The Wandering Shrew - Dubai World Cup Night Preview

It's Dubai World Cup Night, always a nice reminder that flat racing is just around the corner. This year the card is topped with the best horse in the world Arrogate who is supported by a star studded cast on the worlds richest race night.


Shrew's Shrewdies

11:45 - Godoplphin Mile, 1m
             Sharp Azteca 9/4

12:50 - Dubai Gold Cup, 2m
             Sheikhzayedroad 10/1 e.w
               
1:25 - UAE Derby, 1m1f
           Lancaster Bomber 9/1e.w.

2:00 - Al Quoz Sprint, 6f
           Limato 11/4

2:35 - Dubai Golden Shaheen, 6f
           Morawij 6/1 or Not Listenin'tome 14/1 e.w.
          

3:30 - Dubai Turf, 1m1f
           Ribchester 10/3

4:05  - Dubai Sheema Classic, 1m4f
            Seventh Heaven 6/1

4:45 -  World Cup, 1m2f
           Arrogate 1/3 or Awardee 66/1 e/w

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival Review

The final day of the festival started with quality coming to the fore. Despite all the positive noises about Charlie Parcs, Defi Du Seuil showed why he came into the Triumph Hurdle a top rated by extending his winning streak. Travelling comfortably throughout he quickened like a very good horse when in the straight to score a big win for Phillip Hobbs. The quality continued to shine in the County Hurdle as the first two in the weights, Arctic Fire and L'Ami Serge shared a photograph for first, with the Willie Mullins runner taking the spoils.




As expected, Death Duty was beaten before they got to the hill in the Albert Bartlett and it continues to be a race that eludes classy horses. Turning in Wholestone looked to have an excellent chance when switched to the rail and in the end was just outpaced by quicker horses. Both the winner and the second look excellent prospects for next year and are sure to feature on this card in the years to come.


In the main event, the clash between the two favourites seemed to be on as Djakadam laid down the challenge to long term leader Native River when turning for home, but in the end neither had the speed or staying ability to stop Sizing John who benefitted from a slow pace to claim victory which looked assured from the time he jumped the last in front. It was a great ride from Robbie Power conserving energy on the inside rail the whole way around. The fact that Minella Rocco stayed on so well makes me question if Native River quite has the speed on an undulating course as he does on the flat. I would be very interested to see the horse if he turns up at Aintree in a few weeks time. As for the winner, he remains unexposed over a long distance test and could well be back in good form to defend his crown next year. It will certainly be interesting to see what he delivers off of a stronger pace.




On the Fringe just never quite got going in the Foxhunters as Pacha Du Polder - famously the mount of Victoria Pendleton last year - was given a beautiful ride to put his nose out in front despite the late challenge from stablemate Wonderful Charm, giving Paul Nicholls some much needed prize money. It will be interesting to see whether he can maintain his place in the trainers championship running up to the season finale at Sandown in April. Champagne Classic was a worthy winner of the Martin Pipe before Rock the World went two better than last year to claim the grand annual on a great day for Jessica Harrington in a perfect end to the festival.




Favourite Moments of the Week

13. Willoughby Court downs the Wolf

Considered to be the banker for many, Neon Wolf rode like the good horse that he is and worked his way into the race, but the front-running Willoughby Court showed he's as gutsy as he is quick. Both are set to go chasing next year so hopefully this will be the first of several clashes between the pair.

12. Pacha wins for Pendo

One year on from coming a fast finishing fifth under Victoria Pendleton, Pacha Du Polder landed the Foxhunters to give Paul Nicholls his first winner of the week.

11. Sizing John remains unexposed

Jumping the last there was only one horse who was going to win the Gold Cup and that was Sizing John who completed an Anglo-Irish Gold Cup double. He has only run twice at trips over three miles and has won both. Some may argue that the slower pace helped him stay in the race, but by all accounts he was a worthy winner and heads to Punchestown with his distance record intact.

10. Willie's comeback kings 

You can't beat Cheltenham Form and as Willie Mullins mounted a comeback of his own having had no winners for the first two days, it was several of his less renowned stable stars who got their days in the sun as Nichols Canyon won the Stayers having been placed in a Champion Hurdle, Arctic Fire won the county hurdle having been second in 2014 and second in the Champion Hurdle in 2015 and Un De Sceaux bounced back to win the Ryanair having been beaten by Sprinter Sacre last year.


9. Fehily's big race double

What a week for Noel Fehily - Being third in the stayers (albeit on the favourite) and second in the Gold Cup would've made it a good week in anyones books, but add a Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase win to the list then it has to be one of the best weeks a jockey (who isn't Ruby Walsh) has every enjoyed. Buveur D'Air and Special Tiara's wins were both memorable for different reasons - the former switching back to hurdles from fences and the latter taking advantage of a failing favourite but both were delivered with assured jockeyship to win when it mattered.

8.  Defi Delivers

The pressure that was on Phillip Hobbs to deliver probably didn't show until after the Triumph hurdle. There was a rush of people (me included) willing to take on his hot favourite for the Triumph - who now looks one of the most exciting prospects for the Champion Hurdle or Arkle next year - but the favourite delivered in style to kick off the final day of the meeting and was truly class. The relief of the Hobbs team and delight of the horses groom made this a heart-warming win for a horse that is clearly riddled with talent but means a lot to them.

7. Un Temps Pour Tout wins off of top weight


It takes a very good horse to win a handicap off top weight but to win one as good as the Ultima after winning the race last year takes an exceptional one. Tom Scudamore delivered a foot perfect performance from Un Temps Pour Tout to see off Singlefarmpayment and Noble Endeavour (both surely future grade 1 horses) and land back to back victories in the race. Superb ride and a superb horse that will surely have to step up to the Gold Cup test next time he returns to Cheltenham.

6. Jade becomes new Queen of Cheltenham

Undoubtedly one of the most exciting finished of the festival was in the mares hurdle - a race that's usually dominated by one standout talent suddenly had three top quality animals and it was the Gigginstown mare moved from Willie Mullins yard to rival Gordon Elliott at the start of the year who stayed on gamely to split the pair in the end. Hopefully a sign of things to come as the race grows in stature.

5. Tiger Roll completes the Triumph/4 Mile double


Surely a unique statistic. He came into the race as top rated but no-one quite believed that little Tiger Roll - a horse off the flat could win over fences, let alone over 4 miles - but he did. In an exceptionally calm ride by Lisa O'Neill he was nursed around and his quality showed in the end when forging clear in the amateurs race.

4. Ruby Walsh produces a masterclass

Described as the single greatest display of jockeyship ever seen; beginning with calming the maniac Yorkhill, produced at just the right time to stop him idling too long in front; letting another maniac in Un De Sceaux bowl along in front in the Ryanair; giving a stalking energy conserving ride to Nichols Canyon, before admittedly a steering job on Let's Dance - sensational jockeyship from Cheltenham's number one.

3. Labaik wins the Supreme


A superb horse and a massive quirkbag - he refuses to race and he wins. What's not to like. From the moment the beautiful grey set off it was in the back of my mind to watch him and see how good he was. As it turned out he was very good. Ironically if he refuses again he could be banned from racing, or, he could win a Champion Hurdle!

