The Whislting Shrew - 2000 Guineas Preview

For me the first classic of the flat season is where it all begins and we could be in for a treat as red hot favourite Air Force Blue leads the field for the 2000 Guineas. If successful he will follow in the footsteps of Gleneagles, Camelot, Henrythenavigator, George Washington and Rock of Gibraltar to be Aiden O'Brien's 8th winner of the race. The only doubt may come through his sire War Front who's colts often look vulnerable on softer ground and don't tend to train on as well at three years old... but if he's as good as we think then maybe he won't need to.

Godolphin field 3 including the only horse to have beaten Air Force Blue as a 2 year old in Buratino, who has shaped more like a sprinter thus far, you expect he will be ridden to come with a late run but stamina may not out the trip. Herald The Dawn is a half brother to previous winner Dawn Approach but looks easily held on form here. Ribchester has some nice form in the book having beaten Log Out Island last year and his price is reflective of his run this season when hanging badly and being disqualified back to 5th. He may be a decent one at a price if we forgive that run.

Proven at the trip however are Stormy Atlantic and Peter Chapel-Hyam's Marcel winners of the Craven Stakes and last seasons Racing Post Trophy respectively. Stormy Atlantic's win over early Derby fancy Foundation looked easy and he may will improve again, though one suspects the recent nature of his victory has shortened the price somewhat. Marcel on the other hand went off a criminal 33/1 when beating the same horse Foundation by half a length further. He stayed on well that day and one would expect he will get further than a mile as his ideal trip, but any softness in the ground will be a plus.

Good words have been said about both Massat and Galelio Gold from their connections. Massat, the mount of Paul Hannagan, has been beaten by Air Force Blue before and will have a lot to do to reverse the form - he may be one for the notebook and more experience would've been ideal here. Galelio Gold could well improve but would significantly need to.

The rest seem outclassed.

Shrew's Shrewdie

12/1 Marcel e/w

1-2-3-4

Air Force Blue - Marcel - Massaat - Buratino

2000 Guineas Runner-By-Runner Guide

Air Force Blue commands the field in the Dewhurst

1. Air Force Blue
Obvious choice. Winner of two key trials in the National Stakes and Dewhurst and quickened impressively both times. Best trainer in the world. Best jockey in the world. Ticks every box bar the price but will be hard to beat. The stats on his sire War Front may be the only negative and as we haven't seen him yet this season it is hard to be certain how good he is or can be, but even a repeat of last years form would be good enough to land most Guineas. Highest rated 2 year old since Frankel - is he a superstar?

2. Air Vice Marshall
Likely pacemaker for stablemate, but hasn't been seen for a long time. If ridden to place then he might well do so. A speculative bet at 40/1 if you like that kind of thing.

3. Buratino

Buratino impressed beating Air Force Blue in the Coventry

The only horse to beat Air Force Blue in another race that throws up winners for this in the Coventry at Royal Ascot. Air Force Blue reversed the form in the Phoenix Stakes and you have to expect at full fitness has him held. Suspected he'll be better over shorter but could well place.

4. First Selection
Will probably go from the front and assure a good pace but no form in the book to suggest he can figure at the business end.

5. Galileo Gold
Good vibes and won a good hattrick of races as a 2 year old showing improvement in each and beating Ibn Malik, but will need to have come on further to challenge. Vibes from Frankie Dettori is that he has but he will have to find a lot and need one or two others to flop.

6. Herald The Dawn
Quite a way behind Galileo Gold in latest run. Ran better behind Air Force Blue in the National Stakes, but still quite a bit to find on principles.

7. Kentuckyconnection
This will be a nice day out for his (Kentucky)connections, I hope they enjoy it.

Racing Post Trophy winner Marcel will appreciate the bad weather

and could be here under the radar

8. Marcel
Showed nothing impressive in his maiden before winning well next and becoming a surprise winner of the Racing Post Trophy - The late season form should always be taken with a pinch of salt but on pure ratings he seems the one most likely to follow Air Force Blue home. Sire was 4th in the French Guineas and a subsequent group 1 winner over a mile and that's enough for me. Has the (other) best jockey in the world on board. He may be an autumn horse...but we don't know that, 12/1 seems big enough to take the risk.

9. Massaat
Held on Dewhurst form by Air Force Blue but took a big step up from previous maiden win. Difficult to tell how good he might be, but represents a decent each way bet.

10. Ribchester
Up against it, but forgiving his last run may bounce back but doubtful it will be enough.

11. Stormy Atlantic

Newmarket was possibly wetter than the Stormy Atlantic on

trials day - he may well run well again.

Winners of the Craven Stakes don't have a great record in following up in the Guineas and even if the other horses don't improve from last year he may still only just be on par. The run however does prove he's healthy and well and if drifting to an each way price may become interesting.

