Day 1 of the Aintree meeting has grown into a spectacular days
racing to rival the Cheltenham Festival 3 weeks before. This years renewals
have an added spice, and to be specific an Irish spice with Willie Mullins
sending legions of his superstars over on the ferry to Liverpool in a bid to
steal the English Trainer’s Title from Paul Nicholls. This adds a great subtext
to three days of top quality racing which climaxes in the Grand National on
Saturday with the two trainers running over a quarter of the field between them
in a bid to land the prize money that would surely seal it if either are
successful.
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3 days of top class jumps racing accumulating in the
Grand National over the 30 most famous fences in the world
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Aintree poses a difficult puzzle, with the added element of
horses fitness to take into consideration – is this an afterthought or a long
held plan? Will horses run to their best form or even improve? Because of this,
how well Mullins’ superstars will run an unknown as this is the first time that
he has attempted something this audacious. But one thing for sure is that we
will not be short on star quality over the birch brush and spruce of the
Aintree obstacles culminating in the greatest steeplechase in the world!
Shrew’s Shrewdies
1:40 - Arzal 11/2
2:15 – Ivanovich Gorbatov 11/10, unless the rains come and then Footpad
11/2
2:50 - Cue Card Evs (nb)
3:25 - Annie Power 4/7 or Annie Power, Nichols Canyon
(forecast) or The New One 9/1 E/w
4:05 - Pacha Du Polder 7/2 (nap)
4:40- Pearls Legend 10/1 e/w
5:15 – La Bague Au Roi 7/4
Race-By-Race Guide
1:40 Novice Chase 2m4f
The novice chases were possibly the most enjoyable and competitive
races at Cheltenham with eight quality runners it should be no less
entertaining. Of the eight, both L’Ami Serge and Sizing John ran well in
defeat behind Black Hercules and Douvan respectively. The switch to a sharper
left handed track will benefit L’Ami Serge who showed his tendency to jump left
at Cheltenham That run was a career best and he could improve again and go
close. Sizing John lost nothing in defeat in the Arkle and is a consistent sort
– He’s a good chaser and you’d expect him to be in the frame if not winning.
Garde La Victoire fell at the tricky fence four out in the JLT
and it’s difficult to guess where he would’ve finished when looking like he was
travelling well. He was a beaten 5/2f over hurdles here in 2014 and I think his
form is a little way behind the market principles. He is still unproven at this
distance but you’d expect he’d take it fine on his hurdles form. Wouldn’t
surprise me if he won but not worth a bet at the price.
Rock the World flew into
favouritism and looked well handicapped for the Grand Annual and was
close up in third in this race, this is a higher class affair and he has a bit
to find on several of the principles.
Bouveruil also ran well in second at Cheltenham over the
distance – hard to see that that is Grade 1 form. Aso has a lot to find on
Sizing John and is hard to fancy.
This is Volnay De Thaix’s third chase start
and you’d have to think this is too big an ask.
Arzal is the only one of these to
not have lined up at Cheltenham and the fact he comes into this fresh is to me
a big plus. He has run to a consistent level behind good horses this season and
has won twice at Newbury and Ludlow. His Kempton and Doncaster runs back up
that he is strong on a flat course. The unknown is the distance and he will
need to prove staying credentials to win but at the prices is tentatively the
selection ahead of Sizing John.
2:15 Juvenile Hurdle, 2m2f
This is a really interesting race with the top three from
the Triumph hurdle all lining up to take on Fred Winter winner Diego
Du Charmil and second Romain
De Senam – You’d expect the latter to fair better off of level weights
but one would also have to expect that the better form is all from the Triumph.
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The front three in the Triumph, Ivanovich Gorbatov,
Apple's Jade and Footpad go head-to-head again
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Ivanovich Gorbatov will
likely go off favourite as the winner of that race and he did quicken
impressively in the manner of a good horse for the future. I’d expect him to
hold form with Apple’s Jade if he is all sound having quickened impressively after
the last. However, he has reportedly not been the easiest horse to train so at
this young age may be difficult to part with money on. Any rain on the day
would be a big negative.
Ruby Walsh again rides Footpad, for whom a combination of
exaggerated waiting tactics and dry ground meant he could only manage third at
Cheltenham. I’d expect on good to soft and given a more knowledgeable ride then
he could be a lot closer today.
Sceau Royal was bitterly disappointing at Cheltenham and just
never seemed to be travelling – probably left all his best form in the winter?
Khezerabad is a horse
I’d really like to know more about as this is only his second run. Probably
safe to assume he doesn’t have enough experience and others therefore
preferred.
2:50 Bowl Chase, 3m2f
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Can Cue Card put a Gold Cup fall swiftly behind him to
win the Bowl?
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The Gold Cup 2nd and 3rd line up to
take on the unlucky Cue Card, who would’ve gone close to Don Cossack if it wasn’t
for the fall 3 out. It’s hard to know what effect that fall has had on Cue Card
– He got up and galloped away fine so I’d give him the benefit of the doubt to
retain form with Djakadam. His Aintree form has always been good although 2nd
¾ times he has been beaten by very good horses, including top form Sprinter
Sacre and the Cue Card of this season should be up to this. However, he has
been on the go since the Charlie Hall in October and his main rival Djakadam
comes into this presumably fresher. I’d expect a close race between the two of them and wouldn't want to call it definitely, but Cue Card by a whisker.