2. Un De Sceaux beats O'Leary's in the Ryanair

The equine performance of the week was certainly Un De Sceaux. Deciding the pace wasn't quick enough, he tugged Ruby Walsh into the race with well over a mile to go and then just didn't stop. Inch perfect at all bar one of his fences, we then saw the perfect rhythm of horse and jockey as he pinged the last and stayed on up the hill. The best bit being that the two horses that followed him home were both owned by Gigginstown with the owner still not winning his own race.

1. Might Bite throws it away, then gets it back.

How talented is Might Bite? - This had everything we love about horse racing. Going from the front, nothing could stay with him after a circuit. He jumped majestically and ate up the ground in front of him and then - almost sensing it was the last fence suddenly looked in trouble, needing his jockey to pull him over it before wandering off up the run-in, pulling his way back to the stables, only to then be switched to follow a loose horse and get up to deny the fast finishing whisper by a nose in the dying strides. It was poetry - they doubted he'd get up the hill and they were right, but he won anyway. A serious serious talent.

Shrews Shrewdies - Winners and Placed Horses

Altior 1/4 (1st)
Singlefarmpayment 10/1 (2nd - by a nose)
Apples Jade 4/1 (1st)
Golden Present 12/1 (2nd)
Apples Jade, Vroum Vroum Mag, Limini Trifecta 21.78/1 (1st,2nd,3rd)
Willoughby Court 14/1 (1st)
Might Bite 4/1 (1st)
Divin Bere 6/1 (2nd)
Un De Sceaux 5/2 (1st)
Let's Dance 11/8 (1st)
Yorkhill, Un De Sceaux, Let's Dance Treble (all 1st)
Taquin Du Seuil 20/1 (2nd)
Barney Dwan 33/1 (2nd)
Wholestone 6/1 (3rd)
Runfordave 8/1 (3rd)
Coo De Sivola 16/1 (4th)

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival Preview Day 4

Yorkhill timed to perfection to  jump the last in front in the JLT

Day 3: Willie Mullins was finally off the mark with Yorkhill, who was tucked in beautifully at the back by Ruby Walsh delivering him around the inside. It was not without luck as the horse gracefully sidestepped a couple of fallers in front of him on the way round - Flying Angel however was not so lucky loosing about 10 lengths - he'll be back another day. The race was nicely poised at the second last as Yorkhill out-jumped Top Notch before pulling clear of Disko. Given the chance again, Daryl Jacob may have clung to the rail a bit tighter and given his mount a better look at the second last as Top Notch was closing again at the end but that is probably splitting hairs and the winner was well worth his second Cheltenham victory. All systems go for a crack at next year's Gold Cup? And maybe a Ryanair bid for Top Notch.

Russell delivers Presenting Percy with aplomb to land back to back
Pertemps wins for connections

The Pertemps should really be renamed the Davy Russell Handicap stakes as the Cheltenham maestro produced Presenting Percy sublimely up the home straight. For a moment I thought that Barney Dwan might be about to land a big win for followers of the Shrew but as soon as you see a Davy Russell mount coming around the outside like that you just know you're doomed as he never times it wrong. Superb jockey and a horse to watch for next year. All the same a good each way at 20/1 (was 33s when tipped in the festival preview) for Barney Dwan in second. Jury Duty was a good third for Gordon Elliott and an old handicap favourite The Tourad Man did excellently to stay on in fourth. For Good Measure was one of the hard luck stories here getting bunched in and finishing well.


Un De Sceaux makes it two on the day for Walsh and Mullins

Back to the Grade 1s and Willie Mullins fired again with an outrageous performance from Un De Sceaux in winning the Ryanair. The horse must have been watching the tapes from Day 1 and 2 looking at the likes of Labaik, Might Bite and Tiger Roll and clearly decided to prove there is only one King of the Equine Lunatics. For the first couple of fences he looked to be settled nicely in midfield but then decided he wanted to go faster, pulled his (and Ruby Walsh's) way to the front and never looked back. I'd fancy him in the King George if he showed up - Imagine if Might Bite and Thistlecrack make it there too... we can dream.


Empire of Dirt never really fired and Gigginstown's second string ended up taking second place in the Ryanair owners own race (A bad sign for Sizing John in the Gold Cup today). The beautiful subplot being the O'Leary had to present the trophy to Willie Mullins having removed 60 horses from his yard at the beginning of the season.



And if things were going well at that stage for Walsh and Mullins then they must have been on cloud 9 after the Stayers Hurdle as Ruby Walsh drove Nichols Canyon to victory to beat Unowhatimeanharry who came in third just behind a great run from the brilliant Lil Rockerfeller. Placed in a champion hurdle and always campaigned with vigour, Nichols Canyon proved that he is all class and emulated the great Inglis Drever who won two Stayers Hurdles in the same colours for owner Graham Wylie who completed a double on the day with Yorkhill's earlier success.

Nichols Canyon closes the gap on Lil Rockerfeller
for winner 3, before Let's Dance provides a 4 timer

Cole Harden went off hard from the front as expected and was left there until two out when Unowhatimeanharry loomed to strike. I feel that the favourite probably could've done with the pace being kept up a little bit longer as his strength is very much in staying up the straight rather than making it from the front. Either way Lil Rockerfeller got first run on him and Walsh, clinging to the rail got Nichols Canyon on a straight line to power home. He is a great little horse with a fantastic constitution. I remember when he was a novice here and used to take his hurdles incredibly low, he's matured superbly and fully deserves to be a Cheltenham Festival winner.



Gigginstown got some compensation for their earlier defeat as Road for Respect forged clear to pick up the festival plate before Ruby Walsh struck again to land the Shrewdies nap on Let's Dance in the mares novice - this horse would've gone close against the geldings and won easily to pick up stable staff a 50,000 euro bonus. She completed a treble for Shrewdie backers with Unowhatimeanharry the only leg to not quite deliver. Domesday book came home first in the Kim Muir under a great ride from yet another upcoming female jockey in Miss Gina Andrews - and yet the BBC still focus on Lizzie Kelly and Tea for Two- ah well....

***

Day 4 starts with the Triumph which has a hot favourite in Defi Du Seuil. All through the season it looked like his main challenger for favouritism would come from a horse in the same colours, Charli Parcs - who was advised as an each way bet at 10/1 in my festival preview, but is now backed into 4s. According to Nicky Henderson Charli Parcs has been working the house down and would be streets ahead of Divin Bere who was a close second in the Fred Winter off of top weight. He is a serious horse - but he is not favourite because last time out he was beaten - looking awkward all race he was just coming back onto the bridle when falling at the second last (injuring Barry Gerahty in the process) and handing the race to the impressive and fast improving winner Master Blueeyes. This is teed up to be a great race whatever the result.



In the County, Dan Skelton bids for a second successive win with North Hill Harvey. The race also sees the return of former triumph winner Peace and Co from a spell in the wilderness. Then we move onto the gruelling Albert Bartlett for staying novice hurdlers, where high flying Gordon Elliott runs by his own admission his nap of the week in Death Duty who is already a grade 1 winner. On the Fringe returns in a bid for what will be an historic third Foxhunters with man of the moment Jamie Codd on his back and the card concludes with two tricky handicaps in the Martin Pipe and the Grand Annual.

Djakadam (right) beaten by Don Cossack in 2016.
Can he go one better on third time of asking?

