The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 4

1:30 - Great race. Front 4 in the market look really strong. Would marginally prefer Solo who was a visually impressive Adonis winner though the official handicapper may have gone OTT. I can see Goshen and Allmankind fighting it out at the front and expending energy on it. Aspire Tower is a possible if bouncing back. A Wave of the Sea a decent each way price.

2:10 - Don't think I've ever picked the winner of this. Would give Saint Roi a good chance.

2:50 - Rameses De Tai is an unusual horse to have in this race insofar as he was a close second in a Welsh National. Will stay, will jump and will grind it out. Looks a good each way bet at the prices. Thyme Hill is a decent favourite off the back of a CD win. Irish form is complicated but I'd prefer Monkfish over latest exhibition and Fury Road. Janidl another interesting runner. Harry Senior also a nice price.

3:30 - Despite the stats of winners following up in this I don't see any reason to oppose Al Boum Photo based on the available form. At 3/1 he's still pretty good odds. But threats come from everywhere. Last year's RSA looked like decent form. I'd expect Delta Work to finish a little closer to Santini. Think Santini's chance depends on how the race is run. He's probably the best stayer in the field and I'd fancy him if it came down to a stamina test. Delta Work is slightly younger and open to improvement. he's done everything well this season but will need to improve again to challenge.

Kemboy has been behind Delta Work twice but did beat Al Boum Photo at Punchestown. Unseated in this last year and has generally underperformed at Cheltenham. The same could be said of dual King George winner Clan Des Obeaux who performs well enough here without hitting the peaks he does elsewhere. I think he might be a little overpriced due to memories of Silviniaco Conti failing to get up the hill time and time again.

Lost In Translation showed promise last year but has not had an ideal prep this season. Monalee, who was only beaten a head by Delta Work at Christmas is a nice price to hit the frame as is Bristol De Mai.

4:10 - Would love to see Don Poli run well! A lot of horses to like in this. Preference just about for former Gold Cup second Minella Rocco who is probably overpriced still. Shantou Flyer was second last year and has a great chance. He has (relative) youth on his side over Hazel Hill who beat him last year. Billaway interesting for the Mullins team.

4:50 - Don't think I've ever tipped the winner of this race either. I quite like Lisp or Ballywood e.w

5:30 - Don't know - Fav looks strong enough - Front View. The Bosses Oscar is each way shout.

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 3

Good racing yesterday. What a finish by Champ in the RSA! Envoi Allen looks something special and Politologue causes a huge upset in the Queen Mother (I was finally right about Defi De Seuil!). Tiger Roll ran well in defeat. Winner looked good. A third National looks beyond him but what a racehorse he's proved to be.

Thursday:

1:30 - Fascinating opener and I'd love to see Faugheen and Samcro battle it out. It's mad to think that Faugheen only won one Champion Hurdle such was his dominance in the division in the past. Last years third in the Supreme Itchy Feet is obvious threat as is fast improving Mr Fisher who I'd just about make my selection given stable form. Reserve Tank is a really interesting one each way who hasn't been seen since November but will improve bundles with a bit of sun on his back.

2:10 - Always difficult. Davy Russell has won this in his last three rides and The Storyteller is a very good horse so no surprise the market has found him as well as bumper winner Relegate. Such a big field I'd rather take one at a bigger price. Jatilwuh is interesting, as are Guitar Pete and Kilbricken Storm but I like the way A Great View has been plotted for this and he's the each way selection.

2:50 - I've been very strong on A Plus Tard for a while in this since his visually impressive win in the novice handicap last year was backed up with a grade 1 victory over Chacun Pour Soi. However, he has 4lbs to find on Min still and 2lb to find on Frodon. I'm not 100% convinced Min shows his very best form at Cheltenham. Frodon on the other hand has done little wrong this year, picking up a good grade 2 last time out and losing little in defeat to Lost In Translation in a gruelling Betfair Chase. I could see him repeating here although I can't shake the feeling he's vulnerable to a real Grade 1 performer. A Plus Tard is a tentative win selection assuming that as a 6 year old he continues to improve. I could see one of the three market principles flopping and Aso has always run well in this and looks a decent place bet at 25/1.


