The Wandering Shrew - Prix De l'Arc De Triomphe Meeting Day 2 Preview

The world's richest turf race features on a stunning card at Chantilly with 6 group 1s to contest. The

Postponed bids for Arc glory

feature is the Arc in which Postponed bids to extend his unbeaten run to 7. He will have stiff competition from all angles notably super filly Found, Japanese raider Makihiki and dual derby winner Harzand. It is a great supporting card in which my personal feature is So Mi Dar's first trip out in Group 1 company in the Prix De l'Opera. Also, watch out for the Prix de l'Abbaye where Chantilly's 5f course finishes somewhere in the woods.

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:10 - Cavale Doree 6/1
1:45 - Kontrastat 15/8
2:20 - So Mi Dar 4/5 (So Mi Dar- Speedy Boarding forecast)
3:05 - Postponed 2/1

1-2-3 - Postponed - Found - Left Hand

4:35 -Profitable 7/1 e/w
5:15 - Limato 5/6

Shrew's Double: So Mi Dar & Limato to both win.

Race-by-race Guide

1:10 - Prix Marcel Boussac, 1m

A fairly average renewal of the Marcel Boussac where hopefully something can produce an eye-catching performance. Toulifaut has course form but also the car park draw in her bid to give Frankel a group 1 winner. Dabyah won easily at Newbury and is drawn next to her - both will likely aim to settle in midfield and I'd expect the latter to quicken the better of the two.

Promise to be True will need to bounce back from a disappointing run last time out but it isn't beyond her trainer to have horses bounce quickly back. Cavale Doree has a progressive profile and I expect more to come from her. Senga is an interesting one at a price for a trainer with a good record here.

1:45 - Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere (Garnd Criterium), 1m

Kontrastat looked really good last time out and that form makes him the one to beat. Salouen and King of Spades took a few more runs to get going and look quite exposed already. Whitecliffsofdover will likely step up on his last run and presents a challenge to the favourite and (although I'm always wary of O'Brien's second string) looks better than Utah on what we've seen so far. National Defense ran well in defeat here last time out but will have a job to do to overturn the favourite.

Thais is an odd supplementary entry and one to look out for if running better than expected here.

2:20 - Prix De l'Opera, 1m2f

The unbeaten So Mi Dar makes an overdue appearance in

group 1 company

So Mi Dar was the horse that this season really needed. Impressive in winning the Musidora Stakes she would've put up a real contest against Minding in the Oaks, but it wasn't to be with injury ruling her out until a return in September. Thankfully she looked herself and looked to have improved further upon return and I would be delighted to see her pick up this Group 1 prize before perhaps a trip to Ascot or the Breeders Cup to top the year off. Speedy Boarding seems next best.





3:05 - FEATURE RACE - Prix De l'Arc De Triomphe, 1m4f

1. New Bay

Ran a credible third in this race last year when beaten by Golden Horn. He has been hit by injuries this year and as a result hasn't looked quite up to the same level. His run into 4th latest in the Irish Champion Stakes showed promise that he is on the road to full fitness and has a favourable draw. Good place claims.

2. Postponed

Unfairly underrated by many having been winner of the last 4 Group 1's he's contested. The injury that made him miss the King George could be a blessing in disguise as he comes into this with less mileage on the clock than some of his rivals. His Juddmonte win over Highland Reel was promising but all of his best form is over 1m4f and a repeat of his Coronation Stakes 4 1/2 length win over found sets a real standard. This is the third time this season I have previewed a race featuring Postponed and my only objection has been his price. May be too short again but he is the one they all have to beat.

3. Migwar

Likely to be too much for him today.

4. Highland Reel

Reliable in Group 1 company to run his race and was very good when winning the King George. However, usually finds a few too good for him. His draw is not bad and has place claims.

5. One Foot In Heaven

Was underwhelming behind Silverwave in the trials here despite good win in June. Others preferred.

6. The Grey Gatsby

I still love this horse but now needs Lazarus levels of redemption to realistically feature.

7. Silverwave

Switched yards since last year's tenth and has also switched riding tactics to be up with the pace. It seems to have done the trick based on recent performances including a Prix Foy win. His draw means he's likely to get a good pace to follow behind Postponed, Harzand and New Bay who will all want to be in prominent positions. Whether he can go past them though is another matter and he may be vulnerable to late finishes from Found and Makihiki behind him also.

8. Order of St George

A wide draw at Chantilly isn't as bad as at Longchamp as the first bend comes fairly quickly and there's time to jostle for position after it but Frankie Dettori has a real job to do to get Order of St George into a good position. He will need to be in the lead well before the home straight where he can really put his staying credentials to use but whether he will have the raw speed to dominate against a field of horses of this quality who like to be in prominent positions is another matter. Wouldn't rule out another Dettori masterclass and I do absolutely love this horse - but wouldn't back it either.

9. Silijan's Saga

Feels like this horse has been around forever.. I think this is at least his 4th Arc - don't expect him to ever get closer than his 5th on first attempt.

10. Found

No one would begrudge Found victory in Europes richest race

Ultra consistent and ultra likeable filly who met all sorts of trouble in this race last year, which is the only time she's finished out of the frame. 2nd in 5 group 1's this year, she hasn't gotten her head in front in a Group 1 since beating Golden Horn at the Breeders Cup last year. Draw 12 isn't horrendous so long as Ryan Moore can keep her out of trouble, but she wouldn't want to be too far back - could be held by Postponed on Coronation Cup for though and maybe a place awaits again...

Can Harzand continue the success of Derby winners in this race?

11. Harzand

Really tricky to assess as part of me says this horse could be the winner. The weight allowance given to three year olds is generous in this race owing to a good record in recent years. I'm completely willing to forgive his Irish Champion Stakes run where he was struck into quite early on and was never really travelling after that. On ratings his Derby form puts him bang there but it is so difficult to make a case for either the English or Irish Derby form meaning anything. Certainly beating US Army Ranger does not amount to Arc winning form. I expect him to be prominent with Postponed and New Bay but needs to prove he's good enough.

12. Vedevani

Presumably a pacemaker for Harzand?

13. Talismanic

Under the radar but will need a big step up.

