The Whislting Shrew - Royal Ascot Day 5 Preview

Any excuse to show the champ - as his progeny go head-to-head

in the Chesham

The final day of the Ascot extravaganza highlights the Diamond Jubilee Stakes which is a truly international affair this year with USA's Undrafted looking to defend his title. After Queen Kindly's good run yesterday all eyes will be on Frankel's other progeny Cunco and Frankuus who oth line up in the Chesham Stakes. The Wokingham is one of m favourite handicaps and is as impossible to call as ever before the marathon Queen Alexandra concludes the card.

Shrew's Shrewdies

2:30 - The Frankel Forecast! - Cunco and Frankuus RF 33/1
3:05 - Malificent Queen 8/1 e/w
3:40 - Exosphere 5/2 or Simple Verse 13/2
4:20 -  The Tin Man 7/2
5:00 - No idea - Springloaded 10/1, Shared Equity 16/1 and Flash Fire 20/1 all e/w
5:35 - Oriental Fox 4/1

Race-by-race Guide

2:30 Chesham Stakes, Listed, 7f

Cunco impressed on debut but can

he beat O'Brien's Churchill...

Aiden O'Brien (as usual) is having a good week and has another good favourite here in the form of Churchill who looks like a step up to 7f is likely to suit. Assessing maiden form is an unenviable job but on the figures awarded on first run he is not the top rated in the field (though improvement is very much expected)

...or could half-brother Frankuus get it his way?

Instead it could be a tale of two brothers as two of Frankel's sons, both winners first time out go head to head. Cunco was the first Frankel colt to hit a racecourse and though he ran green he looked a little like his famous sire, complete with famous white blaze across his face, when going easily past the leader to win and set the imagination racing about what to expect from Frankel's first crop. What followed was 4/5 maiden wins including today's challenger Frankuus who ran to a similar level when winning at Haydock. It is probably heart ruling head but I hope the race is between the two of them.

Of the others Aiming for Rio was a recent Godolphin purchase and has a bit more experience than most of these without being exposed and could be the most likely to cause an upset.

3:05 Wolferton, Listed Handicap, 1m2f

Malificent Queen hasn't lost a race since debut and has progressed well with each run. In many was it would make sense to just keep backing her until she loses although she may fall victim to one more tactically campaigned. It certainly seems more attractive than favourite Best of Times underwhelming 9th last time out though I'm sure that that did no harm to his handicap mark and the 2nd behind Storm the Stars before that isn't bad form.

Godolphin are having a good week and there other 2 runners are worth a look. Adam Kirby is also having a good week and is in the right sort of form to get the career best needed by Second Wave. Oceanographer looks exposed at this trip.

Sir Isaac Newton's last run 2 lengths behind Portage has worked out fairly well with Portage a good winner this week, but I'm always put off by O'Brien in handicaps. There's a lot to like about Pacify and a first time visor could eke further improvement.

But what about Carlo? Well, What About Carlo, sneaks in at the bottom of the weights which is always a nice place to be, but I'm not sure he has the class?

Fire Fighting looks a silly price considering he was 3rd in this last year. He seems to run every other day and has been out of sorts since and a bounce-back isn't unquestionable.

3:40 Hardwicke Stakes, Group 2, 1m4f

Exosphere looked really good when winning the Jockey Club Stakes in April - the race is a bit difficult to assess with Jack Hobbs being pulled up on the day and his price is probably an overreaction to the win. It was however probably the best form on offer. The one thing that may stop him winning is (again) the less than convenient draw from stall 1.

Frankel again? No - this time Exosphere - will he hold form

with St. Leger winner Simple Verse?

The draw is much more in favour of Leger winner (or was she or wasn't she?) Simple Verse who was second to Exosphere on seasonal debut, but ran a fair way below her best. I expect she'll come on for that run and CD form from last seasons Champions Fillies Stakes is a big plus (as well as a handy 5lb pull).  Beautiful Romance was third to Simple Verse at the end of last season and hasn't yet shown the progression to go beyond that.

Eagle Top was a really good second in the King George here and what Postponed has gone on to do since suggests that he has to be taken seriously but he's run poorly enough since to think he may have peaked on that run. The main contender then may be Dartmouth who has a lot to find on official ratings with the favourite but has been consistently progressive profile including a good win in the Ormonde Stakes over Wicklow Brave last time out. Surely they have to let the Queen win something!

Almodovar is one from leftfield having progressed through handicap ranks - I have no reason to think he's a class 1 contender, but who knows?

Highland Reel's best form would see him go close but his last two runs seem to have shown a decline in progress and he simply doesn't win enough. That said, I wouldn't rule him out.

edit: Eagle Top is now a non-runner

4:20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes, Group 1, 6f

A compact but interesting field including last year's winner Undrafted  who would've wanted better ground for a follow up attempt for Wesley Ward. The international flavour to the race is continued by Hong Kong challenger Gold Fun whose best form thus far seems to come in the winter so probably not ideal.

Will today be the day that patience in The Tin Man pays off?

Twighlight Son would've been the sprint star of last season and is only not favourite because of a poor display on debut at York - I'm not sure what the excuses were that day but you can forgive a horse a bad run - perhaps it was the ground? That race was won by Magical Memory  who is 4 out of 4 when steered by Dettori and could improve further for the run.

