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Tiger Roll beats Pleasant Company in a photo finish with Bless The Wings and Anibale Fly in 3rd and 4th
They are joined by 36 other hopefuls in the biggest race of all.
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Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. Anibale Fly
Obvious class and weighted as such. Strong running on second in the Gold Cup behind Al Boum Photo and 4th here last year is obviously good form. Slight concern that only 3 weeks off since Gold Cup run. Definite place claims.
2. Valtor
Interesting, but probably blew his handicap mark on Britiish debut before running moderately in the Cotswold Chase when pulling up behind Frodon. Others preferred but is probably overpriced at 50/1
3. Tiger Roll
Ridiculously likeable horse at a ridiculous price. Would love to see him do back-to-back Nationals. Needed a photo to call it last year and now carrying 6lb higher, albeit he looked imperious winning the Cross Country by 22 lengths cantering. Will want the ground to dry to help his chance. Obviously shortlisted but no betting prospect.
4. Outlander
Formerly a very classy horse and winner of 3 grade 1's before form has petered off significantly. One of two horses along with Don Poli sold before the race by Gigginstown which probably tells you what you need to know.
5. Don Poli
3rd in Don Cossacks Gold Cup. A big lovable boat who will love this distance and likely the jumping test but has shown nowhere near top form for a long long time now. Highly unlikely to figure but I would hope he'd at least get round.
6. Go Conquer
Veteran Handicapper who has won several times at 3m+. Thoroughly exposed but an interesting dark horse nonetheless
7. Mala Beach
Reasonable form in handicaps but also thoroughly exposed. Will probably get the trip but whether he'll have enough class is a different matter entirely.
8. Minella Rocco
Very very good on his day having been 2nd in the 2017 Gold Cup. Will want dryer ground to be seen to best effect which I'm not sure he'll get here. Not without a chance but more likely to be pulled up than to figure.
9. Lake View Lad
Represents owner of past winners and personal favourites Hedgehunter, Ballabriggs and Many Clouds
Ran well at Cheltenham (behind Vintage Clouds in the same colours) to show he's probably ahead of his handicap mark. Better off at the weights today. Was staying on well up the hill over the second longest distances he's ever run. I'd expect him to stay.
10. Pleasant Company
Forced Tiger Roll to a photo last year and over the old distance of 4m4f may well have beaten him. Conditions set to be similar and no doubt Willie Mullins has kept him away with this as his target. Taking the exact same prep as last year, with just as disappointing results in the run up but now carries and extra 7lb which may well be his downfall. Shortlisted, but ultimately better handicapped horses will be preferred.
11. Ballyoptic
Interesting contender. Was 2nd in Scottish National at the end of last year after a decent 4th in the RSA. Has not had a great season so far and has found little when asked in the Welsh National and at Haydock last time out. Undoubtedly a class horse and potentially less exposed than others, but will need to really take to this at second time of asking.
12. Dounikos
Also interesting and seems to be one you need to catch on the right day. Won a Grand National Trial in February fairly convincingly and could run well at a price.
13. Rathvinden
More often than not in the Grand National you see a couple of horses who tick all the boxes - proven class, proven stayer, likes the ground and has had a quiet slow preparation with this in mind. They either go very close or are out of the race before Bechers.
This horse has won the 4 miler at Cheltenham, ran well at Punchestown and then won the BobbyJo chase nicely on his only start this season. Willie Mullins will have him spot on for the day and he has to be fancied, but in the hustle and bustle will he be outmuscled by more battle hardened opponents?
14. One For Arthur
2017 winner and good to see him in the line-up but has shown none of the form since. Others preferred.
15. Rock the Kasbah
The Shareef may not like it but this horse will be bidding to give Richard Johnson his first winner at his 21st attempt at the National. Has decent form in staying handicaps though a little inconsistent. His best three runs at staying trips have come when the race was run at average pace, 17 and 20 seconds slow and I have a feeling he may be outpaced in this with the quick early tempo. Not certain he has the staying power of others in the case that he is a little way behind.
16. Warriors Tale
A Grand Sefton winner over these fences but pulled up in this last year. May go a bit better this time but suspect it won't be enough to really get involved.
17. Regal Encore
Came a distant 8th a couple of years ago. Is decent enough and will give a good spin round but others more likely.
18. Magic Light
I suspect he's not good enough and won't stay
19. A Toi Phil
Unproven stamina as a chaser but a decent enough 3m hurdler. Not the worst long-shot in the race but a lot remains unproven.
20. Jury Duty
Was favourite for the four miler at Cheltenham in 2018 (won by Rathvinden) but unseated when beaten 2 out. Has since ran well including a win over 3m2f last time out beating Mala Beach lengths. Is a hold up horse which would be a negative but not without a chance.