3:30 - Paisley Park looks leagues ahead. They tried every trick in the book to get him beat last time and he still won. The rest is a who's who of exposed 3m Hurdlers. I could see any one of Bacardys, L'Ami Serge, Penhill, Summerville Boy, City Island, Tobefair hitting the frame. Apples Jade wears headgear (I think for the first time?) but I feel she's lost enthusiasm for it. Each way selection would be either Emitom for Warren Greatrix who won this with Cole Harden (though his last run at Cheltenham was dire) or Ronald Pump who may not have the quality but is an unknown entity at this point.

4:10 - no strong fancy. I like Springtown Lake and Ben Dundee e/w

4:50 - Market usually finds the winner and it looks like it will be Minella Melody. with Willie Mullins' Concertista the obvious danger.

5:30 - Lot of good Amatuer riders in this nowadays. Again, market has found them. I'd give Milan Native or Diese Aba a go at prices.

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham 2020 Day 2

1:30 - Envoi Allen looks the real deal. Easywork would be my each way play, albeit form done no favours in yesterdays supreme
2:10 - Tight contest. Minella Indo looks to be fav based on his ALbert Bartlett win last year. Could see any one of 7 winning it. Slate House looks overpriced as do battleoverdoyen and Easy Game. Champ and Allaho probably underpriced. I'd back Copperhead.
2:50 - Lottery, but Dame De Compaigne decent favourite. Would probably back Black Tears if I had to pick one out
3:30 - Shame Altior isn't here.I'd take Chacun Pour Soi to beat Defi. That said, I tipped against Defi when he won the triumph and also the JLT so I'm probably missing something!
4:10 - No bet but hope Tiger Roll hoses up again. Great to see Might Bite and Yanworth trying these obstacles out
4:50 - I'd give Thyme White an each way chance in this one
5:30 - Appreciate It is stupidly short so I'd give Israel Champ and Ocean Wind an each way shot.

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 1

No time for a blog this year, but here are my selections:

1:30 - At prices: Abacadabras 6/1
2:10 - Notebook - 3/1
2:50 - Cobra De Mai 16/1 ew
3:30 - Cilaos Emery - 6/1
4:10 - Benie Des Deiux 8/13
4:50 - Beakstown 11/1
5:30 - Lord Du Mensil 13/2

The Whistling Shrew's World Famous Grand National Preview 2019

The Grand National Handicap Chase, 4m2 1/2f (Grade 3)

Tiger Roll beats Pleasant Company in a photo finish with Bless The Wings and Anibale Fly in 3rd and 4th 

They are joined by 36 other hopefuls in the biggest race of all. 

Runner-By-Runner Guide

1. Anibale Fly 

Obvious class and weighted as such. Strong running on second in the Gold Cup behind Al Boum Photo and 4th here last year is obviously good form. Slight concern that only 3 weeks off since Gold Cup run. Definite place claims. 

2. Valtor

Interesting, but probably blew his handicap mark on Britiish debut before running moderately in the Cotswold Chase  when pulling up behind Frodon. Others preferred but is probably overpriced at 50/1

3. Tiger Roll

Ridiculously likeable horse at a ridiculous price. Would love to see him do back-to-back Nationals. Needed a photo to call it last year and now carrying 6lb higher, albeit he looked imperious winning the Cross Country by 22 lengths cantering. Will want the ground to dry to help his chance. Obviously shortlisted but no betting prospect. 

4. Outlander

Formerly a very classy horse and winner of 3 grade 1's before form has petered off significantly. One of two horses along with Don Poli sold before the race by Gigginstown which probably tells you what you need to know. 

5. Don Poli

3rd in Don Cossacks Gold Cup. A big lovable boat who will love this distance and likely the jumping test but has shown nowhere near top form for a long long time now. Highly unlikely to figure but I would hope he'd at least get round. 

6. Go Conquer

Veteran Handicapper who has won several times at 3m+. Thoroughly exposed but an interesting dark horse nonetheless

7. Mala Beach

Reasonable form in handicaps but also thoroughly exposed. Will probably get the trip but whether he'll have enough class is a different matter entirely. 

