Shrewdies,
The big one is here! The world’s greatest Steeplechase; as
40 runners tackle 30 obstacles on their way to potential glory – only one can
be victorious and it takes a horse that can travel with speed, stay the trip,
jump fluidly and show the guts to see out the last 2f around the elbow and up
Aintree’s famous home straight. It is the Grand National, a race unlike any
other in character and reserves racing immortality for those who get in front.
 |
| Many Clouds and Saint Are reignite their battle for National glory |
The top weight this year is Many Clouds whose name is already
on the trophy from his win last year as he bids to give jockey Leighton Aspell
a historic hattrick in the race but he will be challenged by what is on
official ratings the highest rated field ever to line up. They will all have to
make it through a frenetic first circuit, over Bechers and Valentines, navigate
the best route over Foinavan and around the Canal Turn, over the biggest fence
in the country in The Chair and then over the water jump to start the second circuit and do it all again –
any still up with the pace then stand a chance.
Mullins has edged ahead of Nicholls in the race for
champion trainer but a win in this race for either would surely seal the deal.
They are both throwing a lot at it and much like firing bullets in the dark if
you get enough luck with the ricochets one might hit its target. Nicholls has
even been tempted to fire his most valuable bullet of all in the form of stable
star and multiple King George and Aintree Bowl winner Silviniaco Conti who adds
some real class to this edition. It used to be the case you could cut out the
top ten and bottom ten in the handicap and have a pretty good chance the winner
would be somewhere in the middle but now there is quality throughout and this
should be a top renewal in the revival of the world’s greatest race.
Before that though, there is a quality card. We have already
been treated to two quality days of the Aintree Festival. Day 2 looked bleak
for Shrewdies with only Starchitect coming in third for each way punters at
10/1 with 33/1 Party Roc winning after which Buveur D’air proved superior to
Limini in the novice hurdle. The each
way punters were then further rewarded when God’s Own capitalised from the
shock fall from long odds on favourite Vautour when travelling smoothly – he
just landed wrong and the chance was gone. Eastlake scored in the Topham
showing that Jonjo O’Neill still knows how to get one handicapped for the big
occasion (a point to note for the big race later) before Ballyoptic and
Barcady’s delivered a Shrewide double to finish the card. (As a side note,
‘Bally Bingo’ will again be in force today – full points to the first person to
spot all the Bally… runners – there’s at least 4)
 |
| Thistlecrack tops an exciting supporting card with 3 grade 1s |
We don’t have time for a full race by race today, but if we
did it would look something like this: The three grade ones are dominated by
odds on favourites; if you can forget the fall of Vautour on Friday then it is
probably one of the easiest odds on trebles you’ll ever see. If that’s your
kind of thing then Yorkhill, Douvan and Thistlecrack should all oblige and win easily
in their respective races. If like me, you can leave an odds on treble then
still tune in to watch the best novice hurdler, novice steeplechase and
distance hurdler in training do their thing as they are some animals. Mydor
has a nice mark in the opening handicap. Knock House ran well at
Cheltenham and Jack Kennedy will be fancied on Automated in the last. It’s
5/4 there’ll be a false start to the National… that seems good odds.
Shrew’s Shrewdies
1:45 – Mydor 10/1 e/w Long House Hall 10/1 e/w
2:25, 3:00, 3:40 –
Yorkhill, Douvan, Thistlecrack Treble Evs(?) – or any of them to win 5 lengths
or more…
4:20 – Knock House
8/1, Cerrunnos 8/1
5:15 – FEATURE RACE:
The Grand National – See below... (at the very bottom, 5 against the field)
6:10 – Automated 15/2
But that’s not what you came for… So without further Ado:
The Whistling
Shrew’s World Famous Grand National Runner-By-Runner Guide
This test is unique – we are looking for a horse that is
quick enough but stays. A solid jumper who will take to the fences (so proven
course form is a plus) and one who has the grit and will to win. Once we’ve
whittled it down we then consider the handicap mark, who is well treated, who
less so, who may have had their chance in another year and who may have been
plotted for this all along. Even with that knowledge a lot of chance is
involved. Most bookmakers pay 5 places so I go for 5 against the field, but
read the below and make your own mind up. Also – be sure to take the prices in
the morning or ask to take the current price if you are betting in shop! Good
Luck, Gamble Responsibly and most importantly stay shrewd:
1. Many
Clouds
 |
| Many Clouds on his way to glory in 2015 |
I adore this horse. I followed him all the
way through his campaign last year when he was one of the stars of the season
landing the Hennessey and Cotswold Chase before coming here off of second
weight and winning the National. He has proven he takes well to the test and is
a dour stayer and solid jumper. He is only up 1lb on last year’s win and if he
can get into a rhythm will surely be in with a chance. On paper this is a
higher quality field than last year and his price is by no means as attractive
as last year, but is one for the frame. Shortlisted.