12. Zhui Feng
No reason he'll hit the frame other than perhaps being a little fitter after a run out.

13. Zonderland
No reason he'll figure.

The Whisltng Shrew - Grand National Aintree Festival Review

Rule the World jumps round to Grand National glory

Rule the World - Winner for Mouse

Morris with The Last Samuri and Vics Canvas behind

The National winner always has a great story behind it but there’ll unlikely be one as emotional for this. I said in the preview Mouse Morris would have to be a genius to get Rule the World to win and it turns out he was. The trainer, whose son tragically died in Argentina last year from carbon monoxide poisoning, doubled up on his Irish National win with Rogue Angel last month to land the biggest prize of all. Add this to Don Cossack’s Gold Cup and it’s a year to remember for Gigginstown whose owner Michael O’Leary will likely retire the winner after what was remarkably his first win over fences from a horse who had recovered from two pelvic injuries earlier in his career. A sensational winner and one to really remember, especially for 19 year old jockey David Mullins (Willie Mullins’ nephew) who will be a top jockey in the future.

A slog in the mud, perhaps too much today for the heavyweights

including Many Clouds, with the winner stalking

Rule The World was helped hugely, as several were, by the consistent rainfall which turned the ground to the heavy side of soft before the off a fact emphasised by the fact that only 3 of the 16 finishers were carrying more than 11 stone and two of them were 14^th and 16^th. As soon as the skys opened overnight it was bad news for Holywell who wasn’t travelling from the start and only made it to the second fence – perhaps off a better stride he would’ve gone further? Four out we had the two favourites out to the front, The Last Samuri (who stayed well to second and may have won on better ground) and Many Clouds, who had too much out of his favour with the weight and ground. He tracked a good line around but probably found himself in front a little too soon.

Just behind those two at four out was Morning Assembly who gave Davy Russell a lovely spin

The principles to the front - joint favourites battling for the 2nd

circuit

around the outside but in the end just didn’t see it home finishing 8^th. Also bang there was Shrewdies 100/1 shot Vics Canvas, whose jockey somehow survived being catapulted out the saddle at first Beechers to guide his 13 year old mount to be right there at the last and run on into an absolutely brilliant 3^rd place. Goonyella is one who would have liked the ground but came from a little too far back running on well into 5^th. Gilgamboa and Ucello Conti emphasised the Irish dominance in the soft ground by taking 4^th and 6^th.

The runners jump Beechers brook

All this meant that Nicholl’s and Mullins only had 2 finishers between them and they were both Nicholls’ in Unioniste, who got round well in 10^th and Just a Par (15^th). Silviniaco Conti, as expected, hated the hustle and bustle and was pulled up before the first circuit. Saint Are travelled well for the first circuit but didn’t like the ground either. There was only one hairy looking incident at The Chair where Mullins pair Sir Des Champs and On His Own both came to grief but both got up quickly and returned none the worse, which as always is great news and a credit to the new Aintree national course.

On the rest of the card, Yorkhill made hard work of winning the novice hurdle when pulling all the way around but eventually his class gave him a 2 ¼ length win over Le Prezien. Douvan and Thistlecrack showed no so much worry in their victories – It will be exciting if we get to see the two of them go head to head next year! Maggio who was 4^th reserve for the national emphasised the quality of this years race when scoring at 50/1, with Ubak (16/1) franking the Coral Cup form in the opener. Ivan Grozny looked ridiculously handicapped in the last to give David Mullins another victory following up on his national

Shrew’s Shrewdies Aintree Festival Review

Arzal 11/2 (1^st)

Cue Card 5/4 (1^st)

Annie Power 4/7 (1^st)

Starchitect 10/1 (3^rd)

God’s Own 14/1 (1^st)

Ballyoptic 9/1 (1^st)

Barcadys 5/1 (1^st)

Yorkhill (1^st), Douvan (1^st), Thistlecrack (1^st) Treble - Evs

Goonyella 22/1 (5^th)

The Last Samuri 11/1 (2^nd)

Vics Canvas 100/1 (3^rd)

Automated 15/2 (2^nd)

We'll be back in 3 weeks to cross the Irish Sea for Punchestown where we may see the decider between Don Cossack and Cue Card, before previewing the beginning to the Flat season in the 1000&2000 Guineas.

The Whistling Shrew - World Famous Grand National Preview and Runner-By-Runner Guide 2016

Shrewdies,

The big one is here! The world’s greatest Steeplechase; as 40 runners tackle 30 obstacles on their way to potential glory – only one can be victorious and it takes a horse that can travel with speed, stay the trip, jump fluidly and show the guts to see out the last 2f around the elbow and up Aintree’s famous home straight. It is the Grand National, a race unlike any other in character and reserves racing immortality for those who get in front.

Many Clouds and Saint Are reignite their battle for National glory

The top weight this year is Many Clouds whose name is already on the trophy from his win last year as he bids to give jockey Leighton Aspell a historic hattrick in the race but he will be challenged by what is on official ratings the highest rated field ever to line up. They will all have to make it through a frenetic first circuit, over Bechers and Valentines, navigate the best route over Foinavan and around the Canal Turn, over the biggest fence in the country in The Chair and then over the water jump to start the second circuit and do it all again – any still up with the pace then stand a chance.