8. Minella Rocco

Very very good on his day having been 2nd in the 2017 Gold Cup. Will want dryer ground to be seen to best effect which I'm not sure he'll get here. Not without a chance but more likely to be pulled up than to figure. 

9. Lake View Lad

Represents owner of past winners and personal favourites Hedgehunter, Ballabriggs and Many Clouds

Ran well at Cheltenham (behind Vintage Clouds in the same colours) to show he's probably ahead of his handicap mark. Better off at the weights today. Was staying on well up the hill over the second longest distances he's ever run. I'd expect him to stay. 

10. Pleasant Company

Forced Tiger Roll to a photo last year and over the old distance of 4m4f may well have beaten him. Conditions set to be similar and no doubt Willie Mullins has kept him away with this as his target. Taking the exact same prep as last year, with just as disappointing results in the run up but now carries and extra 7lb which may well be his downfall. Shortlisted, but ultimately better handicapped horses will be preferred. 

11. Ballyoptic

Interesting contender. Was 2nd in Scottish National at the end of last year after a decent 4th in the RSA. Has not had a great season so far and has found little when asked in the Welsh National and at Haydock last time out. Undoubtedly a class horse and potentially less exposed than others, but will need to really take to this at second time of asking.

12. Dounikos

Also interesting and seems to be one you need to catch on the right day. Won a Grand National Trial in February fairly convincingly and could run well at a price. 

13. Rathvinden 

More often than not in the Grand National you see a couple of horses who tick all the boxes - proven class, proven stayer, likes the ground and has had a quiet slow preparation with this in mind. They either go very close or are out of the race before Bechers. 

This horse has won the 4 miler at Cheltenham, ran well at Punchestown and then won the BobbyJo chase nicely on his only start this season. Willie Mullins will have him spot on for the day and he has to be fancied, but in the hustle and bustle will he be outmuscled by more battle hardened opponents? 

14. One For Arthur

2017 winner and good to see him in the line-up but has shown none of the form since. Others preferred. 

15. Rock the Kasbah

The Shareef may not like it but this horse will be bidding to give Richard Johnson his first winner at his 21st attempt at the National. Has decent form in staying handicaps though a little inconsistent. His best three runs at staying trips have come when the race was run at average pace, 17 and 20 seconds slow and I have a feeling he may be outpaced in this with the quick early tempo. Not certain he has the staying power of others in the case that he is a little way behind. 

16. Warriors Tale

A Grand Sefton winner over these fences but pulled up in this last year. May go a bit better this time but suspect it won't be enough to really get involved. 

17. Regal Encore

Came a distant 8th a couple of years ago. Is decent enough and will give a good spin round but others more likely. 

18. Magic Light

I suspect he's not good enough and won't stay

19. A Toi Phil

Unproven stamina as a chaser but a decent enough 3m hurdler. Not the worst long-shot in the race but a lot remains unproven. 

20. Jury Duty

Was favourite for the four miler at Cheltenham in 2018 (won by Rathvinden) but unseated when beaten 2 out. Has since ran well including a win over 3m2f last time out beating Mala Beach  lengths. Is a hold up horse which would be a negative but not without a chance. 

21. Noble Endeavour 

Wreaks of untapped potential having twice placed at Cheltenham Festival. Had a long time on the sidelines before two mediocre midfield runs in the Becher and Ultima since. On best form would be a lovely weight for this but may still be on the path to recovery and it could be a little too soon. 

22. Monbeg Notorious

Well beaten when stepping up to longer distances. Expect him to get round but others preferred. 

23. Rameses De Teilee

Clear staying potential. Accurate jumper who jumps low which is great for economy but a bit of a worry when there's as many obstacles as he'll face today. That said, has never fallen. Is only a 7 year old which would buck a few trends but to my mind says he still has room to improve. Shortlsted. 

24. Tea For Two

Low in the weights for a horse with Grade 1 winning form here. He'd need to put the whole season well behind him but the fences do occasionally spark a renewal of interest in a horse. Not unconsidered, but equally hard to be too optimistic on. 

25. Just a Par

Good in big staying contests but tends to come up short here. Others have to be preferred, 

26. Step Back 

A lot of noise about this horse based on a good victory against Rock The Kasbah who reversed the places when they were 6th and 7th respectively at Chepstow Nothing to write home about on his next start when 6th at Warwick I imagine team Bradstock won't have had him fully wound up but I'd always rather side with one with proven consistent ability rather than one shrewdly campaigned for this race. 