But there is something insanely likeable about The Tin Man who has just chugged along in his own time slowly progressing race upon race. He was however 2 lengths down to Twilight Son on Champions Day but a 2 length win over watchable on seasonal reappearance suggests he is about ready to take a prize of this calibre... he is tentatively the selection.

 

5:00 Wokingham Stakes, Handicap, 6f

An artists impression of the Wokingham which will

be as ridiculous as always

Way too many variables! - Be aware of those who are there more for the owners to have a day out... other than that looking for a seasoned campaigner in 6f handicaps.

5:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes, Listed, 2m5f

Last year's winner Oriental Fox has a really good chance of following up, with Clondaw Warrior the obvious main danger. Amour De Nuit is the progressive danger for them both to look out for.

The Whistling Shrew - Royal Ascot Day 4 Preview

Pure Class - Order of St George comes late to win the Gold Cup

Whilst everyone was watching a nail-biting finish to Englands victory over Wales, a horse named for the occasion really stepped up and delivered as Order of St George proved his stamina (and some) in landing the Ascot Gold Cup. It was a messy and attritional race where he seemed to have a luckless run especially coming down the back straight, but really should his class when picking up on a run around the outside to win well over his rivals. I think he has the speed to win in anything 1m4f+ and the rumour he may go for the King George here in July is mouthwatering.

At times Royal Ascot feels like it goes on for one day too many, but that's not the case with todays card. The excellent addition on the Commonwealth Cup last year means there is a great back to back of Group 1s as the centrepiece. Irish 1000 Guineas winner Jet Setting, who vanquished Minding that day will be the star name in the Coronation Stakes but there is a great supporting cast in the Albany and Edward VII before the card concludes with the Duke of Edinburgh stakes and the Queen's Vase staying race for 3 year olds.

Shrew's Shrewdies

2:30 Cuff 9/4 or Queen Kindly 7/1 e/w

3:05 Carntop 9/2

3:40 Quiet Reflection 2/1 or Chiekljack 8/1 e/w

4:20 Nathra 13/2

5:00 Missed Call 16/1 e/w

5:35 Ebediyin 7/2

Race By Race Guide

2:30 Albany Stakes, Group 3, 6f

Another 2 year old sprint, hooray... The market is lead by Aiden O'Brien's Cuff and you can see why given that she is a good 10lbs ahead of her rivals on RPRs - the form of her last win was mildly upheld by the second that day Yulong Baobei putting up a fair run when 7th of 21 in the Windsor Castle here on Tuesday. She is probably the one to be with, albeit with a really unusual pedigree that would make her seem like an Oaks contender more than a sprinter but hey-ho.

That pedigree makes it worth looking for an each way back up. O'Brien's second string Brave Anna shaped like there was more to come when winning a maiden last time out. Grizzel is an interesting runner for Richard Hannon having won both races so far. Wesley Ward runs Create a Dream who may go well but may fall into the same ground pitfalls of most (Lady Aurelia very much excluded) of his other runners this week.

Kilmah has a straight form line with Cuff through beating Seafront last time out; on literal terms that would put her 2lbs behind Cuff with more possible improvement to come from that debut as she was slow away on that day. Romantic View has a good run at Ascot under her belt before winning a maiden well last time with probably a better level of form than Kilmah.

I would love Queen Kindly to get the job done here as a daughter of the insurmountable Frankel. She won an easy enough maiden by 5 lengths and it seems so far that you can't go wrong with her pedigree.

Jim Bolger's Oh Grace has a bit more experience or is more highly exposed than most of these depending how you look at it but might be a good price. The same goes for Sea of Snow who started off nicely before being beaten by Legendary Lunch last time out - the form of which now doesn't seem top notch.

3:05 King Edward VII Stakes, Group 2,  1m4f

Can favourite Beacon Rock overcome an inside draw?

This is a really interesting race for horses not quite good enough for the derby and is headed on ratings by Beacon Rock who got a first win of the season under his belt at the Curragh last month. The draw has stuck him on the inside sandwiched between 2nd and 3rd top rated Humphrey Boggart and Carntop. The draw bias is most prominent at Ascot over this distance and really favours horses coming from outside as otherwise you have to accelerate into a prominent position before slowing down into the sharp turn at Swinley Bottom and its near impossible to get the horses balance right after that... or, if you let someone else go ahead its hard to pass. Therefore, perhaps at my peril, I'm going to ignore the favourite and Humphrey Boggart. Carntop though may have a better run from stall 3.

Taking it to the other extreme the surprisingly lucrative car park draw goes to Choreographer, who is one of two Sea The Stars colts and is preferred to half brother Across the Stars who ran a poor 10th in the derby. Choreographer had an absolutely luckless run in the Dante when squeezed out twice when trying to make a move but still closing at the line albeit back in 7th. He was also held up that day, which probably won't suit, but a return to his maiden winning tactics of just letting him run under a keen hold will suit this track better. Giving him the benefit of the doubt and hopefully a trouble free passage he'll hopefully go better here.

Linguistic poses an interesting threat and seems to settle well behind leaders. That prominent racing style will suit this race - first time blinkers should also help.

3:40 Commonwealth Cup, Group 1, 6f

Quiet Reflection could be the star in the second Commonwealth

Cup

There is less strength in depth than there was when Muharar beat a top field in this last year but the favourite Quiet Reflection sets a good standard with her 3 1/2 length win over Donjuan Triumphant last time out. There is an argument that the softer ground may see a reverse in those placings but it would have to be a significant reversal.

