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| Cue Card is the star name as he bids once again for Gold Cup Redemption |
Day 1 is simply top class despite small fields and sees the Bowl and Aintree Hurdle take centre stage where we will see the best staying chasers take on defending champion Cue Card followed by the Champion Hurdle winner Buveaur D'Air looking to repeat the double achieved by Annie Power last year. A novice and juvenile grade 1, mares bumper, an ultra competitive 2m handicap chase and the Foxhunters Chase over the National fences make this one of the best race days in the calendar (that is until tomorrow)
I have changed the tips slightly to offer a 'most likely winner' based on form and suitability to the race (so will often be a first 2nd or third favourite) and a separate Shrew's Shrewdie if I think that horse is opposable. For some races there may not be a likely winner and for some races there may not be a standout Shrewd selection... The most likely winner represents just what it says it does. The Shrewdie represents the horse with the best price compared to its chance of winning
Shrew's Shrewdies
Most Likely Winner Shrew's Shrewdie
1:45 Top Notch 6/5 Frodon 5/1
2:20 Defi Du Seuil 1/3 Forth Bridge 14/1 e/w or place only
2:50 Cue Card 13/8
3:25 Buveaur D'Air 4/11 My Tent Or Yours for 2nd 10/1 e/w
4:05 On The Fringe 6/4 Bear's Affair 25/1 e/w or Rebel Rebellion 14/1 e/w
4:40 Foxtail Hill 11/1 e/w or Raven's Tower 20/1 e/w
5:15 Oscar Rose 18/1 e/w
It's an interesting opening to the festival and it might be worth betting small multiples with some of the shorter priced horses - namely Top Notch, Defi Du Seuil, On The Fringe, Buveur D'Air and Cue Card. A couple may get beaten (Cue Card and On The Fringe the most risky) but you'd expect three or four to come in.
Race-by-race Guide
1:45 Mildmay Manifesto Novice Chase, 2m4f
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| Top Notch bids for a second Graded success over fences |
A great way to start the festival. This looks a challenging race with two big Cheltenham performers heading the market in Top Notch and Cloudy Dream who were second to Yorkhill and Altior respectively. Top Notch is the obvious choice to be winning this and has only found Yorkhill too good in his last five runnings, three of which have come at this trip. He has a great chance but has been on the go since September and this race is a graveyard for favourites for that exact reason.
Cloudy Dream comes in as second favourite after a good run behind Altior in the Arkle. Altior quickened away from him impressively at Cheltenham, which is partially owing to Altior's brilliance but also makes me think that on this fast galloping track he might not quite have the pace of Top Notch especially being stepped up in distance for the first time.
Frodon on the other hand has amassed vast experience at this distance. Like Top Notch he may have had one too many runs under his belt this year but skipped Cheltenham and comes here off a 40 day break as a horse who is still improving at just 5 years of age, though has been off the same mark for his past three starts.
Flying Angel is also improving. I put him up each way in the JLT but he was hampered fairly early on and never recovered into a position to mount any sort of challenge. At the odds he still represents re good value for a hors who is a winner at this distance.
Cyrus Moriviere and Max Ward both have a lot of improving to do based on ratings and would need a lot of luck in running to figure.
2:20 Doom Bar Anniversary Juvenile Hurdle , 2m
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| Defi Du Seuil is odds on to follow up on his Cheltenham Triumph |
This race has a surprisingly poor record for horses looking to double up with the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham - perhaps because of the speed at which it comes up or perhaps because it's the time of year that spring juveniles first start to show the form that they couldn't on the winter ground. In Defi Du Seuil though you'd expect a big performance. He travelled like a dream at Cheltenham and the way he extended after the last makes him a live contender for the 2018 Champion Hurdle or Arkle, whichever race he goes for. If he runs to form it's difficult to see him getting beaten here.
It would certainly be hard to see any of the horses who were behind him at Cheltenham improving past him for the change of track.
Divin Bere is the most likely to follow him home based on his close run in the Fred Winter and is now much better off in the weights than Flying Tiger who beat him by a nose. If there's any value it may be in the Queen's horse Forth Bridge who skipped the festival and could improve sufficiently to fill one of the places.
