The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival Preview Day 1

It's here. 4 days of the best national hunt racing anywhere in the world. Day 1 is always my favourite day with four grade ones and the best chasing handicap of the week in the Ultima. From the moment the tape goes up in the Supreme it is non-stop quality action.

The feature race is the Champion Hurdle. With it's two previous winners in Annie Power and

The New One would be a massively popular (if not

unexpected) winner of the Champion Hurdle on his 4th attempt

Faugheen out through injury this years renewal should be fascinating with the runners much closer to one another on official ratings. At the head of the market two JP McManus horses have good chances in Yanworth and Bueveur D'Air. The former has only been beaten once (in last years Neptune) and although not flashy has ground out three wins this term in key trials. Those wins included a 4 length beating of The New One in the Christmas Hurdle who returns for a 4th crack at this and under new front running tactics may be surprisingly hard to pass coming up the hill. I cannot think of a more popular winner.

In a move that speaks volumes of the lack of a true star in this years race Buveur D'Air switches back from fences to take his chance here, but his trainer is three-handed with progressive handicapper Brain Power and old favourite My Tent or Yours also lining up. The story of the race for me however would undoubtedly be if the novice and 2015 Champion Bumper winner Moon Racer can win this - the decision being made late on to opt for this rather than the Supreme - I love this horse but am devastated he goes here instead of the novice alternative, but none of that will matter if he somehow manages to cross the line first.

To do so he must also face a strong Irish challenge  Willie Mullins has nowhere near the strength that he has had in previous years but runs Triumph 3rd Footpad and the highly enigmatic Wicklow Brave (County Hurdle and Irish Leger winner!). Ireland's best chance, on odds at least, is Petit Mouchoir who seems to have come on leaps and bounds for the transfer to Gordon Elliott but there is a big question mark around whether this is his course.

Altior wins the Supreme and will be a star name on day 1 again

If you squint a little you can also see Buveur D'Air chasing him up the

hill in 3rd...

For all the excitement and unanswered questions of the big race however, the days star attraction is surely long odds-on Arkle favourite Altior. He was imperious when winning last years Supreme and would have won this year's Champion Hurdle if not being switched to the larger obstacles. He has been superb so far and as such comes into todays race with a rating higher than both Sprinter Sacre and Douvan at the same points in their respective careers - he will surely be a joy to behold.

It is doubtful we will see a horse as good as Altior in this year's Supreme which seems like a complete puzzle.Moon Racer, Movewiththetimes and Neon Wolf are either injured or preferring other targets and Willie Mullins runs Melon, a fruity favourite who has only ever run once in a maiden. It could throw up a weird result but is sure to set the meeting up as perfectly as always.

The mares hurdle has felt like something of a formality in the last decade with Mullins horses dominating. But this year it is fiercely competitive with both Limini (Mares Novice winner) and Vroum Vroum Mag (2016 mares winner) set to take eachother on. Controversially Ruby Walsh opts for the younger filly in Limini who beat the third big contender, Apple's Jade, last time out. Apple's Jade was of course one of the stars among the 60 horses moved from Willie Mullin's yard by Ryanair owners, the O'Leary's at the start of the year to the benefit of Irish champion trainer elect Gordon Elliott. She comes into her own on better spring ground and it will be a fascinating race between Mullins and his former owners.

Outside of the championship races the Ultima looks like one of the best handicaps of the year and will be fascinating as will the ever competitive novice handicap that closes the card. At 16:50 it will be amateur jockey's to the fore in the 4 mile novice chase named this year touchingly after JT McNamara who tragically lost his life last year after a long standing disability resulting from a fall at the 2013 festival. He was long associated with the colours of JP McManus who sends the top rated Edwulf, under the stewardship of Joseph O'Brien, to claim what I'm sure would be an emotional victory here.

So, plenty to enjoy but most importantly gamble significantly (and responsibly) and...

Stay Shrewd.

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 - Ballyandy 4/1 or Elgin 25/1 e/w

2:10 - Altior (no bet) - If you do not have a Paddy Power account then you can open with a special offer on an Altior (1/4 today) and Douvan (2/7 tomorrow) double to win at 10/1 paid as free bets up to a maximum stake of £10 - which seems like a good offer to me.