Mullins has edged ahead of Nicholls in the race for champion trainer but a win in this race for either would surely seal the deal. They are both throwing a lot at it and much like firing bullets in the dark if you get enough luck with the ricochets one might hit its target. Nicholls has even been tempted to fire his most valuable bullet of all in the form of stable star and multiple King George and Aintree Bowl winner Silviniaco Conti who adds some real class to this edition. It used to be the case you could cut out the top ten and bottom ten in the handicap and have a pretty good chance the winner would be somewhere in the middle but now there is quality throughout and this should be a top renewal in the revival of the world’s greatest race.

Before that though, there is a quality card. We have already been treated to two quality days of the Aintree Festival. Day 2 looked bleak for Shrewdies with only Starchitect coming in third for each way punters at 10/1 with 33/1 Party Roc winning after which Buveur D’air proved superior to Limini in the novice hurdle.  The each way punters were then further rewarded when God’s Own capitalised from the shock fall from long odds on favourite Vautour when travelling smoothly – he just landed wrong and the chance was gone. Eastlake scored in the Topham showing that Jonjo O’Neill still knows how to get one handicapped for the big occasion (a point to note for the big race later) before Ballyoptic and Barcady’s delivered a Shrewide double to finish the card. (As a side note, ‘Bally Bingo’ will again be in force today – full points to the first person to spot all the Bally… runners – there’s at least 4)

Thistlecrack tops an exciting supporting card with 3 grade 1s

We don’t have time for a full race by race today, but if we did it would look something like this: The three grade ones are dominated by odds on favourites; if you can forget the fall of Vautour on Friday then it is probably one of the easiest odds on trebles you’ll ever see. If that’s your kind of thing then Yorkhill, Douvan and Thistlecrack should all oblige and win easily in their respective races. If like me, you can leave an odds on treble then still tune in to watch the best novice hurdler, novice steeplechase and distance hurdler in training do their thing as they are some animals. Mydor has a nice mark in the opening handicap. Knock House ran well at Cheltenham and Jack Kennedy will be fancied on Automated in the last. It’s 5/4 there’ll be a false start to the National… that seems good odds.

Shrew’s Shrewdies

1:45 – Mydor 10/1 e/w Long House Hall 10/1 e/w

2:25, 3:00, 3:40 – Yorkhill, Douvan, Thistlecrack Treble Evs(?) – or any of them to win 5 lengths or more…

4:20 – Knock House 8/1, Cerrunnos 8/1

5:15 – FEATURE RACE: The Grand National – See below... (at the very bottom, 5 against the field)

6:10 – Automated 15/2

But that’s not what you came for… So without further Ado:

The Whistling Shrew’s World Famous Grand National Runner-By-Runner Guide

This test is unique – we are looking for a horse that is quick enough but stays. A solid jumper who will take to the fences (so proven course form is a plus) and one who has the grit and will to win. Once we’ve whittled it down we then consider the handicap mark, who is well treated, who less so, who may have had their chance in another year and who may have been plotted for this all along. Even with that knowledge a lot of chance is involved. Most bookmakers pay 5 places so I go for 5 against the field, but read the below and make your own mind up. Also – be sure to take the prices in the morning or ask to take the current price if you are betting in shop! Good Luck, Gamble Responsibly and most importantly stay shrewd:

1.       Many Clouds

Many Clouds on his way to glory in 2015

I adore this horse. I followed him all the way through his campaign last year when he was one of the stars of the season landing the Hennessey and Cotswold Chase before coming here off of second weight and winning the National. He has proven he takes well to the test and is a dour stayer and solid jumper. He is only up 1lb on last year’s win and if he can get into a rhythm will surely be in with a chance. On paper this is a higher quality field than last year and his price is by no means as attractive as last year, but is one for the frame. Shortlisted.  

Sometimes underrated but all class -

Silviniaco Conti will need to prove he can stay

2.       Silviniaco Conti

This horse is the class act of the race. He has won two King Georges and two Bowls as well as a Novice Chase here at Aintree. He is brilliant and somehow still underrated. Much of that is down to poor performances at Cheltenham but his flat-track form is superb. His form showed a few signs of slowing down this season before bouncing back to his very best last time out. He will likely take to the fences and have no problem being prominent. He has been ridden with a tendency to lead in recent years and an all the way victory would be unlikely. Definite class act but a doubt about staying ability and performances in a bigger field. He either pulls up or goes close. Shortlisted nonetheless

3.       First Lieutenant

Another horse who it’s been really easy to like over the years. He is a complete warrior and has had some great spins out this season when placed behind Smad Place in the Hennessey and a narrow defeat at the hands of Gold Cup 3^rd Don Pol in the Lexus. He is up high in the weights based on form of yesteryear and ran an ok race when down the field here last year. He’ll give Bryan Cooper a decent spin but others preferred.

4.       Wonderful  Charm

Another gun for Nicholls to fire – his form is decent enough and he has been a consistent performer in graded company without every reaching the very top. He did have a good run on the Mildmay course last year but you’d be wanting him to beat the horses that beat him on that day. All his best form seems to be over shorter so others make more appeal.