But more importantly, this is Gold Cup Day and to celebrate I've written an essay which hopefully provides some insight into the key runners, as well as containing a few paragraphs that are simply me declaring my love of Native River. So enjoy that.


The retirements and injuries to many big names; Don Cossack, Coneygree, Thistlecrack, Don Poli, Many Clouds and Vautour mean that this race could perhaps be viewed as having no stand out contender. What we are left with then is a fiercely competitive betting heat with Tizzard the West Country Wizard (Cue Card and Native River) taking on Ireland who's charge is lead by twice second Djakadam, Irish Gold Cup winner Sizing John and Lexus winner Outlander. There are subplots galore - can Cue Card win at 11 years old? Can Djakadam emulate The Fellow and finally win at third time of asking? Will Native River be caught from the front? Can Sizing John break the Irish Gold Cup hoodoo in this race? Has everyone forgotten More of That? Who is Champagne West? Will Bristol De Mai be tricked into thinking he is running at Haydock on soft ground and manage to perform on the biggest stage of all? All will be revealed on the final day of Cheltenham!



Stay Shrewd.



t.w.s.



Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 - If rumours about Charli Parcs (nap)  are true then he has an excellent chance. He was advised on the preview blog at 10/1 but is now 7/2 - the money has come for this horse and he could be something special but at the prices I'd side with Master Blue Eyes 6/1 or Landofhopeandglory 14/1 e/w

2:10 - Wait for Me 16/1, North Hill Harvey 7/1, or Song Light 25/1 e/w

2:50 - Death Duty could be something special but I'll take him on with Wholestone 7/1 e/w

3:30 - The Cheltenham Gold Cup - Native River 9/2  or Outlander 8/1


Just for fun 1-2-3: Native River -  Djakadam - Outlander

4:10 - On The Fringe 11/8

4:50 - no great opinion:  Runfordave 8/1 or Coo Star Sivola 16/1 e/w

5:30 - Le Prezien 10/1 e/w or Pairofbrowneyes 16/1 e/w

Race-By-Race Guide

1:30 - Triumph Hurdle, 2m

On ratings Defi Du Seuil would be a good thing here to make it back to back wins for JP McManus and he is deservedly favourite, but this is always a tricky race to call with young horses improving for he better ground.

Would Charli Parcs have won the Adonis?

One such horse in that mould is Master Blueyes who was a runaway winner of the Adonis hurdle last time out scoring by 11 lengths. He would need to show a fair bit of improvement again for his first run at Cheltenham but that is by no means out of the question. You would have to have him as the one to beat the favourite, but on the distance looms a potential monster. Charli Parcs was talked up as possibly being entered in the Supreme. He was getting back on terms with Master Blueyes at Kempton before coming down - would he have won? I have no idea. But the vibes are that since that fall he is thriving - I have even heard that he is beating Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D'Air on the gallops... make of that what you will.  The spring ground could be a massive factor for this horse but his price has absolutely plummeted. If you were on at 10/1 as advised at the weekend it could be the bet of the festival, but at current prices I'd prefer to side with the horse who benefitted from his misfortune



The best chance of the Irish raiders would be for Mega Fortune who again is a fast improving sort for man of the moment Gordon Elliott. If the race does go to one outside the top 4 in the betting it might well be Landofhopeandglory for Joseph O'Brien. He won this race last year with Ivanovich Gorbotov and this horse has a similar profile having been a winner earlier in the season before fading. He was obviously a very good horse on the flat so improvement for the better ground is not out of the question and he could be a massive price if finding it. Either way you'd expect JP McManus to be disappointed if he doesn't have the winner.



Landofhopeandglory finished ahead of Mega Fortune but behind Bapaume in December. It seems that the progression of the Gordon Elliott horse has been better than that of the other two horses but I'd give Landofhopeandglory an each way squeak.

2:10 - County Handicap Hurdle, 2m1f

The form of last year's supreme novice has repeatedly smacked us in the face enough times this week with Altior, Buveur D'Air, Supersundae all winning and Petit Mouchoir running pretty well. It is hard not to back North Hill Harvey here off the back of that to give Dan Skelton a second winner in this race in as many years.



But there is other good festival form all over this race. Most notably Arctic Fire who was second in Faugheen's Champion Hurdle and was last seen behind Faugheen again at Leopardstown last January. If he retains any of that sort of ability he could be primed for a big run for Willie Mullins and would have to be preferred to Renetti for the trainer who has a good runner in this race.



L'Ami Serge is a bit of an oddball but has run well here and definitely looks more at home over hurdles than fences. Wait for Me came out of Moon Racer's bumper - the form of which hasn't been particularly good this week. Diego Du Charmil won last year's Fred Winter well and has been campaigned fairly honestly in handicaps which means he may not be on the best mark here.

North Hill Harvey has been tucked away since the Greatwood.
Can team Skelton strike again?

The other juvenile winner at last year's festival was of course Ivanovich Gorbatov who came good or the spring ground for Joseph O'Brien. Apples Jade gave a big plus to that form with her win in the mares hurdle. He doesn't seem to have progressed much in the last year or so but if he can find the same improvement of form for the better ground as he did last year he could easily make a mockery of his mark. Off more appealing marks however are JP McManus' other two horses Winter Escape and  De Name Escapes Me, who could both be prepped for a big running.

McManus horses do tend to be overbet in this big handicaps, so it may be better looking at value elsewhere. Other than having a great name, Air Horse One has been progressive this year going up 10lbs for three wins in a row. Harry Fry knows how to place them so I might give him the benefit of the doubt that there's more progression there.



I always like to keep one at the bottom of the weights onside and Song Light was only 2 lengths behind North Hill Harvey here in the Greatwood in November and receives a stone here... the phrase 'well in' springs to mind.

2:50 - Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, 3m

Death Duty is probably the most impressive Irish novice this year and has been dominating the top races over 2m4f in Ireland. He looks really good but Gordon Elliott's comments that he is better than Don Cossack at this stage of his career can be taken with a pinch of salt as the latter horse was much much better over fences. He is top rated but this will be the most gruelling test he has faced to date. 3m is a marathon distance for novices and he hasn't yet had to show the grit required to win this.

Death Duty - the latest in a line of delightfully named Gigginstown horses

Moreover, it's a graveyard for short-priced favourites as it doesn't always reward the horse with the most ability. My preference therefore is for Wholestone whose 4 last runs have been here, three of which have ended in victory over top quality opposition and two of which were over todays distance. He has course distance form and is highly rated and is backable at an each way price. To my mind he's one of the best bets of the festival. If you can get him at a dirty each way price then even better.

Willie Mullins maintains that Augusta Kate would have beaten Death Duty had she not fallen at the last when they met. I'm not so sure but they aren't words to be taken lightly and she could be in the mix if running up to a similar level.


Monalee is another horse to have run well against Death Duty and showed he enjoyed the step up in trip last time out when winning in heavy ground over three miles. There is a possibility he could reverse form if this becomes a slog.


The World's End also ran a good trial for this at Haydock by beating No Hassle Hoff 9 lengths. That takes some doing and would put him 5 lengths ahead of Wholestone if taking that form literally. I will however assume the flat track at Haydock exaggerated the wining margin and that Wholestone's course form s of more value on this occasion. But as always very much prepared to be proven wrong.