2:50 - Singlefarmpayment 10/1 (nap) or A Good Skin 28/1 e/w

3:30 - The Champion Hurdle - Yanworth 3/1 

4:10 - Apples Jade 4/1 - Maybe a good race to play trifectas with Apples Jade, Vroum Vroum Mag and Limini who are well clear of the rest on ratings.

4:50 - Edwulf 11/2 or Beware the Bear 8/1 e/w

5:30 - Gold Present 10/1 e/w and/or Mixboy 16/1 e/w

Or if you feel like a random one: David Pipe trained/Professor Caroline Tisdall & Bryan Dew owned treble of 2:50 Un Temps Pour Tout, 3:30 Moon Racer and 4:50 Champers on Ice which pays something like 1200/1

Race-by-Race Guide

1:30 - Supreme Novice Hurdle, 2m

A race in which legends are born looks massively competitive this year. In the weeks leading up to

What kind of name is Melon for a race horse? And more importantly

does he care?

the festival it has looked like nobody has actually wanted to win it. Willie Mullins has a superb record having saddled Douvan, Vautour and Champagne Fever (with Min a good second to Altior) to victory in the last few years so it is no surprise he has the favourite again in the form of Melon who is the choice of Ruby Walsh. He has been the talking horse all season and did nothing to disappoint when scoring in his maiden hurdle and is a winner on the flat in France. But so far that is all he has done. He may be the next messiah but as it stands I just can't take 11/4 on him for this race.

But if he isn't quite as good as Willie Mullins seems to think, then what will beat him?

Well, Mullins has three others himself. Cilaos Emery doesn't seem to have much chance and Crack Mome is yet to show he has the potential to win this. The challenger of interest is very much Bunk of Early who was a good second to Barcadys last time out. His two runs over hurdles so far in his career put him in good stead for this test and he can't be too far behind Melon on home work if the market is anything to go by. My one concern is that he was headed in the closing stages by a horse that is likely going for the Neptune. The Supreme and Neptune are weird races in that the Supreme, the shorter of the two, tends to have an emphasis on stamina and the Neptune has the emphasis on speed - the fact that Barcadys beat him to me leaves a big question mark and is perhaps the reason Ruby chooses to ride Melon.

The winners of all of the traditional UK trials bar one don't take part here; either preferring other targets or being out injured. From those trials that only really leaves Ballyandy who ground out a good victory in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and has form tied into Champion Hurdle bound Moon Racer. In his favour he would have a nice running style for this being held up just off the pace with stamina to get home - he has shown good form at Cheltenham previously and we know he'll handle the stiff turns and undulations. Perhaps I am being too greedy after the string of brilliant winners in recent years, but it feels like there is probably value elsewhere too.

Ballyandy grinds out a tough win in the Betfair

Another horse who has run well from just off the pace is River Wylde. On bare form he doesn't have much to find with Ballyandy but his win last time out was at Kempton which is a completely different test to this, being a flat right-handed galloping course. This will be an entirely new test and he'll have to overcome that as well as the form gap.

Henderson's other runner is interesting - Beyond Conceit is an 8 year old Galelio gelding and is two from two after a comprehensive win at Newbury before scraping home over 2m4f at Ascot. That stamina will serve him well here. He has a fair bit to find against those ahead of him in the betting but is definitely a good place shout. As is High Bridge who has done everything asked of him in winning his three hurdle starts this season. He is likely to be up with the pace and just might stay there if setting the right fractions from the front.

Elgin has been second behind some top quality opponents in Neon Wolf and River Wylde so may be

The real Melon who is admittedly a nice looking horse

one at a good price to hit the frame.

Labaik is the new Mad Moose and he's great. He's refused to race twice in his last three runs and gave the field a massive head start last time out and hence comes here at a massive price. You may lose your money at the start line but if the atmosphere and buzz of Cheltenham can get him excited enough to start the race then who knows hat he'd achieve?.

2:10 - Arkle Novice Chase, 2m

Altior wins. And I hope he does so impressively. For those who take a sado-masochistic view of their bank accounts or want to bet without the favourite... Charbel will make into a good horse, but I think his price reflects who he has been running behind rather than the bare form. He hasn't run yet in 2017 and will go from the front in a bid to get the favourite beat. I think he may pay the price if trying to stop Altior getting passed him and may set up the places for something staying on from the back. Royal Caviar would probably have beaten Some Plan if not for falling last time out and is probably the best of the Irish chances here, however Forest Bihan has done well coming off the pace in winning three of his last four. He is a younger horse and therefore probably the more open to progression. He'd be my tentative selection for second place.

2:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase, 3m1f

Un Temps Pour Tout en route to victory over Holywell last year

This is a red hot renewal and looks like one of the best handicaps of the year. Last years 1-2 line up again in Un Temps Pour Tout and Holywell. The winner has only been seen once over fences when running below par in the Hennessey and as such comes in only 4lbs higher than last year. Holywell has run reassuringly terribly for a horse trained by Jonjo O'Neill. You will need no reminding he was 4th in Coneygree's Gold Cup so is a serious animal if we assume that his form this year is just one of those things that happens to Jonjo horses in big handicaps rather than a natural decline in ability. He also won this three years ago but does need good in the going description to be fully effective. I'd be willing to risk a few pound there. Jonjo O'Neill also runs Go Conquer who is interesting only really because he is trained by Jonjo. He has shown decent form in 3m handicaps and comes in on a nice weight. Otago Trail is a good horse probably slightly unfairly treated on his run behind Native River in the Welsh National.

The 2015 winner, The Druid's Nephew, also takes his place again for another shrewd trainer in Neil Muholland (who has an 18% strike rate in British handicaps) who also saddles last year's 3rd The Young Master. For me The Druids Nephew has never shown the same level of spark since slithering on landing in the 2015 Grand National, but the Young Master could easily run a big race off of 3lbs lower this year and will appreciate the drying ground. Again, his form this season has been too bad even to be a plot and his Sandown win at the end of last season may have taken a fair bit out of him. Others are preferred. The more interesting Mulholland runner may be Pilgrims Bay who clocked up some good form in beating Theatre Guide last time out.

In general, I would be looking for a novice towards the bottom of the weights in this and I really like Singlefarmpayment who is one of two runners for Tom George who also runs A Good Skin. His horses love the spring ground and will be fully wound up for this and the trainer is running at an impressive 21% strike rate this season. Singlefarmpayment would be a contender in the RSA later in the week were he to line up there based on the way he was travelling at Cheltenham last time before being brought down. He hasn't run at the festival before which is a slight negative but has won on his other two runs at the track. He seems better treated than Alan King's Label Des Obeaux whom he beat here in December but it would be fair to say the latter has improved since then and could be a threat.

A Good Skin was second in last year's Kim Muir so ticks the Cheltenham form box. As a third season chaser he is more exposed than some towards the bottom of the weights but nonetheless comes into it off of a good mark and at a big price. Paul Nicholls has never won this race but has a live chance with Martin Pipe winner Ibis Du Rheu who also has a nice profile for this but for my money isn't as well off at the weights as Singlefarmpayment. The big Irish challenge comes from Gordon Elliott who runs Noble Endeavour. This horse was massively impressive when winning beating The Crafty Butcher at Leopardstown in December. He was second in the Martin Pipe two years ago but comes into this off of a big weight. He could be a really classy horse but I'm prepared to leave him at the price.

3:30 - FEATURE RACE: Champion Hurdle, 2m

The Champion Hurdle.

Petit Mouchoir is probably a good place to start, as he will more than likely be the first one to show in this race. Front running tactics have been deployed pretty well in the past year and I imagine it will be Bryan Cooper's plan to control the pace from the front. This has certainly worked in both recent outings at Leopardstown and for my money he was shaping like the winner in the Fighting Fifth too before falling. He is a horse who has improved in spades this year and that is proper grade 1 form in a race largely devoid of it.

Footpad is the choice of Ruby Walsh to ride and was closing on Petit Mouchoir on the line in the

Petit Mouchoir battles Buveur D'Air

(now in JP McManus green and gold) at Aintree

Irish Champion Hurdle. A quick look at the sectionals shows that Petit Mouchoir went off hard that day and I'd take it more as a negative for the winner rather than a positive for Footpad. He was given a strange ride when dropped way out the back in last years Triumph before staying on into third and I just think that that sort of tactic will not suit this race on the stiff old course at all. That said, if the race is run at a furious pace then he may be there to pick up the pieces and hit the frame at a price if staying on up the hill.