5.       Ballynagour

Another frequent performer in top class graded chases and on his day looks like a top top horse though admittedly it hasn’t been his day for a little while. He’s been running in all the right races with all the wrong results and his Aintree form is fair but unspectacular. Could do something at a price but others are more likely.

6.       O’Faolain’s Boy

It was unfortunate O’Faolains Boy got injured after an exciting novice campaign that saw him win the RSA in 2014. It has been good to see him back this season and his run from the front challenging Smad Place in the Gold Cup showed some encouragement for the future. He is probably still on the comeback trail and I hope he’ll go well again next year. You’d have wanted him to be a little closer at Cheltenham to prove staying credentials to consider him today.

7.       Gilgamboa

Interesting runner for master cross country trainer Enda Bolger with fair form behind some classy horses including Carlingford Lough and most recently a 5^th in the Ryanair behind Vautour. That race would be an unusual prep for the national but shows a fair degree of pace. He’s also shown decent stamina over three miles and is worth another look at the price. Shortlisted. 

8.       On His Own

2^nd in a dramatic Gold Cup behind Lord Windermere an was well fancied for this race in 2012 and 2013. No form to get excited about since but will give Patrick Mullins a decent enough whirl without challenging.

Chance to redeem an unlucky fall?

9.       The Druid’s Nephew

There is a school of thought that The Druid’s Nephew had this race at his mercy when slithering on landing 5 out last year. He was travelling well and leading at the time. My view is that Many Clouds and co were snapping on his heels and likely about to make their bids that time and there was still a long way to go. He came into that race after a great win at Cheltenham that showed him to be well handicapped and is 5lbs higher today. I can’t help but think his chance was last year and he would’ve been beaten then too. That said, Neil Mulholland has given him a quiet campaign to aim him at this ad he shaped well in defeat behind The Last Samuri last time out – that’s enough for him to be shortlisted but others may edge it.

10.   Triolo D’Alene

He shouldn’t really have a chance and pulled up last year when tailed off, but a Hennessey win in 2013 and a Topham win do put a doubt in the mind and I’m prepared to write him off. More worthy than some, but not shortlisted nonetheless.

11.   Rocky Creek

Another bullet for Nicholls and one he is firing for the third time with increasingly worsening results. He shaped well 2 years ago before fading on the run in back to 5^th. Last year came in 17^th and after an abject season you’d expect a further slump wouldn’t be out of character. On the plus side, he should get over the fences so that’s at least one positive.

12.   Sir Des Champs

Another real old grinder and it’s been great to see him back this season. On previous form, 2^nd behind Bob’s worth in the 2013 Gold Cup before injury he would surely have been near the top of the weights for this. He hasn’t shown enough to say he’d be up for this but could be a wildcard. He was the choice of Ruby Walsh before breaking his wrist, so that counts for something…

13.   Holywell

Holywell beating Don Cossack 10 lengths in 2014

I am conflicted – Holywell doesn’t look like a National horse as he’s too small – he reminds me of Clan Royal who went bravely ahead and clear a decade ago only to be carried out by loose horses before Bechers. He is the only horse I have bet antepost for the race and here’s why: Watch his performance at Aintree (albeit the Mildmay course) in the novices race – He absolutely obliterated a class field including (then RSA winner) O’Faolain’s Boy, Grand National Favourite Many Clouds and 2016 Gold Cup winner Don Cossack by 10 lengths. The Cheltenham race he won before that is the same race he ran a good second in this year behind Un Temps Pour Tout. That was one of his best performances but his best rating came when upped further in distance to 3m2f. He should stay, look at his Gold Cup fourth behind Coneygree for further evidence. We have seen on Friday how Jonjo O’Neill trains horses for handicaps with the win of Eastlake and there was something eyecatching about Holywell’s early runs this season that made me think if he ‘miraculously’ returned to form then he could be well in – and sure enough he ran a big race at Cheltenham. His weight here is unaffected by that run and the form puts him just 3lbs below Many Clouds where here he has almost a stone in hand. The caveat here is the ground and the dryer it gets the better it is for him – though good to soft should be fine. The big field is a plus as he is all grit. In my view he is either off the boil and pulls up, doesn’t take to the fences or he is primed to run a blinder and go close. Shortlisted, fancied. (also note: this is a horse I’d probably follow off a cliff so take all hyperbole with a pinch of salt)

14.   Shutthefrontdoor

This horse was right there at the last in 2015 on AP McCoy’s last National ride before weakening into 5^th on the run in. It’s decent enough form to say he’ll get round but he hasn’t shown as much this year so others preferred on this occasion.

15.   Soll

It feels like Soll has been around forever and he is 11 but lightly raced with only 20 chase starts under his belt. He will give you a good spin and I expect him to complete but likely a similar fate to his 9^th last year or worse awaits.