27. Ultragold

Acts well around these fences but likely to be found out by the distance. Pulled up in Cross Country when last seen. Candidate to finish but unlikely to hit frame. 

28. Blow By Blow

Difficult to spot as one of 7 Gigginstown runners in the race and possibly even more difficult to fancy. Would be a shock winner. 

29. Up For Review

Made a mistake in the Ultima and didn't really recover; probably better than the bare form. and certainly better of at the weights than Lake View Lad. Winning form is all in smaller fields. Considered but others may be preferable. 

30. Singlefarmpayment

Can see him running well and it will annoy a whole lot of people if he does. Has a lot of seconds next to his name in big fields but Festival run was poor This test might perk him up a bit or he might hate it. 

31. Vieux Lion Rouge

I feel like this horse has been in the last ten nationals but turns out it's only 3, finishing 9th, 6th and 7th. Expect a similar fate or worse today.

32. Valseur Lido

Very good horse back in the day but well beaten at Cheltenham and a long way behind Rathvinden in the Bobby Jo when in receipt of 8lbs. Was 8th last year but never really looked like going better. Will give Rachel Blackmore a good spin without featuring too heavily. 

33. Vintage Clouds

Interesting and well handicapped based on Cheltenham run last time out. Was third behind Joe Farrell and Ballyoptic in the Scottish National. Clearly a dour stayer and is at a really nice weight. Shortlisted.

34. General Principle

Irish National win is the best form among some decent runs in large field long distance handicaps. Pulled up at Cheltenham which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it's not necessarily a bad thing either. Would be first to do Irish/English National double since NumberSixValverde

35. Livelovelaugh

Nothing to suggest he will stay despite midfield run in the Kim Muir. Probably a day our for Rich Ricci. 

36. Walk in The Mill

Beecher Chase winner when beating Vieux Lion Rouge, Ultragold, Just a Par and Noble Endevaour. Has good form in the three times he's tried trips at 3m+ and he's only a little higher in the weights because of it. Has to be shortlisted. 

37. Folsom Blue

Seems much a better horse in Ireland. Prepared to be proven wrong but other's preferred. 

38. Captain Redbeard

Unseated last year - will hope to get further than the 7th fence this time. Decent horse but imagine won't stay well enough. 

39. Bless The Wings

Brilliant horse through the years who is now 14. He was valiant in defeat when running on to a good 3rd here last year. No doubt this is his sort of race but has age caught up with him? Will certainly have a good spin round and not beyond him to run into minor honours again. 

40. Joe Farrell

Scottish National winner so comes in with similar profile to 2013 winner Aurora's Encore off an equally low weight. Interesting. 

Shortlist: Anibale Fly, Tiger Roll, Go Conquer, Lake View Lad, Pleasant Company, Rathvinden, Rock The Kasbah, Dounikos, Vintage Clouds, Jury Duty, Rameses De Tielles, Step Back,  UP For Review, Singlefarmpayment, General Principle, Walk in the Mill, Bless the Wings, Joe Farrell. 

Short Shortlist: Anibale Fly, Tiger Roll, Pleasant Company, Rathvinden, Rock the Kasbah, Rameses De Tielles, Walk In The Mill, Joe Farrell, Jury Duty, Vintage Clouds

SHREWS SHREWDIES

5 Against the Field (excluding Tiger Roll who is too short): 

Rathvinden 10/1

Anibale Fly 14/1

Rameses De Tielles 25/1

Jury Duty 18/1

Joe Farrell 20/1

Shrew's Big Outsiders: 

A Toi Phil 80/1, Go Conquer 50/1 or Ballyoptic 40/1

The Whistling Shrew Cheltenham Festival Preview 2019 - Day 4

Gold Cup Day and Native River bids for back-to-back success against the up and coming RSA winner Presenting Percy and King George winner Clan Des Obeaux. Should be a cracker.

It should be noted that where I can occasionally pick out a Triumph, Albert Bartlett, Gold Cup or Foxhunters winner my record on the Friday handicaps is about as bad as Apple's Jade in a Champion Hurdle...