 |
Sometimes underrated but all class -
Silviniaco Conti will need to prove he can stay
|
2. Silviniaco
Conti
This horse is the class act of the race. He
has won two King Georges and two Bowls as well as a Novice Chase here at
Aintree. He is brilliant and somehow still underrated. Much of that is down to
poor performances at Cheltenham but his flat-track form is superb. His form
showed a few signs of slowing down this season before bouncing back to his very
best last time out. He will likely take to the fences and have no problem being
prominent. He has been ridden with a tendency to lead in recent years and an
all the way victory would be unlikely. Definite class act but a doubt about
staying ability and performances in a bigger field. He either pulls up or goes
close. Shortlisted nonetheless
3. First
Lieutenant
Another horse who it’s been really easy to
like over the years. He is a complete warrior and has had some great spins out
this season when placed behind Smad Place in the Hennessey and a narrow defeat
at the hands of Gold Cup 3rd Don Pol in the Lexus. He is up high in
the weights based on form of yesteryear and ran an ok race when down the field
here last year. He’ll give Bryan Cooper a decent spin but others preferred.
4. Wonderful Charm
Another gun for Nicholls to fire – his form
is decent enough and he has been a consistent performer in graded company
without every reaching the very top. He did have a good run on the Mildmay
course last year but you’d be wanting him to beat the horses that beat him on
that day. All his best form seems to be over shorter so others make more
appeal.
5. Ballynagour
Another frequent performer in top class
graded chases and on his day looks like a top top horse though admittedly it
hasn’t been his day for a little while. He’s been running in all the right
races with all the wrong results and his Aintree form is fair but
unspectacular. Could do something at a price but others are more likely.
6. O’Faolain’s
Boy
It was unfortunate O’Faolains Boy got
injured after an exciting novice campaign that saw him win the RSA in 2014. It
has been good to see him back this season and his run from the front
challenging Smad Place in the Gold Cup showed some encouragement for the
future. He is probably still on the comeback trail and I hope he’ll go well
again next year. You’d have wanted him to be a little closer at Cheltenham to
prove staying credentials to consider him today.
7. Gilgamboa
Interesting runner for master cross country
trainer Enda Bolger with fair form behind some classy horses including
Carlingford Lough and most recently a 5th in the Ryanair behind
Vautour. That race would be an unusual prep for the national but shows a fair
degree of pace. He’s also shown decent stamina over three miles and is worth
another look at the price. Shortlisted.
8. On
His Own
2nd in a dramatic Gold Cup
behind Lord Windermere an was well fancied for this race in 2012 and 2013. No
form to get excited about since but will give Patrick Mullins a decent enough
whirl without challenging.
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| Chance to redeem an unlucky fall? |
9. The
Druid’s Nephew
There is a school of thought that The
Druid’s Nephew had this race at his mercy when slithering on landing 5 out last
year. He was travelling well and leading at the time. My view is that Many
Clouds and co were snapping on his heels and likely about to make their bids
that time and there was still a long way to go. He came into that race after a
great win at Cheltenham that showed him to be well handicapped and is 5lbs
higher today. I can’t help but think his chance was last year and he would’ve
been beaten then too. That said, Neil Mulholland has given him a quiet campaign
to aim him at this ad he shaped well in defeat behind The Last Samuri last time
out – that’s enough for him to be shortlisted but others may edge it.
10. Triolo
D’Alene
He shouldn’t really have a chance and
pulled up last year when tailed off, but a Hennessey win in 2013 and a Topham
win do put a doubt in the mind and I’m prepared to write him off. More worthy
than some, but not shortlisted nonetheless.
11. Rocky
Creek
Another bullet for Nicholls and one he is
firing for the third time with increasingly worsening results. He shaped well 2
years ago before fading on the run in back to 5th. Last year came in
17th and after an abject season you’d expect a further slump
wouldn’t be out of character. On the plus side, he should get over the fences
so that’s at least one positive.