For me though Petit Mouchoir would be favourite if it weren't for his rotten run at last years festival when 8th in the Supreme. On that form he has around 7 lengths to make up with Buveur D'Air. He did however hit the 2nd hurdle early and its possible he never fully regained momentum after that - at Aintree he had closed that gap to a neck. It is entirely possible that the switch of yards to Gordon Elliott has eked out a little more improvement and if he does take to the track he could be hard to pass and is a big player, especially if drifting to an each way price.

But what about the horse who beat him at Aintree? Buveur D'Air would have nothing on bare ratings against the principle contenders in this race having only been switched back to hurdles from a novice chasing career in mid season. His prep run told us nothing when coasting on the bridle past vastly inferior horses to win at Sandown.  He is undoubtedly talented and were it not for two very good horses in front of him would have been a good winner of last years Supreme, I just don't like the change of plan and at the prices could leave him.

Punchestown form is always a little bit 'after the Lord Mayor's parade' but Petit Mouchoir's form line also ties in with Nicky Henderson's other runner Brain Power who was 4 1/2 lengths behind Petit Mouchoir at that meeting. He has since progressed through handicaps, winning two big races at Ascot and Sandown but notably could only manage 8/16 in the Greatwood here in November. He hasn't raced since December with this always being the aim since then. It would be unusual for a handicapper to step up and win this, but it may not be a renewal with that much depth. I can see him hitting the frame but at his price others are preferred.

Yanworth - Can he go one better than last year?

Those others include Henderson's third runner My Tent or Yours, twice runner up in this in his earlier years. It's entirely possible his drop in form this year is just down to him not having his ground, but its also likely to be natural decline. One thing is certain, he is a bridle horse and will find nothing but you can expect him to happily stay on after the last - may be an each way play if you're sentimental.

But if you are sentimental then more than likely your each way money is with The New One. This horse is a bit of a hero and comes here for a 4th crack. To be fair, he has not been bad his year. A season clear of niggles and injury has meant he comes into this in better form than last year and he seems to be somewhat rejuvenated under front running tactics when winning the Grade 2 International and Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock - he is also officially third best on ratings. I imagine he'll still come up he hill well and maybe he'll place again?

The problem is that he will often go through the season picking up grade 2 races but at the top table has never quite been able to deliver. Yanworth in contrast sees to be worth his place here. Simply put, to my mind he and Petit Mouchoir are grade 1 horses in a grade 2 race. He is not flashy, his jumping can be tentative and he got beaten in the Neptune, albeit by an impressive Yorkhill. But, he wins races by grinding them out. Looking back on his champion bumper 4th and Neptune 2nd there is no problem with the way he stays up the hill and I think a true gallop will really suit him. His Christmas Hurdle win this year represents the only piece of form (in the UK at least) in which they were going a true gallop. Kempton would not have suited him and he took a long while to get going but after he did the pace he showed to go past The New One was probably the best turn of foot we have seen this year and I think to me he represents the best chance of getting past Petit Mouchoir. The unknown angle with him is a new jockey in Mark Walsh who although he is a top Irish jockey is still searching for his first festival winner. However, I think his patient style will suit the horse.

Moon Racer wins the 2015 Champion Bumper with Yanworth in 4th

And now for the wild card. Moon Racer is one of my favourite horses in training and I have backed him every run since his champion bumper win. He was primed to be my day 1 nap when still entered in the Supreme but after only two runs over hurdles he is taking on the more experienced horses here and I have no idea how good he'll be. Official ratings tell us very little and he hasn't yet run in 2017. I couldn't tell anyone to back him but I couldn't not back him myself.

On Champion Bumper form however, he is beating Yanworth back into 4th. Yanworth has developed since then, whether Moon Racer has is a mystery until around 3:35 today. He is an 8 year old so fully entitled to take his chance but as such an inexperienced horse I just hope he comes back safe and sound... and if he can manage that I hope he wins it!

In conclusion, there are holes everywhere and it could be anyones race. However, I think Yanworth and Petit Mouchoir are the two standout horses on respective sides of the Irish Sea. Much depends on which horses tactics play out best on the day; if Petit Mouchoir can run to the right sectionals from the front or if Yanworth's jumping keeps him in contention until the end. It is tight for me, but the Champion Hurde is a staying two miles and I think Yanworth's staying credentials will ultimately win out over Petit Mouchoir's speed - but one wrong move and it could be game over.

