consecutive year for minor honours. 

1. Altior 2/5

2. Min 4/1

3. Sceaux Royal 9/1

16:10 - Cross Country Chase, 3m6f

Three time festival winner and Grand National hero TIGER ROLL made a brilliant return when winning over hurdles earlier in the season. His price is unsurprisingly a bit on the short side given the public following. It's a long race in which anything can happen but he remains the most likely winner off level weights. 

Tea for Two brings Grade 1 winning quality to the race and Auvergnat is more than good enough to give Tiger Roll something to think about. 

1. Tiger Roll - 11/10

2. Tea for Two 20/1

3. Auvergnat 6/1

16:50 - Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, 2m 

1. Lethal Steps 8/1
2. Ciel De Neige 11/1
3. Dogon 22/1

17:30 - Champion Bumper National Hunt Flat Race, 2m (Grade 1)

1. Envoi Allen 7/2
2. Master Debonair 12/1
3. Sempo 12/1

The Whistling Shrew's Cheltenham Preview 2019 - Day 1

It's Cheltenham and the Shrew is back with 4 days of previews and tips! A slightly condensed version this year due to time restrictions but hope you enjoy. I will write a short preview for each race with the selection(s) capitalised. For Example, "Grand National winner, TIGER ROLL bids to make it 4/4 at consecutive festivals".

Just for fun I will do a 1-2-3 in each race too. This is by no means a tip for a tricast!

Good Luck and Stay Shrewd

Shrews Shrewdies

13:30 - The Supreme Novice, 2m

A weak looking renewal of this that makes for quite an open race.

Of the English horses Al Dancer looks likely to go off favourite based on his Betfair Hurdle run. The race is usually a reasonable trial having been a prep for placed horses My Tent or Yours, Kalishnikov and Ballyandy despite not producing a winner in recent times. This renewal was weaker with many horses out for emergency flu vaccinations and I think at the price he still has something to prove.

The same could be said about Angel's Breath who bids to be only a 3rd winner in 25 years of this for Nicky Henderson. He was probably better than the bare fore when narrowly beaten in his last run but hitting a flat spot in the middle of the race would be a worry here and perhaps he was flattered a little by looking quick in the finish.

I prefer the form line of Elixir Du Nutz who would be an each way selection here at 8/1. He has won his last three, two of which were at Cheltenham beating Grand Sarcy and Itchy Feet in the process. He was however beaten by Thomas Darby earlier in the year. He's a strong front runner which may help, but may set him up to be vulnerable to hold up horses. His chance rides on his jockey being able to time the ride well in what are reportedly going to be testing wind conditions.

One who will be tracking the leader all the way around is KLASSICAL DREAM who Mullins has sent here instead of the Ballymore tomorrow. He has a lovely profile since coming to Ireland from France, taking a maiden hurdle before winning a Grade 1 narrowly to Aramon, who also deserves a lot of respect and is a Grade 1 winner himself. Of the two I think Klassical Dream is the less exposed and open to further improvement and is also the choice of the two for Ruby Walsh.

The one from leftfield here is Joseph O'Brien's Fakir D'oudairies who bids to be the first four year old since Hors La Loi to win this race. On official ratings he is well in when taking into consideration his weight allowance and has Cheltenham winning experience. It wouldn't be a surprise if he hit the frame but this will be an altogether tougher test than what he's encountered so far

1. Klassical Dream 5/1
2. Aramon 14/1
3. Elixir De Nutz 8/1

EDIT: Elixir De Nutz now a non-runner. Al Dancer for 3rd.
.

14:10 - The Arkle Novice Chase, 2m

Like the Supreme Novice, a weaker and open renewal, with the two best horses in this division out for the Festival. It will probably take a Grade 2 winning performance to land this. 

I really don't know what to make of it other than ORUNA and Us and Them look great value and that Hardline marginally looks to have the best form coming into it. Duc Des Genievres could be up to this but his price stinks. 

Lalor could win but is underpriced and has been way behind Oruna on two previous starts.

Same with Glen Forsa who should be more like 8/1 though he has a nice profile coming into this.

Kalishnikov has been disappointing this year but will relish the ground. Would increase his chances significantly if it rains a lot. 