Log Out Island won a bizarre race at Newbury last time out when 10 lengths clear 2 furlongs out with his opponents finally clocking on and closing at the line. He may repeat it and make us all look fools but until then it's an anomaly.

French raider Cheikeljack is really interesting having beaten Jersey Stakes winner Ribchester last time out. Is that good enough form to win a group 1? Is this race a good group 1? 8/1 is a fair price to find out.

4:20 Coronation Cup, Group 1 (3yo fillies), 1m

Jet Setting proved her class on soft ground when beating

Minding in the Irish Guineas

The weather has unfortunately kept away Ballydoyle and Minding is absent due to her Oaks exploits. However, her Irish Guineas vanquisher Jet Setting sets a really good standard here. She is the best horse in this race and what has been achieved to date is enough to win, especially on this soft ground (her flops have come on good ground or better). She was purchased for 1.3 million earlier in the week and her new owners will be hoping she can get the job done.

However, she's clocked up a fair bit of mileage already this season and it's worth looking at the rest of the field, the most interesting of which are Nemoralia and Qemah. Nemoralia looks the one who is laid out for this race having not competed in a Guineas. There is an odd bit of form in Doncaster last year where she won with Jet Setting back in 8th (on good ground), connections would take the same margin again today. Qemah was a good third in the French Guineas between Nathra and Besharah the latter of whom has been more exposed in subsequent runs. Excluding the run in the Newmarket Guineas Nathra has a really nice profile for this.

Alice Springs is a good filly on her day and its not uncommon for O'Brien's fillies (unlike the colts) to go in and out of form with no real rhyme or reason. Could be a threat if turning up.

5:00 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, Handicap, 1m4f

No strong opinion on this race - I like Elite Army but he may be up against it off top weight. It will be interesting to see how Ivan Grozny goes in a bid for an unusual Aintree/ Ascot double. I'd go for Missed Call if I had to pick one.

5:35 Queen's Vase, Listed (3yo), 2m

There are a lot of unknowns in this race as always and as you'd expect from a 3yo stayers race at this stage in the season. Favourite Ebediyin has exceptional breeding in line with previous Gold Cup winners and I wouldn't put anyone off of him.

Aiden O'Brien runs three the best of which is Landofhopeandglory who is second highest rated on what's been done so far, just behind Ormito who has shaped like he will like this distance but is vulnerable to improvers behind him.

Harbour Law is useful and seems to get better the further he goes.

The Whistling Shrew - Royal Ascot Day 3 Preview

Still thee centrepiece of the Royal Meeting - Can O'Brien

lift another Ascot Gold Cup?

Day 3 hosts the meeting centrepiece The Ascot Gold Cup over 2m4f for which last years emphatic Irish Leger winner Order of St George will be a favourite for Aiden O'Brien. He looked unbeatable that day and will be tough to pass again if the master trainer has brought him along to step up to this trip. Elsewhere, Oaks second Architecture looks to prove herself a top quality filly in the Ribblesdale, there are competitive fields for the Tercentenary and Norfolk stakes and two more handicap cavalry charges in the Britanna and King George V. Not that anyone will be watching until the handicaps as it's England vs Wales!

Shrew's Shrewdies

2:30 - Global Applause 9/4
3:05 - Hawkbill 9/2
3:40 - Even Song 3/1 or The Black Princess 11/1 e/w 
4:20 -I want Order of St. George evs or Pallasator 11/1 e/w
5:00 -  Manson 18/1 e/w or Out and About 9/1
5:35 -   Guy Fawkes 8/1 or Point of View 14/1 e/w

Race-by-Race Guide  

2:30 Norfolk Stakes, Group 2, 5f

There's nothing I hate more than a 2 year old sprint. On what's been achieved so far Ed Dunlops  Global Applause and O'Brien's Peace Envoy seem to be ahead on ratings with Legendary Lunch just behind. It would seem to be between these three with the wild card being American raider Red Lodge who may be blunted by the speed. 

Global Applause clearly has a lot of raw speed but maybe will be stopped on the ground? I'd tentatively go with Peace Envoy on the basis that he has won on soft already.

Godolphin's Silver Line seems well supported in the market but there is no evidence to back that up...yet...

3:05  Tercentenary Stakes, Group 3, 1m2f

Another competitive race wit not much between Blue De Vega, Hawkbill and Steel of Madrid with Long Island Sound, Abdon and Prize Money just behind

In the past the race has rewarded a horse that is match fit with two or more seasonal runs under their belt. That will suit Steel of Madrid and Blue De Vega. Blue De Vega probably has the better form based on a 3rd in the Irish Guineas, whereas Steel of Madrid is proven at the trip after a 1m2f win last time out.

Hawkbill beat Abdon last time out so I'm not sure why Abdon is favourite? That win for Hawkbill was over the right distance in the right ground, whereas Blue De Vega looked at his best on drier ground at the end of last season but his breeding would suggest he'd enjoy a step up in distance.

Long Island Sound is three from three this year, but there are still a lot of unknowns about him.

3:40  Ribblesdale, Group 2 (3yo fillies), 1m4f
Architecture was left in front a long way out in the Oaks whilst Minding struggled through the pack to eventually pick her off. That Oaks form is by far and away the best on offer here alongside her previous defeat to Seventh Heaven, but you have to wonder whether 13 days is enough recovery time in a race notorious for massive improvements.