12. Sir
Des Champs
Another real old grinder and it’s been
great to see him back this season. On previous form, 2nd behind
Bob’s worth in the 2013 Gold Cup before injury he would surely have been near
the top of the weights for this. He hasn’t shown enough to say he’d be up for
this but could be a wildcard. He was the choice of Ruby Walsh before breaking
his wrist, so that counts for something…
13. Holywell
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| Holywell beating Don Cossack 10 lengths in 2014 |
I am conflicted – Holywell doesn’t look
like a National horse as he’s too small – he reminds me of Clan Royal who went
bravely ahead and clear a decade ago only to be carried out by loose horses
before Bechers. He is the only horse I have bet antepost for the race and
here’s why: Watch his performance at Aintree (albeit the Mildmay course) in the
novices race – He absolutely obliterated a class field including (then RSA
winner) O’Faolain’s Boy, Grand National Favourite Many Clouds and 2016 Gold Cup
winner Don Cossack by 10 lengths. The Cheltenham race he won before that is the
same race he ran a good second in this year behind Un Temps Pour Tout. That was
one of his best performances but his best rating came when upped further in
distance to 3m2f. He should stay, look at his Gold Cup fourth behind Coneygree
for further evidence. We have seen on Friday how Jonjo O’Neill trains horses
for handicaps with the win of Eastlake and there was something eyecatching
about Holywell’s early runs this season that made me think if he ‘miraculously’
returned to form then he could be well in – and sure enough he ran a big race
at Cheltenham. His weight here is unaffected by that run and the form puts him
just 3lbs below Many Clouds where here he has almost a stone in hand. The caveat
here is the ground and the dryer it gets the better it is for him – though good
to soft should be fine. The big field is a plus as he is all grit. In my view
he is either off the boil and pulls up, doesn’t take to the fences or he is
primed to run a blinder and go close. Shortlisted, fancied. (also note: this is
a horse I’d probably follow off a cliff so take all hyperbole with a pinch of
salt)
14. Shutthefrontdoor
This horse was right there at the last in
2015 on AP McCoy’s last National ride before weakening into 5th on
the run in. It’s decent enough form to say he’ll get round but he hasn’t shown
as much this year so others preferred on this occasion.
15. Soll
It feels like Soll has been around forever
and he is 11 but lightly raced with only 20 chase starts under his belt. He
will give you a good spin and I expect him to complete but likely a similar
fate to his 9th last year or worse awaits.
16. Buywise
Exactly the sort of horse that would win
this at 50/1 – has always been fancied in handicaps but never delivered.
Completely unproven at the test but a decent level of form in big races and
just as everyone loses faith he wins the national. To be fair, the horse has
shown his best form this season and if he’s going to do it it will be now. I’m
not putting him up, but if he wins there will be plenty of annoyed deserters
out there.
17. Boston
Bob
An interesting runner for Mullins and a
grade 1 Aintree winner lurking this low in the weights catches the eye. His
Punchestown Gold Cup win two seasons back over Long Run and First Lieutenant
makes him worth a look. He didn’t seem to ever go on from those runs but the
failed Grade 1 superstar is often a good angle in this race and for that reason
he is shortlisted.
18. Aachen
Probably weighted to best, but is better
than a 100/1 shot having beaten Wonderful Charm and Knock House at Cheltenham
in December and he’s a decent jumper. Does however seem to leave his best form
in Winter but wouldn’t put anyone off having a pound on him.
19. Morning
Assembly
This is what a well handicapped horse looks
like and he has a direct form line through Holywell on their Cheltenham run who
I have gushed enough about above. The horse was third in O’Faolain’s boys RSA
before injury took him off for 21 months. He has been nursed back slowly and
made steady improvements that make me think he’s been campaigned with this in
mind. I think he’ll stay, my concern being he was passed by The Young Master on
the run in at Cheltenham and has quite a few lengths to make up on Holywell.
The staying test may set up a better pace for him and he should jump well. I
like Davy Russell but he’ll want to ride him less patiently than his famous
style usually dictates, one thinks he could’ve been closer at Cheltenham if
ridden right. If he does, he could go very well. Shortlisted.