16.   Buywise

Exactly the sort of horse that would win this at 50/1 – has always been fancied in handicaps but never delivered. Completely unproven at the test but a decent level of form in big races and just as everyone loses faith he wins the national. To be fair, the horse has shown his best form this season and if he’s going to do it it will be now. I’m not putting him up, but if he wins there will be plenty of annoyed deserters out there.

17.   Boston Bob

An interesting runner for Mullins and a grade 1 Aintree winner lurking this low in the weights catches the eye. His Punchestown Gold Cup win two seasons back over Long Run and First Lieutenant makes him worth a look. He didn’t seem to ever go on from those runs but the failed Grade 1 superstar is often a good angle in this race and for that reason he is shortlisted.

18.   Aachen

Probably weighted to best, but is better than a 100/1 shot having beaten Wonderful Charm and Knock House at Cheltenham in December and he’s a decent jumper. Does however seem to leave his best form in Winter but wouldn’t put anyone off having a pound on him.

19.   Morning Assembly

This is what a well handicapped horse looks like and he has a direct form line through Holywell on their Cheltenham run who I have gushed enough about above. The horse was third in O’Faolain’s boys RSA before injury took him off for 21 months. He has been nursed back slowly and made steady improvements that make me think he’s been campaigned with this in mind. I think he’ll stay, my concern being he was passed by The Young Master on the run in at Cheltenham and has quite a few lengths to make up on Holywell. The staying test may set up a better pace for him and he should jump well. I like Davy Russell but he’ll want to ride him less patiently than his famous style usually dictates, one thinks he could’ve been closer at Cheltenham if ridden right. If he does, he could go very well. Shortlisted.

20.   Double Ross

Won’t Stay – Has decent run in the Topham previous but can’t really be considered.

Goonyella - Proven stayer and a good jumper

21.   Goonyella

Probably the best name to shout, so let’s hope he wins for that if nothing else. Win in Midlands National and 2^nd in Scottish National give a lot to like. He was closing on the winner last time out. Was 9/17 in the Beecher Chase which wasn’t his best form but showed he liked the fences and probably wanted further. He is a definite national horse and fairly treated. Shortlisted.

22.   Ucello Conti

Famed for the tactics of Belgian jockey Jacques Ricou who took him as wide as the barrier would allow last time out and still managing to come third, he is the only entry for Gold Cup winning trainer Gordon Elliott and the second Conti in the race(!) so there’s a lot to like. His two previous runs have been on heavy ground over 3m1f and he has run well in both. Big unknown in the ground but may well feature. Shortlisted.

23.   Unioniste

Off a much better mark than last year when falling at the 4^th. He subsequently got round in the Beecher Chase so you’d expect a better crack at the fences this year but that jumping will be a worry and he may lose valuable lengths on the way round. Others preferred.

24.   Le Reve

I thought this was a Paul Nicholl’s horse but its not… Good jumper with a consistent level of form. Has run well in trips over 3m without winning. Just misses out on the shortlist because of that.

25.   Gallant Oscar

Will like a big field and will stay. Form isn’t anything to go crazy about but handicap win at Punchestown last May is decent enough, following a third behind the Druid’s Nephew at Cheltenham. Not quite the same form this year but mark still high enough and he’s a lot worse off at the weights than his Cheltenham foe and therefore will perhaps regrettably just miss the shortlist.  

26.   Onenightinvienna

Very unexperienced but Cheltenham second to Blaklion in December shows he’s fairly good. Could be anything, but as it stands isn’t so let’s not complicate things any further for the sake of it.  

27.   The Last Samuri

The Last Samuri is the best handicapped horse in the race

I call this zone from 25-30 the ‘golden zone’ when looking at National hopefuls who fall in to a great spot in the handicap and this horse has been a fancy since winning a trial at Doncaster last month. He’s 12lb well in and should really expect to figure in the finish. Kim Bailey has had quite the season in big Saturday races and it would fit that story were he to win here. Because of the hype, I don’t like his price at all, but he’s won over 3m2f and in a 15 runner field the previous time both on flat-tracks and it would be hard not to include him on the shortlist.

28.   Kruzhlinin

There aren’t many horses I wouldn’t want to win a national, but Kruzhlinin was one of the 60 Rooney owned horses taken from Donald McCain’s yard at the beginning of the season and moved to another trainer, in this case Phillip Hobbs. It would be heart-breaking for the McCain’s who have such a rich history in this race see him win. That said… He’s a much better horse for his new yard and may improve on his 10^th place here 2 years ago. But probably not by much. Will get round and may hit the frame if others underperform but not shortlisted.

29.   Rule The World

An odd entry and not one associated with stamina – Mouse Morris showed he’s a genius target trainer with his Irish National win this year but this really would be something else.

30.   Just a Par

Good winner of the Sandown Gold Cup last spring but weakened here in the Beecher chase suggesting the pace may be a bit too hot. Looks off a decent mark and could run well at a price for Paul Nicholls without hitting the frame.