2:50 Betway Bowl, 3m1f
Cue Card, Cue Card, Cue Card... There is no getting away from the fact that he wasn't travelling in the Cheltenham Gold Cup as well as he was last year. There is also no getting away from the fact that he is getting older and that his form this season has been patchy at best. In fact, barring a good run at Haydock beating a returning Coneygree and an emphatic victory at Ascot he has looked very much on the decline this season. But despite that he is still the best horse in the race and back on a flat track, who knows? Having departed when the race was heating up at Cheltenham one could argue that he has reserved a little energy and there is no horse in training with quite the constitution that Cue Card has. Assuming he shows up in form the question is whether there is a grade 1 opponent good enough to beat him.
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| Empire of Dirt seeks redemption after a poor run and will prefer the 3m trip today |
The likelier candidates for that are Empire of Dirt or Bristol De Mai . Empire of Dirt was given a strange ride in the Ryanair and hit a fence early... He did however travel strongly and the step back up to 3m+ may see him return to the form he was in when behind Sizing John in the Irish Gold Cup. He might win and is the most obvious choice if Cue Card fails to deliver but there is better value elsewhere. A return to a flat track will sit Bristol De Mai who seemed to improve for a step up in distance, there was nothing wrong with his run in the Gold Cup other than he wasn't really quick enough - that's unlikely to change on a speed track like Aintree.
Tea for Two exited the Cheltenham Gold Cup at the second fence but did proceed to run around the outside of the field and jump one of the railings before running down the straight. Nonetheless he should still be quite fresh and a flat track is a plus, his form going this direction as opposed to clockwise though is definitely not. Smad Place will run his race but again is doubtful to be good enough these days.
Aso ran really well in the Ryanair but I think that is probably the peak of his form and he failed to sparkle on his sole attempt over 3m.
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| Silviniaco Conti returns to one of his favourite tracks |
In conclusion, Cue Card can win if he runs to the best of this seasons form. If not Empire of Dirt does assuming the last run was an anomaly and a step back up in trip will bring out his best.
If both fail to do those things it's pretty open but the market has it right with Bristol De Mai most likely of the rest.
3:25 Betway Aintree Hurdle 2m4f
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| The Champion Hurdler looks unbeatable in this company |
Buveaur D'Air expelled any doubts about his return to hurdles at Cheltenham, he was slick and destructive. A return to Aintree where he won as a novice and a step up to 2m4f are further plusses and he should beat this fairly ordinary field with ease.
It is great to see The New One and My Tent Or Yours both lining up against eachother again and they are the most likely for the frame. The New One will prefer the step up in trip but Tent is better off at the prices. Identify Thief is an interesting entry having completely lost his way as a novice chaser this year but isn't really any sort of proposition.
I assume there is prize money for the first 6 so it will be a nice day out for the owners of Old Guard and they may even beat Rashaan to 5th!
4:05 Foxhunters Chase, 2m5f
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| Pacha Du Polder bids for a big double over On The Fringe |
Once bitten, twice shy... but that is not the case with On The Fringe who was just never getting there in time at Cheltenham. Arguably that has always been the weaker leg of the treble with this second leg and Punchestown usually bringing out further improvement and I'd marginally have him to reverse form with Pacha Du Polder who flopped here last year after a promising run at Cheltenham.
From an each way angle there's a lot to like about Rebel Rebellion who as won over this course and distance before and comes here as a fresh horse.
I love Big Fella Thanks who has been round almost as long as I've been a racing fan and will definitely have a sentimental bet on the 15 year old.
Sam Whaley Cohen is obviously very good over these fences so has a chance on Black Thunder.
Balnaslow was among the hoses finishing in a heap at the end of the Cheltenham equivalent and may be better suited if going from the front again.
Mr Mercurial looked really good when beating Mendip Express on return from an absence and is also considered.
4:40 Red Rum Handicap Chase, 2m
Malcolm Jefferson runs Double W's who makes lot of appeal as a progressive 7 year old. He looks marginally better handicapped than Dandridge and Theinval who come here off the back of good runs in the Grand Annual.
Parsnip Pete has good form around Aintree in the past. A the bottom of the handicap Ravens Tower looks like the one with the most improvement but will perhaps not have the race to suit as well as Foxtail Hill whocould also run well with frontrunning tactics being deployed.
5:15 Aintree Mares Bumper, 2m
Not a clue.... Petticoat Tails is top rated with Irish Roe and Shearling not far behind and that seems to be the way that bookmakers have priced this. Sweetlittlemystery doesn't seem to be there on the ratings but has attracted some support.
Polly's Pursuit is presumably a relative of Polly Peachum who was a very good mare and a nose away from winning at Cheltenham. But Oscar Rose will be a highly tentative selection at a price with potential excuses when below par last time out.
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