The riding tactics of Don Poli weren’t the best in the
Gold Cup but he stayed on well enough. He still has a fair bit to find on Cue
Card and Djakadam but it’s not too hard to see him improving again for having
Cooper on board with more prominent riding tactics – He would need the two
principles to underperform but that’s not beyond possibility.
On form Saphir De Rheu wouldn’t be too far
behind him, but it’s difficult to know what they are doing with this horse
nowadays having swapping back and forth from hurdling and chasing – you’d have
to think that he hasn’t been aimed with this in mind and so wouldn’t be as
ready for the challenge. This is a race that Paul Nicholl’s has farmed with
Silviniaco Conti in recent years but he goes for the national this time and
you’d have to think Saphir’s entry is there to pick up minor prize money in the
trainers battle.
Dynaste shouldn’t go close but it’s good to see him line up
anyway.
The others should be outclassed by the principles, but if
one does hit the frame I’d say Taquin Du Seuil can come on from his
sixth in the Ryanair with Houblon Des Obeaux likely to prefer
damper ground.
3:25 Aintree Hurdle, 2m4f
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Willie Mullins will be hoping his mare repeats her Champion
Hurdle performance to edge him closer to the trainers title
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Super mare Annie Power had the measure of these
at Cheltenham and will most likely run home the winner again receiving 7lb from
her competition. She has proven she can stay this distance with no problem in
the past and looks difficult to oppose. The tactics were run to suit when going
from the front and you can’t imagine that stablemate Nichols Canyon will be
ridden to oppose her lead despite that possibly hindering his chances of
winning. It was close home between him and My Tent Or Yours at Cheltenham but
his previous course and distance form means he should be the one for the
forecast. My Tent didn’t settle well in that race (and never does) and it’s
hard to see him improving for a first time over 20f.
However, The New One should benefit from a
step up to the distance and is 2/3 at Aintree. He will be more suited to this
test than Cheltenham and is the danger to the Mullins duo… but nothing they’d
be losing sleep over.
Camping Ground ran poorly at Cheltenham but the step up in
distance will be to his benefit and he may well upset the odds by placing but
it’s hard to see him touching Annie – if he is going to return to his January
form then this is probably the arena to do so but probably best watched. Court
Minstrel would also need a couple of others to underperform, but in a 6
runner race may upset some of the would-be placed horses.
4:05 Foxhunter’s Chase, 2m5f
The Foxhunters gives the first festival preview of the
National fences jumping Bechers Brook, Valentines and the Chair once on the way
around.
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Last year's 1-2 go head to head again - Can Pacha Du Polder
reverse the form?
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I liked Pacha Du Polder’s run under Victoria
Pendleton at Cheltenham. Now with Will Biddick in the saddle you’d expect him
to improve for that. He has about 4 lengths to find on On The Fringe on
Cheltenham form who will be ridden by Jamie Codd with Nina Carberry suspended. 3
½ lengths split the pair with On The Fringe winning the 2015 renewal but his
Cheltenham run this year was probably about a stone below where he was last
year and this is a much bigger ask to follow up again. A bit depends on how
fresh he was at Cheltenham but at the price I’d rather side with Pacha.
The only horse to really come near these two on form is Current
Event, who was 2 ¼ lengths down in 4th at Cheltenham. His
form over these fences is reasonable but the unseat in this last year is
unfortunate.
Mendip Express ran a poor
race at Cheltenham and although he has good form on this course after his
second in December hasn’t shown much in his last two runs but could bounce back
to form.
4:40 Red Rum Handicap Chase 2m
Aintree’s equivalent of the Grand Annual,
runners in the Cheltenham closer often go well again here and winner Solar Impulse looks likely to be
favourite off 2nd top weight. He was racing off of 12lbs lower for
that victory and this looks a big ask for an albeit progressive 6 year old. His
last race over course and distance saw him finish 6/6 which isn’t exactly great…
2nd to him at Cheltenham was Dandridge who gets off a little
lighter with the handicapper and his Doncaster win hints that he will probably
be better suited by this track. He has an improving profile and there’s a lot
to like.
Also out of
that race was Pearls Legend in 5th – the handicapper
seems to have him about right now and he doesn’t seem to be as progressive as
the other two, but is interesting off of this mark – he was third in this last
year. He is preferred to Workbench who has decent enough form
tying in with both Pearls Legend and Solar Impulse
Fayette
County has just the form stats you want
to see in a JP McManus handicap runner F4-P2, he is lightly raced and may well
prove to be ‘well aimed’ at this race at the bottom of the handicap.
Minella
Present seems fairly difficult to get
right but on his day is more than capable of winning this – he hasn’t run since
November and may well have been kept quiet for this. Should go close.
5:15 Mares Bumper
The mares program is a good addition to the calendar insofar
as it provides national hunt broodmares for the future. From a racing
perspective I haven’t a clue. You’d expect Augusta Kate to go well despite a
tough race at Cheltenham but the money seems to be for La Bague Au Roi who is significantly
unexposed on three wins. A bit to find but looks a likely sort…
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