If you think they are both vulnerable I wouldn't put you off a big each way bet. Scottish Champion Hurdle Winner, Ch'Tibello was in receipt of 4lbs when second to Yanworth last time out but only went down a length, Sceau Royal will likely be ridden to pick up the pieces, Cyrus Darius will likely outrun his odds of 40/1 and the enigma that is Wicklow Brave, who beat Ascot gold cup winner Order of St George on the flat, could be anything if he turns up on the day.

4:10 - Mares Hurdle, 2m4f

Limini grinds out a 2 length victory over Apples Jade at Punchestown

What a good race this is and finally a proper contest for the race to live up to it's grade 1 billing but its hard to see past the first 3 in the market.

Willie Mullins will be dual-handed to retain his almost flawless record in this race. Vroum Vroum Mag returns to defend her title but has been deserted by Ruby Walsh in favour of the inaugural 2016 Mares Novice race winner Limini.

Vroum Vroum has a superb win rate but looked jaded last time out in Doncaster - she returned with a dirty scope, but one has to assume that the jockeys decision to ride Limini leans to the fact she may not be sparkling at home. I was at Sandown last April when she made it all the way to the parade ring before being withdrawn and it wouldn't surprise me if she was a late omission here again. But assuming she does turn up, has Ruby made the right choice?

On pure form Apple's Jade is only 1lb inferior to the leading two. She was beaten last time out by Limini at Punchestown but that was on heavy ground. It is no coincidence that her only run on good ground this term resulted in her beating Vroum Vroum Mag and you only have to look at last season to see she is highly likely to come into her own for the spring weather. At the prices she has to be the selection.

In the event that one of the big three flops on the day then there are a couple of big prices in Ron's Dream and Briery Queen who could hit the frame at 66/1 apiece. Lifeboat Mona has also shown decent enough form and a bit of improvement could see her in the mix for places if things fall right for her on the day.

4:50 - National Hunt Novice Chase, 4m

Jockey's play a massive part in this race which is restricted to amateurs. It can be one that throws up a very good horse and if you can find one that has run well in top class staying novice chases

whilst looking like they need further then that could be the key. The ones who tick these boxes are A Genie in Abottle (Jamie Codd), Edwulf (Derek O'Connor), Beware the Bear (Sam Whaley Cohen), Arpege D'Alene (Will Biddick) Bigbadjohn (Barry O'Neill).

The most frustrating horse in Nicholl's yard Arpege D'Alene

I liked the way Bigbadjohn closed on (Coneygrees brother) Fintham on the line last time out and he is certainly one of the more experienced in the field. I can see the step up in trip suiting him. The best of the English horses though may be Beware the Bear who looked really good winning at Newbury and is 3 from 3 this term. He hasn't been seen this calendar year but Nicky Henderson sounds pretty sweet on him which is an obvious plus.

Arpege D'Alene is infinitely frustrating for Paul Nicholls having shown grade 1 quality at home but never quite on the track. Maybe this step up in trip will be exactly what he needs, maybe not. Tiger Roll is of course a Cheltenham winner, albeit over 2m hurdles. He is overpriced at 20/1 based on form and I wouldn't put you off a place bet, though I know nothing about the jockey.

I was really hoping that Jamie Codd would have chosen to ride Champers on Ice who would've been my selection. The decision to ride A Genie in Abottle plays into that horses favour massively and he has shaped like he will stay every yard of the 4m. He is a naff price though especially when compared with Edwulf who runs for JP McManus. It would be fitting if he won this race which is named in honour of the late JT McNamara and would be another festival winner for star in the marking Joseph O'Brien.

5:30 - Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase, 2m4f

This is a race that usually throws up a good winner. The one's that catch the eye are Two Taffs with Cheltenham maestro Davy Russell aboard, Gold Present whose mark remains unchanged despite a good grade 2 win last time out, Neptune 3rd Its'afreebee, Burtons Well, Foxtail Hill, Mixboy and Double W's who comes here for the shrewdest of the shrewd Macolm Jefferson.

Take your pick of those but at the prices I'll opt for the progressive Mixboy and side with Nicky Henderson in Gold Present to continue the trainers good record here.