14. Makihiki

Makihiki will come late for the Japanese

We're told that this years Japanese crop of 3 year olds is way above average and this is the best of them. There was optimism that this could be the horse to lift the curse that appears to affect Japanese horses in this race until he was drawn 14/16. His Prix Neil form was given a boost by Doha Dream's win yesterday but like so many Japanese champions over the years he's likely to drop in to the rear or midfield by which point the ground he needs to make up may be too much. Think he has a chance but tactics will probably get the better of him.

15. Savoir Vivre

Lightly raced 3 year old will have a lot to do but seems versatile in running style. May be in contention for minor honours.

16. Left Hand

Taking the 'Treve route' to the Arc win winning the Vermielle in good fashion. The Juliet Rose held that form up well when winning yesterday. Again, waiting tactics aren't ideal but she wasn't far away from La Cressonniere here in June which is form to be taken seriously. Again, draw is not in her favour but could run a big race from deep.

Mecca's Angel bids to be champion sprinter

4:35 - Prix de l'Abbaye, 5f

Mecca's Angel is deservedly favourite following a second win of the Nunthorpe at York and has a favourites chance. However, he has not shown anywhere near the same level of form away from his home track so alternatives should be considered.

Goldream won this last year but hasn't looked as good in 2016. Take Cover is usually thereabouts in these races and hits the frame fairly regularly though Group 1 may be beyond him. Just Glamorous is on the up and was really impressive over course and distance in September and has to be considered over Marsha who he beat that day. I always like to see two year olds take on older horses but this may be too much too soon for Ardad.

Profitable is an undoubtedly better horse over 5f than 6 and had excuses at York when taking  a bump early in the race. He has twice beaten Mecca's Angel this term (albeit Mecca's didn't turn up at Ascot) and on that basis given a clear run has to be taken at the odds.

5:15 - Prix da la Foret, 7f

Limato can gain redemption for last year's defeat in this and is one of only a few with proven form over 7f. Suedois looks a good price to repeat his feat from the July Cup and follow him home if winning a battle for 2nd against Spectre.

The Wandering Shrew - Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe Weekend Day 1 Preview

The Arc meeting moves to Chantilly for 2016 with its short straight, tight turns and odd 5f course that finishes somewhere in the woods. Day 1 features the Prix Du Cadran for champion stayers supported by a card of 4 other group races all leading up to tomorrows action featuring 6 group 1's including the Arc itself. There will be an early clue as to how good topcontender Makahiki is as he prepares to give the Japanese a long awaited first Arc win when

Shrew's Shrewdies

Newmarket

4:00 - Volta 7/2

Chantilly

1:00 - Moonshiner 10/3

1:35 - Sotteville 6/1 (nb)

2:50 - Zarak 5/4 or Heshem 9/1 e/w

3:25 - Nearly Caught 6/1 or Vazirabad 11/10

4:12 - Taareef 9/2

Race-by-race Guide

1:00 Prix Chaudenay 1m7f

Doha Dream's latest third here behind Makahiki and Midterm reads as really good form having only been pipped on the line by Arc quality horses. However, for me he was showing no extra at the line and therefore there is a question over whether this step up in distance will fully suit - that said Andre Fabre probably knows what he's doing.... Either way he is too short for me

Marmelo and Peribsen have a short neck between them on previous form but seemingly have a lot to find on official ratings with the favourite and also Moonshiner who is the only one with proven distance form - he is on the up and may not need to improve much further to win this.

You'd assume Minamya and Gontchar are here for minor honours but there is so little known about the variations in form lines between this sextet that they could outrun their odds.

1:35 Prix de Royalieu, 1m4f

Probably one of the tighter races of the day. The Juliet Rose has good course form based on a third here last time out, however was only marginally ahead of Sotteville the previous time with not much between them. The latter having a longer rest before this and further improvement entirely possible.

Mango Tango ran well at this level last time out but was behind Impressionist the previous time at Saint-Cloud who in turn was quite a way behind The Juliet Rose at Deauville. The question for me then is whether Almela can win conceding weight to younger rivals. Too tight to call so I'll stick with Sotteville at an each way price.

2:50 Prix Dollar, 1m2f

Free Port Lux won this last year but is inconsistent at the best of times and doesn't at all have the same form coming into this as last year.

I think Zarak is a solid favourite based on his runs behind Almanzor and you'd expect that to be enough. Yorker is an interesting runner and lost nothing in defeat to Scottish and Quebee over distances shorter than ideal. I'd like the look of Heshem each way based on early season form. Didn't run to his best last time out in what was a classier field than this. Two wins at Chantilly make him in with a shout.

3:25 Prix Du Cadran, 2m4f

Vaziribad is one of the best stayers in the world and barring one below par run when dropped in trip at Saint-Cloud two starts out his form figures read 111-11111 back to July 2015. That includes a win here at Chantilly last time out. On that he should be hard to beat. He is drawn wide however and although that should be less of a problem over this distance than in middle distance races it will still require a good deal of strong jockeyship to get him up. His tendency to settle in rear means that if he is too far back coming into the home straight he might have too much to do against some of the more prominent horses of which there are plenty...

Vazirabad's prep run culminated in a win only by a short neck and though he probably wasn't fully wound up, some attention has to go to the second horse on that day, Nahual, who likes to lead - but again may struggle to do so from stall 12. That task should be easier for Quest for More and Nearly Caught who break out of stalls 8 and 6 respectively and both like to race prominently. Of the two Quest for More feels a little more exposed whereas Nearly Caught is still progressing. I don't think either of them have too much to find on Vazirabad and given the right fractions set in front I would expect them to give him a lot to do if they are far enough ahead turning for home.

Burmese is a really interesting runner. His 5th in the Ascot Gold Cup was promising but I'm not sure how much to rate that form. Course form is always worth mentioning though and Fly With Me is 2/2 here - is preferred as a big priced each way selection over Trip to Rhodos.

4:12 Prix Daniel Wilderstein, 1m

Moonlight Magic has been running in better class races than this in the UK and Ireland but the drop in trip seems an odd choice for the Cape Cross colt.

Taareef was second to Dicton here in April and both seem to have improving profiles for the end of the season. I don't think there will be as much between them as prices suggest.

This is a step up for Zayva who has claims on a good win here last time out. But may be too big an ask? 

The Whistling Shrew St Leger and Irish Champions Weekend Preview

There are no fewer than 8 group races on what promises to be one of the best days of the flat season with top class action both sides of the Irish Sea. At Doncaster the final classic of the season sees hot favourite Idaho take aim to give O'Brien another St Leger, before the evening card at Leopardstown concludes with a red hot Champion Stakes where dual classic winners Minding and Harzand go head-to-head against a field of proven Group 1 talent in what should be the race of the year.