3:30 - FEATURE RACE - The Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3m2f


They are all pretty close on ratings and so it comes down to which horse is equipped best and gets the luck on the day. Here are my musings:


Cue Card

366 days ago. They head down the hill to the third last; three principle players all in a line: Don Cossack, Cue Card and Djakadam. Pause the tape and what happens? In my view Don Cossack would've won, with Cue Card beating Djakadam into second by about 2 lengths. Others will tell you Cue Card would've gotten the edge over Don Cossack to score a million pound bonus. Others still will tell you that Cue Card would've emptied up the hill to finish a game third. As it happens, Cue Card fell, so we'll never know anything except that Don Cossack was a worthy winner on the day.

Cue Card out to show age is no barrier to success

But now at 11 years of age, Colin Tizzard brings his star - and he is a star - back to Prestbury Park to find out. Now, Cue Card had an absolute fairytale season last year - after a year or two in the wilderness he returned with top class performance after top class performance to follow up a Charie Hall with a Betfair Chase and then win with a King George and he was brilliant. This year, although his phenomenal constitution has led him to victory over Coneygree at Haydock and to an easy win in the Ascot Chase, it is fair to say he has been a little more hit and miss. He won at Ascot with ease and it was brilliant to see him see off the competition by 15 lengths but coming back to the paddock he was one tired horse. I trust connections when they say he is working the house down at home so I fully expect to have him right for the day but even if he is at his absolute peak I question whether he will be fully effective over the Gold Cup trip.



Rewind the tape back again on last years Gold Cup and you'll see that not far behind the leading group is O'Faolin's Boy who ultimately finishes 50+ lengths behind the eventual winner. Moreover, look at the speed at which Don Cossack finishes the race relative to Coneygree for example last year and it looks pretty quick. My theory on the race is that it was actually quite slowly run. Smad Place had made all in an excellent Hennessey win and Cotswold Chase and was the pacesetter for the race, but it seems clear to me by the way he faded at the end that this was not his running. What should have been a strong pace set by Smad was actually fairly pedestrian for a Gold Cup which turned the end of this race into one that suited a speedier horse like Don Cossack (and arguably Djakadam who has won over 2m4f) and allowed him to open up such a big gap between him and his rivals.



Also supporting that position is the finishing position of Don Poli some 10 lengths off Djakadam. Many commented on the ride of Davy Russell holding Don Poli out the back much like he did when winning on Lord Windermere - the expectation being that the pace would be faster than it actually was and that he would be able to pick up the pieces when the stamina of the leading three was called into question. As it happened they didn't go off that fast after all and he had way too much to do to get close to the eventual winner and second. Move forward three weeks and he is finishing 8 lengths ahead of Djakadam at Aintree on a galloping track (and 9 lengths behind Cue Card). Ergo, at a staying trip, Cue Card would want a slow pace to be at maximum effectiveness. He is a speed horse and he backed this up by winning at Ascot over 2m5f last time out... and by a Ryanair Chase win over 2m5f. In fact look at his win portfolio at trips 3m+ and they come at Kempton, Aintree, Haydock and Wetherby - flat galloping speed tracks.

A young Djakadam prepares for the JLT - can he finally go one better

in racings blue riband?

Djakadam


The other thing we can ascertain from this reading of last year's race is that Don Poli probably isn't as slow as he looks over a staying trip. That may sound like useless information as Don Poli isn't here. But Djakadam is and Don Poli is a fairly good horse to use to make a point about Djakadam -we'll come back to that in a minute.


Djakadam was not quick enough on the day last year to beat Don Cossack and he didn't outstay Coneygree on another day but he has been good enough twice around this course and distance to beat everything else so has to be considered as a serious contender. It is very possible that there isn't a horse of  Don Cossack or Coneygree's standard in this race in which case running to that same mark may very well be good enough to win.



Djakadam came into his first Gold Cup as a progressive 6 year old and was one of the few horses who could put up with Coneygree's relentless gallop on that day. The following season he progressed with a similar level of form until falling in the Cotswold Chase. Connections did a great job in bringing him back for the Festival where he was simply outclassed by Don Cossack. This year his preparation has been different. After winning the Theystes he headed to the Lexus over 3m and was beaten. In fact, you have to go back to January 2015 ) since Djakadam won a chase over 3 miles (whe receiving weight in a handicap). His form since then reads 22F2323.


Like Cue Card, we know that Djakadam can be quick - his form over trips less than 3 miles in comparison reads 11F11 (the falls in both form lines incidentally come at Cheltenham - which is a whole other objection that I'm not as concerned about as I think he's a much sounder jumper nowadays and they were both quite unlucky). You could draw the conclusion that Djakadam is also a speed horse whose natural talent gets him into the places in staying contests. But look back at his run behind Coneygree in what was an attritional race and that doesn't seem fair, but look back at his run behind Don Cossack and actually he gets comprehensively outstayed by a horse who had proven winning form over staying trips.


If I was a supporter of Djakadam for this race, I would argue that the quality of Gold Cup winner that Coneygree and Don Cossack were is not represented here and that may be correct; so Djakadam runs to the same level of form and he wins right?


Well, not exactly - Let's bring back the other Don; Don Poli. Including last years Gold Cup, the two have had 4 head-to-heads with the following results:

	Djakadam	Don Poli	Distance
Cheltenham	2nd	3rd	10l
Aintree	3rd	2nd	8l
Punchestown	2nd	3rd	2l
Leopardstown	3rd	2nd	head

So if we continue the theory that last year's race was slower than it looked on the first circuit and Davy Russell mistimed it on Don Poli then that seems to make sense.  You can make an excuse for Djakadam being tired the next time at Aintree and he made a jumping error early which upset his rhythm, but the two runs this season show the two horses to be by on large on a par when Don Poli is ridden prominently. Before being ruled out with a minor injury Don Poli was 20/1 for this.


The other thing to note is that neither horse one these races. They were won by Don Cossack (proven Grade 1 3m+ form), Cue Card (Proven Grade 1 3m+ form on a flat track), Carlingford Lough (All form in Graded chases 3m+) and Outlander, who we will come onto in a minute...In each of those four races Djakadam has either been held up or ridden behind the leaders. At no point in a staying chase has Djakadam been able to head the leader.


Conclusions - Either, Djakadam has been off peak form since last year's Gold Cup and will be produced perfectly on the day by Willie Mullins or at a quick pace set by a grade 1 level staying chaser the standard of Don Poli or higher Djakadam may struggle.


No matter how good a day Willie Mullins had on Thursday, I'm not willing to take 3/1 to find out which.


The caveat to that is that if Djakadam lines up in front and tries to effectively make all... but there are reasons to think that won't happen. One of which is....


Smad Place


Who we don't need to say much about, other than he is a beautiful grey and will most likely be in front to start with. I suspect he will be in front after the first circuit but he is on the downgrade nowadays. Hopefully he'll have a smooth jump round and enjoy himself, but he would be an unlikely winner.


The other of which is....

Bristol De Mai

Bristol De Mai


Who really is also a beautiful grey but is seen to best effect when ridden prominently. He is massively overpriced here but would definitely have wanted a little more rain and potentially a last minute change of venue to Haydock where all of his best form is. That was his first step up to 3m and it is fair to say he improved for it.