31.   Katenko

This is another old favourite of mine – he nearly died of colic a couple of years ago and it was great just to see him back on a racecourse.  I’m not really sure how he got into the race as he hasn’t done anything since coming back but will be good to see the big fella over the obstacles.

32.   Vics Canvas

2^nd to Just a Par in the Sandown Gold Cup last year when carrying two stone more… Winning form over long distances and a decent 5^th in the Beecher chase… these are the kind of things I like in a 80/1 outsider, despite two poor runs latest. Shortlisted.

33.   Black Thunder

I’m surprised Paul Nicholl’s isn’t running the stable girls… Has a good jockey on board who likes the fences and that alone could get this horse into a place but he’d need a lot to go his way and completely forget the form of every run this year.

34.   Ballcasey

Brought down by Balthazar King last year – doubtful stayer and was towards the rear at the time. Katy Walsh will probably give him a decent enough spin.

35.   Hadrian’s Approach

Interesting and has been plotted quietly. Nicky Henderson has shown another side to his training this season in bringing his old stars back. He won the Sandown Gold Cup 2 years ago before a long time off the track. Previous run showed some promise but this is probably too much too soon.

36.   Vieux Lion Rouge

I quite like this horse and follow him regularly but he’s highly unlikely to like this trip.

37.   Pendra

Big talking horse who finally delivered at Ascot in October; form tends to dip in spring and is probably out of his depth anyway.

Can Saint Are go one better this year?

38.   Saint Are

A lot to like. Paddy Brennan has been having a much better time since falling in the Gold Cup picking up the Bowl with Cue Card and Melling Chase with God’s Own. This is a great opportunity to go well in the National on last year’s second. He is off a lovely weight, 1lb lower than last year and has everything to like. Seems absolutely prepped for this allowing him to find his way through winter, giving him a run into 7^th in the Beecher chase before a decent win at Doncaster showing him in much better form than he was last year. His prep was a couple of weeks later this year but recovery shouldn’t be too much of an issue and he’s fancied to be thereabouts again. Shortlisted.

39.   Home Farm

I like a hurdles prep to protect a chase handicap mark and Home Farm has had just that; I just don’t think the pure form is good enough.

40.   The Romford Pele

Ray Parlour will be pleased he’s made it into the national and bottom weight is never a bad place to be… Is a decent enough sort and progressed well since 2014 but I would hope others have more quality.

And then there were 12!:

Shortlist: Many Clouds, Silviniaco Conti, Gilgamboa, The Druid’s Nephew, Holywell, Boston Bob, Morning Assembly, Goonyella, Ucello Conti, The Last Samuri, Vics Canvas, Saint Are

5:15 The Grand National, 4m2 ½f

Many Clouds and Saint Are hold obvious claims as the 1-2 from 2015. Course form is everything here and the ability to jump round and stay is a big plus for both of them. Many Clouds has done nothing this season to suggest he won’t run as big a race, whereas Saint Are has had a quieter campaign and sneaks in at the bottom of the handicap. There is a 2lb swing and there were 2 lengths between them last time so the maths would suggest a dead heat… but it doesn’t always work like that!

Last year’s winner will be challenged for favouritism by one of the best handicapped horses in the race The Last Samuri who beat The Druid’s Nephew last time out when in receipt of 6lbs. There is only 4lbs between them today which leaves The Druid’s Nephew with still 8lbs to find on his 10 length defeat, which is all largely academic if The Last Samuri doesn’t take to the fences. I’d have a bigger question mark over whether The Druid’s Nephew would’ve stayed last year if he didn’t have the unfortunate fall – which may make the whole form line redundant!

I am clearly in love with Holywell almost as much as Many Clouds – seriously, here is the youtube link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQdjp4NWTsQ to his destruction of Don Cossack (and Many Clouds) here two years ago. If he gets his ground I think he will relish this – rain would be a concern if it turns soft. I think he is more suited to the test than Silviniaco Conti – I’d love Conti to prove me wrong but I just don’t think he will get home – if he does then he wins, so if he’s still travelling three out then an in-running bet may be a good idea! If I like Holywell then I also have to like Morning Assembly who shaped well behind him at Aintree and I think has been prepped well for this and will be a strong stayer – speed may be his problem and Davy Russel may have to give him a more prominent ride than he’d be used to, but he’s got a great chance if taking to the test better than Holywell.

Then there’s the Irish... who haven’t had a winner since Silver Birch in 2007. Goonyella looks the sort after two big national runs at Uttoxeter and Ayr but will need a career best which he will get if it rains. Ucello Conti may have been given too much of the benefit of the doubt after Jacques Ricou’s obscure ride and therefore looks underpriced. Mullins hasn’t won the national since Hedgehunter and there’s something under the radar about Boston Bob that I like but it is a pure hunch. Gilgamboa is an attractive price but has a lot to find on staying form.

80/1 is a great price for any horse and that horse might as well be Vics Canvas if that’s your kind of thing.

Rain is a negative for Holywell but a positive for the Irish and Many Clouds.

