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| The 11 year old Cue Card bids again for Gold Cup glory |
In this preview, I provide a brief guide to my approach to the festival, looking at bookmaker offers to add some intrigue to the week; I analyse the short price favourites, the biggest head-to-heads, trainers to follow and provide some antepost Shrewdies.
I will be posting a blog for each day with a selection in each race up for 9am each morning.
But for now, without further ado...
Bookmaker Offers
With 28 races, betting in each race can become expensive.... most bookmakers use Cheltenham for new account acquisitions. If you can withstand the barrage of marketing spam that will inevitably follow these two sound like the best two offers if you want to bet on the festival on a budget:
Paddy Power - new account offer of 10/1 on Altior (1/4) and Douvan (2/7) (maximum of £10) to both win with the enhanced odds returned as free bets. Barring a total shock this should give you £100 in free bets to play with by 15:35 on Wednesday.
Bet Victor - new account offer, bet £10 and get a free £2 bet on every race at Cheltenham
So to me that's £156 worth of bets for just £20 and seems good value...
In general, I would always recommend playing the placepot on any given day selecting a horse in each of the first 6 races to hit the frame - considering most days have 3 or 4 graded races with well fancied horses then you stand a good chance of winning and it's usually a reasonable pot.
Shrew's Shorties
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| GOOOOOONYAGOODTINGS! - The 'invincibles' of this years festival - but who is a genuine legend in waiting and who is just a bit too short? |
Every year, as with every race meeting up and down the country, there are short price favourites who live up to their billing and those who completely flop. Here, I review the festivals shortest 'shorties' and which I would back or which I would lay. Although a winning bet here isn't likely to pay for the retirement fund, a short-priced favourite is often a good way to enhance your price on other bets by placing them in multiples with bigger priced horses, or, placing a handful in an accumulator by themselves. So let's have a look at which shorties are 'good things' and which may be too good to be true...
Following the injury to Thistlecrack earlier in the year there are now two headline names who will be called upon to light up the festival. Altior and Douvan, both unbeaten over obstacles, head their respective markets and with good cause. At time of writing, Altior is still entered in the Queen Mother which would lead to a mouth-watering clash between the two of them (which for the record I think Altior would win), however he is much more likely to go down the novice route and leave Douvan to win in the Queen Mother. They are largely as bulletproof as their respective prices suggest and both races should really just be watched and enjoyed rather than punted on. Altior's jumping so far has been incredibly safe, perhaps giving fences a little too much air. Douvan conversely is slick and low at his fences and almost hurdles them - this may be the only small vulnerability if he decides to get cocky but barring act of God they both win.
In recent history, the mares hurdle is more often than not dominated by one horse, with Quevega,
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| Limini and Apples Jade lock horns again in the mares hurdle |
Neon Wolf looked like a real star of the future when winning his last race. He is likely to go for the Neptune unless the ground comes up soft in which case connections may be tempted to run him in the Supreme - either way, he is the best novice hurdler in training and I think he'll win. As I write - Finian's Oscar, perhaps his closest rival has been ruled out of the festival with a stone bruise - so he's maybe even more of a good thing than before!
Might Bite and Yorkhill are obvious talents with big question marks over their heads which I elaborate on below. Cantlow was a good second when conceding weight in the cross country on trials day but will place a completely different field and I'm not convinced he'll reverse form with the French horse, even off level weights. On the Fringe goes for an unprecedented treble treble in the Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown foxhunters - he could be vulnerable to one or two here but I find it hard to want to back against history. The Triumph is a tricky race to call but Defi Du Seuil has shown all of the best form this year and looks top class.
My lay of the meeting for me is Death Duty - not because I don't think he's good - but the Albert Bartlett is a really attritional test. Gordon Elliott has said that this horse is better than Don Cossack at this stage of his career which is high praise indeed - however this is a graveyard for short priced favourites. English contenders Wholestone and West Approach (Thistlecrack's half brother) seem more battle hardened and could spring a surprise.
