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| The Last Samuri jumps in the lead with eventual winner Rule The World just in behind. He bids to carry top weight to victory today. |
Big Race Trial Analysis
Although there are very few back-to-back winners, horses who run well in
previous nationals and get into the places will often run well again - The Last Samuri
(not a typo!) was a gallant second last year and now takes top weight after
running well in other handicaps throughout the season. Ucello Conti (6th)
and the well fancied Vieux
Lion Rouge (7th) represent the other strong finishers from
that race, the latter of whom may benefit from being a year older and more so
for the dryer conditions. Just
A Par (15th) is the only other finisher to return this year.
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| Vieux Lion Rouge jumps just behind Highland Lodge |
Vieux Lion Rouge is the winner of another big trial for this, The Beecher
chase over the same fences at the shorter distance of 3m2f where he beat old
boy Highland Lodge
by a short head (with Last Samuri and Ucello Conti again in 3rd and 4th)
with One For Arthur
in 5th. Saint Are fell
at the first but has run well in the National before coming 2nd on much better
ground than when pulling up last year. The Young Master also failed to complete
but looks well-handicapped given his obvious talent at staying trips.
Irish fancy Rogue Angel quite
a way back in 10th, though staying on better towards the end. He represents the
winning connections hear as Mouse Morris/Gigginstown bid for consecutive
Nationals.
He also represents another key form line in winners of other Nationals and we have in the field horses who have won or run well in the Irish, Welsh and Scottish equivalents. In fact, Mouse Morris and Gigginstown are represented by the two previous winners of the Irish National here in the form of Rogue Angel and Thunder and Roses who both maybe interesting. The Welsh National was well won by Gold Cup third Native River but he was being closed on the line all the way by Raz De Maree who as another old boy is a proven stayer, albeit finishing down the field on his previous attempt here. The Scottish National (in which 2013 National winner Auroras Encore came 1st or 2nd, I can't remember which) was last won by Vicente who is one of the may bullets Paul Nicholls fires at this in pursuit of Nicky Henderson in the race for the trainers title. He came alive on good ground in that race and if nothing else will stay, though he'll have to jump well.
He was also 5th in a top renewal of the 4m novice chase at Cheltenham last year behind Gold Cup 2nd and 3rd Minella Rocco and Native River (with Vieux Lion Rouge again(!) in 6th. Interestingly, Measureofmydreams was 3rd. He has shown no such form since but as a result could be well handicapped if finding he takes well to this test. Pleasant Company, Definitely Red and Shantou Flyer all failed to complete on that day albeit they have all come out to win good handicaps this year, though Shantou Flyers win was not over a staying distance. Pleasant Company beat 4 of todays rivals off level weights on his last outing; Thunder and Roses (2nd), Roi Des Francs (4th), Lord Windermere (5th) and Wounded Warrior (PU). Definitely Red beat The Last Samuri impressively, albeit with a lot of weight in hand (they have the same weight differentiation today)
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| Causes of Causes wins the Cross Country |
Speaking of Lord Windermere, it is not often you'll see a former Gold Cup winner at 50/1 for the National. Though his form since has been nothing like that and even then it was a weak Gold Cup. But the Cheltenham Festival has proven time and again to be a good prep for this with previous winners like Rough Quest, Pineau Du Re and Many Clouds running here before. Rough Quest was of course placed in the Gold Cup before winning in 1997 and with compression being a big part of how the race is weighted nowadays then the Gold Cup horses More of That (6th)and Saphir De Rheu (5th) hypothetically come into this as the well treated and most classy animals in the race. Both have had good and bad days at the highest level and it is uncertain whether this is the right sort of test for them despite promising runs. The Kim Muir has also been a trial in the past but the highest placed finisher from that to run here is Dr Harper (7th) who slips in at the bottom of the weights. Arguably one of the best handicapped horses in the field is Cause of Causes, who bolted up in the cross country; a race previously taken in by trainer Gordon Elliott's Silver Birch en route to winning the 2007 National. Wonderful Charm also ran well at the festival coming 2nd in the Foxhunters and will be interesting under Katie Walsh.
Looking back to last year's festival though we find one of the most interesting runners in the field in RSA winner Blaklion, who comprehensively outstayed More of That after the lest fence that day. However, he did go onto the Mildmay Novice Chase here where he was stuffed by Native River owing many to believe that the 4miler form (as mentioned above is stronger). I always got the impression Cheltenham was this horses track but he skipped the Gold Cup to come here and if he comes good for the spring ground he is the other horse with potential class in the race and could be massively well in. While we're on the RSA we may as well mention 2013 winner O'Faolain's Boy who hasn't been at his best for a long time but will hopefully enjoy a good spin around here.
