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Certified headcase Might Bite goes for Gold Cup glory
to give Henderson a big race treble
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Apples Shakira, full sister to Apples Jade opens the
card in a competitive opener. My advice, back her whenever, wherever you can.
The Albert Bartlett will be more attritional than usual given the conditions
and will require a real dour stayer to win it. I really like Flying Tiger in
the county hurdle which means he probably has no chance. The same familiar
faces return for the Foxhunter in which the top amateur jockeys battle for a
Cheltenham winner before the conditionals get their chance in the Martin Pipe.
Then its fasten your seatbelts for the Grand Annual before its all over for
another year.
It’s a tricky day today so it may be best to go easy (or do a Might Bite and go easy then nuts at the end). Whether you’re backing the She Wolf or Edwulf,
Stay Shrewd.
Shrew's
Shrewdies
1:30 – Apple’s
Shakira 5/2 (NAP)
2:10 –
Flying Tiger 12/1, Whiskey Sour 14/1 Mohayed 33/1
2:50 – Talkischeap 20/1, Chef Des Obeaux 5/1
3:30 – FEATURE RACE: GOLD CUP
Road to Respect 8/1
The
Whistling Shrew’s Gold Cup 1-2-3:
1st Road
to Respect – 2nd Our Duke – 3rd Total Recall
4:10 – Burning Ambition 3/1
4:50 – Sire
Du Berlais 10/1 and/or Amour De Nuit 40/1 e.w.
5:30 – North
Hill Harvey 8/1 or Bouvereil 12/1
Key Race Guide
1:30 – Triumph
Hurdle, 2m1f
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Class and Grit. Can Apple's Shakira fend off a highly competitive field?
It makes a man want to speak Spanish.
|
This looks like a strong renewal of the race and it
is a shame We Have a Dream has been withdrawn. But Nicky Henderson still has
the best chance of the winner on what we’ve seen so far this season in Apple’s Shakira. She is unbeaten in 4
runs, the most recent three at Cheltenham and has shown she is gutsy as well as
classy when winning on poor ground last time out. She is a full sister to the
brilliant Apples Jade who was second in this on only her third run and receives
a 5lb mares allowance. For me she should be evens.
There are two things keeping her at a bigger price,
the first of which is Redicean who
has been emphatic in three wins at Kempton this year and will certainly put up
a challenge to the favourite. He is higher rated but slightly behind when
factoring in the mares allowance and the added advantage of course form has me
just siding with Apple’s Shakira.
The second is Willie Mullins who fires another
exciting filly in Stormy Ireland into
this alongside Mr Adjudicator and Saldier. All three look like they could
be classy but have essentially beaten nothing so far and aren’t as battle
hardened as their British counterparts. Farclas
is another horse with potential but was beaten by Mr Adjudicator last time
and I don’t see any reason for him to reverse form.
2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, 3m
To be honest this is really tough. You need a horse
who is a real hard nut to win this, backs of experience and can stay forever.
The ground is an additional factor that makes this a really stern test for
novice hurdlers. The top two in the market have obvious form claims but this
won’t just be about class it’ll be about guts and grit. I’m going to side with Chef Des Obeaux over Santini. I’d also
want one in the guts and grit category and theres quite a few contenders for
this. Second season novice Callet Mad is
as gutsy and gritty as they come and I’ll might regret not making him the section
and there are others who make appeal. But I’ve had my eye on Talkischeap for this as a horse with
runs under his belt and improved form stepped up in distance.
3:30 -
FEATURE RACE: Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3m2.5f
One of the most competitive Gold
Cups in years with eight horses officially rated within five pounds of one
another. The Gold Cup usually goes to the horse that has shown their form this
season which would point towards Might
Bite or Road to Respect.
What to say about Might Bite...
He is obviously talented and probably the most talented horse in the race as he
proved when winning the RSA last year despite his best efforts to throw it
away. His length win over Double Shuffle has
lead many to question the strength of the King George win, but to be fair he
looked like he had a fair bit left in the tank if Nico De Boinville had needed
to ask for it. His stamina for me isn’t really the worry, the worry is more his
quirks at Cheltenham. His wandering up the run in wasn’t the first time he has
done that here having done it twice over hurdles previously. The ground also
makes this a more attritional staying test and you have to wonder whether that
doesn’t play into the hands of some of his rivals who might get him at it
earlier than he’d like. He could win and win well but at the prices I’m content
to look elsewhere.