Shrew's Shrewdies

Doncaster

2:00: Champagne Stakes - Thunder Snow 5/2

3:10: Weber Park Stakes - Breton Rock 7/1

3:45: Muntahaa 11/2 or Idaho 8/13

Leopardstown

4:00: Champion Juvenile Stakes - Radio Silence 9/2

5:05: Enterprise Stakes - Stellar Mass 15/2

5:35: Matron Stakes - Persuasive 7/2

6:10: Boomerang Stakes - Awtaad 7/4

6:45: Irish Champion Stakes -  Harzand 11/4 or Hawkbill 14/1 e/w

Irish Champion 1-2-3-4: Harzand - Highland Reel - Hawkbill - New Bay

Runner-by-runner Guide

Doncaster

3:45 - St Leger, 1m6f (3yo)

Idaho has obvious claims here and it is no surprise to see him as an odds-on favourite. On what we know so far it looks as though he will stay the trip and as long as that is assured he should win. That is assuming that his exertions already this season haven't taken their toll already. From a pure numbers perspective it may be worth taking him on - the stamina is assured with Muntathaa and he is the most likely threat if it all does go wrong for the favourite. An each way chances both Housesofparliament and Sword Fighter could hit the frame - perhaps even in another O'Brien 1-2-3

Leopardstown

6:45 - Irish Champion Stakes

The English and Irish Derby winner, An Oaks and 2000 Guineas winner, 2 French Derby winners, Breeders Cup turf winner, King George winner, Prince of Wales winner, an Eclipse winnerand a previous Irish Champion Stakes winner means this is surely the best race in the world this year. It would be easy to say this is just one to savour but there are a few angles in the race that may  give clues as to how it will pan out:

Consistent and classy Highland Reel leads the way for the older hores

1. Highland Reel

1 of 4 O'Brien horses entered here and probably has a better chance than the market suggests. His run behind Postponed in the Juddmonte is really good form and he can be relied upon as not having too many off days. Place chances.





2. My Dream Boat

My Dream Boat pulls off a surprise win at Ascot to beat Found

Was a shock winner of the Prince of Wales stakes when chinning Found on the line - that seemed to be a freak result and he wasn't able to repeat it when quite a way back behind. Has been off since then but would need an unlikely repeat of that form if not better to follow up. Others preferred.

Can New Bay bounce back to his best en route to the Arc?

3. New Bay

Yet to show the same level of form as last year and took a three month break after looking poor on seasons return. His win last time out was fairly easy and has hopefully brought him along a little to be ready for this. Last years Arc 3rd puts him ahead of Found by quite some way. I imagine the Arc is the ultimate aim again, so its hard to tell whether he'll be at absolute peak for this, but if continuing progress should be thereabouts in the final stages. However, he is a prominent runner and has a high draw to overcome so there is that to consider also.

4. Sir Isaac Newton

A surprise supplementary addition to this race and it can only be assumed he is here to make pace for Highland Reel, Found and Minding, having run well in Group 1 company this season without ever looking like a winner at any point - others preferred.

5. Success Days

A consistent sort but really up against it in this company. Have to look elsewhere.

6. The Grey Gatsby

Non-runner.

7. Found

Ultra-consistent and seemingly has a superb engine as she bids to go through the whole season again as she did last year. Was second to Golden Horn last year which on the surface seems good form but probably was flattered by the winner jolting in the final furling. Has been 2nd in her last 4 starts but on form may struggle to hit the frame again today.

8. Almanzor

Impressive in France but will the form stack up?

Winner of the French derby. The form is really hard to assess given the trouble a lot of French trainers have had with illness this year. I suspect the form isn't as strong as the English or Irish equivalents which makes him a bit of a wildcard but one that we can probably ignore, especially given the low price.

9. Ebediyin

Pacemaker for stablemate Harzand

Two derbies and more to come for Harzand?

10. Harzand

Dual derby winner has to have a big chance. Has had a brilliant season and has been well rested since June. He will most likely be being readied for a tilt at the Arc and therefore the worry is whether he is fully wound up for this. I'm also not massively keen on his draw. We'll know how good the form of his last run was after seeing Idaho (who he beat by 1/2 a length) run in the St Leger and US Army Ranger in the Enterprise Stakes. First test against older horses so still has something to prove but could well do it.

11. Hawkbill

Hawkbill needs to bounce back from a poor Juddmonte run

Seems massively overpriced based on his poor showing in the Juddmonte and I'd be inclined to give him another chance especially as conditions will be back in his favour today. The Eclipse proved his potential against older horses and he has a nice draw. Would probably need a repeat of the Eclipse run but something close to that would have to see him in the frame.

12. Moonlight Magic

Should be outclassed by these.

Will exceptional filly Minding still have a career best in the tank?

13. Minding

The best filly of her generation and barring a defeat in a quagmire for the Irish Guineas has been flawless this season - but the question remains: what has she beaten? The form though looking good is yet to be tested against colts or older horses so remains an unknown. It is also questionable whether she'll be fresh for this having had a long season already but if having anything like the same constituency as Found she should be fine and a 10lb weight allowance over older colts has to be a plus.  In a straight head-to-head I'd marginally favour Harzand on form.

The Whistling Shrew - Ebor Festival Day 4 Preview

York - Day 4 Ebor Festival Preview


Shrews Shrewdies


1:45 - Ode to Evening 10/1 e.w. and Scarlet Dragon 7/1
2:15 -  Educate 10/1 e.w
2:50 - Master Blueyes 9/1 e.w.
3:25 - Dream of Dreams 9/1 e.w. or Intelligence Cross 9/1 e.w
4:00  She is no Lady 8/1, Heartbreak City 8/1 or Kinema 10/1.
4:35 - Sutter County 5/2


Shrew's WILDCARDs: 2:15 Yorker 14/1 and 4:00 Shrewd 11/1


Race-By-Race Guide


1:45
It looks like there will be at least 16 going to post for this so 4 places up for grabs each way. Of the market principles Dark Red looked to be on a good run before reaching a plateau when last seen at Epsom in June when beaten by Imshivalla another of whom's form has dropped off since. Snoano seems to be a consistent sort although form over 10f is relatively poor against his 12f form. Erik the Red will probably not enjoy this ground much. Chancery has been out of sorts for a long while but a market move from 16/1 into 7/1 is tough to ignore but I will anyway.