21. Noble Endeavour
Wreaks of untapped potential having twice placed at Cheltenham Festival. Had a long time on the sidelines before two mediocre midfield runs in the Becher and Ultima since. On best form would be a lovely weight for this but may still be on the path to recovery and it could be a little too soon.
22. Monbeg Notorious
Well beaten when stepping up to longer distances. Expect him to get round but others preferred.
23. Rameses De Teilee
Clear staying potential. Accurate jumper who jumps low which is great for economy but a bit of a worry when there's as many obstacles as he'll face today. That said, has never fallen. Is only a 7 year old which would buck a few trends but to my mind says he still has room to improve. Shortlsted.
24. Tea For Two
Low in the weights for a horse with Grade 1 winning form here. He'd need to put the whole season well behind him but the fences do occasionally spark a renewal of interest in a horse. Not unconsidered, but equally hard to be too optimistic on.
25. Just a Par
Good in big staying contests but tends to come up short here. Others have to be preferred,
26. Step Back
A lot of noise about this horse based on a good victory against Rock The Kasbah who reversed the places when they were 6th and 7th respectively at Chepstow Nothing to write home about on his next start when 6th at Warwick I imagine team Bradstock won't have had him fully wound up but I'd always rather side with one with proven consistent ability rather than one shrewdly campaigned for this race.
27. Ultragold
Acts well around these fences but likely to be found out by the distance. Pulled up in Cross Country when last seen. Candidate to finish but unlikely to hit frame.
28. Blow By Blow
Difficult to spot as one of 7 Gigginstown runners in the race and possibly even more difficult to fancy. Would be a shock winner.
29. Up For Review
Made a mistake in the Ultima and didn't really recover; probably better than the bare form. and certainly better of at the weights than Lake View Lad. Winning form is all in smaller fields. Considered but others may be preferable.
30. Singlefarmpayment
Can see him running well and it will annoy a whole lot of people if he does. Has a lot of seconds next to his name in big fields but Festival run was poor This test might perk him up a bit or he might hate it.
31. Vieux Lion Rouge
I feel like this horse has been in the last ten nationals but turns out it's only 3, finishing 9th, 6th and 7th. Expect a similar fate or worse today.
32. Valseur Lido
Very good horse back in the day but well beaten at Cheltenham and a long way behind Rathvinden in the Bobby Jo when in receipt of 8lbs. Was 8th last year but never really looked like going better. Will give Rachel Blackmore a good spin without featuring too heavily.
33. Vintage Clouds
Interesting and well handicapped based on Cheltenham run last time out. Was third behind Joe Farrell and Ballyoptic in the Scottish National. Clearly a dour stayer and is at a really nice weight. Shortlisted.
34. General Principle
Irish National win is the best form among some decent runs in large field long distance handicaps. Pulled up at Cheltenham which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it's not necessarily a bad thing either. Would be first to do Irish/English National double since NumberSixValverde
35. Livelovelaugh
Nothing to suggest he will stay despite midfield run in the Kim Muir. Probably a day our for Rich Ricci.
36. Walk in The Mill
Beecher Chase winner when beating Vieux Lion Rouge, Ultragold, Just a Par and Noble Endevaour. Has good form in the three times he's tried trips at 3m+ and he's only a little higher in the weights because of it. Has to be shortlisted.
37. Folsom Blue
Seems much a better horse in Ireland. Prepared to be proven wrong but other's preferred.
38. Captain Redbeard
Unseated last year - will hope to get further than the 7th fence this time. Decent horse but imagine won't stay well enough.
39. Bless The Wings
Brilliant horse through the years who is now 14. He was valiant in defeat when running on to a good 3rd here last year. No doubt this is his sort of race but has age caught up with him? Will certainly have a good spin round and not beyond him to run into minor honours again.
40. Joe Farrell
Scottish National winner so comes in with similar profile to 2013 winner Aurora's Encore off an equally low weight. Interesting.
Shortlist: Anibale Fly, Tiger Roll, Go Conquer, Lake View Lad, Pleasant Company, Rathvinden, Rock The Kasbah, Dounikos, Vintage Clouds, Jury Duty, Rameses De Tielles, Step Back, UP For Review, Singlefarmpayment, General Principle, Walk in the Mill, Bless the Wings, Joe Farrell.
Short Shortlist: Anibale Fly, Tiger Roll, Pleasant Company, Rathvinden, Rock the Kasbah, Rameses De Tielles, Walk In The Mill, Joe Farrell, Jury Duty, Vintage Clouds
SHREWS SHREWDIES
5 Against the Field (excluding Tiger Roll who is too short):
Rathvinden 10/1
Anibale Fly 14/1
Rameses De Tielles 25/1
Jury Duty 18/1
Joe Farrell 20/1
Shrew's Big Outsiders:
A Toi Phil 80/1, Go Conquer 50/1 or Ballyoptic 40/1
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