The Whisling Shrew - Royal Ascot Day 1 Preview

The first day of Royal Ascot is my favourite, boasting 4 group 1's. The 2016 renewals feature one of

Galileo Gold will look to reverse Irish Guineas form

with the impressive Awtaad

the most open Queen Anne stakes in years, an absorbing Coventry stakes, the race of the meeting as the French, Irish and English Guineas winners go head-to-head in the St James Palace preceded by the sprinters battling it out in the Kings Stand. With two super competitive handicaps over the marathon distance and sprint respectively to finish the card, it should be a day to savour. The forecast is looking wet, bringing in the soft ground horses and adding an interesting angle to the day 1 action.

Shrew's Shrewdies

2:30 - Belardo 9/2
3:05 - Psychedelic Funk 9/2
3:40 - Mecca's Angel 2/1 (nap)
4:20 - The Gurkha 6/4 or Emotionless 12/1 e/w
5:00 - Sempre Medici 8/1 or Jennies Jewel 6/1
5:35 - Mister Trader 6/1 or Yuleong Baobei 16/1 e/w

Race-by-race Guide

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes, Group 1, 1m

This is a greatly competitive renewal of the Queen Anne which is always a great start to the week as they hold it together for 6f of Ascot's famous straight before letting lose in the final two. With previous winners including Declaration of War, Toronado, Canford Cliffs and Frankel, the winner will be in illustrious company.

American filly Tepin arrives on the back of a 6 win streak and given the level of her form and fillies allowance it's easy to see why she has been fancied for this. However, one only needs to look far back as American hotpot Animal Kingdom who went off evs favourite here a couple of years ago before virtually blowing it by being worked up by the pace in the first two furlongs. The undulations and the straight track make this a very different test to an American mile and given the soft ground that is also now forecast that has to be a negative against her.

Ervedya comes late to beat Found in 2015's Coronation Cup

It is the complete opposite case for Esoterique who also receives a fillies allowance here and was a good second in last year's renewal just a length behind superstar Solow. She has to be fancied to run well, as does fellow filly Ervedya who runs in the Derby winning colours of Aga Kahn. She was an excellent winner of last years Coronation Stakes beating Found and Lucida in the process. That was top form and puts her in line with the very best of these.

The outsiders Toormore and Arod have past form up to winning this on their day but have to bounce back from disappointing runs. A Shin Erwin brings across Hong Kong form but looks an unlikely winner.

Belardo comes past Endless Drama to land the Lockinge

with Kodi Bear a way off behind

The key to this race may well be the Lockinge. The race was won by Belardo who got a good run down the far side of the track and quickened impressively, passing third place Endless Drama on the way - that was Endless Drama's first run in over a year and although he tired towards the end it's expected there may be more improvement - but is there enough to get past Belardo? Kodi Bear is one of, if not my absolute, favourite flat horse in training. The rain won't be a problem but I'm not sure if he is up to this or if the track suits. He tends to get better later in the season.



3:05 Coventry Stakes, Group 1 (2yo), 6f

Royal Ascot knows all about Wesley Ward and his American sprint hotpots who bomb off from the front and often stay there until the line. It is a shame therefore that the ground has gone against Silvertoni. Her inclusion though assures a fast pace and a true run race. Likely to join her near the front is Yalta who has won her two starts well - she is by Exceed and Excel who has an excellent record on the flat course at Ascot albeit over longer distances.

Air Force Blue won this well last year and this year connections run Carvaggio who looks likely to be favourite. He is top rated off of two runs in Ireland but is yet to be stepped up to six furlongs. Aiden O'Brien knows how to win this though and its a big plus - but it may be a first sign of what to expect from son Joseph O'Brien with his first Royal Ascot runner in Lundy.

Proven at the distance however is Psychedelic Funk, which is a cool name for a racehorse and he looks really good on a 6 length victory last time out.

Mokarris comes here off of a strong maiden win but Mehmas looks more exposed following a 2nd last time out.

Godolphin have two interesting contenders in Thunder Snow and Van der Decken the latter of whom was purchased recently after a debut win at the Curragh and makes the most appeal.

3:40 Kings Stand, Group 1, 5f

I think Mecca's Angel wins this. His main challenger in the form of Acapulco seems to have been

Mecca's Angel will relish the ground

withdrawn due to the rain, but the softer the ground the better for him and he has the best form of all of these in the conditions. However, he was behind Profitable last time out, going down by a neck with the eventual winner bumping him inside the final furlong - his best form tops this though and I expect him to reverse the Haydock placings. The market seems a likely guide for the 1-2 reverse forecast.

If you prefer one at a big price to back each way then Pearl's Secret has twice been placed in this and one would expect her to run well again. Last year's winner Goldream won't like the ground but could go well again.

4:20 St James' Palace, Group 1, 1m

Can the Gurkha beat Irish and English Guineas winners?

A mouth-watering clash of three classic winners; English Guineas winner Galileo Gold was beaten well by Awtaad by a convincing two and a half lengths at the Curragh in the Irish renewal and it's difficult to see him reversing the form. The main threat comes from Aiden O'Brien's potential superstar The Gurkha who dominated the French Guineas winning by over 5 lengths and enjoyed a brief stint as Derby favourite before being declared for this instead. The win in France proves his ability to run to form around a bend which is yet to be proved by Galileo Gold. Ryan Moore has put him up as his best chance of the week which considering he rides Order of St George tomorrow has to mean something. He has a better pedigree than his rivals and I think he will win.

The draw is mildly in Galileo Gold's favour and benefits Awtaad more than The Gurkha so Ryan Moore will have to be at his best to position him before the turn for home - but if anyone can do it he can!

Emotionless could be the forgotten horse having won the Champagne Stakes as a 2 year old before being injured in the Dewhurst and is worth a speculative flutter on his seasonal debut.

5:00 Ascot Stakes, Handicap, 2m4f

He's won it all over jumps and Willie Mullins is back for a

3rd win in the Ascot Stakes with Pique Sous and Sempre Medici

Royal Ascot welcomes the jumps boys and it's not surprising to see a Dermot Weld horse at the head of the market and Silver Concorde looked like he had a good prep run when 3rd in May following a disappointing run over hurdles at Cheltenham. He has to be fancied. Pique Sous is a previous winner at the Royal Meeting and is one of two Willie Mullins runners alongside Sempre Medici who ran in this year's Champion Hurdle and is the best horse in the race on hurdles ratings.

Silver Concorde was beaten by Nicky Henderson's No Heretic on seasonal debut and has a 2lb swing in the formers favour but both could run well.

Jennies Jewel is a lovely filly and I would like to see her run well. This is a rare appearance on the flat and one suspects she can go well if transferring her hurdles form.

One who does have class is Pengali Pavillion who was 5th in the 2013 Arc but has shown no such form since.

Perhaps under the radar is Moscato who has run consistently including a win here

Galizzi's price seems to have a lot of recency bias in it despite looking good winning 8 days ago.

5:35 Windsor Castle Stakes, Listed (2yo), 5f

Always a good race for bookmakers to get their money back - with some big priced winners over the years. Limited form to go off and difficult to call.

If I had to go for one it would be Mister Trader who was second to Carvaggio last time out assuming Wesley Ward's Big City Dreamin will be nullified by the ground. Yuleong Baobei looks good at a price.