So.... If I haven't mentioned the winner somewhere in there we may well be stuffed, but to narrow it down here is The Shrewdies and The WORLD FAMOUS runner-by-runner Grand National Guide.
Shrew's Shrewdies
I would play the National with 5 against the field to match the 5 places most bookmakers pay (some will pay 6) all each way and then maybe some as reverse forecasts…
5:15 - The Grand National
Shrew's Longlist: The Last Samuri, Saphir De Rheu, Wonderful Charm, Tenor Nivernais, Blaklion, The Young Master, Cause of Causes, Vieux Lion Rouge, Definitely Red, Pleasant Company, Houblon Des Obeaux, One For Arthur, Highland Lodge, Saint Are, Vicente, Raz De Maree, Rogue Angel, Thunder and Roses
Shrew’s Shortlist: The Last Samuri, Saphir Du Rheu, Wonderful Charm, Blaklion, The Young Master, Vieux Lion Rouge, Definitely Red, Pleasant Company, One For Arthur, Highland Lodge, Saint Are, Vicente, Rogue Angel, Thunder and Roses
Shrew's 1-2-3-4-5 Against the Field (each way):
Pleasant Company 14/1
Saint Are 40/1
The Last Samuri 18/1
Vicente 22/1
Thunder and Roses 33/1
Shrew's Bonus (for bookies who pay 6 places):
Definitely Red 10/1
Shrew’s BIG ONES (for the over 40s club): Houblon Des Obeaux 50/1
THE GRAND NATIONAL 4m2f78yd
Runner-by-Runner Guide
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| Last year's second carries a big weight |
Seemingly pays a big price for finishing second last year which came in ideal conditions. Will definitely stay but weight carrying efforts are usually reserved for top class horses and I'm not sure if he'll be as effective on this ground. Is slightly advantaged at the weights against Definitely Red who he finished behind last time out. I expect he'll travel well but it's a big ask. ***
More of That
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| More of That hopes to build on Gold Cup 6th |
In a race largely devoid of absolute top quality, this horse could plug that gap. The compression in the weights means that in some ways he could be seen as being 'well in'. I'm not expecting him to take to this test and am prepared to be proven wrong if it comes to it. **
Shantou Flyer
A good horse but I'd be surprised if he figured off this weight and no form at distance trips despite trainers confidence he'll stay *
Perfect Candidate
The fact he is this high in the weights shows this probably isn't a vintage National for class, however he did put in a career best performance at Exeter in a Veteran's Chase last time out and has bags of winning form over 3m2f and further. However his three runs in fields of 15 or more have seen him finish down the field no higher than 7th. Will jump soundly and give you a good spin from a prominent position but ultimately may be found wanting come the end under this weight. **
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| Saphir Du Rheu heads a big team for Nicholls |
Saphir Du Rheu
Seemed to spring back to life a bit in the Gold Cup, finishing a game and fairly close 5th, they all finished fairly close to one another which suggested the pace wasn't red hot but he's in better at the weights than More of That. He has a squeak on his Gold Cup run and is still a very good horse and is well in on the weights. Jumping can be sketchy though and he hasn't been able to get into the places in distance trips ***
Roi Des Francs
Runs reasonably and has always been seen as a stayer so I think he'll get the trip. Will also be ridden prominently so will likely stay out of trouble and can give you a good spin but I'd be surprised if others aren't better handicapped. ***
Wounded Warrior
Promised a lot earlier in his career but has shown none of that form this year. Before was at the top table in races over 3m1f having been beaten by Don Cossack and Valseur Lido. Ironically his last win was over last year's winner Rule The World back in January 2015. He's not the worst 66/1 shot but it would be a shot in the dark at him rediscovering form and staying the trip. **
Wonderful Charm
A good second in the Foxhunters and teams up again with Katie Walsh. That was his best run this season and could represent a return to form. He disappointed last year when pulled up off a lb higher and it is difficult to like horses who didn't complete on the last attempt. You'd give him a better chance on good ground and odds are appealing given good runs at Aintree before that. Considered at the prices ***
Tenor Nivernais
Visually impressive 30 length win in Februrary means he is actually quite well in on the weights. He was ahead of Topham favourite Go Conquer on that day and was 8 lengths to the good against Le Mercury last time out. Unproven thus far at anything beyond 3m but has to be considered on handicap mark alone ***
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| Blaklion has had a moderate season since the RSA but may have been trained with this in mind |
Blaklion
I really don't know what to make of this entry. To me Blaklion should've been campaigned for the Gold Cup as his best form to date is all at Cheltenham, Multiple winner over 3m trips and is a grade 1 performer albeit usually coming in behind better horses at the top table. Impossible to rule out as he could bolt up but also could not take to this at all. ***