Scarlet Dragon is a fast improving horse and is up 6lbs after a close 4th last time out. Ode to Evening was second that day and is now 3lbs higher however a draw in stall one and a strong galloping track may put his staying credentials to good use. He is one of three Mark Johnston horses and I prefer him to Sennockian Star who has poor form at York.
I could see Batallion also running well here at the top of the weights.


2:15
This is a really nice Group 3 with several proven performers including 2014 winner Custom Cut. He is a consistent performer but gets his head in front far less these days and was beaten earlier in the year by another seasoned campaigned in Tulius who is now off a 9lb higher weight vs Custom Cut than that day. Both will likely have a better chance than the legend that is Gabrial on his 55th career start. The ground will likely be against Air Pilot today. Educate posted a career best last time out over this course, but that was in a big field handicap and todays test will be different. He looks a decent each way price though.


Scottish is a horse with a lot of enthusiasm behind him but was a beaten favourite at Haydock last time out and his Newbury form in beating Trip to Paris didn't stack up yesterday. Diploma is also on the up but form under 1m2f is underwhelming thus far - remains unproven although price suggests there's confidence behind her. I think this is a big ask against the colts.


Yorker is a big unknown having come over from South Africa and being over 400 days without a run. Haggas' record in bringing back horses from long breaks has to be respected and if he is on form then he is officially top rated in the race. and therefore he may be the wildcard in the bunch!


2:50
Effectively the Ebor for three year olds this could be a bit of a lottery (as the betting suggests). There was hardly anything between Shraaoh, Emperor Napoleon, Jameeh and Master Blueyes at Goodwood. Of them Shraaoh and Master Blueyes seemed to be staying on the best towards the end and would have to be fancied over a longer trip.


Kellstorm is a brother to Order of St George and that is good enough to make him fancied. He seems to be fairly level on form with Regal Monarch who has improved with each run up until now but is penalised for a win on Sunday. I could see Forth Bridge developing into a strong stayer over time and he may be well placed in first start in handicap company.


3:25
On paper this should be an easy win for Blue Point and so it may prove. He has about 4lbs on the rest of the field. Mokarris and Mubtasim pose the obvious threats but all form has been on good to firm ground and may therefore be unreliable which makes me prefer more heavily campaigned horses.


The Last Lion I would have like but his form (and the form of Global Applause) ties in with Yalta who was last in the Nunthorpe yesterday so is hard to fancy.Dream of Dreams seems to be a little more battle hardened than some of these which I think counts for a lot and I'd be willing to have him against the field. Intelligence Cross has some decent form behind Mehmas and may also come here with a little more experience under the belt.


Ardad will come into the picture if the going turns to soft.


4:00, Ebor Handicap, 1m6f
In recent years the standard of horses has greatly increased in this race to now have one of the strongest handicap fields on offer, which in turn gives horses at the top of the weights a better chance than before. It is hard to find too many holes in favourite and Northumberland Plate winner Antiquarium who also ran a good 5th here during last years festival. Kinema is another with good form coming into this and could go well dropped back to handicap company.


Top Tug is well handicapped and has some nice course form but didn't look to be staying over 1m4f here last time. There's a lot to like about Heartbreak City though and Tony Martin could have him absolutely primed for this.


Shrewd is always going to be a favourite of the Shrew with a name like that and he has some decent form behind him on previous runs at York, finishing just behind Friday winner Quest for More last time out. May be a bit high in the weights but is worth a shout. She is no Lady looks progressive and could be off of a really nice weight here if continuing her upward curve.

The Whistling Shrew - York Ebor Festival Preview - Days 1 and 2

The Ebor Festival showcases many of the best races on the calendar with The International taking centre stage on Day 1, taking in the Yorkshire Oaks and Nunthorpe on the way to Saturday's big closer, the Ebor Handicap itself.


On Wednesday, the highest rated horse in training Postponed puts his credentials to the test in a classy group 1 field including multiple group 1 winners in The Grey Gatsby, Hawkbill and Highland Reel. Just before that dual Derby-placed Idaho is hot favourite to confirm supremacy over a small field in The Great Voltigeur. Stakes.


Thursday sees the fillies take centres stage with the Yorkshire Oaks as a centrepiece where the super consistent classy Found will put her credentials to the test again. We may see another star filly in the making as Fair Eva lines up in the Lowther Stakes for 2 year olds early on the card. She is 1/2 to get the job done.

Shrew’s Shrewdies

Wednesday

2:30 - Best of Days 5/4

3:05 - Idaho 8/11, Idaho-Imperial Aviator Forecast

3:40 – Hawkbill 9/2

Thursday

2:30 - Fair Eva 1/2  or Nation's Alexander 16/1 e.w.
3:40 - Seventh Heaven 7/2

 Wednesday 17^th August

2:30 – Acomb Stakes, Group 3, 7f

Godolphin purchase Best of Days is hard not to like after an easy 6 length win in his maiden. The form of that already takes him in line with the best of these with more experience. Bear Valley is one with a few runs under his belt and looked good when winning at Goodwood, but you'd expect this track less suited to his running style.


Courage Under Fire was easily beaten by Caravaggio last time out and the price is probably more reflective of his opposition that day than anything he's actually achieved - it depends when Aiden O'Brien is really planning to bring him to the boil but he is still an improving horse. William Haggas who always needs respect here, runs Lockheed who is the most likely to follow the favourite home.


None of the outsiders make much appeal.

3:05 – Great Voltigeur Stakes, Group 2, 1m4f

On paper you'd expect Idaho to win this. His form in being placed in both the English and Irish Derbies makes him the obvious choice...which does make you wonder why Aiden O'Brien runs both Housesofparliament and The Major General (both rubbish horse names) as well? Of the two I prefer the form of The Major General though it is interesting to note the poor record of Galelio colts in this race...


Speaking of breeding... If it weren't for the group 2 penalty, Across The Stars would look like a really nice sort for this and could still definitely give the favourite a run for his money - I think he probably has the best breeding to suggest he'd enjoy the course and distance. Harrison doesn't look up to it but The Imperial Aviator presents an appealing question mark if he can rediscover some of the form he had before flopping in the French derby.

