The Whislting Shrew - 2000 Guineas Preview

For me the first classic of the flat season is where it all begins and we could be in for a treat as red hot favourite Air Force Blue leads the field for the 2000 Guineas. If successful he will follow in the footsteps of Gleneagles, Camelot, Henrythenavigator, George Washington and Rock of Gibraltar to be Aiden O'Brien's 8th winner of the race. The only doubt may come through his sire War Front who's colts often look vulnerable on softer ground and don't tend to train on as well at three years old... but if he's as good as we think then maybe he won't need to.

Godolphin field 3 including the only horse to have beaten Air Force Blue as a 2 year old in Buratino, who has shaped more like a sprinter thus far, you expect he will be ridden to come with a late run but stamina may not out the trip. Herald The Dawn is a half brother to previous winner Dawn Approach but looks easily held on form here. Ribchester has some nice form in the book having beaten Log Out Island last year and his price is reflective of his run this season when hanging badly and being disqualified back to 5th. He may be a decent one at a price if we forgive that run.

Proven at the trip however are Stormy Atlantic and Peter Chapel-Hyam's Marcel winners of the Craven Stakes and last seasons Racing Post Trophy respectively. Stormy Atlantic's win over early Derby fancy Foundation looked easy and he may will improve again, though one suspects the recent nature of his victory has shortened the price somewhat. Marcel on the other hand went off a criminal 33/1 when beating the same horse Foundation by half a length further. He stayed on well that day and one would expect he will get further than a mile as his ideal trip, but any softness in the ground will be a plus.

Good words have been said about both Massat and Galelio Gold from their connections. Massat, the mount of Paul Hannagan, has been beaten by Air Force Blue before and will have a lot to do to reverse the form - he may be one for the notebook and more experience would've been ideal here. Galelio Gold could well improve but would significantly need to.

The rest seem outclassed.

Shrew's Shrewdie

12/1 Marcel e/w

1-2-3-4

Air Force Blue - Marcel - Massaat - Buratino

2000 Guineas Runner-By-Runner Guide

Air Force Blue commands the field in the Dewhurst

1. Air Force Blue
Obvious choice. Winner of two key trials in the National Stakes and Dewhurst and quickened impressively both times. Best trainer in the world. Best jockey in the world. Ticks every box bar the price but will be hard to beat. The stats on his sire War Front may be the only negative and as we haven't seen him yet this season it is hard to be certain how good he is or can be, but even a repeat of last years form would be good enough to land most Guineas. Highest rated 2 year old since Frankel - is he a superstar?

2. Air Vice Marshall
Likely pacemaker for stablemate, but hasn't been seen for a long time. If ridden to place then he might well do so. A speculative bet at 40/1 if you like that kind of thing.

3. Buratino

Buratino impressed beating Air Force Blue in the Coventry

The only horse to beat Air Force Blue in another race that throws up winners for this in the Coventry at Royal Ascot. Air Force Blue reversed the form in the Phoenix Stakes and you have to expect at full fitness has him held. Suspected he'll be better over shorter but could well place.

4. First Selection
Will probably go from the front and assure a good pace but no form in the book to suggest he can figure at the business end.

5. Galileo Gold
Good vibes and won a good hattrick of races as a 2 year old showing improvement in each and beating Ibn Malik, but will need to have come on further to challenge. Vibes from Frankie Dettori is that he has but he will have to find a lot and need one or two others to flop.

6. Herald The Dawn
Quite a way behind Galileo Gold in latest run. Ran better behind Air Force Blue in the National Stakes, but still quite a bit to find on principles.

7. Kentuckyconnection
This will be a nice day out for his (Kentucky)connections, I hope they enjoy it.

Racing Post Trophy winner Marcel will appreciate the bad weather

and could be here under the radar

8. Marcel
Showed nothing impressive in his maiden before winning well next and becoming a surprise winner of the Racing Post Trophy - The late season form should always be taken with a pinch of salt but on pure ratings he seems the one most likely to follow Air Force Blue home. Sire was 4th in the French Guineas and a subsequent group 1 winner over a mile and that's enough for me. Has the (other) best jockey in the world on board. He may be an autumn horse...but we don't know that, 12/1 seems big enough to take the risk.

9. Massaat
Held on Dewhurst form by Air Force Blue but took a big step up from previous maiden win. Difficult to tell how good he might be, but represents a decent each way bet.

10. Ribchester
Up against it, but forgiving his last run may bounce back but doubtful it will be enough.

11. Stormy Atlantic

Newmarket was possibly wetter than the Stormy Atlantic on

trials day - he may well run well again.

Winners of the Craven Stakes don't have a great record in following up in the Guineas and even if the other horses don't improve from last year he may still only just be on par. The run however does prove he's healthy and well and if drifting to an each way price may become interesting.

12. Zhui Feng
No reason he'll hit the frame other than perhaps being a little fitter after a run out.

13. Zonderland
No reason he'll figure.