The Black Princess, Shall We, We Are Ninety and Chicardo all make appeal but the best of the bunch may be Even Song who was left out of the Oaks to facilitate Minding and saved specifically for this; you'd expect her to be strongly in the mix to give the favourite a race.

4:20 Ascot Gold Cup, Group 1, 2m4f

Order of St George blitzes his rivals in the Irish Leger

The way in which Order of St George won last years Irish Leger would've had me backing him to take on Golden Horn in the Arc had he gone there, he was that good and it's no surprise he is a short favourite here. However, he didn't and Aiden O'Brien has taken him down the same route as his legendary superstar and 4 time Gold Cup hero Yeats. He proved last year with Kingfisher's close 2nd that he knows how to get a top staying performance out of horses and if he's worked his magic to squeeze another 6f out of Order of St George he could be an impressive winner.

To do so he will need to beat more proven stayers including Max Dynamite - Willie Mullins' runner was deemed an unlucky third in the Melbourne Cup and should see the distance out. But he was beaten earlier this season by Pallasator who is an absolute lunatic, but seems to be behaving better with age - he could blow his chance before the start or he could be slightly below the form required to win in group 1 company.

Pallasator seeing off Flying Officer -

Can he keep his head at Group 1 level?

Mizzou  has already locked heads this year with Flying Officer and come out the better of the two, Clever Cookie separated the pair in the Sagaro  and followed up nicely with a win just ahead of Curbyourenthusiasm over 1m6f in May with both staying on really well to the line. Curbyourenthusiasm is much the younger horse so could have more improvement in the tank
however Flying Officers course win in the stayers race on champions day last year was very good and I think he'll go well. Mizzou ran here last year in a disappointing 7th, but the stamina test is not beyond him.

5:00 Britannia Stakes, Handicap, 1m

It might be easier next year to have just one 1m handicap with 150 runners? just an idea...

No strong opinion here - Let's go with Manson

Ryan Moore has left his Coolmore rides to ride Out and About for William Haggas which is probably foolish to ignore.

5:40 King George V Stakes, Handicap, 1m4f

The Queen hasn't had a winner in a while... so how about Guy Fawkes

The Whistling Shrew - Royal Ascot Day 2 Preview

Galileo Gold was king of the Guineas winners under a

smart ride from Frankie Dettori

What an awful start for the Shrew... Galileo Gold proved doubters wrong and Frankie Dettori made full use of a good draw to send him to the front early enough to see out another group 1 win in the St James Palace. He was always doing enough to see off the fast finishing The Gurkha who got bunched in from a tight draw and had too much to do despite catching

In the opening race Tepin proved she is a really smart filly seeing off Belardo and co. to become the first American horse to win the Queen Anne. Carvaggio justified strong support to land the Coventry and Profitable profited from Mecca's Angel's flop in the Kings Stand. There was some respite for Shrewdies as Jennies Jewel scored another big win for the fillies in the Ascot Stakes before the right colours came home in front in the last (but unfortunately the wrong horse).

Day two has at it's centrepiece the Prince of Wales Stakes which this year has a slightly disappointing turn out but features hot international raider A Shin Hikari who will bid to give the often luckless Japanese a big international winner. He will have to beat last year's first and second The Grey Gatsby and Western Hymn as well as consistent Irish filly Found to do so. The remainder of the card boasts a host of competitive races including the big handicap of the day, the Royal Hunt Cup, featuring a 30 runner cavalry charge down the Ascot straight.

Shrew's Shrewdies

2:30 - Ibn Malik 10/1 e/w or Gifted Master 9/1 e/w
3:05 - Lady Aurelia 15/8 (nap) or Al Jonrah 8/1 e/w
3:40 - Maimara  8/1 e/w
4:20 - A Shin Hikari 8/13 should win or The Grey Gatsby 9/1 e/w (nb)
5:00 - Instant Attraction 28/1 e/w or Arzaff 20/1 e/w
5:35 - Dolce Strega 14/1 or Persuasive 11/2


Race-by-Race Guide

2:30 - The Jersey Stakes, Group 3, 7f

Ibn Malik had exceptional 2yo form - is he still progressing?

7f is an odd distance and requires a specialist - Ibn Malik has proven that he is just that with a good second behind Emotionless in last years Champagne Stakes and a strong handicap win last time out. The Gifted Master also had strong form over this distance as a two year old but has been running over a mile or 6f since including a comfortable win here in April. He probably has slightly better form than Ibn Malik but the latter seems to still be improving.

Slightly below that form is the unbeaten Thikriyaat whose Newmarket run should translate well here. Haalick has more experience than most of these but also seems to be below the form required. Forge in contrast should go better on this ground and likely has more to come.

Castle Harbour is another with form below the very top in this race but could be anything at this stage after two good handicap wins over this distance.

Ribchester represents the classic form with his 3rd in the 2000 Guineas meaning he should be on the premises for Godolphin

Always worth being aware of the Queen especially when it's her birthday so Light Music in the royal colours is probably worth looking at - but if she wins it's a fix ;)

3:05 - Queen Mary Stakes, Group 2, 5f

Lady Aurelia is Wesley Wards 'best chance of the week'

It's a lazy analysis but when Wesley Ward is bullish he's not often wrong. He has put favourite Lady Aurelia up as his best chance of the week and she is the one least likely to be affected by the ground. She should be a lot better than these based on what we know so far. Al Jonrah best placed to follow her home

3:40 - Duke of Cambridge Stakes, Group 2, 1m

Godolphin have a very strong hand in this with 4 fancied runners. The market makes Usherette as the best chance to make it 6/7 and she was deadly last time out beating Arabian Queen and Amazing Maria at Newmarket. She has a big chance of winning here.