3:40 – Juddmonte International Stakes, Group 1, 1m2f

Postponed will be hard to beat if recovered from injury

Postponed is one of the best horses in the world right now in a race that in recent years has been officially the highest rated in the world with past winners including Frankel , Sea The Stars, Declaration of War and Australia all winning in previous years before Golden Horn’s shock upset by Arabian Queen last year. He has beaten everything put before him since emerging from seemingly nowhere to win last season’s King George including a Coronation Stakes, Prix Du Foy and a Dubai Sheema Classic. Stating the obvious – he has a great chance.

However, he did miss this year’s King George through injury and it remains to be seen if that break has freshened him up or if he is still on the comeback trail – which makes the odds a little shorter than desirable. In his Sheema Classic victory he outclassed this year’s King George winner Highland Reel, who won what in my view was a weak renewal of the race where everything went his way with Wings of Desire a length down in second and Sir Isaac Newton (a likely pacemaker today) further back still.

The problem with both Postponed and Highland Reel is that their best form is over 1m4f and

From strength to strength - Hawkbill bids for further group 1 glory

although both trainers insist their horses will be comfortable over this trip, a true 10f horse at the top level could beat them. Exosphere and Dariyan are yet to really tick that box, so I prefer both of the three year olds – Wings of Desire, although held by Highland Reel at Ascot, has solid course form with a great run here in the Dante at the start of the season. He was disappointing in the Derby but I wouldn’t be surprised if he improved again for the drop back in trip. The one who seems constantly under the radar though is Hawkbill who showed class and grit to beat The Gurka in the Eclipse with Time Test back in third – A repeat of that performance for me would be good enough to beat the older horses here.



The Grey Gatsby edging out Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes

A mention as always goes to one of my favourites The Grey Gatsby who hasn’t been at his best since pushing Golden Horn to the line in last year’s Eclipse. That said, the exaggerated waiting tactics of Jamie Spencer haven’t always worked well for him and a jockey change could be a plus as is the drying ground – a few pounds each way wouldn’t hurt.

Thursday 18^th August

2:30 – Lowther Stakes, Group 2, 6f

Fair Eva - hot favourite to continue the hot streak of Frankel's progeny

Fair Eva has looked brilliant so far and can't be opposed to bring further success to the start of her superstar dads sire career. Queen Kindly has been another one of the stars of Frankel's first crop and is deservedly priced as second favourite in the market. Nation's Alexander and Roly Poly only had half a length between them last time out and with the penalty that the latter incurs from that win I'd expect Nation's Alexander to be ahead today and may well be the bet for a place.

3:40 – Yorkshire Oaks, Group 1, 1m4f

Found - on her way to another Breeders Cup?

Ratings would suggest that Found is a better horse over 1m2f than 1m4f however a second to

Postponed in the Coronation Cup and a Breeders Cup Classic win over Golden Horn make me think that she can't be too bad over this trip. She is the one to beat for sure. However, beat she often is. Despite her obvious class she is only 5/16 and after a short break this race is likely to be seen as bringing her back for a tilt at one of the big end of season prizes. She is the best horse in the race but I have my doubts over whether Aiden would have rushed her back to peak for this. So the question is.... who is going to beat her?

Can Seventh Heaven be cream of O'Brien's Crop?

The answer is, possibly another O'Brien horse in the form of Irish Oaks winner Seventh Heaven who looked impressive on that day scoring a two and a half length victory over Architecture and more notably Ribblesdale winner Even Song who was quite a way back in 7th. That would imply Seventh Heaven has a very good chance here assuming Evensong doesn't bounce back.


It seems with fillies that often being prepared specifically for the day is more important than past form. That would have to be a negative for Turret Rocks and Harlequeen - the latter of whom seems to be held up in a way that indicates she'd probably appreciate a step back in distance but has good place claims again. The same applies to Queens Trust who gave Minding a fair run for her money last time out and was also placed behind Evensong at Ascot .


A completely different form line shows there is not much between Endless Time, Furia Cruzada and Loving Things based on Lancashire Oaks form. That was a group 2 and I expect this form to be higher. It is worth noting that Endless Time is lightly raced this term and has maybe been saved for this but will she have enough to defy the penalty?


On balance I'd say Seventh Heaven has the best chance but wouldn't be surprised if she completely flops in which case perhaps Queens Trust might have her day in the sun.

The Whistling Shrew - Glorious Goodwood - Day 5 Preview

The final day of Goodwood's summer festival sees arguably the best horse we've seen this season in 1000 Guineas, Oaks and Pretty Polly winner Minding who is a deservedly hot favourite in the Nassau Stakes - that race should be easy to determine  (though one bookmaker is offering 10/1 for new accounts). The supporting card however is awash with big field handicaps, including the Stewards Cup, which are all fascinating each way betting feasts.


Shrew's Shrewdies




2:00 Nuno Tristan 14/1 e/w, Misterioso 18/1 e/w
2:35 Shraaoh 7/1 or Soldier In Action 16/1 e/w
3:10 Minding 1/5 (10/1 with Coral - enhanced winnings paid as free bets)
3:45 Dancing Star 5/1 or St Robert Cheval 20/1 e/w


Race-By-Race Guide


2:00 Stewards Sprint Cup, Handicap, 6f


Goodwood is a track where the draw bias seems to be more pronounced than others. It is surprising therefore that many of the market principles here are drawn out of the typically less favourable high draws. Gamesome, Dougan and Protection all come out of draws 21 or higher. Protection is lightly raced and could well have a lot of improvement in him but at the odds I'd be happy to leave him in this size of field.


Of the runners drawn in the low stalls, Nuno Tristan makes some appeal having been a winner at this distance several times. He has been running over an extra furlong lately, but the step back to 6 could see him go close.


Veterans Seeking Magic and Hoof It have enough experience to do well but could be vulnerable to several younger improvers including Ascot winner Misterioso who followed that up with a fairly good run at Chelmsford two weeks ago - he seems to be in form and could hit the frame.


2:35 Qatar Handicap, 1m4f


This is a very tight race with a lot of strong winning form on offer. Dal Harraild is probably a deserved favourite off the back of his last two runs, but Move Up probably just about has the form edge.


This is a big step up for Emperor Napoleon and you'd expect him to be vulnerable. Shabbah looks like a horse with more to come at this trip following a good second at Ascot. Shraaoh could be better handicapped though. He got no run at Ascot and was heavily eased - could be fresh for this?