He did run well here last year in the JLT, though that form has since not worked out but he is not without an each way chance


Sizing John


Let's bring Don Poli back in again for a second - Don Poli who was only one and half lengths away from winning the Irish Gold Cup against Sizing John. Where Djakadam seemingly struggles to get his head in front in Grade 1 chases, Sizing John improved well from a held up position to come past Don Poli and Empire of Dirt and win.


Up to that point he was mostly well known for finishing second to Douvan umpteen times over much shorter distances. This step up in trip has seemingly suited him well and the fact he is still unexposed, but for my money the form of that race isn't to be taken too seriously. The fact that the pace was set mostly by Road to Riches who is Grand National bound (though a very good 3rd in the 2015 Gold Cup) and would usually be held up suggests it probably wasn't a particularly quick pace and to me it looked that Sizing John simply outpaced them using his credentials as a 2 miler at the end.


Irisih Gold Cup winners also have an abysmal record here mainly due to the proximity of the two races, which were a week closer than normal this year and he still has a lot to prove. He may well do so. But on evidence he is not the one.


The better Irish trial is the Lexus, won by...

Outlander

Outlander wins the Lexus

 Perhaps it is because the Irish Gold Cup is in more recent memory but no one seems to be talking up Outlander at all - not even Gordon Elliott.


Whilst with Willie Mullins this horse was very much campaigned at the middle distances (2m4f) usually to quite good effect with a series of placed efforts in high class races but he was always seen as stayer.


His first foray into staying chases came at Punchestown at the end of last year when he was a staying on second to Zabana. This came after a busy season and it looked as though Willie was ready to send him up in trip before his transfer to Gordon Elliott. His first 3 runs this season were much of a muchness over 2m4f, including a defeat to Djakadam in the John Durkan, but then when stepped up in trip again he was able to reverse the form to land the Lexus, giving him form statistics of 21 over 3m+ and both in Grade 1 chases. In fact his route to the Gold Cup is fairly similar to Djakadam's in 2015 coming via the JLT (in which he also fell) which to me says Willie Mullins always had this trip in mind.


He was given an entry in the Grand National before being withdrawn due to the row around UK handicap marks on Irish horses, but that tells me one thing, that he stays. Not only does he stay, he also has enough speed to get past horses at these staying trips - as we saw from him coming from deep in his Lexus win. The doubt about him may be Cheltenham form which reads 6F - but Don Cossacks form read F3 here before his Gold Cup win and the extra distance gives Outlander much more time to organise himself and get into a rhythm. His form around other undulating courses is generally fine, so I think at this pace it will not be a problem.


If they go hard from the front and the horses with stamina question marks fade then he could easily pick through the pack and be victorious here.


But I don't think they will all fade. And the reason I don't is because of a staying superstar:

If I could own any horse in training it would be Native River -

what a beauty

Native River


Cue Card and Sizing John have speed, Outlander stays and Djakadam brings guts. They are all contenders and all bring weapons to this battle, but Native River brings an arsenal. It is fair to say that in the Native River fanclub I am vying for chairman so feel free to skip to the next paragraph whilst I declare in no uncertain terms how much I like this horse.



After being narrowly beaten in the four miler by Minella Rocco last year this horse has improved no end. He went on to win at Aintree (a speed track), beating RSA winner Blaklion and dual Ultima win Un Temps Pour Tout in doing so, before following up with a Hennessey win and Welsh National win off of 155 before returning to Newbury to win again, showing on that day that he has speed as well as stamina as he drew away from Le Mercury after the last.


Whilst acknowledging the obvious improvement of the horse many have pointed to the four miler as evidence that he doesn't perform as well at this track - but look back on the race and you see he makes a mistake at the 13th fence and effectively throws away his chance there. With all respect to Mr Legg, Richard Johnson is a completely different proposition and under his guidance (and Aiden Colemans at Newbury the second time) he has jumped absolutely impeccably from the front. The key to this horses progression is allowing him to control the tempo and stride on; using his deadly jumping, turn of foot and endless stamina to grind out races. It is worth pausing to mention Minella Rocco who will now be ridden by big race winning machine Noel Fehily - He is another horse who has improved this season and though he's dispatched of his rider the last two runs I expect a return to Cheltenham could produce a big run in him.



Now it may be the case that Native River doesn't lead and that Smad Place makes the running again. This is what happened in the Hennessey but as soon as Dickie Johnson felt his horse was going better he was able to take it up and lead from the front. Whatever the way the race is run it can be done to suit Native River's tempo and once it is I can't see anything getting passed him. The Denman Chase is a great trial for the Gold Cup having been the stepping stone most recently for Coneygree (and obviously for Denman) and this horse is very much in the same mould as his namesake (although not quite as good). Interestingly Cue Card takes the same route as Kauto Star did when winning his first Gold Cup via the Ascot Chase. It would be a stretch to say that either stablemate are as talented as those two were but it's very much the same dynamic and to my mind that front-running galloping Denman performance of 2008 is exactly what Native River is primed to deliver here. Nothing could live with him on that day, even Kauto Star one of the greatest of all time, and if Native River is allowed to get into his stride in front then he will simply not stop.


If we look at Native River's profile over 3m+ it reads 113321-111. This tells us that a) he is an out and out stayer and b) he is likely progressive (He is still only a 7 year old). The 2nd place came at Cheltenham last year and the other two defeats came on speed tracks against speed horses. The first of which he made novicey jumping errors, the second of which he was beaten by RSA winner Blaklion and Southfield Royale, both of whom he later reversed form with at Aintree and Cheltenham respectively (and later at Newbury again).


Although that form has a lot of 1's in it, including a grade 1 and two Grade 3s we can pick holes in it. It's fair to say the horses he has beaten (albeit when giving away quite a bit of weight) would not be up to this class. It is a fair objection and to me based on that a horse like Outlander is probably the biggest threat. The two are pretty much matched on ratings but I think that this unique test - and it is still unique, suits the front running stayer. The lead will not be easily gained which I think sets the race up more for the stamina types - with Richard Johnson able to push on if he needs to on Native River. The little worry is stable form - Colin Tizzard has had a quiet week with the only real high being Fox Norton's run in the Champion Chase. If Native River fails to fire on the day then Outlander to me is most likely to pick up the pieces.


The Outsiders


The first thing to say is that the market is wrong - the leading three should be a lot closer to the others and as a result there are some very good each way prices at 12/1 or bigger, when really this should be 6/1 the field.



Champagne West


The top of the wild cards on this seasons form is probably Champagne West. His form over 3m+ reads 4F1. He is another horse who will likely go from the front but his wins have come against slower staying national types. I think he has a big job on his hands if trying to stay there in grade 1 company.


More of That



More of That was an exceptional horse and famously is the only horse to down the colours of Annie Power when she has stood up. His chasing career hasn't gone quite to plan but he looked to be showing some sparkle when running well in the Irish Gold Cup. He has place claims on that evidence but is priced pretty short now.



Minella Rocco


The forgotten horse in many ways - Beat Native River under a fantastic ride from Derek O'Connor in last years 4-mile novice chase. Hasn't progressed in the same way but was a good third here in November. Will suit a staying test and could be a dark horse.


