'When you think you have more than one Derby winner in the field you probably don't have any' was the view of 5 time Derby winner Vincent O'Brien. His namesake today will be hoping to prove him wrong and follow up on the success of Minding in the Oaks as he runs 5 for the Derby, the most fancied of which is US Army Ranger, who despite not running as a juvenile has been a talking horse through the spring and comes here off the back of a narrow win over stablemate Port Douglas in the Chester Vase. Questions were raised that day as to how much of a race Port Douglas actually was allowed to give the favourite, but Ryan Moore's choice indicates he is the one of the five who will most likely be in the mix up. Deauville is perhaps the most established of the bunch having run well in several big races despite not quite hitting the front when it mattered.
But what a mix it is, with no standout performer making their mark on the colts division this year it is a wide open race. Last year's winning trainer and jockey combination provided a shock winner in the Dante, the same race Golden Horn took on the way to success, and will be hoping Wings of Desire can follow up here too. Prix Greffulhe winner Cloth of Stars comes with the Derby winning pedigree of the ultra popular Sea The Stars making him a half brother to Across the Stars and the eye-catching D K Weld trained Harzand.
Ulysses was beaten well behind Algomoter on debut but finds himself prominent in the market after a 10 length rout of his rivals in his Newbury prep race. Horses placed in the 2000 Guineas often run well here and Masaat brings a high level of form on his second to Galileo Gold.
The Derby typically suits a hold up horse which may play more into the hands of US Army Ranger and Cloth of Stars against their previously more prominently ridden advosaries - however, due to the openness of this renewal it is a big field and one expects that the winner, whoever it is, will need good fortune in running.
This has one of my favourite supporting cards with two group races in the Princess Elizabeth stakes and Coronation Cup and the fastest sprint on the calendar in the dash.
Shrew's Shrewdies
2:00 - Cartago 9/2
2:35 - Sayana should probably be too good 4/6
3:10 - Found 3/1
3:45 - Duke of Firenze 6/1
4:30 The Derby - Wings of Desire 6/1
The Derby 1-2-3: Wings Of Desire - Harzand - Cloth of Stars
Epsom Derby: Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. Across The Stars
One of three Sea the Stars colts who runs here and has had two good runs at Lingfield this term most recently behind Humphrey Bogary in the Derby Trial - form of that is not best on offer however so others will have to be preferred.
2. Algomoter
Beat Ulysses well as a 2yo at Newbury and has shown good improvement this year when second behind Midterm - wouldn't be the most unlikely to hit one of the places but would need a couple to underperform. A bit of cut in the ground makes it likely he'll give his running.
3. Biodynamic
Owned by Hubert Strecker and is nicely bred but no chance. I ope connections have a good day out.
4. Cloth of Stars
Five years on from Pour Moi winning Andre Fabre a first Derby they look to have another nice contender on their hands. Has run well twice this season in small fields at Saint-Cloud and likes to be dropped out the back which should really benefit him here. I would love a son of Sea the Stars to win this race and he has a very good chance.
5. Deauville
Would've been one of the top prospects for this towards the end of his 2yo season before bein beaten by Foundation in the Royal Lodge and disappointing in the Racing Post Trophy. He reversed form with Foundation however on his sole start this season in the Dante being beaten by just a neck to Wings of Desire. Is undoubtedly a class horse, but one expects his running style just in the leaders makes him vulnerable to being picked off later.
6. Harzand
May have the same problem as Deauville in being raced too prominently. That said his win over Idaho at Leopradstown wasn't far off the best form in this race and has the Sea The Stars class in breeding also.
7. Humphrey Bogart
Won Lingfield Trial so a fair chance on that but that is probably the weakest of the trial form on offer. Does have Epsom form when only losing a neck to So Mi Dar which is no bad thing and on that he is probably the preferred of the outsiders for anyone fancying a big each way bet.
8. Idaho
Beaten by two of today's competitors on previous starts and doesn't seem to have group class - suspect he'll be used to give stablemates a toe into race.
9. Massaat
Has the best pure form on offer albeit with nothing yet over a mile. Was a very good two year old and proved wellness when second in the 2000 Guineas. On both of his last runs however he has seemed to run on rather than quicken and there is a question mark over how well he will stay... 14/1 is more than a fair price to risk finding out but may also be indicative of the lack of confidence that he will.
10. Moonlight Magic
Good win over Idaho last time out and stayed on well at the finishing line that day suggesting hell get the trip. That represented a good improvement from previous race were he finished fifth behind Harzand with no real reason given. Will not be allowed to give that sort of performance again and others probably have more class.
11. Port Douglas
Caused some controversy with the ride he was given when narrowly beaten by stable first string US Army Ranger at Chester. It was a decent run nonetheless and he has a chance of hitting the frame but again difficult to see him having the class.
12. Red Verdon
Winner of a couple of decent handicaps and supplemented here - has been improving in bounds and hitting the frame is not out of the question but would be an incredibly unconventional way to try and win the Derby and he would have to have a lot more in his locker to do so.
13. Shogun
One win from eight, will likely enjoy the trip but not much else in his favour and held by Moonlight Magic on Leopardstown run.
14. Ulysses
Weird weird price after winning easily at Newbury last time - breeding is excellent but has shown absolutely no form to deserve to be this prominent in the market. Either someone knows something we haven't seen or this is just a false market move. Happy to rule out.
15. US Army Ranger
Supposedly the first string for Ballydoyle and is unbeaten in two starts this season without particularly impressing. The confidence seemed to have come out of the stable early in the season but has been more quiet in recent weeks. The form of his Chester win is good without being breathtaking but the suspicion is he will improve. Not a great price considering his chances but if anyone is going to find the needed improvement in him it's Aiden O'Brien. Drying ground would be a plus.
16. Wings of Desire
Unseen as a two year old and largely under the radar until improving leaps and bounds to win the Dante at 9/1. That is historically the best form race for this and he should be favourite based on that. Aside from Massaat he has the best form in the race and definitely the best over a middle distance trip.
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