York - Day 4 Ebor Festival Preview
Shrews Shrewdies
1:45 - Ode to Evening 10/1 e.w. and Scarlet Dragon 7/1
2:15 - Educate 10/1 e.w
2:50 - Master Blueyes 9/1 e.w.
3:25 - Dream of Dreams 9/1 e.w. or Intelligence Cross 9/1 e.w
4:00 She is no Lady 8/1, Heartbreak City 8/1 or Kinema 10/1.
4:35 - Sutter County 5/2
Shrew's WILDCARDs: 2:15 Yorker 14/1 and 4:00 Shrewd 11/1
Race-By-Race Guide
1:45
It looks like there will be at least 16 going to post for this so 4 places up for grabs each way. Of the market principles Dark Red looked to be on a good run before reaching a plateau when last seen at Epsom in June when beaten by Imshivalla another of whom's form has dropped off since. Snoano seems to be a consistent sort although form over 10f is relatively poor against his 12f form. Erik the Red will probably not enjoy this ground much. Chancery has been out of sorts for a long while but a market move from 16/1 into 7/1 is tough to ignore but I will anyway.
Scarlet Dragon is a fast improving horse and is up 6lbs after a close 4th last time out. Ode to Evening was second that day and is now 3lbs higher however a draw in stall one and a strong galloping track may put his staying credentials to good use. He is one of three Mark Johnston horses and I prefer him to Sennockian Star who has poor form at York.
I could see Batallion also running well here at the top of the weights.
2:15
This is a really nice Group 3 with several proven performers including 2014 winner Custom Cut. He is a consistent performer but gets his head in front far less these days and was beaten earlier in the year by another seasoned campaigned in Tulius who is now off a 9lb higher weight vs Custom Cut than that day. Both will likely have a better chance than the legend that is Gabrial on his 55th career start. The ground will likely be against Air Pilot today. Educate posted a career best last time out over this course, but that was in a big field handicap and todays test will be different. He looks a decent each way price though.
Scottish is a horse with a lot of enthusiasm behind him but was a beaten favourite at Haydock last time out and his Newbury form in beating Trip to Paris didn't stack up yesterday. Diploma is also on the up but form under 1m2f is underwhelming thus far - remains unproven although price suggests there's confidence behind her. I think this is a big ask against the colts.
Yorker is a big unknown having come over from South Africa and being over 400 days without a run. Haggas' record in bringing back horses from long breaks has to be respected and if he is on form then he is officially top rated in the race. and therefore he may be the wildcard in the bunch!
2:50
Effectively the Ebor for three year olds this could be a bit of a lottery (as the betting suggests). There was hardly anything between Shraaoh, Emperor Napoleon, Jameeh and Master Blueyes at Goodwood. Of them Shraaoh and Master Blueyes seemed to be staying on the best towards the end and would have to be fancied over a longer trip.
Kellstorm is a brother to Order of St George and that is good enough to make him fancied. He seems to be fairly level on form with Regal Monarch who has improved with each run up until now but is penalised for a win on Sunday. I could see Forth Bridge developing into a strong stayer over time and he may be well placed in first start in handicap company.
3:25
On paper this should be an easy win for Blue Point and so it may prove. He has about 4lbs on the rest of the field. Mokarris and Mubtasim pose the obvious threats but all form has been on good to firm ground and may therefore be unreliable which makes me prefer more heavily campaigned horses.
The Last Lion I would have like but his form (and the form of Global Applause) ties in with Yalta who was last in the Nunthorpe yesterday so is hard to fancy.Dream of Dreams seems to be a little more battle hardened than some of these which I think counts for a lot and I'd be willing to have him against the field. Intelligence Cross has some decent form behind Mehmas and may also come here with a little more experience under the belt.
Ardad will come into the picture if the going turns to soft.
4:00, Ebor Handicap, 1m6f
In recent years the standard of horses has greatly increased in this race to now have one of the strongest handicap fields on offer, which in turn gives horses at the top of the weights a better chance than before. It is hard to find too many holes in favourite and Northumberland Plate winner Antiquarium who also ran a good 5th here during last years festival. Kinema is another with good form coming into this and could go well dropped back to handicap company.
Top Tug is well handicapped and has some nice course form but didn't look to be staying over 1m4f here last time. There's a lot to like about Heartbreak City though and Tony Martin could have him absolutely primed for this.
Shrewd is always going to be a favourite of the Shrew with a name like that and he has some decent form behind him on previous runs at York, finishing just behind Friday winner Quest for More last time out. May be a bit high in the weights but is worth a shout. She is no Lady looks progressive and could be off of a really nice weight here if continuing her upward curve.
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