The Whistling Shrew - York Ebor Festival Preview - Days 1 and 2

The Ebor Festival showcases many of the best races on the calendar with The International taking centre stage on Day 1, taking in the Yorkshire Oaks and Nunthorpe on the way to Saturday's big closer, the Ebor Handicap itself.


On Wednesday, the highest rated horse in training Postponed puts his credentials to the test in a classy group 1 field including multiple group 1 winners in The Grey Gatsby, Hawkbill and Highland Reel. Just before that dual Derby-placed Idaho is hot favourite to confirm supremacy over a small field in The Great Voltigeur. Stakes.


Thursday sees the fillies take centres stage with the Yorkshire Oaks as a centrepiece where the super consistent classy Found will put her credentials to the test again. We may see another star filly in the making as Fair Eva lines up in the Lowther Stakes for 2 year olds early on the card. She is 1/2 to get the job done.

Shrew’s Shrewdies

Wednesday

2:30 - Best of Days 5/4

3:05 - Idaho 8/11, Idaho-Imperial Aviator Forecast

3:40 – Hawkbill 9/2

Thursday

2:30 - Fair Eva 1/2  or Nation's Alexander 16/1 e.w.
3:40 - Seventh Heaven 7/2

 Wednesday 17^th August

2:30 – Acomb Stakes, Group 3, 7f

Godolphin purchase Best of Days is hard not to like after an easy 6 length win in his maiden. The form of that already takes him in line with the best of these with more experience. Bear Valley is one with a few runs under his belt and looked good when winning at Goodwood, but you'd expect this track less suited to his running style.


Courage Under Fire was easily beaten by Caravaggio last time out and the price is probably more reflective of his opposition that day than anything he's actually achieved - it depends when Aiden O'Brien is really planning to bring him to the boil but he is still an improving horse. William Haggas who always needs respect here, runs Lockheed who is the most likely to follow the favourite home.


None of the outsiders make much appeal.

3:05 – Great Voltigeur Stakes, Group 2, 1m4f

On paper you'd expect Idaho to win this. His form in being placed in both the English and Irish Derbies makes him the obvious choice...which does make you wonder why Aiden O'Brien runs both Housesofparliament and The Major General (both rubbish horse names) as well? Of the two I prefer the form of The Major General though it is interesting to note the poor record of Galelio colts in this race...


Speaking of breeding... If it weren't for the group 2 penalty, Across The Stars would look like a really nice sort for this and could still definitely give the favourite a run for his money - I think he probably has the best breeding to suggest he'd enjoy the course and distance. Harrison doesn't look up to it but The Imperial Aviator presents an appealing question mark if he can rediscover some of the form he had before flopping in the French derby.

3:40 – Juddmonte International Stakes, Group 1, 1m2f

Postponed will be hard to beat if recovered from injury

Postponed is one of the best horses in the world right now in a race that in recent years has been officially the highest rated in the world with past winners including Frankel , Sea The Stars, Declaration of War and Australia all winning in previous years before Golden Horn’s shock upset by Arabian Queen last year. He has beaten everything put before him since emerging from seemingly nowhere to win last season’s King George including a Coronation Stakes, Prix Du Foy and a Dubai Sheema Classic. Stating the obvious – he has a great chance.

However, he did miss this year’s King George through injury and it remains to be seen if that break has freshened him up or if he is still on the comeback trail – which makes the odds a little shorter than desirable. In his Sheema Classic victory he outclassed this year’s King George winner Highland Reel, who won what in my view was a weak renewal of the race where everything went his way with Wings of Desire a length down in second and Sir Isaac Newton (a likely pacemaker today) further back still.

The problem with both Postponed and Highland Reel is that their best form is over 1m4f and

From strength to strength - Hawkbill bids for further group 1 glory

although both trainers insist their horses will be comfortable over this trip, a true 10f horse at the top level could beat them. Exosphere and Dariyan are yet to really tick that box, so I prefer both of the three year olds – Wings of Desire, although held by Highland Reel at Ascot, has solid course form with a great run here in the Dante at the start of the season. He was disappointing in the Derby but I wouldn’t be surprised if he improved again for the drop back in trip. The one who seems constantly under the radar though is Hawkbill who showed class and grit to beat The Gurka in the Eclipse with Time Test back in third – A repeat of that performance for me would be good enough to beat the older horses here.



The Grey Gatsby edging out Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes

A mention as always goes to one of my favourites The Grey Gatsby who hasn’t been at his best since pushing Golden Horn to the line in last year’s Eclipse. That said, the exaggerated waiting tactics of Jamie Spencer haven’t always worked well for him and a jockey change could be a plus as is the drying ground – a few pounds each way wouldn’t hurt.

Thursday 18^th August

2:30 – Lowther Stakes, Group 2, 6f

Fair Eva - hot favourite to continue the hot streak of Frankel's progeny

Fair Eva has looked brilliant so far and can't be opposed to bring further success to the start of her superstar dads sire career. Queen Kindly has been another one of the stars of Frankel's first crop and is deservedly priced as second favourite in the market. Nation's Alexander and Roly Poly only had half a length between them last time out and with the penalty that the latter incurs from that win I'd expect Nation's Alexander to be ahead today and may well be the bet for a place.

3:40 – Yorkshire Oaks, Group 1, 1m4f

Found - on her way to another Breeders Cup?

Ratings would suggest that Found is a better horse over 1m2f than 1m4f however a second to

Postponed in the Coronation Cup and a Breeders Cup Classic win over Golden Horn make me think that she can't be too bad over this trip. She is the one to beat for sure. However, beat she often is. Despite her obvious class she is only 5/16 and after a short break this race is likely to be seen as bringing her back for a tilt at one of the big end of season prizes. She is the best horse in the race but I have my doubts over whether Aiden would have rushed her back to peak for this. So the question is.... who is going to beat her?

Can Seventh Heaven be cream of O'Brien's Crop?

The answer is, possibly another O'Brien horse in the form of Irish Oaks winner Seventh Heaven who looked impressive on that day scoring a two and a half length victory over Architecture and more notably Ribblesdale winner Even Song who was quite a way back in 7th. That would imply Seventh Heaven has a very good chance here assuming Evensong doesn't bounce back.


It seems with fillies that often being prepared specifically for the day is more important than past form. That would have to be a negative for Turret Rocks and Harlequeen - the latter of whom seems to be held up in a way that indicates she'd probably appreciate a step back in distance but has good place claims again. The same applies to Queens Trust who gave Minding a fair run for her money last time out and was also placed behind Evensong at Ascot .


A completely different form line shows there is not much between Endless Time, Furia Cruzada and Loving Things based on Lancashire Oaks form. That was a group 2 and I expect this form to be higher. It is worth noting that Endless Time is lightly raced this term and has maybe been saved for this but will she have enough to defy the penalty?


On balance I'd say Seventh Heaven has the best chance but wouldn't be surprised if she completely flops in which case perhaps Queens Trust might have her day in the sun.