The Whistling Shrew - Ebor Festival Day 4 Preview

York - Day 4 Ebor Festival Preview


Shrews Shrewdies


1:45 - Ode to Evening 10/1 e.w. and Scarlet Dragon 7/1
2:15 -  Educate 10/1 e.w
2:50 - Master Blueyes 9/1 e.w.
3:25 - Dream of Dreams 9/1 e.w. or Intelligence Cross 9/1 e.w
4:00  She is no Lady 8/1, Heartbreak City 8/1 or Kinema 10/1.
4:35 - Sutter County 5/2


Shrew's WILDCARDs: 2:15 Yorker 14/1 and 4:00 Shrewd 11/1


Race-By-Race Guide


1:45
It looks like there will be at least 16 going to post for this so 4 places up for grabs each way. Of the market principles Dark Red looked to be on a good run before reaching a plateau when last seen at Epsom in June when beaten by Imshivalla another of whom's form has dropped off since. Snoano seems to be a consistent sort although form over 10f is relatively poor against his 12f form. Erik the Red will probably not enjoy this ground much. Chancery has been out of sorts for a long while but a market move from 16/1 into 7/1 is tough to ignore but I will anyway.


Scarlet Dragon is a fast improving horse and is up 6lbs after a close 4th last time out. Ode to Evening was second that day and is now 3lbs higher however a draw in stall one and a strong galloping track may put his staying credentials to good use. He is one of three Mark Johnston horses and I prefer him to Sennockian Star who has poor form at York.
I could see Batallion also running well here at the top of the weights.


2:15
This is a really nice Group 3 with several proven performers including 2014 winner Custom Cut. He is a consistent performer but gets his head in front far less these days and was beaten earlier in the year by another seasoned campaigned in Tulius who is now off a 9lb higher weight vs Custom Cut than that day. Both will likely have a better chance than the legend that is Gabrial on his 55th career start. The ground will likely be against Air Pilot today. Educate posted a career best last time out over this course, but that was in a big field handicap and todays test will be different. He looks a decent each way price though.


Scottish is a horse with a lot of enthusiasm behind him but was a beaten favourite at Haydock last time out and his Newbury form in beating Trip to Paris didn't stack up yesterday. Diploma is also on the up but form under 1m2f is underwhelming thus far - remains unproven although price suggests there's confidence behind her. I think this is a big ask against the colts.


Yorker is a big unknown having come over from South Africa and being over 400 days without a run. Haggas' record in bringing back horses from long breaks has to be respected and if he is on form then he is officially top rated in the race. and therefore he may be the wildcard in the bunch!


2:50
Effectively the Ebor for three year olds this could be a bit of a lottery (as the betting suggests). There was hardly anything between Shraaoh, Emperor Napoleon, Jameeh and Master Blueyes at Goodwood. Of them Shraaoh and Master Blueyes seemed to be staying on the best towards the end and would have to be fancied over a longer trip.


Kellstorm is a brother to Order of St George and that is good enough to make him fancied. He seems to be fairly level on form with Regal Monarch who has improved with each run up until now but is penalised for a win on Sunday. I could see Forth Bridge developing into a strong stayer over time and he may be well placed in first start in handicap company.


3:25
On paper this should be an easy win for Blue Point and so it may prove. He has about 4lbs on the rest of the field. Mokarris and Mubtasim pose the obvious threats but all form has been on good to firm ground and may therefore be unreliable which makes me prefer more heavily campaigned horses.


The Last Lion I would have like but his form (and the form of Global Applause) ties in with Yalta who was last in the Nunthorpe yesterday so is hard to fancy.Dream of Dreams seems to be a little more battle hardened than some of these which I think counts for a lot and I'd be willing to have him against the field. Intelligence Cross has some decent form behind Mehmas and may also come here with a little more experience under the belt.


Ardad will come into the picture if the going turns to soft.