1. Oruna 14/1

2. Hardline 9/2

3. Glen Forsa 7/2

14:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase, 3m

Minella Rocco is the class horse based on his Gold Cup second but his recent form is beyond bad. It wouldn't be unheard of for Jonjo to get one right for the day despite that, especially one in these silks, but others are preferred.

Mr Whitaker was a festival winner last year and will probably enjoy the step up to 3m. He is fairly high in the weights but should run well. Give me a Cooper is well campaigned and is a decent favourite. I don't like the odds much though. 

There are plenty of horses who have run well at Cheltenham in the past including Royal Vacation, Singlefarmpayment, Beware the Bear, O O Seven and last years winner Coo Star Sivola who I expect will run well again. All of them have a decent chance

Willie Mullins' Up for Review is probably the best of the three Irish runners, though Noble Endeavour is fascinating on only his 3rd run since placing in this 2 years ago. 

I'm going to take a chance however on an improving horse of Dan Skelton's, CRUCIAL ROLE who pulled up last year in the Albert Bartlett but walked out a wide margin winner over 2m6f last time out. Looks like he might enjoy a step up in trip based on his hurdles form. 

1. Crucial Role 14/1

2. Mr Whitaker 9/1

3. Coo Star Sivola 11/1

15:30 - The Champion Hurdle, 2m 

This is a fascinating contest with two brilliant mares set to take on two time champ Buveur D'Air in receipt of a 7lb allowance. Despite his form being nothing special this year, they will still need to dig deep to unseat him. Laurina could be anything and steps out of mares company for the first time. She may be the next Annie Power but will probably need to be close to that to win. She is built like a chaser and is a powerful horse - the price for me isn't enough to take the chance on her this time. 

I would rather side with APPLE'S JADE (NAP) who has been a long standing favourite of mine and this season she has absolutely blossomed winning 4 races (3 Grade 1's) by a combined distance of 73 lengths... For those new to racing, that's far. Moreover she's shown she can do it at 3m, 2.5m and 2m and has looked astonishing throughout. The one worry is her Cheltenham form which on the surface seems slightly below what she's achieved elsewhere. However, she had valid excuses when beaten in the mares race last year and I'd be willing to give her another chance. 

Both Buveur and Apple's are raw grit and I suspect in a driving finish it would come right down to the wire however I'm not sure Apple's Jade will give him that opportunity. Jack Kennedy can afford to push for home from the front a lot further out. She's had her races this year wrapped up before the last and it wouldn't surprise me if they all find her too hot to live with. 

Of the each way value, Melon would need to bounce back from a poor season to get involved again. Sharjah looks more likely and has a wicked turn of foot, though this ground may not see it to best effect. Verdana Blue lowered the colours of Buveur D'Air at Christmas. Espoir D'Allen I expect will find it too tough at this standard. 

1. Apple's Jade 9/4

2. Sharjah 12/1

3. Buveur D'Air 2/1f

16:10 - The Mares Hurdle 

Benie De Deuix seems to be the best horse in the race. That she hasn't run since winning this last year would be a concern were she not trained by Willie Mullins who pulled off the same feat with Quevega six times. But quite frankly her price is garbage. 

On official ratings she's only 1lb ahead of Limini and Good Time Tara. The former of whom just seems to not have the will to win despite always running her race and the latter who has been thrashed by Laurina but also quite a way behind STORMY IRELAND twice this season. Despite Ruby choosing Benie Des Dieux of the Mullins possibles, I'll stick with her at the prices. 

Roksana deserves a mention and would be a force to be reckoned with based on her 2nd in the Grand Sefton Grade 1 behind Santini last year and her handicap win of a fair weight at Newbury in a big field. Those performances would put her in good stead for a race like this. 

Mia's Storm is a very good horse but I'm not sure she'll be suited by this race. She's been seen to better effect over fences. Lady Buttons, Jester Jet and Momella all look like candidates to hit the frame at a decent price. 

1. Stormy Ireland 9/1

2. Roksana 7/1

3. Lady Buttons 11/2

16:50

1. A Plus Tard 6/1

2. Cubomania 12/1

3. Walt 16/1

17:30

1. Ballyward 5/2

2. Atlanta Ablaze 14/1

3. Discorama 6/1