Many Clouds is probably too short at 8/1 but the proven record is a plus. I will back him anyway as he's pretty much an old friend by now and will include him in multiples,  but otherwise:

Shrew’s 5 Against the Field (in no particular order): Holywell 18/1, Morning Assembly 22/1, Saint Are 16/1, Goonyella 22/1 and The Last Samuri 11/1

One at a big price for those who like that: Vics Canvas 80/1

The Whistling Shrew - Aintree Grand National Festival Day 2 Preview

O

n Day 1 of the Aintree festival the quality came to the fore with Cue Card redeeming himself after his Gold Cup fall with an easy win in the Aintree Bowl. Djakadam didn’t quite seem himself back in

Cue Card a popular winner of the Aintree Bowl

third and that allowed Don Poli to give his running and score second place ahead of his stablemate. The placed horses edging Willie Mullins a little higher up the prize money table – something that he moved ever closer towards in the Aintree Hurdle where the Champion Hurdle 1-2-3 repeated the feat with Annie Power hosing up ahead of My Tent or Yours and Nichol’s Canyon.

It was something special then to mean that Annie Power wasn’t the most impressive Willie Mullins runner or even the most impressive mare of the day with Apple’s Jade reversing form with Ivanovich Gorbatov to the tune of 42 lengths – a massively impressive performance on only her 4^th start. Where next?

In the opener Arzal scored a deserved all the way victory over his rivals. On the Fringe proved why he is the very best hunter chaser around with Pacha Du Polder not staying on under prominent tactics. He will be short odds for the Fox Hunter treble at Punchestown.

Donald McCain has had a miserable season with over 50 horses moved to other stables. Wins for Cue Card and Annie Power will always be emotional affairs but this was perhaps the story of the day for racing fans seeing Katachenko winning the race named after Red Rum, the horse that cemented his father’s legacy at the course of his greatest triumphs.

Day 2 offers further quality and a chance for Willie Mullins to take the lead from Nicholls as Vautour lines up in the feature Melling Chase. We are over the national fences once more in the Topham and theres the small matter of 3 novice grade 1’s to whet the appetite.

Shrew’s Shrewdies

1:40 - Starchitect 10/1 e/w, Tycoon Prince 8/1 e/w

2:15 – Agrapart 8/1 e/w

2:50– Un Temps Pour Tout 7/4 – Otago Trail 20/1 e/w

3:25 – Vautour ¼ - God’s Own 14/1 to follow him home

4:05 – 4 e/w against the field: Minella Reception 16/1 , Astracad 33/1, Bishops Road 12/1 (if he comes here and not the National – if not back him for that instead) Top Cat Henry 25/1

4:40 – Ballyoptic 9/1 e/w

5:15  - Barcadys 5/1 - Bolving 20/1 e/w

Race-By-Race Guide

1:40 – Handicap Hurdle, 2m4f

A nice easy handicap hurdle to start the card.... Paul Nicholls will be aiming to claw back some ground before Mullins fires some more big guns later in the day: Ibis Du Rheu is up 4lbs for his Cheltenham win and could yet improve further. Stablemate San Bento seems to hit the frame regularly enough without winning.

Melodic Rendevouz has been a great horse over the years but you'd expect he's now on the downgrade.

Blazer ran well in the Coral Cup and is preferred to the other JP McManus runner Box Office, albeit he has an attractive handicap mark. Possibly more so than Champagne at Tara.  Starchitect also had a good Cheltenham run - he feels the type of horse to win one of these fairly soon.

Clondaw Kaempfer won here in 2014 but doesn't seem the same horse nowadays.

A lot of 1's next to your name isn't a bad thing as a progressing novice and Ma Du Fou may have a chance now in handicapping company.

The twinkle in Gordon Eliot's eye when Tycoon Prince is mentioned is hard to forget for a trainer with such strength in depth. The 117 days off don't worry me a bit and only add to this looking like a good weight for him - He would need to have trained on well to be up for this but is the potential hidden superstar in the field.

Virgilio could also bounce back.

As an interesting side note, subsequent Grand National first and second Aurora's Encore and Sunnyhillboy won this race a few years before their national efforts so maybe worth keeping an eye on for future winners!

2:15 – Novice Hurdle, 2m

It’s hard to know how much Limini had in hand over her rivals at Cheltenham as it all seemed like easy work for her – racing for the first time against the geldings will be telling… Her most likely opponent to beat will be Buveer D’Air who defends his trainers excellent record in the race. He probably wasn’t seen to best effect when third in the Supreme and could improve again on that run. It’s probably between these two.

The main danger to them is Agrapart who was an emphatic winner of the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and if the ground stays soft may well have a big part to play in the finish. I’d take Newbury form over Cheltenham to translate well at Aintree and he’s probably better place value than the win on the principles.

If one is to emerge from the pack at a price it could be Three Stars who hasn’t been since November and may spring a surprise.

2:50– Mildmay Novice Chase, 3m2f

This is a good renewal of this race which pits gutsy RSA winner Blaklion against Cheltenham handicap winner Un Temps Pour Tout. Blaklion has had a long season and was more likely prepared to peak at Cheltenham, contrasting that to Un Temps Pour Tout who had a large spell off, no doubt with the handicap in mind, and will be fresher as well as quicker around a sharper track.