4:00, Ebor Handicap, 1m6f
In recent years the standard of horses has greatly increased in this race to now have one of the strongest handicap fields on offer, which in turn gives horses at the top of the weights a better chance than before. It is hard to find too many holes in favourite and Northumberland Plate winner Antiquarium who also ran a good 5th here during last years festival. Kinema is another with good form coming into this and could go well dropped back to handicap company.


Top Tug is well handicapped and has some nice course form but didn't look to be staying over 1m4f here last time. There's a lot to like about Heartbreak City though and Tony Martin could have him absolutely primed for this.


Shrewd is always going to be a favourite of the Shrew with a name like that and he has some decent form behind him on previous runs at York, finishing just behind Friday winner Quest for More last time out. May be a bit high in the weights but is worth a shout. She is no Lady looks progressive and could be off of a really nice weight here if continuing her upward curve.

The Whistling Shrew - York Ebor Festival Preview - Days 1 and 2

The Ebor Festival showcases many of the best races on the calendar with The International taking centre stage on Day 1, taking in the Yorkshire Oaks and Nunthorpe on the way to Saturday's big closer, the Ebor Handicap itself.


On Wednesday, the highest rated horse in training Postponed puts his credentials to the test in a classy group 1 field including multiple group 1 winners in The Grey Gatsby, Hawkbill and Highland Reel. Just before that dual Derby-placed Idaho is hot favourite to confirm supremacy over a small field in The Great Voltigeur. Stakes.


Thursday sees the fillies take centres stage with the Yorkshire Oaks as a centrepiece where the super consistent classy Found will put her credentials to the test again. We may see another star filly in the making as Fair Eva lines up in the Lowther Stakes for 2 year olds early on the card. She is 1/2 to get the job done.

Shrew’s Shrewdies

Wednesday

2:30 - Best of Days 5/4

3:05 - Idaho 8/11, Idaho-Imperial Aviator Forecast

3:40 – Hawkbill 9/2

Thursday

2:30 - Fair Eva 1/2  or Nation's Alexander 16/1 e.w.
3:40 - Seventh Heaven 7/2

 Wednesday 17^th August

2:30 – Acomb Stakes, Group 3, 7f

Godolphin purchase Best of Days is hard not to like after an easy 6 length win in his maiden. The form of that already takes him in line with the best of these with more experience. Bear Valley is one with a few runs under his belt and looked good when winning at Goodwood, but you'd expect this track less suited to his running style.


Courage Under Fire was easily beaten by Caravaggio last time out and the price is probably more reflective of his opposition that day than anything he's actually achieved - it depends when Aiden O'Brien is really planning to bring him to the boil but he is still an improving horse. William Haggas who always needs respect here, runs Lockheed who is the most likely to follow the favourite home.


None of the outsiders make much appeal.

3:05 – Great Voltigeur Stakes, Group 2, 1m4f

On paper you'd expect Idaho to win this. His form in being placed in both the English and Irish Derbies makes him the obvious choice...which does make you wonder why Aiden O'Brien runs both Housesofparliament and The Major General (both rubbish horse names) as well? Of the two I prefer the form of The Major General though it is interesting to note the poor record of Galelio colts in this race...


Speaking of breeding... If it weren't for the group 2 penalty, Across The Stars would look like a really nice sort for this and could still definitely give the favourite a run for his money - I think he probably has the best breeding to suggest he'd enjoy the course and distance. Harrison doesn't look up to it but The Imperial Aviator presents an appealing question mark if he can rediscover some of the form he had before flopping in the French derby.

3:40 – Juddmonte International Stakes, Group 1, 1m2f

Postponed will be hard to beat if recovered from injury

Postponed is one of the best horses in the world right now in a race that in recent years has been officially the highest rated in the world with past winners including Frankel , Sea The Stars, Declaration of War and Australia all winning in previous years before Golden Horn’s shock upset by Arabian Queen last year. He has beaten everything put before him since emerging from seemingly nowhere to win last season’s King George including a Coronation Stakes, Prix Du Foy and a Dubai Sheema Classic. Stating the obvious – he has a great chance.