Good luck and

Stay Shrewd

SHREW'S GOLD CUP DAY SHREWDIES

13:30 - The Triumph Hurdle, 2m (Grade 1) 

SIR EREC (NAP) is the most likely winner for Joseph O'Brien. His flat form is hard to beat having been only a few lengths down to super stayer Stadivarius in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. He jumps very well and will be hard to beat.

The same yard run Gardens of Babylon who was a decent second to Sir Erec last time up and a little way ahead of Tiger Tap Tap who isn't easily overlooked.

Gardens of Babylon has reversed places with Surin on three occasions this season and given that there's only a length between them each time I'd rather take the 33/1 each way on Surin than Babylon.

I love a Paul Nicholl's French import and Pic D'Orhy is the enigma in the race. I prefer the 'unknown' aspect of how good he might be over Quel Destin's admittedly good form.

1. Sir Erec  evs

2. Pic D'Orhy 10/1
3. Surin 33/1

14:10 - The County Handicap Hurdle, 2m1f

1. Monsieur Lecoq 9/1
2. Whiskey Sour 5/1
3. Western Ryder 14/1

14:50 -  Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, 3m (Grade 1)

Wide wide open race. Birchdale has pretty form but pretty horses don't win this race typically. It's a gruelling test for the novices and I'd be looking for one with grit and real staying power. Look for the ugliest looking bruiser in the paddock and you can't go far wrong (horse not the groom).

LISNAGAR OSCAR ticks that box as well as having good Cheltenham form and a wide margin victory over this distance at Haydock. Rebecca Curtis has a proven track record with producing big stayers and I think he looks most likely for this to suit. He was only just ahead of Dickie Diver at Chepstow on the latters maiden run over hurdles - but I'm more inclined to stick with the more experienced horse in a race like this.

Derrinross brings a similar level of form and characteristic from Ireland and will surely like this sort of test. Commander of Fleet is the shortest price Irish contender and is tied in with Rhinestone, neither of which have yet proven staying potential or come up against a test like this one.

Dinons has had a lot of runs which isn't a bad thing for this sort of race and had a lot of 1's next to his name, including one at Cheltenham, before flopping last time out.


1. Lisnagar Oscar 7/1
2. Derrinross 12/1
3. Dinons 12/1

15:30 - The Gold Cup, 3m2.5f (Grade 1)

This race either goes to a top class horse (think Kauto Star, Don Cossack, Imperial Commander, Sizing John, Long Run...) or a real gritty stayer (Think Synchronized, Lord Windermere...)Some years (Denman, Best Mate, Coneygree...) it requires a bit of both...

On this season's form, there is no doubt that Clan Des Obeaux is the class horse and I can easily see a scenario in which he wins. He's looked on the upgrade all year and his turn of foot to put them to the sword in the King George, notably with Thistlecrack just 1 1/2 lengths behind, took a lot of people by surprise. I think that's the best piece of staying form this year so far. There are some who are questioning the Cheltenham credentials of Clan Des Obeaux (and Thistlecrack) and I'm not sure I fully buy into this. Although he has never won here (Thistlecrack has over hurdles) he has posted an all time best rating at that stage of his career each time he has come here. Paul Nicholls knows how to train a Gold Cup winner, but he also trained Silviniaco Conti who could win a King George but never managed it on the biggest stage. The more I look at the King George the more I think the race really went his way with Bristol De Mai falling early. I think off a more consistently high tempo over this distance in this ground he might just get found out (same goes for Thistlecrack).

The eye-catching bit of that race for me was the horse finishing like a rocket to claim 3rd on a track that in no way suited him...I tipped my favourite horse in training NATIVE RIVER in 2017 when he was a good third, but abandoned him last year when he was a game winner. Despite my better judgement and his price being a bit too short (should be around 9/2), I'm going to tip him again! The ground has come up in his favour, with a bit of cut and as long as Richard Johnson gets the fractions right he has to be at least in the places. Might Bite has not been the same horse this year after trying to go with Native River last time and briefly heading him and I fear he'd do the same to Clan Des Obeaux.

