Just for fun I will do a 1-2-3 in each race too. This is by no means a tip for a tricast!
Good Luck and Stay Shrewd
Shrews Shrewdies
13:30 - The Supreme Novice, 2m
A weak looking renewal of this that makes for quite an open race.
Of the English horses Al Dancer looks likely to go off favourite based on his Betfair Hurdle run. The race is usually a reasonable trial having been a prep for placed horses My Tent or Yours, Kalishnikov and Ballyandy despite not producing a winner in recent times. This renewal was weaker with many horses out for emergency flu vaccinations and I think at the price he still has something to prove.
The same could be said about Angel's Breath who bids to be only a 3rd winner in 25 years of this for Nicky Henderson. He was probably better than the bare fore when narrowly beaten in his last run but hitting a flat spot in the middle of the race would be a worry here and perhaps he was flattered a little by looking quick in the finish.
I prefer the form line of Elixir Du Nutz who would be an each way selection here at 8/1. He has won his last three, two of which were at Cheltenham beating Grand Sarcy and Itchy Feet in the process. He was however beaten by Thomas Darby earlier in the year. He's a strong front runner which may help, but may set him up to be vulnerable to hold up horses. His chance rides on his jockey being able to time the ride well in what are reportedly going to be testing wind conditions.
One who will be tracking the leader all the way around is KLASSICAL DREAM who Mullins has sent here instead of the Ballymore tomorrow. He has a lovely profile since coming to Ireland from France, taking a maiden hurdle before winning a Grade 1 narrowly to Aramon, who also deserves a lot of respect and is a Grade 1 winner himself. Of the two I think Klassical Dream is the less exposed and open to further improvement and is also the choice of the two for Ruby Walsh.
The one from leftfield here is Joseph O'Brien's Fakir D'oudairies who bids to be the first four year old since Hors La Loi to win this race. On official ratings he is well in when taking into consideration his weight allowance and has Cheltenham winning experience. It wouldn't be a surprise if he hit the frame but this will be an altogether tougher test than what he's encountered so far
1. Klassical Dream 5/1
2. Aramon 14/1
3. Elixir De Nutz 8/1
EDIT: Elixir De Nutz now a non-runner. Al Dancer for 3rd.
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14:10 - The Arkle Novice Chase, 2m
Like the Supreme Novice, a weaker and open renewal, with the two best horses in this division out for the Festival. It will probably take a Grade 2 winning performance to land this.
I really don't know what to make of it other than ORUNA and Us and Them look great value and that Hardline marginally looks to have the best form coming into it. Duc Des Genievres could be up to this but his price stinks.
Lalor could win but is underpriced and has been way behind Oruna on two previous starts.
Same with Glen Forsa who should be more like 8/1 though he has a nice profile coming into this.
Kalishnikov has been disappointing this year but will relish the ground. Would increase his chances significantly if it rains a lot.
1. Oruna 14/1
2. Hardline 9/2
3. Glen Forsa 7/2
14:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase, 3m
Minella Rocco is the class horse based on his Gold Cup second but his recent form is beyond bad. It wouldn't be unheard of for Jonjo to get one right for the day despite that, especially one in these silks, but others are preferred.
Mr Whitaker was a festival winner last year and will probably enjoy the step up to 3m. He is fairly high in the weights but should run well. Give me a Cooper is well campaigned and is a decent favourite. I don't like the odds much though.
There are plenty of horses who have run well at Cheltenham in the past including Royal Vacation, Singlefarmpayment, Beware the Bear, O O Seven and last years winner Coo Star Sivola who I expect will run well again. All of them have a decent chance
Willie Mullins' Up for Review is probably the best of the three Irish runners, though Noble Endeavour is fascinating on only his 3rd run since placing in this 2 years ago.
I'm going to take a chance however on an improving horse of Dan Skelton's, CRUCIAL ROLE who pulled up last year in the Albert Bartlett but walked out a wide margin winner over 2m6f last time out. Looks like he might enjoy a step up in trip based on his hurdles form.
1. Crucial Role 14/1
2. Mr Whitaker 9/1
3. Coo Star Sivola 11/1
15:30 - The Champion Hurdle, 2m
This is a fascinating contest with two brilliant mares set to take on two time champ Buveur D'Air in receipt of a 7lb allowance. Despite his form being nothing special this year, they will still need to dig deep to unseat him. Laurina could be anything and steps out of mares company for the first time. She may be the next Annie Power but will probably need to be close to that to win. She is built like a chaser and is a powerful horse - the price for me isn't enough to take the chance on her this time.
I would rather side with APPLE'S JADE (NAP) who has been a long standing favourite of mine and this season she has absolutely blossomed winning 4 races (3 Grade 1's) by a combined distance of 73 lengths... For those new to racing, that's far. Moreover she's shown she can do it at 3m, 2.5m and 2m and has looked astonishing throughout. The one worry is her Cheltenham form which on the surface seems slightly below what she's achieved elsewhere. However, she had valid excuses when beaten in the mares race last year and I'd be willing to give her another chance.
Both Buveur and Apple's are raw grit and I suspect in a driving finish it would come right down to the wire however I'm not sure Apple's Jade will give him that opportunity. Jack Kennedy can afford to push for home from the front a lot further out. She's had her races this year wrapped up before the last and it wouldn't surprise me if they all find her too hot to live with.
Of the each way value, Melon would need to bounce back from a poor season to get involved again. Sharjah looks more likely and has a wicked turn of foot, though this ground may not see it to best effect. Verdana Blue lowered the colours of Buveur D'Air at Christmas. Espoir D'Allen I expect will find it too tough at this standard.
1. Apple's Jade 9/4
2. Sharjah 12/1
3. Buveur D'Air 2/1f
16:10 - The Mares Hurdle
Benie De Deuix seems to be the best horse in the race. That she hasn't run since winning this last year would be a concern were she not trained by Willie Mullins who pulled off the same feat with Quevega six times. But quite frankly her price is garbage.
On official ratings she's only 1lb ahead of Limini and Good Time Tara. The former of whom just seems to not have the will to win despite always running her race and the latter who has been thrashed by Laurina but also quite a way behind STORMY IRELAND twice this season. Despite Ruby choosing Benie Des Dieux of the Mullins possibles, I'll stick with her at the prices.
Roksana deserves a mention and would be a force to be reckoned with based on her 2nd in the Grand Sefton Grade 1 behind Santini last year and her handicap win of a fair weight at Newbury in a big field. Those performances would put her in good stead for a race like this.
Mia's Storm is a very good horse but I'm not sure she'll be suited by this race. She's been seen to better effect over fences. Lady Buttons, Jester Jet and Momella all look like candidates to hit the frame at a decent price.
1. Stormy Ireland 9/1
2. Roksana 7/1
3. Lady Buttons 11/2
16:50
1. A Plus Tard 6/1
2. Cubomania 12/1
3. Walt 16/1
17:30
1. Ballyward 5/2
2. Atlanta Ablaze 14/1
3. Discorama 6/1
excellent - cheers Dan
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