 

Un Temps Pour Tout bids to beat RSA winner Blaklion

Ballyalton is the third Cheltenham winner in the field. He steps up in trip today but will have a bit to find on the principles on form. The horse he beat that day ran a respectable 4^th on Day 1 behind Arzal and you’d expect a similar sort of fate awaits.

Out Sam was a beaten favourite behind Un Temps Pour Tout at Cheltenham and there’s no reason he’ll reverse form off level weights. Similarly with Roi Des Francs 6^th place behind Blaklion.

Native River was another beaten by Un Temps Pour Tout but has improved well since then up to being 2^nd behind Minella Rocco at Cheltenham. He has a strong chance but is likely a better stayer so the speed track may not suit.

Henri Parry Morgan and Otago Trail both come in under the radar having not run at Cheltenham. The former is fast improving and may have been fancied if it weren’t for a dire Aintree run on his only other appearance here. Otago Trail looks a nice one at a price and the step up in trip could well be a plus and is worth the risk.

3:25 – Melling Chase, 2m4f

Vautour wins without doubt and represents a better interest rate than you’d get from the bank. Ironically, it is probably the weakest horse in this race Clarcam who is one of only two horses ever to beat him over fences (the other being Cue Card by a nose). That was at Christmas a couple of years ago when Vautour was an improving novice and would take a minor miracle to happen again today.

Vautour will be near impossible to beat

It should be fairly close between the rest who will surely be racing for 2^nd. Al Ferof lost nothing in defeat back in 4^th and 3^rd behind Vautour in the Ryainair and King George respectively though his two Aintree runs to date have been a shade below his best.

God’s Own put in a career best just missing out on the frame in the Champion Chase and should improve bounds for a spring campaign and maybe improve past Al Ferof. He was beaten by Vibrato Valtet in November but should now reverse that form. That said, Vibralto may be a fresher horse after crashing out early in the Ryanair. Somersby has been the wrong side of 10 years old sometime now but the decline in form has been slow and he always has a place squeak in these races even if the bet is 98% sentimental.  

4:05 – Topham Chase, 2m5f

Over the national fences this can be even trickier to call with more runners having potential chances. It probably warrants a runner-by-runner guide but I haven’t got time!

It’s a real shame Bishops Road didn’t quite make it into the National field as first reserve (assuming one hasn’t come out before 1pm today) If he does make it in at bottom weight then lump on! He is joined by some good horses at the top including Willie Mullins’ Turban who has been laid out for this for some time and will make a bold bid. Village Vic was progressing well before a poor show at Cheltenham

Astracad is one who has gone well around Aintree in the past and is an old favourite of mine. Pass The Hat has a decent chance too.

Mr Moonshine will jump the fences fine and seems to have come back to form on last few runs despite being handicapped to his best.

Minella Reception I like a lot. Ran well in second on his only other run at Aintree, seems well handicapped despite a flop last time and his best form seems to come in bigger fields.

I always like a bottom weight horse in a handicap and Richard Newland knows how to ready them round these fences, so Top Cat Henry might hit the frame.

If anyone tells you that they categorically know, they are lying.

4:40 – Sefton Novices Hurdle, 3m

It’s not quite the Topham but this is still fiercely competitive.

Gangster was pretty disappointing in the Albert Bartlett when the English form seemed to dominate. Perhaps a shorter journey over on the ferry will be to his benefit and he could bounce back. That would put him in the mix.

Baoulet Delaroque ran well in 5^th in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham but this probably demands a bit more and he won’t be as fresh as Ballydine who looks a good sort for this after good second at Doncaster last time out and is second highest rated behind Bellshill who seems to run over any old distance but has been largely off the boil in recent starts for Mullins – maybe this trip will suit better? 

But I do love an unexposed improver and Ballyoptic is just that. I like Twiston-Davie’s form and he’s won at good tracks over this distance which suggests a big run here. If that’s not enough Baoul’s and Bally’s for the commentator, Brian Cooper rides Balko Des Flos who probably won’t win but will like the softer ground.

Tomngerry wins my favourite name of the day and could pick up a place if handling the step up in class.

This race often throws up a big price winner and so it’s worth looking at the top of the market. Potter’s Legend at 16’s will do if that’s your cup of tea.

5:15  - Aintree Champion Bumper

Ballyandy faces a tricky task to achieve the double

This is probably between the Cheltenham bumper 1-2-3 all of whom are top horses for the future.

Yes, Simon Holt its another race full of 'Ballies" and I think Ballyandy is potentially a superstar, Battleford isn’t bad either. Battleford has 4lb in hand today due to Ballyandy’s penalty and that just edges it for him. But more interesting might be the third Barcadys who has 5 lengths to find but will eat up the softer ground here.

They hold most of the rest bar perhaps Bolving who could have won by as far as he liked on debut and is the wildcard in this pack.