Lucida is one of four for Godolphin

Always Smile deserves her place here after a strong handicap win at York last time out proving she'll relish a big field - the ground is an unknown. Devonshire on the other hand has proven form on soft-heavy and will enjoy the test more. Lucida boasts strong CD form on her third in last year's Coronation Stakes - that is her best run to date and I'd expect another big run - soft ground though is a worry.

Leading the charge against the Godolphin battalion, Jazzi Top seems well held behind Usherette last time out but you can forgive her a bit of freshness on first run out and her three year old form is enough to go close. Maimara will appreciate more rain and certainly has form to go close and is a nice price after a flop last time out. Miss Temple City was just behind Lucida in the Coronation Stakes last year but will be doubtful on this ground.

4:05 - Prince of Wales Stakes, Group 1, 1m2f

The top rated horse in the world - Can he prove it at Ascot?

A select but interesting field for the feature race headed by Japanese superstar A Shin Hikari, who always wins...unless he comes 9th.... with 10 wins and 2 9ths on is race record it is an unusual profile, but he has proven that he has travelled well when picking up the Prix D'Ispahan at Chantilly in May by a tidy 10 lengths on his first run on heavy ground. He is really short in the betting so probably worth taking on.

Behind him that day was My Dream Boat who will have to improve bags to go past him. Found has shown her level over this trip and well be thereabouts - has bags of talent and good form to back it up. Tryster is a great horse on the dirt but hasn't been up to Group 1 level on turf.

The Grey Gatsby tries again in the Prince of Wales

Western Hymn is an interesting runner and showed a return to form when second behind Time Test at Sandown. He was third in this last year 2 lengths behind... The Grey Gatsby, who is one of my favourite horses but has been below his best since running Golden Horn close in last year's Eclipse. He was robbed in this last year by a poor hold up ride from Jamie Spencer. I expect him to improve for this time of year and be really prepped for this test. If A Shin Hikari turns up in the same form as Chantilly he should win, but that run was a long way above what he achieved in Japan and in an in form Found or Gatsby could beat him.

5:00 - Royal Hunt Cup, Handicap, 1m

Stupidly competitive as always. Mark Halford runs two interesting runnners in Portage and Hasanour who will likely both go well.  Convey looks too good to be here but is a big price and there are a lot of unproven elements. Last year's winner GM Hopkins should run well again.

Arzaff is younger than most of these and therefore possibly open to further progression now with headgear removed. Stats for younger horses are itn his favour... The stats also show that this race is often won by a horse and a jockey and Instant Attraction with Jack Garritty on-board is definitely that - I liked his second at Epsom at the derby meeting and he is probably due a win soon.

5:40 - Sandringham, Listed, 1m

Another ridiculous race. Godolphin are going heavy here too and I like Anamba the best of their runners - it is worth watching Hasanour in the previous race to get an indication of how good he is. Frankie Dettori and John Gosden team up again with Persuasive who they will fancy to make it a four timer and she is unexposed

Dolce Strega looks good at a price.

The Whisling Shrew - Royal Ascot Day 1 Preview

The first day of Royal Ascot is my favourite, boasting 4 group 1's. The 2016 renewals feature one of

Galileo Gold will look to reverse Irish Guineas form

with the impressive Awtaad

the most open Queen Anne stakes in years, an absorbing Coventry stakes, the race of the meeting as the French, Irish and English Guineas winners go head-to-head in the St James Palace preceded by the sprinters battling it out in the Kings Stand. With two super competitive handicaps over the marathon distance and sprint respectively to finish the card, it should be a day to savour. The forecast is looking wet, bringing in the soft ground horses and adding an interesting angle to the day 1 action.

Shrew's Shrewdies

2:30 - Belardo 9/2
3:05 - Psychedelic Funk 9/2
3:40 - Mecca's Angel 2/1 (nap)
4:20 - The Gurkha 6/4 or Emotionless 12/1 e/w
5:00 - Sempre Medici 8/1 or Jennies Jewel 6/1
5:35 - Mister Trader 6/1 or Yuleong Baobei 16/1 e/w

Race-by-race Guide

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes, Group 1, 1m

This is a greatly competitive renewal of the Queen Anne which is always a great start to the week as they hold it together for 6f of Ascot's famous straight before letting lose in the final two. With previous winners including Declaration of War, Toronado, Canford Cliffs and Frankel, the winner will be in illustrious company.

American filly Tepin arrives on the back of a 6 win streak and given the level of her form and fillies allowance it's easy to see why she has been fancied for this. However, one only needs to look far back as American hotpot Animal Kingdom who went off evs favourite here a couple of years ago before virtually blowing it by being worked up by the pace in the first two furlongs. The undulations and the straight track make this a very different test to an American mile and given the soft ground that is also now forecast that has to be a negative against her.

Ervedya comes late to beat Found in 2015's Coronation Cup

It is the complete opposite case for Esoterique who also receives a fillies allowance here and was a good second in last year's renewal just a length behind superstar Solow. She has to be fancied to run well, as does fellow filly Ervedya who runs in the Derby winning colours of Aga Kahn. She was an excellent winner of last years Coronation Stakes beating Found and Lucida in the process. That was top form and puts her in line with the very best of these.