Tea For Two



Tea for Two is better around Kempton and although officially he got fairly close to Cue Card on winning distances, in reality is not up to that same level of form. Others preferred.


Irish Cavalier

Ran on well last year to finish 4th but isn't likely to be much closer today.


Saphir Du Rheu


Even Paul Nicholls would be surprised if he won, but stranger things have happened.


In conclusion, I think the most likely winner of the Gold Cup is Native River. There are three proven frontrunners who should set a strong gallop and of all of the horses I think he has the better balance of speed and stamina to pass them and see out the trip. He has shown more progression than Minella Rocco since they last met and with the Champion jockey on board should be able to dictate the tempo in his own way.


Ruby Walsh came alive on Thursday but if he wants to win this I think he needs to get Djakadam in front as early as possible and try to kick on. Both he and Outlander will likely be in behind Native River to begin with and will ask the question of his grade 1 credentials. If they do manage to pass him then they will have to stay there too as this horse has shown he is all grit when headed.


I think Cue Card's chance lies mainly in the hands of others and he would be relying on a slow pace, quicker finish to get home, otherwise I don't see him getting up the hill.

4:10 - Foxhunters Chase - 3m2f

On the Fringe bids for the treble treble

On The Fringe bids for a treble treble - Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown. Arguably this tends to be where he is at his weakest of the three. Usually he comes into this after a poor prep run but this year looked in superb spirits last time out when just touched off by Foxrock. He is short, but you wouldn't be surprised if he did it.



He will have stiff competition though in newcomer to the Foxhunter's scene Wonderful Charm. He has a reasonable course record having finished in midfield in a Ryanair and World Hurdle but showed his best form when stepped up in trip in December 2015. He was off the track most of last season but seems to now have bounced back with a good couple of wins. He will like the good ground and is a big threat to the favourite. Ask the Weatherman in contrast will have been hoping for a bit more rain and the good ground is likely to dent his chances.



Salsify is a past winner of this in 2013 but his best days are likely to be behind him. Pacha Du Polder ran really well under a surprisingly good ride from Victoria Pendleton last year and may be a good one to hit the frame.



The one from Leftfield though is Anseanachai Cliste who comes from the Irish point-to-point scene with a legion of followers and is an unknown quantity.

4:50 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle, 2m4f

Nothing has spoken more about Martin Pipe's skill as a trainer this week than the performance of his one time protégée Gordon Elliot (except maybe the good performances of his son David). Gordon runs Automated and Runfordave in a race he would sorely love to win.


I don't have any massive opinions on this race but it would be nice to see Gordon bag another winner.


Lizzie Kelly is a good ride for Coo Star Sivola and Harry Cobden is an obvious good jockey for Dadsintrouble. Rather Be also catches the eye under Charlie Deustch.

5:30 - The Grand Annual Chase - 2m

Traditionally a race that enables the bookies to make some of their money back - Paul Nicholls won this last year with Solar Impulse who interestingly runs again in different colours and under a new trainer but I'd pick Le Prezien to win it for him this year. He was kept back from taking on Altior in the Arkle and could be of a good mark coming into this as a novice. It will be intriguing to see how his other runner and former champion chaser Dodging Bullets fares. Now way down in the weights he has to stand a chance if showing any of his old sparkle.


Dandridge has been tipped by every man and his dog so will probably finish a staying on 7th. Un Beau Roman could be well set up for this based on previous course form, but I'd slightly prefer Pairofbrowneyes despite a 4lb rise.

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival Preview Day 3

Willoughby Court out-jumps Neon Wolf to land the Neptune

Day 2 started with a bang for followers of the Shrew as Willoughby Court (who went off at 14's) put in a superb front-running performance and was all grit when seeing off favourite Neon Wolf up the run in. A little bit of redemption for jockey David Bass after his departure on Charbel on Tuesday. He will be a very good horse over fences next year and I imagine Neon Wolf will continue his progression wherever connections send him (Champion Hurdle?)

Nico keeps the partnership intact before an epic finish on Might Bite

And the good times continued for the Shrew as Might Bite simultaneously proved his doubters wrong and right in one of the best horse races you will see. Handy throughout, Acapella Bourgeois was able to go with him for a fair way but got outpaced on the second circuit. He was a good 15 lengths clear coming into the home straight almost in the style of Denman's Gold Cup. Clear at the last, he did his very best to repeat his Kempton feat by falling at the last and it was to Nico De Boinville's credit that he got his legs up over it. But the fun was only just beginning as he started to weave all over the straight coming up the hill and if it wasn't for the loose horse running alongside him may have run off into the crowd. All the while Davy Russell pushed Whisper closer and closer until he headed the favourite only for Might Bite to show how game he is by pushing his way back in front to win it in a photo. It was the race of the meeting so far and Might Bite follows Labaik and Tiger Roll's wins yesterday in what is clearly the year of the quirk-bag at Cheltenham.I am delighted for a really characterful horse and mean it in the best possible way when I say I never want to see him at Cheltenham again. Whisper completed another 1-2 for Nicky Henderson who is on fire and has jumped himself into contention to defeat Paul Nicholls in the trainers championship.

Last year's supreme form was to the fore in the Coral Cup, but it wasn't the favourite who obliged, but Supersundae who managed to get a clear run through from a prominent positions. Shrewdie each way backers were rewarded again with Taquin Du Seuil coming in 2nd at 20/1 each way. Peregrine Run was unlucky when being bumped into just before three out and losing his place before the bend. The Tin Soldier never really had a chance from being way too far off the pace but finished like a good horse to eventually come 8th.

Special Tiara wondering what happened to Douvan?

And perhaps Ruby Walsh was just making sure nothing happened before his big ride on Douvan. As it happened he shouldn't have bothered. As expected, Special Tiara went off in front with Douvan comfortably settled in behind. But from an early stage Douvan was in trouble at his fences, taking off too early or getting in too close. When you look back at his previous runs he always seems to step over his fences and the height of them at Cheltenham along with championship level pace meant that he just was never jumping. He was in trouble long before they came down the hill and by that time Special Tiara was away and gone from the front. The others who were likely ridden to pick up places never came back to him. On a side note, Willie Mullins record with second season chasers is abysmal here and probably worth taking on in future in this sort of race. I imagine Douvan potentially pulled something with one of those jumps and hope to see him back fighting fit again soon.

But all credit to the winner because what a superb horse he has been. From his exuberant round of jumping at Kempton a few years back, to setting up a great win by Sprinter Sacre (just goes to show how good he was) last year he is all pace and it's great to see a horse like him have his name down as a champion chaser. Anyway - based on this weeks evidence Altior wins the Champion Chase next year and easily too if his 9 length demolition of Fox Norton is anything to go by. A sensational result for Special Tiara and what a week it has been for Noel Feihly who completes a big race double with Unowhatimeanharry still to come today in the Stayers Hurdle. Jock him up in the Gold Cup too I say!

I love the Cross Country; it always makes a brilliant watch even though I have no idea where they are on the course. You'd have been forgiven for thinking we were on for a big 1-2 at one point as Any Currency and Ballybroker Bridge took them along. But their age gave way in the end as the JP McManus trio loomed. Eventually it was Cause of Causes proving the schooling trips over here were well worth it to land a 1-2 or Gordon Elliott with Bless The Wings splitting him from the other two McManus horses. It is a third festival victory for the horse with course magician Jamie Codd.