However, he did miss this year’s King George through injury and it remains to be seen if that break has freshened him up or if he is still on the comeback trail – which makes the odds a little shorter than desirable. In his Sheema Classic victory he outclassed this year’s King George winner Highland Reel, who won what in my view was a weak renewal of the race where everything went his way with Wings of Desire a length down in second and Sir Isaac Newton (a likely pacemaker today) further back still.

The problem with both Postponed and Highland Reel is that their best form is over 1m4f and

From strength to strength - Hawkbill bids for further group 1 glory

although both trainers insist their horses will be comfortable over this trip, a true 10f horse at the top level could beat them. Exosphere and Dariyan are yet to really tick that box, so I prefer both of the three year olds – Wings of Desire, although held by Highland Reel at Ascot, has solid course form with a great run here in the Dante at the start of the season. He was disappointing in the Derby but I wouldn’t be surprised if he improved again for the drop back in trip. The one who seems constantly under the radar though is Hawkbill who showed class and grit to beat The Gurka in the Eclipse with Time Test back in third – A repeat of that performance for me would be good enough to beat the older horses here.



The Grey Gatsby edging out Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes

A mention as always goes to one of my favourites The Grey Gatsby who hasn’t been at his best since pushing Golden Horn to the line in last year’s Eclipse. That said, the exaggerated waiting tactics of Jamie Spencer haven’t always worked well for him and a jockey change could be a plus as is the drying ground – a few pounds each way wouldn’t hurt.

Thursday 18^th August

2:30 – Lowther Stakes, Group 2, 6f

Fair Eva - hot favourite to continue the hot streak of Frankel's progeny

Fair Eva has looked brilliant so far and can't be opposed to bring further success to the start of her superstar dads sire career. Queen Kindly has been another one of the stars of Frankel's first crop and is deservedly priced as second favourite in the market. Nation's Alexander and Roly Poly only had half a length between them last time out and with the penalty that the latter incurs from that win I'd expect Nation's Alexander to be ahead today and may well be the bet for a place.

3:40 – Yorkshire Oaks, Group 1, 1m4f

Found - on her way to another Breeders Cup?

Ratings would suggest that Found is a better horse over 1m2f than 1m4f however a second to

Postponed in the Coronation Cup and a Breeders Cup Classic win over Golden Horn make me think that she can't be too bad over this trip. She is the one to beat for sure. However, beat she often is. Despite her obvious class she is only 5/16 and after a short break this race is likely to be seen as bringing her back for a tilt at one of the big end of season prizes. She is the best horse in the race but I have my doubts over whether Aiden would have rushed her back to peak for this. So the question is.... who is going to beat her?

Can Seventh Heaven be cream of O'Brien's Crop?

The answer is, possibly another O'Brien horse in the form of Irish Oaks winner Seventh Heaven who looked impressive on that day scoring a two and a half length victory over Architecture and more notably Ribblesdale winner Even Song who was quite a way back in 7th. That would imply Seventh Heaven has a very good chance here assuming Evensong doesn't bounce back.


It seems with fillies that often being prepared specifically for the day is more important than past form. That would have to be a negative for Turret Rocks and Harlequeen - the latter of whom seems to be held up in a way that indicates she'd probably appreciate a step back in distance but has good place claims again. The same applies to Queens Trust who gave Minding a fair run for her money last time out and was also placed behind Evensong at Ascot .


A completely different form line shows there is not much between Endless Time, Furia Cruzada and Loving Things based on Lancashire Oaks form. That was a group 2 and I expect this form to be higher. It is worth noting that Endless Time is lightly raced this term and has maybe been saved for this but will she have enough to defy the penalty?


On balance I'd say Seventh Heaven has the best chance but wouldn't be surprised if she completely flops in which case perhaps Queens Trust might have her day in the sun.