The outsiders Toormore and Arod have past form up to winning this on their day but have to bounce back from disappointing runs. A Shin Erwin brings across Hong Kong form but looks an unlikely winner.

Belardo comes past Endless Drama to land the Lockinge

with Kodi Bear a way off behind

The key to this race may well be the Lockinge. The race was won by Belardo who got a good run down the far side of the track and quickened impressively, passing third place Endless Drama on the way - that was Endless Drama's first run in over a year and although he tired towards the end it's expected there may be more improvement - but is there enough to get past Belardo? Kodi Bear is one of, if not my absolute, favourite flat horse in training. The rain won't be a problem but I'm not sure if he is up to this or if the track suits. He tends to get better later in the season.



3:05 Coventry Stakes, Group 1 (2yo), 6f

Royal Ascot knows all about Wesley Ward and his American sprint hotpots who bomb off from the front and often stay there until the line. It is a shame therefore that the ground has gone against Silvertoni. Her inclusion though assures a fast pace and a true run race. Likely to join her near the front is Yalta who has won her two starts well - she is by Exceed and Excel who has an excellent record on the flat course at Ascot albeit over longer distances.

Air Force Blue won this well last year and this year connections run Carvaggio who looks likely to be favourite. He is top rated off of two runs in Ireland but is yet to be stepped up to six furlongs. Aiden O'Brien knows how to win this though and its a big plus - but it may be a first sign of what to expect from son Joseph O'Brien with his first Royal Ascot runner in Lundy.

Proven at the distance however is Psychedelic Funk, which is a cool name for a racehorse and he looks really good on a 6 length victory last time out.

Mokarris comes here off of a strong maiden win but Mehmas looks more exposed following a 2nd last time out.

Godolphin have two interesting contenders in Thunder Snow and Van der Decken the latter of whom was purchased recently after a debut win at the Curragh and makes the most appeal.

3:40 Kings Stand, Group 1, 5f

I think Mecca's Angel wins this. His main challenger in the form of Acapulco seems to have been

Mecca's Angel will relish the ground

withdrawn due to the rain, but the softer the ground the better for him and he has the best form of all of these in the conditions. However, he was behind Profitable last time out, going down by a neck with the eventual winner bumping him inside the final furlong - his best form tops this though and I expect him to reverse the Haydock placings. The market seems a likely guide for the 1-2 reverse forecast.

If you prefer one at a big price to back each way then Pearl's Secret has twice been placed in this and one would expect her to run well again. Last year's winner Goldream won't like the ground but could go well again.

4:20 St James' Palace, Group 1, 1m

Can the Gurkha beat Irish and English Guineas winners?

A mouth-watering clash of three classic winners; English Guineas winner Galileo Gold was beaten well by Awtaad by a convincing two and a half lengths at the Curragh in the Irish renewal and it's difficult to see him reversing the form. The main threat comes from Aiden O'Brien's potential superstar The Gurkha who dominated the French Guineas winning by over 5 lengths and enjoyed a brief stint as Derby favourite before being declared for this instead. The win in France proves his ability to run to form around a bend which is yet to be proved by Galileo Gold. Ryan Moore has put him up as his best chance of the week which considering he rides Order of St George tomorrow has to mean something. He has a better pedigree than his rivals and I think he will win.

The draw is mildly in Galileo Gold's favour and benefits Awtaad more than The Gurkha so Ryan Moore will have to be at his best to position him before the turn for home - but if anyone can do it he can!

Emotionless could be the forgotten horse having won the Champagne Stakes as a 2 year old before being injured in the Dewhurst and is worth a speculative flutter on his seasonal debut.

5:00 Ascot Stakes, Handicap, 2m4f

He's won it all over jumps and Willie Mullins is back for a

3rd win in the Ascot Stakes with Pique Sous and Sempre Medici

Royal Ascot welcomes the jumps boys and it's not surprising to see a Dermot Weld horse at the head of the market and Silver Concorde looked like he had a good prep run when 3rd in May following a disappointing run over hurdles at Cheltenham. He has to be fancied. Pique Sous is a previous winner at the Royal Meeting and is one of two Willie Mullins runners alongside Sempre Medici who ran in this year's Champion Hurdle and is the best horse in the race on hurdles ratings.

Silver Concorde was beaten by Nicky Henderson's No Heretic on seasonal debut and has a 2lb swing in the formers favour but both could run well.

Jennies Jewel is a lovely filly and I would like to see her run well. This is a rare appearance on the flat and one suspects she can go well if transferring her hurdles form.

One who does have class is Pengali Pavillion who was 5th in the 2013 Arc but has shown no such form since.

Perhaps under the radar is Moscato who has run consistently including a win here

Galizzi's price seems to have a lot of recency bias in it despite looking good winning 8 days ago.

5:35 Windsor Castle Stakes, Listed (2yo), 5f

Always a good race for bookmakers to get their money back - with some big priced winners over the years. Limited form to go off and difficult to call.

If I had to go for one it would be Mister Trader who was second to Carvaggio last time out assuming Wesley Ward's Big City Dreamin will be nullified by the ground. Yuleong Baobei looks good at a price.

