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| Might Bite clears the water jump on route to Cheltenham success |
The feature race though is the Melling Chase which brings together the best (or strictly speaking 2nd best) in the Ryanair and Champion Chases. Sub Lieutenant put in a bold show behind Un De Sceaux but it was Fox Norton who got closer in his race being only beaten by the narrowest of margins by Special Tiara. They take on last years winner God's Own in a tight heat.
The 'mini-national' - the Topham over 2m5f of national fences is about as much of a lottery as the race itself if not more so. The quality novice hurdlers line up in the Grand Sefton and the Top Novice both of which look like good races with a competitive handicap to top the card, all before something coming through and whet the appetite for 2017/18 in the Aintree bumper.
I will review the whole festival after the three days but one of the big stories of Day1 was the retirement of Silviniaco Conti - 7 time grade 1 winner - and I hope he has many happy days in his new career, whatever that may be.
Shrew's Shrewdies
Most Likely Winner Shrew's Shrewdie
1:45 3 against the field: Sky Kahn 14/1, Rather Be 10/1 and/or Geordie Des Champs 1 14/1 e/w
2:20 River Wylde 2/1 Mount Mews 7/2
2:50 Might Bite 4/6 Callett Mad 28/1 e/w
3:25 God's Own 11/4 (Sub Liutenant a big danger)
4:05 4 against the field: O O Seven 18/1, Clarcam 25/1, Seefood 10/1, Henryville 12/1 e/w
4:40 The World's End 5/2 (nap) Ballymalin 20/1 e/w
5:15 Black Op 7/2 If The Cap Fits 5/1 or And The New 33/1 e/w
Race-by-race Guide
1:45 Handicap Hurdle 2m4f
Not the easiest of starts and it's a general 9/1 the field...I'm not madly keen to spend much time on it. One that is potentially well handicapped is Sky Kahn.
I put Rather Be up at Cheltenham before he unseated rather early so I'd give him a chance again having not had much of a race at all. The top of the weights has a few classy horses who I could see running well... Georgie Des Champs stands out as a previous Aintree winner so he might as well be in there too.
2:20 Novice Hurdle 2m
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| Cloudy Dream was an impressive 49 length winner at Kelso and comes here fresh |
A competitive novice hurdle with some of the form from the Supreme Novice going up against horses that have been held back for this meeting. Mount Mews makes a lot of appeal and is only rated a couple of pounds below Moon Racer and River Wylde. In truth it's difficult to know what his actual rating should be given his last win was a 45 length demolition of a much weaker field than this. Malcolm Jefferson was on the scoreboard yesterday with Double W's and Cloudy Dream ran well also behind Flying Angel and will fancy his chances to follow up.
Moon Racer never got in the mix in the champion hurdle and the way he ran to me suggested he probably wouldn't have fared much better in the Supreme - he could easily bounce back and had no sort of race to have taken much off of him. He should be prepped for this. I would have the bigger danger as River Wylde who was a very good third in the Supreme Novice. He will likely be ridden prominently which will suit the course but may not have the same freshness as Mount Mews.
Of the ones at bigger prices you may as well bet American Gigolo over Chti Balko as was ahead of him at Doncaster earlier in the year. The Unit has place claims but why not chance it on 50/1 French import Bulkov.
2:50 Novice Chase, 3m2f
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| Might Bite vs Whisper round 2 |
Might Bite is undoubtedly as talented as he is mental and if he puts up a similar performance to the one he did at Cheltenham it will take a lot to beat him. Although he only touched Whisper off by a nose in the end he is miles better than the pure form and I presume on a flat track the jockey will have none of the problems he experienced after the last at Cheltenham. Whisper though is a bit of a course specialist here, over hurdles at least and will certainly be waiting to pounce should the favourite falter.
If they both run up to form then there isn't much each way value in the race but if you want to take one I'd side with Calett Mad who will be better now dropped back in trip.