20. Double
Ross
Won’t Stay – Has decent run in the Topham
previous but can’t really be considered.
 |
| Goonyella - Proven stayer and a good jumper |
21. Goonyella
Probably the best name to shout, so let’s
hope he wins for that if nothing else. Win in Midlands National and 2nd
in Scottish National give a lot to like. He was closing on the winner last time
out. Was 9/17 in the Beecher Chase which wasn’t his best form but showed he
liked the fences and probably wanted further. He is a definite national horse
and fairly treated. Shortlisted.
22. Ucello
Conti
Famed for the tactics of Belgian jockey
Jacques Ricou who took him as wide as the barrier would allow last time out and
still managing to come third, he is the only entry for Gold Cup winning trainer
Gordon Elliott and the second Conti in the race(!) so there’s a lot to like.
His two previous runs have been on heavy ground over 3m1f and he has run well
in both. Big unknown in the ground but may well feature. Shortlisted.
23. Unioniste
Off a much better mark than last year when
falling at the 4th. He subsequently got round in the Beecher Chase
so you’d expect a better crack at the fences this year but that jumping will be
a worry and he may lose valuable lengths on the way round. Others preferred.
24. Le
Reve
I thought this was a Paul Nicholl’s horse
but its not… Good jumper with a consistent level of form. Has run well in trips
over 3m without winning. Just misses out on the shortlist because of that.
25. Gallant
Oscar
Will like a big field and will stay. Form isn’t
anything to go crazy about but handicap win at Punchestown last May is decent
enough, following a third behind the Druid’s Nephew at Cheltenham. Not quite
the same form this year but mark still high enough and he’s a lot worse off at
the weights than his Cheltenham foe and therefore will perhaps regrettably just
miss the shortlist.
26. Onenightinvienna
Very unexperienced but Cheltenham second to
Blaklion in December shows he’s fairly good. Could be anything, but as it
stands isn’t so let’s not complicate things any further for the sake of it.
27. The
Last Samuri
 |
| The Last Samuri is the best handicapped horse in the race |
I call this zone from 25-30 the ‘golden
zone’ when looking at National hopefuls who fall in to a great spot in the
handicap and this horse has been a fancy since winning a trial at Doncaster
last month. He’s 12lb well in and should really expect to figure in the finish.
Kim Bailey has had quite the season in big Saturday races and it would fit that
story were he to win here. Because of the hype, I don’t like his price at all,
but he’s won over 3m2f and in a 15 runner field the previous time both on
flat-tracks and it would be hard not to include him on the shortlist.
28. Kruzhlinin
There aren’t many horses I wouldn’t want to
win a national, but Kruzhlinin was one of the 60 Rooney owned horses taken from
Donald McCain’s yard at the beginning of the season and moved to another
trainer, in this case Phillip Hobbs. It would be heart-breaking for the McCain’s
who have such a rich history in this race see him win. That said… He’s a much
better horse for his new yard and may improve on his 10th place here
2 years ago. But probably not by much. Will get round and may hit the frame if
others underperform but not shortlisted.
29. Rule
The World
An odd entry and not one associated with
stamina – Mouse Morris showed he’s a genius target trainer with his Irish
National win this year but this really would be something else.
30. Just
a Par
Good winner of the Sandown Gold Cup last
spring but weakened here in the Beecher chase suggesting the pace may be a bit
too hot. Looks off a decent mark and could run well at a price for Paul Nicholls
without hitting the frame.
31. Katenko
This is another old favourite of mine – he nearly
died of colic a couple of years ago and it was great just to see him back on a racecourse. I’m not really sure how he got into the race
as he hasn’t done anything since coming back but will be good to see the big
fella over the obstacles.
32. Vics
Canvas
2nd to Just a Par in the Sandown
Gold Cup last year when carrying two stone more… Winning form over long
distances and a decent 5th in the Beecher chase… these are the kind
of things I like in a 80/1 outsider, despite two poor runs latest. Shortlisted.
33. Black
Thunder
I’m surprised Paul Nicholl’s isn’t running
the stable girls… Has a good jockey on board who likes the fences and that
alone could get this horse into a place but he’d need a lot to go his way and
completely forget the form of every run this year.
34. Ballcasey
Brought down by Balthazar King last year –
doubtful stayer and was towards the rear at the time. Katy Walsh will probably
give him a decent enough spin.
35. Hadrian’s
Approach
Interesting and has been plotted quietly.
Nicky Henderson has shown another side to his training this season in bringing
his old stars back. He won the Sandown Gold Cup 2 years ago before a long time
off the track. Previous run showed some promise but this is probably too much
too soon.