Mark Johnston is the course specialist. It's a shame that Regal Monarch is a non-runner but after his defection Soldier in Action gets my vote ahead of Jaameh and Beaverbrook - who may be interesting if enjoying this new trip.


3:10 Nassau Stakes, Group 1, 1m1f


Minding wins.


3:45 Stewards Cup, Handicap, 6f


This is one of my favourite handicaps of the year and there is a lot to like about favourite Dancing Star's chances following a couple of wins in big runner handicaps he comes in at bottom weight and I expect him to run well. Orion's Bow also has some great form in the book and could well continue it here.


Of the rest there a lot with potential, but of them I prefer Sir Robert Cheval as an each way bet.

The Whislting Shrew - Royal Ascot Day 5 Preview

Any excuse to show the champ - as his progeny go head-to-head

in the Chesham

The final day of the Ascot extravaganza highlights the Diamond Jubilee Stakes which is a truly international affair this year with USA's Undrafted looking to defend his title. After Queen Kindly's good run yesterday all eyes will be on Frankel's other progeny Cunco and Frankuus who oth line up in the Chesham Stakes. The Wokingham is one of m favourite handicaps and is as impossible to call as ever before the marathon Queen Alexandra concludes the card.

Shrew's Shrewdies

2:30 - The Frankel Forecast! - Cunco and Frankuus RF 33/1
3:05 - Malificent Queen 8/1 e/w
3:40 - Exosphere 5/2 or Simple Verse 13/2
4:20 -  The Tin Man 7/2
5:00 - No idea - Springloaded 10/1, Shared Equity 16/1 and Flash Fire 20/1 all e/w
5:35 - Oriental Fox 4/1

Race-by-race Guide

2:30 Chesham Stakes, Listed, 7f

Cunco impressed on debut but can

he beat O'Brien's Churchill...

Aiden O'Brien (as usual) is having a good week and has another good favourite here in the form of Churchill who looks like a step up to 7f is likely to suit. Assessing maiden form is an unenviable job but on the figures awarded on first run he is not the top rated in the field (though improvement is very much expected)

...or could half-brother Frankuus get it his way?

Instead it could be a tale of two brothers as two of Frankel's sons, both winners first time out go head to head. Cunco was the first Frankel colt to hit a racecourse and though he ran green he looked a little like his famous sire, complete with famous white blaze across his face, when going easily past the leader to win and set the imagination racing about what to expect from Frankel's first crop. What followed was 4/5 maiden wins including today's challenger Frankuus who ran to a similar level when winning at Haydock. It is probably heart ruling head but I hope the race is between the two of them.

Of the others Aiming for Rio was a recent Godolphin purchase and has a bit more experience than most of these without being exposed and could be the most likely to cause an upset.

3:05 Wolferton, Listed Handicap, 1m2f

Malificent Queen hasn't lost a race since debut and has progressed well with each run. In many was it would make sense to just keep backing her until she loses although she may fall victim to one more tactically campaigned. It certainly seems more attractive than favourite Best of Times underwhelming 9th last time out though I'm sure that that did no harm to his handicap mark and the 2nd behind Storm the Stars before that isn't bad form.

Godolphin are having a good week and there other 2 runners are worth a look. Adam Kirby is also having a good week and is in the right sort of form to get the career best needed by Second Wave. Oceanographer looks exposed at this trip.

Sir Isaac Newton's last run 2 lengths behind Portage has worked out fairly well with Portage a good winner this week, but I'm always put off by O'Brien in handicaps. There's a lot to like about Pacify and a first time visor could eke further improvement.

But what about Carlo? Well, What About Carlo, sneaks in at the bottom of the weights which is always a nice place to be, but I'm not sure he has the class?

Fire Fighting looks a silly price considering he was 3rd in this last year. He seems to run every other day and has been out of sorts since and a bounce-back isn't unquestionable.

3:40 Hardwicke Stakes, Group 2, 1m4f

Exosphere looked really good when winning the Jockey Club Stakes in April - the race is a bit difficult to assess with Jack Hobbs being pulled up on the day and his price is probably an overreaction to the win. It was however probably the best form on offer. The one thing that may stop him winning is (again) the less than convenient draw from stall 1.

Frankel again? No - this time Exosphere - will he hold form

with St. Leger winner Simple Verse?

The draw is much more in favour of Leger winner (or was she or wasn't she?) Simple Verse who was second to Exosphere on seasonal debut, but ran a fair way below her best. I expect she'll come on for that run and CD form from last seasons Champions Fillies Stakes is a big plus (as well as a handy 5lb pull).  Beautiful Romance was third to Simple Verse at the end of last season and hasn't yet shown the progression to go beyond that.

Eagle Top was a really good second in the King George here and what Postponed has gone on to do since suggests that he has to be taken seriously but he's run poorly enough since to think he may have peaked on that run. The main contender then may be Dartmouth who has a lot to find on official ratings with the favourite but has been consistently progressive profile including a good win in the Ormonde Stakes over Wicklow Brave last time out. Surely they have to let the Queen win something!

Almodovar is one from leftfield having progressed through handicap ranks - I have no reason to think he's a class 1 contender, but who knows?

Highland Reel's best form would see him go close but his last two runs seem to have shown a decline in progress and he simply doesn't win enough. That said, I wouldn't rule him out.

edit: Eagle Top is now a non-runner

4:20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes, Group 1, 6f

A compact but interesting field including last year's winner Undrafted  who would've wanted better ground for a follow up attempt for Wesley Ward. The international flavour to the race is continued by Hong Kong challenger Gold Fun whose best form thus far seems to come in the winter so probably not ideal.

Will today be the day that patience in The Tin Man pays off?

Twighlight Son would've been the sprint star of last season and is only not favourite because of a poor display on debut at York - I'm not sure what the excuses were that day but you can forgive a horse a bad run - perhaps it was the ground? That race was won by Magical Memory  who is 4 out of 4 when steered by Dettori and could improve further for the run.

But there is something insanely likeable about The Tin Man who has just chugged along in his own time slowly progressing race upon race. He was however 2 lengths down to Twilight Son on Champions Day but a 2 length win over watchable on seasonal reappearance suggests he is about ready to take a prize of this calibre... he is tentatively the selection.