3:25 Melling Chase 2m3f
This is a really good race with no absolute standout star. The previous ten winners have all run in either the Ryanair or Queen Mother with the races producing 5 winners apiece. Fittingly we have the 2nd placed horses in both those races in the form of Fox Norton and Sub Lieutenant. Both horses stayed on in their respective races well to close gaps on the eventual winners. Of the two Sub Lieutenant is the more experienced over this trip with good form to his name behind Sizing John and Outlander to name a couple. However, he has failed to get his head in front against both, who are arguably more staying types. Fox Norton has never run beyond 2m1f but stayed on well at the end of the Champion Chase. His run at Aintree last year in the novice chase saw him 32 lengths off of Douvan in third.
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| Gods Own bids for back to back successes on spring ground he adores |
God's Own won this race last year and was still in with a chance in the Champion Chase when almost landing on top of the second fence. He comes good for spring ground and will be better suited by this trip. He was ahead of Fox Norton when making that mistake and whether it was the error or whether it was the hill at Cheltenham finding it out, either way, this course and distance I'd side with him to finish ahead of Fox Norton. It's the wrong way to look at it, but in direct form terms through Un De Sceaux's Ryanair and Tingle Creek respectively Sub Lietuenant and God's Own have 1/2 length between them. I'd expect God's Own to be on the up on the spring ground however so he is just about the selection.
Of the others Uxizandre is a previous Aintree winner and could be the forgotten horse at 8/1 but Josses Hill makes more appeal at the prices given his victory over Tea For Two and More of That at Huntingdon earlier in the season, and a decent run in the King George which is further than his ideal distance.
4:05 Topham Handicap Chase, 2m5f
Probably more of a lottery than the National... you could quite easily back four who look good here and have none of them hit the frame. So let's do that...
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| Eastlake bids for back-to-back success over the National fences |
Clarcam and O O Seven strike me as the two class horses alongside Irish Cavalier, but seem more on the upgrade than the latter. I like them towards the top of the weights.
Further down, Dr Richard Newland has had Richard Johnson booked early to ride Seefood and I imagine he'll be in the mix as well as Henryville who has previous good form over the fences.
4:40 Sefton Novices Hurdle 3m
West Approach is officially the best horse in this race but a) his mark is arguably inflated due to running against the older experienced horse and b) it's hard to back anything coming out of Colin Tizzard's yard of late. At worst you'd expect him to finish better than Tizzard's other runner Elegant Escape who faded completely in the Albert Bartlett.
The better part of that form however is represented by Constantine Bay who was a good staying on 4th on that day. But arguably he (and the horses that beat him) weren't travelling as well as The Worlds End before he departed the race two out when starting to get into a good stride. His form going into that race has been very good at staying trips and I would be willing to give him another go.
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| The Worlds End bids to get back to winning ways after Cheltenham |
If Get On The Yeger were running in the national you'd expect the price to drop drastically from the swarms of 18-30 money coming for his name alone. He's been consistent but ultimately fell short at Group level. Monbeg Charmer is unexposed but this will be altogether a harder test. Testify will also find this a big step up in class for the McCain team.
Beyond Conceit and Keeper Hill were both down the field at Cheltenham but may enjoy the longer trip but I'd side marginally with proven performance over the distance and Ballymalin is a three time winner over 3m and maybe value despite bad stable form.
5:15 Aintree Bumper 2m1f
I'm not madly keen on anything, but in simple terms, Western Ryder was behind Claimtakinforgan at Cheltenham and Claimtakinforgan was easily beaten by Black Op last time out... so you'd assume that the pecking order of those three.
If The Cap Fits has won two good bumpers and for some reason I like horses sired by Milan here - I'm not sure if the stats back that up. Anyway he's 2lbs better than Black Op based on runs so far but any level of improvement could come from either of them. They will both likely be prominent which is a plus.
And The New was an eyecatching 7th in the Cheltenham race. He was held up but perhaps given a more positive ride could take advantage of a fast early pace and pick some off in the straight to earn a place.
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