Divin Bere was a neck away from making it a great day for Shrewdies when going down to Flying Tiger in the Fred Winter. Nietzsche showed that he is just a shade away from Ubermensch status in third. The Bumper looked sewn up by Debuchet who was clear going into the straight when she was swept up by the fast finishing Fayonagh who gave Gordon Elliott and Jamie Codd a double on the day. The man is unstoppable. Western Ryder was a good staying on 5th.

***

Super Stayer Unowhatimeanharry bids for gold in the big race

Day 3 sees the Stayers Hurdle take centre stage; a race that produced the performance of the festival last year from Thistlecrack. He isn't here this time around but there is an interesting contender in the sae colours - a half brother West Approach - who comes here as a novice. But he will have to go some to beat the hot favourite Unowhatimeanharry who has been a Whistling Shrew favourite since landing the Albert Bartlett last year. He isn't as brilliant as Thistlecrack but he has been ultra consistent winning every staying contest going this term and is the one to beat. He will face a few different rivals to his races to date though, notably 2014 Champion Hurdle winner Jezki who runs in the same gold and green silks of JP McManus and will be up to giving the favourite a run for his money.

But this could be the day when things finally go right for Willie Mullins. Un De Sceaux heads the field in the other feature race, the Ryanair. Michael O'Leary has never won his own race but has a top chance with festival handicap winner Empire of Dirt. Both will have to race past a returning champion Uxizandre who shaped nicely on return from injury last time out. In the novice equivalent of the Ryanair, the JLT, Yorkhill returns to take his festival tally to 2/2 and could kick start a good day for Willie Mullins with Let's Dance a red hot favourite to take the Mares Novice later in the day.

If you can pick the three winners of the handicaps then it's probably a good day to play the lottery. But the big story would be if Tobefair can extend what has been an incredible record of 7 straight wins that have seen him raise over 50lbs in the handicap and win the Pertemps for Debra Hamer with her first ever festival runner.

Enjoy and most importantly,

Stay Shrewd...

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 - Top Notch 10/3 or Flying Angel 14/1 e/w

2:10 - Impulsive Star 10/1, Forgoodmeasure 10/1 or Barney Dwan 20/1 e/w

2:50 - Un De Sceaux 9/4 - Un De Sceaux/ Empire of Dirt forecast.

3:30 - Unowhatimeanharry 5/4 (Festival Nap),
          Cole Harden 8/1 or Ballyoptic 16/1 e/w

4:10 - Pinkie Brown 66/1  e/w or Starchitect 8/1 e/w

4:50 - Let's Dance 11/8 (nap)

5:30 - Dr Harper 14/1 or Southfield Theatre 7/1

We did it last year with Vautor and Thistlecrack so why not try it again, the big Thursday double - Un De Sceaux and Unowhatimeanharry at around 6/1.. or throw in Let's Dance as well for a treble. And if you decide you like Yorkhill in the first why not make it a lucky 15!

Disclaimer: Neither Un De Sceaux or Unowhatimeanharry are as good as Vautour or Thistlecrack, but both stand good prices of winning their races at respective prices. ;)

Race-by-race Guide

1:30 - JLT Novice Chase, 2m4f

Lovable lunatic Yorkhill was an exceptional winner of the Neptune last year. I put up Yanworth to beat him on that day and later on walked past a road called 'York Hill'. If I am going to ignore omens like that then I deserve to lose and will make a point of taking the scenic route if I need to go to the shops this morning.

Yorkhill beats Yanworth easily in the Neptune

On hurdles form Yorkhill would be a good thing against these and he would've been favourite if switched to the champion hurdle, however, his efforts over fences still require a bit of imagination to see him being a comfortable winner here. Moreover, Yanworth did nothing to frank the form of his Neptune win on Tuesday. He jumps fine but still pulls very hard and where I'd trust Ruby Walsh to give him the right ride he is simply too short based on the fact he is top rated by only a pound. Also, he clearly has monkey DNA somewhere in him and can be a tad unpredictable as evidenced when trying to drag Ruby Walsh onto the hurdles course in a recent schooling session.That isn't to say he won't win and he may win well, just that on current evidence he doesn't deserve to be the price he is.

The question is what to oppose him with?

The answer could be Disko who has looked really good this year and already has winning form at the top table. Noel Meade's festival record though is abysmal, I'm not sure why but its something that's hard to ignore. I also have doubts as to whether he'll be quick enough having only beaten Our Duke - who is as boat-like as they come - last time out.

Flying Angel was a really good winner of the Kingmakers novice hurdle last year and comes into this with good Cheltenham form when 2nd in the Martin Pipe last year. That wouldn't stack up with Yorkhills Neptune form but I think he is a much better chaser than he was hurdler while the favourite has been on par if not regressive on his two starts to date. That isn't to say he doesn't have a lot more in the locker but given the respective prices one can speculate.

Top Notch on his way to victory at Sandown

Top Notch has Cheltenham form and has recorded his best RPRs here each season but more importantly he's now worked out how to win and looked really good when landing the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown in February. He is a really small horse but if he can get round the Sandown fences then he stands a good chance here too.

Politologue is the only other horse who would stand a chance on ratings. He is undoubtedly very good but was a miserable 20th of 26th in the Coral Cup last year and unseated on his only other start at Cheltenham so it's hard to be overly enthusiastic. This is of course an altogether different test  and like Top Notch he is a much better chaser than hurdler but all his form is flat galloping track form so hard to make a case for.

So at the prices it's Top Notch, with the expectation in the back of my head that Yorkhill will probably outsmart me again.

2:10 - Pertemps Network Final Hurdle, 3m

Tobefair - the gift that just keeps on giving

The big story of this race would be if Tobefair can notch up an 8th successive win on a journey that has seen him rise about four and a half stone in ratings. This is trainer Debra Hamer's first runner at the festival. His owners, I believe, are a group of pub regulars who surely can't believe their luck to have gotten their horse here let alone having one with a live chance. And the thing is he is still unexposed. I wouldn't say 5/1 represents any sort of value but I wouldn't put anyone off the fairytale gamble being landed.

Leaving sentimentality aside, Barney Dwan was a horse travelling really well upsides Tobefair a few starts back and is now 12lbs better off with the favourite. But the horse that beat him last time out could well be the one to side with. Impulsive Star has only one blip on his CV and although it was at Cheltenham it was in a much classier race that this when finishing behind Albert Bartlett fancy Wholestone.

Forgoodmeasure looks a nice sort and has been running well around Cheltenham with two placed efforts in his last three runs. That course experience could prove valuable and he is off a good mark. He is the mount of champion jockey Richard Johnson who would have had the choice of  2013 winner Fingal Bay return as an 11 year old - It's great to see him here but I don't think he has any chance of recapturing his crown but will hopefully have a good spin round.

Gordon Elliott runs Jury Duty who looks like the big hope for Ireland along with Willie Mullins Isleofhopeanddreams. The Irish broke a long standing run of home wins in this when Mall Dini won it last year. If they are well handicapped then I can see them both running well alongside Presenting Percy.