 

5:00 Wokingham Stakes, Handicap, 6f

An artists impression of the Wokingham which will

be as ridiculous as always

Way too many variables! - Be aware of those who are there more for the owners to have a day out... other than that looking for a seasoned campaigner in 6f handicaps.

5:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes, Listed, 2m5f

Last year's winner Oriental Fox has a really good chance of following up, with Clondaw Warrior the obvious main danger. Amour De Nuit is the progressive danger for them both to look out for.

The Whistling Shrew - Royal Ascot Day 4 Preview

Pure Class - Order of St George comes late to win the Gold Cup

Whilst everyone was watching a nail-biting finish to Englands victory over Wales, a horse named for the occasion really stepped up and delivered as Order of St George proved his stamina (and some) in landing the Ascot Gold Cup. It was a messy and attritional race where he seemed to have a luckless run especially coming down the back straight, but really should his class when picking up on a run around the outside to win well over his rivals. I think he has the speed to win in anything 1m4f+ and the rumour he may go for the King George here in July is mouthwatering.

At times Royal Ascot feels like it goes on for one day too many, but that's not the case with todays card. The excellent addition on the Commonwealth Cup last year means there is a great back to back of Group 1s as the centrepiece. Irish 1000 Guineas winner Jet Setting, who vanquished Minding that day will be the star name in the Coronation Stakes but there is a great supporting cast in the Albany and Edward VII before the card concludes with the Duke of Edinburgh stakes and the Queen's Vase staying race for 3 year olds.

Shrew's Shrewdies

2:30 Cuff 9/4 or Queen Kindly 7/1 e/w

3:05 Carntop 9/2

3:40 Quiet Reflection 2/1 or Chiekljack 8/1 e/w

4:20 Nathra 13/2

5:00 Missed Call 16/1 e/w

5:35 Ebediyin 7/2

Race By Race Guide

2:30 Albany Stakes, Group 3, 6f

Another 2 year old sprint, hooray... The market is lead by Aiden O'Brien's Cuff and you can see why given that she is a good 10lbs ahead of her rivals on RPRs - the form of her last win was mildly upheld by the second that day Yulong Baobei putting up a fair run when 7th of 21 in the Windsor Castle here on Tuesday. She is probably the one to be with, albeit with a really unusual pedigree that would make her seem like an Oaks contender more than a sprinter but hey-ho.

That pedigree makes it worth looking for an each way back up. O'Brien's second string Brave Anna shaped like there was more to come when winning a maiden last time out. Grizzel is an interesting runner for Richard Hannon having won both races so far. Wesley Ward runs Create a Dream who may go well but may fall into the same ground pitfalls of most (Lady Aurelia very much excluded) of his other runners this week.

Kilmah has a straight form line with Cuff through beating Seafront last time out; on literal terms that would put her 2lbs behind Cuff with more possible improvement to come from that debut as she was slow away on that day. Romantic View has a good run at Ascot under her belt before winning a maiden well last time with probably a better level of form than Kilmah.

I would love Queen Kindly to get the job done here as a daughter of the insurmountable Frankel. She won an easy enough maiden by 5 lengths and it seems so far that you can't go wrong with her pedigree.

Jim Bolger's Oh Grace has a bit more experience or is more highly exposed than most of these depending how you look at it but might be a good price. The same goes for Sea of Snow who started off nicely before being beaten by Legendary Lunch last time out - the form of which now doesn't seem top notch.

3:05 King Edward VII Stakes, Group 2,  1m4f

Can favourite Beacon Rock overcome an inside draw?

This is a really interesting race for horses not quite good enough for the derby and is headed on ratings by Beacon Rock who got a first win of the season under his belt at the Curragh last month. The draw has stuck him on the inside sandwiched between 2nd and 3rd top rated Humphrey Boggart and Carntop. The draw bias is most prominent at Ascot over this distance and really favours horses coming from outside as otherwise you have to accelerate into a prominent position before slowing down into the sharp turn at Swinley Bottom and its near impossible to get the horses balance right after that... or, if you let someone else go ahead its hard to pass. Therefore, perhaps at my peril, I'm going to ignore the favourite and Humphrey Boggart. Carntop though may have a better run from stall 3.

Taking it to the other extreme the surprisingly lucrative car park draw goes to Choreographer, who is one of two Sea The Stars colts and is preferred to half brother Across the Stars who ran a poor 10th in the derby. Choreographer had an absolutely luckless run in the Dante when squeezed out twice when trying to make a move but still closing at the line albeit back in 7th. He was also held up that day, which probably won't suit, but a return to his maiden winning tactics of just letting him run under a keen hold will suit this track better. Giving him the benefit of the doubt and hopefully a trouble free passage he'll hopefully go better here.

Linguistic poses an interesting threat and seems to settle well behind leaders. That prominent racing style will suit this race - first time blinkers should also help.

3:40 Commonwealth Cup, Group 1, 6f

Quiet Reflection could be the star in the second Commonwealth

Cup

There is less strength in depth than there was when Muharar beat a top field in this last year but the favourite Quiet Reflection sets a good standard with her 3 1/2 length win over Donjuan Triumphant last time out. There is an argument that the softer ground may see a reverse in those placings but it would have to be a significant reversal.

Log Out Island won a bizarre race at Newbury last time out when 10 lengths clear 2 furlongs out with his opponents finally clocking on and closing at the line. He may repeat it and make us all look fools but until then it's an anomaly.

French raider Cheikeljack is really interesting having beaten Jersey Stakes winner Ribchester last time out. Is that good enough form to win a group 1? Is this race a good group 1? 8/1 is a fair price to find out.

4:20 Coronation Cup, Group 1 (3yo fillies), 1m

Jet Setting proved her class on soft ground when beating

Minding in the Irish Guineas

The weather has unfortunately kept away Ballydoyle and Minding is absent due to her Oaks exploits. However, her Irish Guineas vanquisher Jet Setting sets a really good standard here. She is the best horse in this race and what has been achieved to date is enough to win, especially on this soft ground (her flops have come on good ground or better). She was purchased for 1.3 million earlier in the week and her new owners will be hoping she can get the job done.