Drop Out Joe
To be 100% honest I don't have a clue who Drop Out Joe is or how he is this high in the weights without me having heard of him. Whoever he is, I wish him well...Apparently he has won three big field handicaps which is an obvious plus and it seems like he'll like the ground. However has not delivered at the top level and as been off since June which are both big question marks. **
Le Mercury
Wasn't too far behind Native River at Newbury but was 8 lengths off Tenor Nivernais last time out. Probably on a fair handicap mark and stays 3m1f but others preferred. **
The Young Master
A lot to like here. From the same stable as The Druids Nephew who was running a big race two years ago. He had a breakthrough season a couple of years ago and has then run well in big handicaps without delivering until coming good at Sandown last April. Ran a nice prep at Cheltenham in the Ultima but could only manage 6th and fell here in December. Shortlisted but others may be preferred. ***
Cause of Causes
Obvious claims and the one who will likely attract Irish money on the day. Three time Cheltenham winner, completing the hat-trick this year with a great win in the CrossCountry -a race won as a prep by the same trainer's Silver Birch in 2006, propelling Gordon Elliotts career forward in the process.
He is a small small horse and these fences do still take some jumping. If he jumps well he has a great chance. I'm just not sure he will. ***
Regal Encore
It's always dangerous to say that a JP McManus horse seems higher than they should be in the weights. The main negative for this horse is his running style as he'll likely be held up which is unlikely to suit on the good ground. No form really at staying trips. Others preferred *
Vieux Lion Rouge
Obvious claims. Was a worthy winner of the Beecher Chase touching off Highland Lodge by a nose before doubling up last time out. He stays and was a fair 6th in this last year as a 6 year old in conditions that perhaps didn't suit. ****
Definitely Red
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| Definitely Red comes as one of the best handicapped in the race but needs to prove himself in a big field. |
Obvious claims.10lb well in and won the race The Last Samuri won en route to this beating the same horse by 14 lengths. Staying is likely to be the name of the game with this horse and I have no doubts about him in that respect. However, form in larger fields is pretty poor. Shortlisted on potential but worries about that ***
Ucello Conti
At the risk of sounding like my own echo, obvious claims again especially for a place. Didn't quite stay the trip last year and that was probably on ground he would have preferred the ground last year. However, he's now worse off in the weights than when beaten Vieux Lion Rouge in the Beecher. May run on into a place but I'd prefer others. **
Double Shuffle
Has shown best form when upped to 3m on last two starts but has never raced over further. Have to assume he won’t stay until he proves us wrong and this is a big ask for a 7 year old **
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| Houblon Des Obeaux has shown a bit of sparkle placing in big races could go well at a price |
Houblon Des Obeaux
Interesting as he has shown good class in the past and has tumbled down the handicap this season despite showing signs of revival at Uttoxeter last time out and better off in the weights against Raz De Maree and One For Arthur after running in behind them both this season. Probably will be held up which is a negative but given his price he’s worth considering for a place **
Pleasant Company
Interesting. Good win over 3m1f last time out beating a couple of these off level weights. Also won over that distance last April… Oddly still had a Supreme Novice entry until the last minute. Lightly raced for a 9 year old and scope for further improvement. Untested over further but most definitely considered ***
One For Arthur
Only 5th in the Becher but a very good win in January when stepped up to 3m5f. Seems an out and out stayer. Form of that race has worked out well enough with the second winning and the third and fourth running subsequently well. He’s unexposed and open to further improvement. Shortlisted ****
Ballyganour
Best days probably behind him. He was travelling well here last year before being pulled up. Has a chance of staying the trip but others have to be preferred. *
O'Faolain's Boy
Classy horse a couple of years ago and has had wind operation after. Who knows if that will have desired effect but you’d be chancing quite a lot to fancy him here *
Highland Lodge
Older horse with a fantastic record around these fences but incredibly lightly raced in the last few years. Only beaten a nose by Vieux Lion Rouge to deny him back to back Becher Chases. Has to be considered based on record here though no run since then may be a worry. ****
Bishops Road
Would probably prefer soft to heavy ground and didn’t get further than the first fence in last year’s Topham. Others preferred despite decent mark. **
Lord Windermere