2:50 - Ryanair Chase, 2m5f

Probably the biggest Mullins vs Gigginstown clash of the week as previous Arkle winner  Un De Sceaux takes on festival handicap winner Empire of Dirt. Tony McCoy's last Cheltenham winner Uxizandre makes up the top three in the betting, but we'll come to him later.

Un De Sceaux has made his name in 2m chases and only found Sprinter Sacre too good last season, which is no great shame. Many would argue 2m is still his best trip but the presence of stablemate Douvan has lead to him being here instead. He is top rated by 5lbs, so why is the betting so tight? Many will remember his keen frontrunning style that potentially cost him last years Queen Mother and lead to some silly jumping errors in his novice days and on that logic draw the conclusion that he can't maintain the same form over 2m5f - especially at Cheltenham.

"The one from Sceaux" winning his Arkle against God's Own

However, I think his run last time out here over 2m1f showed that we are dealing with a completely different horse. He settled beautifully behind Uxizandre and stayed every yard, with only one small jumping error on the way round. If Uxizandre bids to win this race in a similar way to his 2015 win by going from the front, he can tuck in behind him - if not he can make the pace. He is a solid grade 1 performer and moreover, the fact is that he just wins races. He showed he can stay 2m5f in a hurdle race in Auteuil and although this is a completely different bag with Ruby dictating the pace he will get the trip. He is 7 from 11 over fences, with two falls in his early career and 2 defeats to Sprinter Sacre. It is just better form and I think he should really be evens here. Douvan's defeat leaves the Mullins team in need of a pick me up and I think this could be it.

Empire of Dirt will definitely stay the trip based on his win in last years festival and a run behind Sizing John in the Irish Gold Cup but he is priced as if he is a fast improving young horse rather than a horse making late progress through handicaps. I will tear the Irish Gold Cup form to shreds tomorrow but needless to say I don't think it says much as they crawled along for the first mile or so relative to the pace that Ruby Walsh would set on Un De Sceaux here. He is a good horse, but he is a handicapper. To me, only Un De Sceaux and Uxizandre are the two graded level horses here and one is vastly superior. Uxizandre also has the added difficulty to overcome of bouncing after his first run back after injury so may be vulnerable for second place.

This all said, you do have to worry about stable-form and if Un De Sceaux does get beaten by Empire of Dirt we may just have to accept that Elliott is flying and it's really not Willie Mullins year.

The others aren't particularly worth mentioning, unless Uxizandre bounces in which case something at a big price might hit the frame. Alary has been a much talked about and expensive French import who may not yet have shown his true colours and Sub Lieutenant is a consistent performer who I'd expect to give a good account of himself.

3:30 - Stayer's Hurdle, 3m

Unowhatimeanharry en route to Albert Bartlett success

My short priced nap of the week is Unowhatimeanharry. He was a shrewdie in last year's Albert Bartlett at 11/1 (I think) and I've been backing him ever since. He has been the best staying hurdler this year and has won every trial and they still haven't gotten to the bottom of him. I think 5/4 represents good value but he will need to prove he's still on the top of his game against some stiff opposition.

2015 winner Cole Harden ran very well against Harry last time out and showed he may be returning to best form. He will definitely come good for the ground and will go from the front to act as a target. I think this could serve him well in finishing in the places but I fully expect Unowhatimeanharry to pass him. I don't think his stayers hurdle was up to the same class as what I expect the favourite to produce today but I would not put anyone off thinking he'll come second.

The majority of this field have been beaten by Unowhatimeanharry already this year and some more than once. West Approach has run well as a novice and will represent the Thistlecrack colours here. I'd say he was probably flattered by his run last time out when picking up the pieces behind a quick pace from Cole Harden and others would be preferred. Purely at the prices Ballyoptic is overpriced but has been beaten well by Unowhatimeanharry when they've met this season. He is probably a decent each way prospect though.

The unknown quantities in the race are Jezki and Nichols Canyon both who have spent most of their Shaneshill who has an impeccable Cheltenham record and had the beating of Snow Falcon last time out - another horse to be beaten by Unowhatimeanharry. I can see Shaneshill hitting the frame.

Jezki winning the champion hurdle

careers running over 2m. Nichols Canyon is undoubtedly a top class performer and I think the step up to 3m will suit him, but, I have my doubts about whether we will see the same Nichols Canyon we have done in other years. He has been campaigned hard for the last 2 seasons including a trip to America and looked a little agitated even before his last race had begun. I'm surprised Ruby Walsh has opted for him over stablemate

Anyway, Jezki has had two nice prep runs this year when returning from injury and has previously run well over longer distances. I want to believe he's trained on to be good enough to be championship class again but as of yet I haven't seen the evidence - Good ground and a long trip at produce it but he's currently priced on reputation rather than proven ability.

4:10 - Brown Advisory Handicap Chase, 2m5f

More of a lottery than the grand national - you'd be better off just closing your eyes, sticking a pin into the paper and backing that one. We may as well choose one at a big price.

Diamond King looks likely to go off favourite after his win here last year but I don't think he's half as good over fences as he is hurdles. Given the form of Gordon Elliott though it wouldn't be the most unlikely thing to happen.

40/1 is a nice price and that's what price Pinkie Brown is. I wrote earlier in the week about the shrewdness of Neil Mulholland so we may as well take a chance at a big price.

Starchitect for the Pipe team looks a safer bet if playing the placepot and Bouvreuil is another one with obvious appeal.

4:50 - Mares Novice Hurdle, 2m1f

Let's Dance would likely have gone well against the geldings but she turns up here on the basis that she will win a £50,000 bonus for stable staff if successful in any Cheltenham race and she'll probably do it. I don't see much point in making it any more complicated than that.

Let's Dance bids to give Mullins/Ricci/Walsh a perfect 2/2 in this race

Her biggest competitor will likely be from her own stable in the form of Airlie Beach - she has also been brilliant this year against the geldings. She has a great story behind her having given birth to a foal at the tender age of 4 - The Mullins team had put what they thought was a gelding out to grass with her only to find that he was very much not a gelding... Since returning to the track though she's knocked up a series of wins and is probably overpriced at 3/1 although the vibes are very much that Let's Dance is the superior of the two.

Of the others, La Bague Au Roi has been a big talking horse and will likely run well. Whether she is up to this standard though is doubtful. Forge Meadow is a much more likely threat based on her run behind Shattered Love to runs ago.  

5:30 - Kim Muir Handicap Chase, 3m2f

Again, like the 4m chase earlier in the week Jockey bookings are important. Squouateur was a massive gamble last year in the Martin Pipe where he did reasonably well to stay on 7th. He's in this off a ark lower than he was over hurdles so could easily be a big plot horse here for Gordon Elliott. Jamie Codd riding will put nobody off.

Mall Dini was a good winner of the Pertemps last year but has not looked as good over fences.

Dr Harper was backed into 4/1 favourite for this last year and is now 14/1- we saw on Tuesday that David Pipe can prepare one for a handicap so it might be worth giving him another shot.

Southfield Royale in contrast ran well in last years four miler coming 4th behind Minella Rocco and Native River. He has been off the boil since but is an al out stayer and could make the most of a low mark.

A mention has to go to the legendary Alvarado who has been placed in 2 grand nationals with a signature late run. I think he is probably on the decline now but he goes well here and is not without a shout.