However, she's clocked up a fair bit of mileage already this season and it's worth looking at the rest of the field, the most interesting of which are Nemoralia and Qemah. Nemoralia looks the one who is laid out for this race having not competed in a Guineas. There is an odd bit of form in Doncaster last year where she won with Jet Setting back in 8th (on good ground), connections would take the same margin again today. Qemah was a good third in the French Guineas between Nathra and Besharah the latter of whom has been more exposed in subsequent runs. Excluding the run in the Newmarket Guineas Nathra has a really nice profile for this.

Alice Springs is a good filly on her day and its not uncommon for O'Brien's fillies (unlike the colts) to go in and out of form with no real rhyme or reason. Could be a threat if turning up.

5:00 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, Handicap, 1m4f

No strong opinion on this race - I like Elite Army but he may be up against it off top weight. It will be interesting to see how Ivan Grozny goes in a bid for an unusual Aintree/ Ascot double. I'd go for Missed Call if I had to pick one.

5:35 Queen's Vase, Listed (3yo), 2m

There are a lot of unknowns in this race as always and as you'd expect from a 3yo stayers race at this stage in the season. Favourite Ebediyin has exceptional breeding in line with previous Gold Cup winners and I wouldn't put anyone off of him.

Aiden O'Brien runs three the best of which is Landofhopeandglory who is second highest rated on what's been done so far, just behind Ormito who has shaped like he will like this distance but is vulnerable to improvers behind him.

Harbour Law is useful and seems to get better the further he goes.

The Whistling Shrew - Royal Ascot Day 3 Preview

Still thee centrepiece of the Royal Meeting - Can O'Brien

lift another Ascot Gold Cup?

Day 3 hosts the meeting centrepiece The Ascot Gold Cup over 2m4f for which last years emphatic Irish Leger winner Order of St George will be a favourite for Aiden O'Brien. He looked unbeatable that day and will be tough to pass again if the master trainer has brought him along to step up to this trip. Elsewhere, Oaks second Architecture looks to prove herself a top quality filly in the Ribblesdale, there are competitive fields for the Tercentenary and Norfolk stakes and two more handicap cavalry charges in the Britanna and King George V. Not that anyone will be watching until the handicaps as it's England vs Wales!

Shrew's Shrewdies

2:30 - Global Applause 9/4
3:05 - Hawkbill 9/2
3:40 - Even Song 3/1 or The Black Princess 11/1 e/w 
4:20 -I want Order of St. George evs or Pallasator 11/1 e/w
5:00 -  Manson 18/1 e/w or Out and About 9/1
5:35 -   Guy Fawkes 8/1 or Point of View 14/1 e/w

Race-by-Race Guide  

2:30 Norfolk Stakes, Group 2, 5f

There's nothing I hate more than a 2 year old sprint. On what's been achieved so far Ed Dunlops  Global Applause and O'Brien's Peace Envoy seem to be ahead on ratings with Legendary Lunch just behind. It would seem to be between these three with the wild card being American raider Red Lodge who may be blunted by the speed. 

Global Applause clearly has a lot of raw speed but maybe will be stopped on the ground? I'd tentatively go with Peace Envoy on the basis that he has won on soft already.

Godolphin's Silver Line seems well supported in the market but there is no evidence to back that up...yet...

3:05  Tercentenary Stakes, Group 3, 1m2f

Another competitive race wit not much between Blue De Vega, Hawkbill and Steel of Madrid with Long Island Sound, Abdon and Prize Money just behind

In the past the race has rewarded a horse that is match fit with two or more seasonal runs under their belt. That will suit Steel of Madrid and Blue De Vega. Blue De Vega probably has the better form based on a 3rd in the Irish Guineas, whereas Steel of Madrid is proven at the trip after a 1m2f win last time out.

Hawkbill beat Abdon last time out so I'm not sure why Abdon is favourite? That win for Hawkbill was over the right distance in the right ground, whereas Blue De Vega looked at his best on drier ground at the end of last season but his breeding would suggest he'd enjoy a step up in distance.

Long Island Sound is three from three this year, but there are still a lot of unknowns about him.

3:40  Ribblesdale, Group 2 (3yo fillies), 1m4f
Architecture was left in front a long way out in the Oaks whilst Minding struggled through the pack to eventually pick her off. That Oaks form is by far and away the best on offer here alongside her previous defeat to Seventh Heaven, but you have to wonder whether 13 days is enough recovery time in a race notorious for massive improvements.

The Black Princess, Shall We, We Are Ninety and Chicardo all make appeal but the best of the bunch may be Even Song who was left out of the Oaks to facilitate Minding and saved specifically for this; you'd expect her to be strongly in the mix to give the favourite a race.

4:20 Ascot Gold Cup, Group 1, 2m4f

Order of St George blitzes his rivals in the Irish Leger

The way in which Order of St George won last years Irish Leger would've had me backing him to take on Golden Horn in the Arc had he gone there, he was that good and it's no surprise he is a short favourite here. However, he didn't and Aiden O'Brien has taken him down the same route as his legendary superstar and 4 time Gold Cup hero Yeats. He proved last year with Kingfisher's close 2nd that he knows how to get a top staying performance out of horses and if he's worked his magic to squeeze another 6f out of Order of St George he could be an impressive winner.

To do so he will need to beat more proven stayers including Max Dynamite - Willie Mullins' runner was deemed an unlucky third in the Melbourne Cup and should see the distance out. But he was beaten earlier this season by Pallasator who is an absolute lunatic, but seems to be behaving better with age - he could blow his chance before the start or he could be slightly below the form required to win in group 1 company.

Pallasator seeing off Flying Officer -

Can he keep his head at Group 1 level?

Mizzou  has already locked heads this year with Flying Officer and come out the better of the two, Clever Cookie separated the pair in the Sagaro  and followed up nicely with a win just ahead of Curbyourenthusiasm over 1m6f in May with both staying on really well to the line. Curbyourenthusiasm is much the younger horse so could have more improvement in the tank
however Flying Officers course win in the stayers race on champions day last year was very good and I think he'll go well. Mizzou ran here last year in a disappointing 7th, but the stamina test is not beyond him.

5:00 Britannia Stakes, Handicap, 1m

It might be easier next year to have just one 1m handicap with 150 runners? just an idea...

No strong opinion here - Let's go with Manson

Ryan Moore has left his Coolmore rides to ride Out and About for William Haggas which is probably foolish to ignore.

5:40 King George V Stakes, Handicap, 1m4f

The Queen hasn't had a winner in a while... so how about Guy Fawkes