In the same stable, Elegant Escape is taking the same route Native River did to his first Gold Cup attempt taking in the Hennessey (2nd) and Welsh National (1st). He is a real stayer and could easily place at a decent price if the race falls apart a bit.

The big question mark from the English form is Bristol De Mai. We know he transforms into an absolute monster at Haydock, where he had all three of the aforementioned horses in behind him this year, but his Cheltenham form is perhaps not as bad as it seems. He finished 7th in this as just a 6 year old and would've placed higher were it not for a mistake at the last. I think he looks a good price for a place but again, probably can't live with Native River around here.

The real threat to Native River's crown could come from the other side of the water and a horse whose trainer is so enigmatic he's developed cult status in Ireland. Presenting Percy was a brilliant winner of last years RSA having mocked the handicapper in the previous year's Pertemps final. Pat Kelly's strike rate at Cheltenham is staggering and it is for that reason that this horse is so short in the betting. The RSA is a great Gold Cup trial but the horse needs to show the best part of a stone's improvement to be on par with the best of these. Will he? We have no idea because he's only been seen once this year and that was over hurdles. Can I buy into the hype and mythical status of Pat Kelly as a trainer so enigmatic that jockey Davey Russell says he "doesn't even know where he lives"? Absolutely. Can I see Presenting Percy as being good enough to find the improvement to win this handsomely? Yes. Can I take a chance on that at 7/2? No, because I'm not mad. Could bolt up but is not for me.

Seems mad to have got this far without mentioning Willie Mullins who is still bidding for his first Gold Cup (Incidentally he is also yet to win a Champion Chase...) What he lacks in quality he's making up for in quantity by running quarter of the field.

Kemboy has become a bit of a winning machine since finishing 4th to Shattered Love in last year's JLT including twice over 3m. The second was a bit of a farce in the early stages and turned into a 1m sprint, though notably he beat Monalee by the same distance Presenting Percy beat Monalee in the RSA.... I don't think he'll stay. Shattered Love's form incidentally has taken a dip since winning that race. Could well run at a price for the longer distance but others preferred.

Al Boum Photo was one of the horses to beat Shattered Love this year and was an unlucky faller in the RSA behind Presenting Percy. He's bounced back with a couple of wins but nothing to get too excited about. Same could be said about Invitation Only who will stay well but not much else.

I prefer Bellshill of Willie's horses, who again has Cheltenham question marks but I think stays a lot better than these. He would've been an Irish National winner but for a weird incident at the last that caused him to drop suddenly to 5th. He has a lot of decent form over 3m+ trips and will give a good account of himself under Ruby Walsh.



1. Native River 3/1
2. Bellshill 12/1
3. Clan Des Obeaux 7/2
4. Elegant Escape 20/1
5. Bristol De Mai 33/1


16:10 - Fox Hunters Chase, 3m2f

1. Ucello Conti 5/1
2. Shantou Flyer 8/1
3. Haymount 25/1

16:50 - The Grand Annual Handicap Chase, 2m

1. Gino Trail 20/1
2. Caid Du Lin 9/1
3. Whatswrongwithyou 7/1

17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle, 2m4f

1. Cartwright 10/1
2. Dallas Des Pictons 7/2
3.Pym 12/1

The Whistling Shrew Cheltenham Festival Preview 2019 Day 3

Day 3

Before we get down to it, how about:

*For the sentimentalists only - The FAUGHEEN (Stayers) and UN DE SCEAUX (Ryanair) 11 year old legends double*

Stay Shrewd!


13:30 - JLT Novice Chase, 2m5f (Grade 1)

A pretty tight race in which 2017 Triumph winner Defi Du Seuil represents the most obvious chance for the English. He has been good over fences this season and backed up his good form when beating Lost In Translation at Sandown to reverse the placings from their previous meeting here in January.

Kildistart comes up from handicap company with some good form. He has a shot but I always prefer grade 1 proven form.

Vinndication could well improve for going left handed as he's seemed to jump out that way on all his other starts going clockwise. 

I'm surprised that Ruby Walsh has opted for Voix Du Reve (who is potentially overpriced) over REAL STEEL who has won two beginners chases easily by 10 lengths apiece. I suspect he found the Albert Bartlett a little too far last year and has looked very good chasing over the shorter distance.