The Whistling Shrew - Derby Runner By Runner Guide

'When you think you have more than one Derby winner in the field you probably don't have any' was the view of 5 time Derby winner Vincent O'Brien. His namesake today will be hoping to prove him wrong and follow up on the success of Minding in the Oaks as he runs 5 for the Derby, the most fancied of which is US Army Ranger, who despite not running as a juvenile has been a talking horse through the spring and comes here off the back of a narrow win over stablemate Port Douglas in the Chester Vase. Questions were raised that day as to how much of a race Port Douglas actually was allowed to give the favourite, but Ryan Moore's choice indicates he is the one of the five who will most likely be in the mix up. Deauville is perhaps the most established of the bunch having run well in several big races despite not quite hitting the front when it mattered.

But what a mix it is, with no standout performer making their mark on the colts division this year it is a wide open race. Last year's winning trainer and jockey combination provided a shock winner in the Dante, the same race Golden Horn took on the way to success, and will be hoping Wings of Desire can follow up here too. Prix Greffulhe winner Cloth of Stars comes with the Derby winning pedigree of the ultra popular Sea The Stars making him a half brother to Across the Stars and the eye-catching D K Weld trained Harzand.

Ulysses was beaten well behind Algomoter on debut but finds himself prominent in the market after a  10 length rout of his rivals in his Newbury prep race. Horses placed in the 2000 Guineas often run well here and Masaat brings a high level of form on his second to Galileo Gold.

The Derby typically suits a hold up horse which may play more into the hands of US Army Ranger and Cloth of Stars against their previously more prominently ridden advosaries - however, due to the openness of this renewal it is a big field and one expects that the winner, whoever it is, will need good fortune in running.

This has one of my favourite supporting cards with two group races in the Princess Elizabeth stakes and Coronation Cup and the fastest sprint on the calendar in the dash.

Shrew's Shrewdies

2:00 - Cartago 9/2
2:35 - Sayana should probably be too good 4/6
3:10 - Found 3/1
3:45 - Duke of Firenze 6/1
4:30 The Derby - Wings of Desire 6/1
The Derby 1-2-3: Wings Of Desire - Harzand - Cloth of Stars

Epsom Derby: Runner-By-Runner Guide

1. Across The Stars
One of three Sea the Stars colts who runs here and has had two good runs at Lingfield this term most recently behind Humphrey Bogary in the Derby Trial - form of that is not best on offer however so others will have to be preferred.

2. Algomoter
Beat Ulysses well as a 2yo at Newbury and has shown good improvement this year when second behind Midterm - wouldn't be the most unlikely to hit one of the places but would need a couple to underperform. A bit of cut in the ground makes it likely he'll give his running.

3. Biodynamic
Owned by Hubert Strecker and is nicely bred but no chance. I ope connections have a good day out.

4. Cloth of Stars
Five years on from Pour Moi winning Andre Fabre a first Derby they look to have another nice contender on their hands. Has run well twice this season in small fields at Saint-Cloud and likes to be dropped out the back which should really benefit him here. I would love a son of Sea the Stars to win this race and he has a very good chance.

5. Deauville
Would've been one of the top prospects for this towards the end of his 2yo season before bein beaten by Foundation in the Royal Lodge and disappointing in the Racing Post Trophy. He reversed form with Foundation however on his sole start this season in the Dante being beaten by just a neck to Wings of Desire. Is undoubtedly a class horse, but one expects his running style just in the leaders makes him vulnerable to being picked off later.

6. Harzand
May have the same problem as Deauville in being raced too prominently. That said his win over Idaho at Leopradstown wasn't far off the best form in this race and has the Sea The Stars class in breeding also.

7. Humphrey Bogart
Won Lingfield Trial so a fair chance on that but that is probably the weakest of the trial form on offer. Does have Epsom form when only losing a neck to So Mi Dar which is no bad thing and on that he is probably the preferred of the outsiders for anyone fancying a big each way bet.

8. Idaho
Beaten by two of today's competitors on previous starts and doesn't seem to have group class - suspect he'll be used to give stablemates a toe into race.

9. Massaat
Has the best pure form on offer albeit with nothing yet over a mile. Was a very good two year old and proved wellness when second in the 2000 Guineas. On both of his last runs however he has seemed to  run on rather than quicken and there is a question mark over how well he will stay... 14/1 is more than a fair price to risk finding out but may also be indicative of the lack of confidence that he will.

10. Moonlight Magic
Good win over Idaho last time out and stayed on well at the finishing line that day suggesting hell get the trip. That represented a good improvement from previous race were he finished fifth behind Harzand with no real reason given. Will not be allowed to give that sort of performance again and others probably have more class.

11. Port Douglas
Caused some controversy with the ride he was given when narrowly beaten by stable first string US Army Ranger at Chester. It was a decent run nonetheless and he has a chance of hitting the frame but again difficult to see him having the class.

12. Red Verdon
Winner of a couple of decent handicaps and supplemented here - has been improving in bounds and hitting the frame is not out of the question but would be an incredibly unconventional way to try and win the Derby and he would have to have a lot more in his locker to do so.

13. Shogun
One win from eight, will likely enjoy the trip but not much else in his favour and held by Moonlight Magic on Leopardstown run.

14. Ulysses
Weird weird price after winning easily at Newbury last time - breeding is excellent but has shown absolutely no form to deserve to be this prominent in the market. Either someone knows something we haven't seen or this is just a false market move. Happy to rule out.

