The Whistling Shrew - Royal Ascot Day 4 Preview

Pure Class - Order of St George comes late to win the Gold Cup

Whilst everyone was watching a nail-biting finish to Englands victory over Wales, a horse named for the occasion really stepped up and delivered as Order of St George proved his stamina (and some) in landing the Ascot Gold Cup. It was a messy and attritional race where he seemed to have a luckless run especially coming down the back straight, but really should his class when picking up on a run around the outside to win well over his rivals. I think he has the speed to win in anything 1m4f+ and the rumour he may go for the King George here in July is mouthwatering.

At times Royal Ascot feels like it goes on for one day too many, but that's not the case with todays card. The excellent addition on the Commonwealth Cup last year means there is a great back to back of Group 1s as the centrepiece. Irish 1000 Guineas winner Jet Setting, who vanquished Minding that day will be the star name in the Coronation Stakes but there is a great supporting cast in the Albany and Edward VII before the card concludes with the Duke of Edinburgh stakes and the Queen's Vase staying race for 3 year olds.

Shrew's Shrewdies

2:30 Cuff 9/4 or Queen Kindly 7/1 e/w

3:05 Carntop 9/2

3:40 Quiet Reflection 2/1 or Chiekljack 8/1 e/w

4:20 Nathra 13/2

5:00 Missed Call 16/1 e/w

5:35 Ebediyin 7/2

Race By Race Guide

2:30 Albany Stakes, Group 3, 6f

Another 2 year old sprint, hooray... The market is lead by Aiden O'Brien's Cuff and you can see why given that she is a good 10lbs ahead of her rivals on RPRs - the form of her last win was mildly upheld by the second that day Yulong Baobei putting up a fair run when 7th of 21 in the Windsor Castle here on Tuesday. She is probably the one to be with, albeit with a really unusual pedigree that would make her seem like an Oaks contender more than a sprinter but hey-ho.

That pedigree makes it worth looking for an each way back up. O'Brien's second string Brave Anna shaped like there was more to come when winning a maiden last time out. Grizzel is an interesting runner for Richard Hannon having won both races so far. Wesley Ward runs Create a Dream who may go well but may fall into the same ground pitfalls of most (Lady Aurelia very much excluded) of his other runners this week.

Kilmah has a straight form line with Cuff through beating Seafront last time out; on literal terms that would put her 2lbs behind Cuff with more possible improvement to come from that debut as she was slow away on that day. Romantic View has a good run at Ascot under her belt before winning a maiden well last time with probably a better level of form than Kilmah.

I would love Queen Kindly to get the job done here as a daughter of the insurmountable Frankel. She won an easy enough maiden by 5 lengths and it seems so far that you can't go wrong with her pedigree.

Jim Bolger's Oh Grace has a bit more experience or is more highly exposed than most of these depending how you look at it but might be a good price. The same goes for Sea of Snow who started off nicely before being beaten by Legendary Lunch last time out - the form of which now doesn't seem top notch.

3:05 King Edward VII Stakes, Group 2,  1m4f

Can favourite Beacon Rock overcome an inside draw?

This is a really interesting race for horses not quite good enough for the derby and is headed on ratings by Beacon Rock who got a first win of the season under his belt at the Curragh last month. The draw has stuck him on the inside sandwiched between 2nd and 3rd top rated Humphrey Boggart and Carntop. The draw bias is most prominent at Ascot over this distance and really favours horses coming from outside as otherwise you have to accelerate into a prominent position before slowing down into the sharp turn at Swinley Bottom and its near impossible to get the horses balance right after that... or, if you let someone else go ahead its hard to pass. Therefore, perhaps at my peril, I'm going to ignore the favourite and Humphrey Boggart. Carntop though may have a better run from stall 3.

Taking it to the other extreme the surprisingly lucrative car park draw goes to Choreographer, who is one of two Sea The Stars colts and is preferred to half brother Across the Stars who ran a poor 10th in the derby. Choreographer had an absolutely luckless run in the Dante when squeezed out twice when trying to make a move but still closing at the line albeit back in 7th. He was also held up that day, which probably won't suit, but a return to his maiden winning tactics of just letting him run under a keen hold will suit this track better. Giving him the benefit of the doubt and hopefully a trouble free passage he'll hopefully go better here.

Linguistic poses an interesting threat and seems to settle well behind leaders. That prominent racing style will suit this race - first time blinkers should also help.

3:40 Commonwealth Cup, Group 1, 6f

Quiet Reflection could be the star in the second Commonwealth

Cup

There is less strength in depth than there was when Muharar beat a top field in this last year but the favourite Quiet Reflection sets a good standard with her 3 1/2 length win over Donjuan Triumphant last time out. There is an argument that the softer ground may see a reverse in those placings but it would have to be a significant reversal.

Log Out Island won a bizarre race at Newbury last time out when 10 lengths clear 2 furlongs out with his opponents finally clocking on and closing at the line. He may repeat it and make us all look fools but until then it's an anomaly.

French raider Cheikeljack is really interesting having beaten Jersey Stakes winner Ribchester last time out. Is that good enough form to win a group 1? Is this race a good group 1? 8/1 is a fair price to find out.

4:20 Coronation Cup, Group 1 (3yo fillies), 1m

Jet Setting proved her class on soft ground when beating

Minding in the Irish Guineas

The weather has unfortunately kept away Ballydoyle and Minding is absent due to her Oaks exploits. However, her Irish Guineas vanquisher Jet Setting sets a really good standard here. She is the best horse in this race and what has been achieved to date is enough to win, especially on this soft ground (her flops have come on good ground or better). She was purchased for 1.3 million earlier in the week and her new owners will be hoping she can get the job done.

However, she's clocked up a fair bit of mileage already this season and it's worth looking at the rest of the field, the most interesting of which are Nemoralia and Qemah. Nemoralia looks the one who is laid out for this race having not competed in a Guineas. There is an odd bit of form in Doncaster last year where she won with Jet Setting back in 8th (on good ground), connections would take the same margin again today. Qemah was a good third in the French Guineas between Nathra and Besharah the latter of whom has been more exposed in subsequent runs. Excluding the run in the Newmarket Guineas Nathra has a really nice profile for this.

Alice Springs is a good filly on her day and its not uncommon for O'Brien's fillies (unlike the colts) to go in and out of form with no real rhyme or reason. Could be a threat if turning up.

5:00 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, Handicap, 1m4f

No strong opinion on this race - I like Elite Army but he may be up against it off top weight. It will be interesting to see how Ivan Grozny goes in a bid for an unusual Aintree/ Ascot double. I'd go for Missed Call if I had to pick one.

5:35 Queen's Vase, Listed (3yo), 2m

There are a lot of unknowns in this race as always and as you'd expect from a 3yo stayers race at this stage in the season. Favourite Ebediyin has exceptional breeding in line with previous Gold Cup winners and I wouldn't put anyone off of him.

Aiden O'Brien runs three the best of which is Landofhopeandglory who is second highest rated on what's been done so far, just behind Ormito who has shaped like he will like this distance but is vulnerable to improvers behind him.

Harbour Law is useful and seems to get better the further he goes.