36. Vieux
Lion Rouge
I quite like this horse and follow him
regularly but he’s highly unlikely to like this trip.
37. Pendra
Big talking horse who finally delivered at
Ascot in October; form tends to dip in spring and is probably out of his depth
anyway.
 |
| Can Saint Are go one better this year? |
38. Saint
Are
A lot to like. Paddy Brennan has been
having a much better time since falling in the Gold Cup picking up the Bowl with
Cue Card and Melling Chase with God’s Own. This is a great opportunity to go
well in the National on last year’s second. He is off a lovely weight, 1lb
lower than last year and has everything to like. Seems absolutely prepped for
this allowing him to find his way through winter, giving him a run into 7th
in the Beecher chase before a decent win at Doncaster showing him in much
better form than he was last year. His prep was a couple of weeks later this
year but recovery shouldn’t be too much of an issue and he’s fancied to be
thereabouts again. Shortlisted.
39. Home
Farm
I like a hurdles prep to protect a chase handicap
mark and Home Farm has had just that; I just don’t think the pure form is good
enough.
40. The
Romford Pele
Ray Parlour will be pleased he’s made it into
the national and bottom weight is never a bad place to be… Is a decent enough
sort and progressed well since 2014 but I would hope others have more quality.
And then there were 12!:
Shortlist: Many
Clouds, Silviniaco Conti, Gilgamboa, The Druid’s Nephew, Holywell, Boston Bob,
Morning Assembly, Goonyella, Ucello Conti, The Last Samuri, Vics Canvas, Saint
Are
5:15 The Grand
National, 4m2 ½f
Many Clouds and Saint Are hold obvious claims as the
1-2 from 2015. Course form is everything here and the ability to jump round and
stay is a big plus for both of them. Many Clouds has done nothing this season
to suggest he won’t run as big a race, whereas Saint Are has had a quieter
campaign and sneaks in at the bottom of the handicap. There is a 2lb swing and
there were 2 lengths between them last time so the maths would suggest a dead
heat… but it doesn’t always work like that!
Last year’s winner will be challenged for favouritism by one
of the best handicapped horses in the race The Last Samuri who beat The
Druid’s Nephew last time out when in receipt of 6lbs. There is only
4lbs between them today which leaves The Druid’s Nephew with still 8lbs to find
on his 10 length defeat, which is all largely academic if The Last Samuri doesn’t
take to the fences. I’d have a bigger question mark over whether The Druid’s
Nephew would’ve stayed last year if he didn’t have the unfortunate fall – which
may make the whole form line redundant!
I am clearly in love with Holywell almost as much as Many
Clouds – seriously, here is the youtube link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQdjp4NWTsQ
to his destruction of Don Cossack (and Many Clouds) here two years ago. If he gets
his ground I think he will relish this – rain would be a concern if it turns soft. I
think he is more suited to the test than Silviniaco Conti – I’d love Conti to
prove me wrong but I just don’t think he will get home – if he does then he
wins, so if he’s still travelling three out then an in-running bet may be a
good idea! If I like Holywell then I also have to like Morning Assembly who
shaped well behind him at Aintree and I think has been prepped well for this
and will be a strong stayer – speed may be his problem and Davy Russel may have
to give him a more prominent ride than he’d be used to, but he’s got a great
chance if taking to the test better than Holywell.
Then there’s the Irish... who haven’t had a winner since
Silver Birch in 2007. Goonyella looks the sort after two
big national runs at Uttoxeter and Ayr but will need a career best which he
will get if it rains. Ucello Conti may have been given too
much of the benefit of the doubt after Jacques Ricou’s obscure ride and
therefore looks underpriced. Mullins hasn’t won the national since Hedgehunter
and there’s something under the radar about Boston Bob that I like
but it is a pure hunch. Gilgamboa is an attractive price but
has a lot to find on staying form.
80/1 is a great
price for any horse and that horse might as well be Vics Canvas if that’s
your kind of thing.
Rain is a negative for Holywell but a positive for the Irish
and Many Clouds.
Many Clouds is
probably too short at 8/1 but the proven record is a plus. I will back him anyway as he's pretty much an old friend by now and will include him in multiples, but otherwise:
Shrew’s 5 Against the
Field (in no particular order): Holywell 18/1, Morning Assembly 22/1, Saint Are
16/1, Goonyella 22/1 and The Last Samuri 11/1
One at a big price
for those who like that: Vics Canvas 80/1
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