Road to Respect also has festival
form, running out an easy winner of the Brown Advisory Handicap
last year and
he has looked really good upped to 3m this season in winning the Christmas
Chase at Leopardstown and finishing just behind Outlander at Down Royal. He still looks progressive and will be
freshened up for this. On official ratings he doesn’t have much to find with
Might Bite and though I did have a doubt as to whether beating Oulander and
Balko De Flos amounts to being good enough to win a gold cup it is a trial that
the likes of Synchronised, Denman and Best Mate have taken in on the way to
glory. Balko De Flos’ win in the Ryanair is a big boost to the form. Outlander
has shown no liking to Cheltenham on his three trips here so I’d expect the
same again today. At current odds he looks a good bet to me.
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| R-E-S-P-E-C-T Aretha Franklin wins the Christmas Chase |
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| Cometh the rain, cometh the river. One horse who'll relish conditions |
The ground is a strong plus for Native River and Our Duke. Native River will be a much fresher horse than he was
last year and I’d love to see him win because he’s an exception talent and one
of my favourite horses in training. However, his price fully assumes his late
start to the season can only be a positive and although he looked good on
reappearance when bolting up at Newbury he is a candidate for the bounce factor
and faces stiffer opposition than when third last year. Added to that fact is
that Minella Rocco is five times the
odds and has beaten him twice now at the festival. He would be a credible each
way bet but I have ground concerns and his form seems in decline.
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| The Duke bids to give the Harrington team back to back winners |
Our Duke has had quite the
different preparation following a poor return at the beginning of the season he
was given kissing spine surgery to rectify a back issue and has been raced hard
in the calendar year to get himself back up to fitness. I have an antepost
double from the end of last season with him to win this and Might Bite the King
George so I’m hoping for a big show. The ground will be a plus and I think
he’ll stay all day but at this pace. His weakness is his jumping which
sometimes can be a little guessy. Puppy power will need to fire him into each
fence to avoid any sloppy and costly errors, but I imagine he knows that. The
form last time out, beating Presenting Percy and powering away from him when
6lbs worse off has to be taken very very seriously.
The ground could also be a plus
for Killultagh Vic on only his 5th
start over fences. This horse is undoubtedly very very good having beaten
Thistlecrack over hurdles. He is a past festival winner having won the Martin
Pipe on this card back in 2015. He returned this season after a long absence to
win a hurdle race before looking potentially the winner in the Irish Gold Cup
before falling at the last. On pure talent he could be the winner but there are
question marks over his experience and the preparation he’s had to get ready for
this. You can probably give Mullins the benefit of the doubt on the latter following the exceptional reappearance of Penhill on Thursday.
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| Edwulf the miracle horse goes for the biggest prize of all |
His comeback would be considered
a miracle if it weren’t for the horse who capitalised on his fall to win the
Irish Gold Cup by touching off Outlander on the line, Edwulf, who broke down at Cheltenham last year only to be revived
and nursed back to health. If he manages to place here it would be a stunning
achievement.
Definitely Red was a good winner of the Cotswold Chase which American looked like he would win turning in before hitting a weird
flat spot then running in again. I’d be quite surprised if that form were good
enough to win this but they could maybe hit the frame.
Total Recall is
probably the best each way shout though. It’s not often you’ll get a Hennessey
winner at 25/1 for this so is worth a punt. Anibale
Fly may run well if putting his last race behind him.
Realised I haven't mentioned Djakadam... so Djakadam. Now I have.
The Ground
The ground is a really important
angle in this as it’s going to become a real slog – this favours horses who
have won over further, Our Duke, Native River, Edwulf, Total Recall being four
such horses.
Grade 1 form over 3m+
The other thing I’m looking at is
specifically form in grade 1 staying chases and to be honest it’s few and far
between. Might Bite has it in spades and Road to Respect has improved up to
that level this year. The other again is Edwulf. It is a really condensed Gold
Cup in terms of ratings so is the kind of year a ‘handicapper’ could come up
and simply outstay them, but I still think the ability to beat Grade 1 horses
counts for a lot.
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