Mengli Kahn could run well returned to Cheltenham and might be a good price for a place.

1. Real Steel 7/1
2, Defi Du Seuil 5/2
3. Vinndication 9/1

14:10 - Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle, 3m

1. NotWhatIAm 10/1

2. Cuneo 16/1

3. Sire Du Berlais 11/2

14:50 - Ryanair Chase, 2m5f (Grade 1)

I think this is a great race.

Favourite Frodon has been really good this year, improving on what was already reasonable form last year. This will be a real test to see if he's developed into a true Grade 1 performer. He was down the field here last year but has improved about 5-10lbs. I have a doubt about his late season form that stops me siding with him. I'm prepared to be wrong but will leave him at the price.

There are others with proven Grade 1 ability, one of whom is Monalee. I think this is his ideal trip and his staying power should suit the conditions. He was a good winner over 2m4f when beating Anibale Fly last time out and has good Cheltenham form based on his second to Presenting Percy.

Also stepping back in distance is ROAD TO RESPECT who hasn't run over a trip shorter than 3m since winning the 2m4f handicap here two years ago before following up with a victory over Yorkhill. His 4th place in last years Gold Cup was respectable and he's run well again over 3m this year, including when a head third behind Monalee. Conditions today will be more in his favour and I think his staying power will put him in good stead to win the race for the sponsors.

Former winner UN De Sceaux loves any dig in the ground. He is an absolute warrior and at 11 years old looked as good as ever when giving Altior a race at Sandown in December. This is longer than his ideal distance however.

He was beaten last year by Balko Des Flos who will probably like conditions again but was 43 lengths behind Road to Respect at Down Royal and about 19 lengths behind him at Leopardstown over 3m. I think this is a race with more back class than last year and expect him to find a few too good.

I'm not sure how well Footpad will stay the trip and his jumping here last year when winning the Arkle would have to be a worry. If he takes to it he could be the class act here but at the odds others are preferred.

1. Road to Respect 9/2
2. Monalee 7/1
3. Footpad 10/3

15:30 - Stayer's Hurdle, 3m (Grade 1)

On form, PAISLEY PARK has to be favourite but he's way to short to be an interesting bet. He logically ticks a lot of boxes despite being halfway down the field in last year's Albert Bartlett. This is a race where that form could easily come unstuck so I wouldn't be going in too heavy on him.

Former Champion Hurdle winner Faugheen has the obvious back class. He looked to be close to Apples Jade when last seen before taking a tumble. It would be a Sprinter Sacresque 'triumph over adversity' story if he can get up to win here but I just fear that 11 that he might be close to having had enough. I would love nothing more than to see him win but his price is naff.

Supersundae could do with a 2m4f hurdle being introduced to the festival but he's shown his versatility in winning Grade 1's over both 2m and 3m. The ground may be against him at a longer trip.

Barcadys is by no means out of this. He hasn't had the ideal preparation having failed to make the transition to chasing. No one better than Willie Mullins to get them back to where they need to be.

Kilbricken Storm and Black Op both bring in good novice form from last year's festival. Neither look to have made the jump up to the open class.

Top Notch is very interesting returning to hurdles for the second time this season and he was a good third behind West Approach and Paisley Park earlier in the year. I prefer him for an each way over West Approach.

1. Paisley Park 5/4
2. Bacardys 14/1
3. Top Notch 14/1 

16:10 - Brown Advisory Plate Handicap Chase, 2m4f

Usually a good race to bet in running. You need to be prominent on the stiff track otherwise there's usually little chance of getting in. Look who's travelling best in the front 7 or 8 after the first few fences and bet on them... otherwise:

1. Azzerti 16/1
2. Didero Vallis 20/1
3. Janika 5/1

16:50 - Mares Novice Hurdle, 2m (Grade 2) 

I think it's between the front 3 and I'd back POSH TRISH to end Willie Mullins' unbeaten run in this.

1. Posh Trish 4/1 

2. Epatante 6/4

3. Sinoria 7/1

17:30 - Kim Muir Chase, 3m2f

1. Touch Kick 22/1
2. It's All Guesswork 9/1
3. Measure of My Dreams 5/1