15. US Army Ranger
Supposedly the first string for Ballydoyle and is unbeaten in two starts this season without particularly impressing. The confidence seemed to have come out of the stable early in the season but has been more quiet in recent weeks. The form of his Chester win is good without being breathtaking but the suspicion is he will improve. Not a great price considering his chances but if anyone is going to find the needed improvement in him it's Aiden O'Brien. Drying ground would be a plus.

16. Wings of Desire
Unseen as a two year old and largely under the radar until improving leaps and bounds to win the Dante at 9/1. That is historically the best form race for this and he should be favourite based on that. Aside from Massaat he has the best form in the race and definitely the best over a middle distance trip.

The Whistling Shrew - Oaks Runner-by-runner Guide

Prestige abound. It's Derby season and the Epsom showpiece kicks off with Oaks day, over 1m4f for the 3 year old fillies. The field is lead by 1000 Guineas winner and Irish 1000 Guineas runner up Minding who is a country mile clear on ratings and a deserved clear favourite but as yet is unproven at the trip. Aiden O'Brien had a 1-2-3 in the Newmarket and it is a feat that is possible again with Lingfield trial winner Seventh Heaven and Cheshire Oaks winner Somehow also entered.

Of those trailing in Minding's wake in Guineas only Turret Rocks re-opposes - She shaped OK in that race without really having the pace, this may be more suitable. Godolphin have had a good start to the season and run Skiffle who will also appreciate the trip. The favourite aside, it does seem to be a wide open race, with the good to soft ground perhaps opening it up to a shock winner - that would include Harlequeen and Australian Queen who were a long way back behind So Mi Dar at York - it is a shame that the latter filly is injured as she would likely have given Minding a race. The field is concluded by Hugo Palmer's Architecture and Ralph Beckett's Diamonds Pour Moi who have both been beaten by O'Brien's fillies last time out. Despite the favourites dominance on ratings achieved so far, it's likely to be a wide open race and there are holes in most of them!

Shrew's Shrewdie

4:30 - Minding 11/10f
1-2-3
Minding - Harlequeen - Turret Rocks

4:30 - Oaks, 1m4f
Runner By Runner Guide

1. Architecture
Her breeding would suggest she wants little further than a mile, however she stayed on gamely behind Seventh Heaven at Lingfield over 10f suggesting she might well get another 2 - Epsom's undulations are pretty gruelling though and it does remain an unknown - I would expect her to improve however from that seasonal debut and in Hugo Palmer she has a trainer who knows how to really bring through a middle distance filly as he has proven with multiple group winner Covert Love. Frankie Dettori is a positive.

2. Australian Queen
Running in the same silks as Arabain Queen who beat last year's Derby and Arc winner in the Juddmonte - and that might be the most positive thing to say about her chances. The Musiadora is a great trial, but she had about 10 lengths to find on the winner and 4 on Harlequeen who ran in 4th and also lines up here.

3. Diamonds Pour Moi

Another trainer who clearly knows what he's doing with fillies. Diamond's Pour Moi is not ruled out -  she was 1l behind Somehow in a good trial at Chester - she was done for toe inside the final furlong there but it was her first run of the season and the little bit of soft in the ground today may mean that that counts for less today. Not ruled out.

4. Harlequeen
Has obvious stamina running on well in both starts this season despite settling badly - won't get away with that today but if she has matured a little then has a chance of running into the frame.

5. Minding
Looked emphatic in the 1000 Guineas and would've done so again if not for running into a drastically improved Jet Setting getting her conditions at the Curragh. She is by Galileo so one would expect that the trip should be suitable despite not yet being tested at this distance. On one hand the way she battled against Jet Setting from a long way out in the Irish Guineas backs this up, on the other hand, that race was less than a fortnight ago and it's difficult to say what her exertions already this season have taken out of her. She should be able to win this doing handstands and any odds against may look big come 4:35, but she is far from bulletproof.

6. Seventh Heaven 
Winning an Oaks Trial is not a bad thing and represented a big step forward from a largely disappointing two year old season and a nothingy win at Dundalk on the all weather over 1m. Seems to have emerged from relatively out of nowhere but has the good pedigree to suggest a big run - however one would expect that as the weaker of the O'Brien trio that she might well be in a role of setting things up for the winner more than running her own race. We shall see.

7. Skiffle
Another to have emerged from obscurity - the fact that she didn't run as a two year old feels like a negative and it's hard to get my head around the high rating achieved last time out albeit for a good listed win at Goodwood. I might be proved completely wrong but there is better form on offer at better odds.

8. Somehow 
Really interesting competitor based on Chester win beating Diamonds Pour Moi in the process. Less can be read into Ryan Moore's selection on fillies than can be on colts, and there may be some loyalty to Minding after her Guineas win - however I'd take that as a sign that she is a clear stable number one. If her stamina does come undone though this could be the horse to save the day and pick up the pieces for Ireland.

9. Turret Rocks 
I like Turret Rocks a lot as I already mentioned in my Guineas preview, but she was badly outpaced on that day. A test of stamina would likely be much more up her street and it is a big plus that Jim Bolger decided to swerve the Irish Guineas with her to come here instead. A bounce back is certainly possible and the run behind Ballydoyle in the Marcel Boussac proves a level of class. However she did disappoint hugely in fading back to 6th very quickly when beaten at Newmarket and that may be hard to instantly forgive.