It may have been the weakest Gold Cup in years in 2014 but this is nonetheless a Gold Cup winner being asked to carry a measely 10-10 in the national... His last attempt came off of top weight and he was pulled up on the second circuit having made a mistake at the canal turn. It wouldn't be the biggest shock in a National, but others preferred. **
Saint Are
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| Saint Are has great course form and will much appreciate the dryer ground |
The conditions didn't suit the horse last year. He was winning going over the Chair but gradually lost his place on a stamina sapping 2nd circuit. He's down to a more workable mark again today and will carry just 4lbs more than when second in 2015. HIs form this year has not been great but he was a promising second over 3m last time out when conceding a lot of weight and only being beaten a head. Given the right conditions on the day then there are worse 40/1 shots in the field. ****
Vicente
A lot to like about Vicente. 5th in the 4m at last year’s Cheltenham Festival and followed up with a big win in the Scottish National, crucially on faster ground. He hasn’t yet ridden to those heights yet this season but given better ground and a marathon trip I’d expect improvement and he could be off a good mark. ***
Just a Par
Seems well handicapped. All his best form is at marathon trips but was another who just didn't get on with the ground last year. As such he is probably overpriced. He is a horse who has on and off days which isn't necessarily a bad thing in the national but I’d doubt this is his going to be his day despite now donning the colours made famous by Alvarado and Cappa Bleu who have placed here in recent years.
Measureofmydreams
Has run poorly all season but crucially was 3rd behind Minella Rocco and Native River in the novice chase at Cheltenham. That is top form. Overpriced but a lot to prove. ***
Raz De Maree
I'd guess this is the oldest horse in the field and experience is often not a bad thing to have in the National (see Vics Canvas last year). He ran eye-catchingly in the Welsh National when closing on Native River at the line. You can probably forgive his last run. However, in his last attempt at this he finished 8th behind Pineau De Re -Not without a chance of hitting the frame but others may just be preferred. ***
Stellar Notion
Completely unproven over this sort of trip but ran well behind Tiger Roll when upped to 3m. You’d be disappointed if there weren’t better suited horses than him in the field despite his class. **
Rogue Angel
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| Rogue Angel's finest hour in the Irish National also won the previous year by... |
Interesting representative for last years winning connections and selection of retained jockey Bryan Cooper. Goes from the front so will stay out of trouble but worse off at the weights than Pleasant Company who was ahead of him in the Thyestes and has a pull at the weights today. I can’t underestimate Mouse Morris, but them be the facts ***
Cocktails at Dawn
Massively out of sorts in handicap chases and doubtful stayer *
Thunder and Roses
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| ... Thunder and Roses who finished ahead of Rule the World |
Seems to run better in smaller fields with one notable exception being his Irish National win. Probably not that much between him and Rogue Angel but faired better against Pleasant Copmany two starts ago before a disappointing run last time out. Also an Irish National winner but generally poor form in big fields except that win. ***
Gas Line Boy
Got as far as the first fence in 2015, but has been reasonably consistent since then. I will quite happily look elsewhere though *
Goodtoknow
Handicapped to his best, decent second behind One For Arthurand gets 3lb swing in the weights for a 6 length defeat. Has been pulled up in other starts over marathon distances. Shortlisted at his price **
La Vaticane
No form at trips over further than 3m and hard to fancy. *
Dr Harper
Showed a return to form when just touched off on New Years Day at Cheltenham but that was best run in a long time and it’s doubtful he was ever most effective over staying trips. *
Whats in a name?
Of course there is always money for horses here for no reason other than their names: Fans of martial arts films will have to choose between last year's second The Last Samuri and The Young Master. Liverpool and Man Utd fans will no doubt pile into Definitely Red, who may also have some support from the Asian market due to the perceived luckiness of the colour red, which could also produce a gamble on Blaklion. Just a Par was only 15th last year but could attract those betting on the masters
Shrew's Shrewdies
A very brief look at the rest of the races… no major fancies but if you want to play the placepot:
1:45 No Hasslehoff 6/1 or Doesyourdogbite 40/1 e/w
2:25 Messire Des Obeaux 5/1 or La Bague Au Roi 18/1 e/w
3:00 San Benedeto 6/1 e/w
3:40 Lamb or Cod 28/1, Takingrisks 25/1 or Sizing Codelco 16/1
4:20 Ballyoptic 9/1 or Snow Falcon 10/1 e/w
6:15 Wakea 7/1
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| Yanworth is the star name on the supporting card But will a step up in trip offer redemption for his poor Champion Hurdle run? |
