Friday, 13 March 2020

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 4



1:30 - Great race. Front 4 in the market look really strong. Would marginally prefer Solo who was a visually impressive Adonis winner though the official handicapper may have gone OTT. I can see Goshen and Allmankind fighting it out at the front and expending energy on it. Aspire Tower is a possible if bouncing back. A Wave of the Sea a decent each way price.

2:10 - Don't think I've ever picked the winner of this. Would give Saint Roi a good chance.

2:50 - Rameses De Tai is an unusual horse to have in this race insofar as he was a close second in a Welsh National. Will stay, will jump and will grind it out. Looks a good each way bet at the prices. Thyme Hill is a decent favourite off the back of a CD win. Irish form is complicated but I'd prefer Monkfish over latest exhibition and Fury Road. Janidl another interesting runner. Harry Senior also a nice price.

3:30 - Despite the stats of winners following up in this I don't see any reason to oppose Al Boum Photo based on the available form. At 3/1 he's still pretty good odds. But threats come from everywhere. Last year's RSA looked like decent form. I'd expect Delta Work to finish a little closer to Santini. Think Santini's chance depends on how the race is run. He's probably the best stayer in the field and I'd fancy him if it came down to a stamina test. Delta Work is slightly younger and open to improvement. he's done everything well this season but will need to improve again to challenge.

Kemboy has been behind Delta Work twice but did beat Al Boum Photo at Punchestown. Unseated in this last year and has generally underperformed at Cheltenham. The same could be said of dual King George winner Clan Des Obeaux who performs well enough here without hitting the peaks he does elsewhere. I think he might be a little overpriced due to memories of Silviniaco Conti failing to get up the hill time and time again.

Lost In Translation showed promise last year but has not had an ideal prep this season. Monalee, who was only beaten a head by Delta Work at Christmas is a nice price to hit the frame as is Bristol De Mai.

4:10 - Would love to see Don Poli run well! A lot of horses to like in this. Preference just about for former Gold Cup second Minella Rocco who is probably overpriced still. Shantou Flyer was second last year and has a great chance. He has (relative) youth on his side over Hazel Hill who beat him last year. Billaway interesting for the Mullins team.

4:50 - Don't think I've ever tipped the winner of this race either. I quite like Lisp or Ballywood e.w

5:30 - Don't know - Fav looks strong enough - Front View. The Bosses Oscar is each way shout.

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