In summary:
| Horse | Race | Day | Time | Best Odds | Shrew's Verdict |
| Altior | Arkle | Tuesday | 14:10 | 1/4 | Invincible - Sit back and admire |
| Limini | Mares Hurdle | Tuesday | 16:10 | 5/4 | Lay |
| Vroum Vroum Mag | Mares Hurdle | Tuesday | 16:10 | 6/4 | Lay |
| Neon Wolf | Neptune (or Supreme) | Wednesday | 13:30 | 9/4 | Back wherever he goes |
| Might Bite | RSA | Wednesday | 14:10 | 5/2 | Back on the day |
| Douvan | Champion Chase | Wednesday | 15:30 | 2/7 | Invincible |
| Cantlow | Cross Country | Wednesday | 16:10 | 2/1 | Lay |
| Yorkhill | JLT | Thursday | 13:30 | 11/8 | Lay |
| Unowhatimeanharry | Stayers Hurdle | Thursday | 15:30 | 5/4 | Back - Hard to Beat |
| Defi Du Seuil | Triumph | Friday | 13:30 | 2/1 | Back |
| Death Duty | Albert Bartlett | Friday | 14:50 | 2/1 | Lay, back Wholestone instead |
| On The Fringe | Foxhunters | Friday | 16:10 | 11/8 | Back |
Top 10 Head-to-Heads
Ireland vs England
The 'Prestbury Cup' adds an extra layer of competition to the week with the English strong favourites to have more winners this year... They will have to wrestle the cup back from the Irish who were eventually awarded the 2016 cup following a 14-14 tie when it was announced that Any Currency, English winner of the Cross Country, had tested positive for an illegal substance therefore being disqualified to the benefit of (Irish trained) Josie's Orders. If only we knew which ones were on drugs beforehand...
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| Will he get up the hill? |
'Horses for courses' rings just as true for Cheltenham as anywhere else and course form is a key guide to picking winners. But for one error at Kempton, the RSA favourite Might Bite would have been a massively impressive winner over Christmas, which clearly represents the best form on offer in this race. The horse seems to have grown into himself and his scope now clearly suggests he has taken well to chasing. However, all of his best form is on flat tracks... He is a gelding out of Scorpion, who famously (setting aside a few notable exceptions) 'don't get up the hill'. His form at the course over hurdles reads 157, compared with easy wins around Kempton, Newbury and Doncaster. If, it is simply the case that the horse has taken a while to come into himself and is now an entirely different proposition then he surely bolts up. But, this course and this trip especially takes a lot of getting and he'd have to get every yard of the 3m2f to win here.
Yorkhill vs the voices in his head
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| Yorkhill beating Champion Hurdle favourite Yanworth at last year's festival |
You just need to watch a replay of the 2016 Neptune to know Yorkhill is brilliant - he galloped all over Yanworth that day and that forms most of the reason he is favourite for this years JLT. He has looked a little workmanlike over fences so far and going into the race in my opinion he has a bit to find with some of the other fancied runners in a hot renewal. However, his biggest danger could yet be Yorkhill! At a recent racecourse gallop, the horse decided he'd much prefer to school over hurdles darting straight for the hurdles course before being brought back on track to blunder his way through a few fences before finally getting into a rhythm and looking generally impressive for the rest of the way around. In all seriousness I don't think it was too much of a worry for his chances but it's worth looking out for any sign of those quirks rearing their head on Thursday.
If you do fancy him and also fancy Yanworth it's probably worth getting on now as the price will likely collapse if the latter wins the Champion Hurdle.
Augusta Kate vs Death Duty
Although I think the two English horses in West Approach and Wholestone have the better chance in the Albert Bartlett this is a subplot that fascinates me. Willie Mullins is of the opinion that Augusta Kate would have beaten Death Duty before coming down at the last hurdle last time out. I'm sceptical... but keep your eye on a rematch between the two on Friday.
Jamie Codd vs Derek O'Connor
Though most races are all about the horse, the amateur jockey's come to the fore in several key races; the Four Miler, the Kim Muir and the Foxhunters Chase will usually go to the best jockey on the day rather than simply the horse. Although there are other top jockeys to follow you can't go wrong with following Jamie Codd (who also rides dual festival winner Cause of Causes in the cross country) and Derek O'Connor. It will be interesting to see which amateur rider comes up trumps.
Willie Mullins vs Gigginstown
One of the biggest stories in the early season was Gigginstown studs decision to remove 60 top quality horses from Willie Mullins yard, with Gordon Elliott, Henry de Bromhead and Mouse Morris as some of the main beneficiaries. I'm sure deep down there is nothing Mullins would like more to get the better of Gigginstown horses throughout the week - At time of writing it is unclear whether Empire of Dirt will switch to the Gold Cup, but if he stays in the Ryanair there is sure to be a top class match up against Un De Sceaux. Limini just about got the better of Apples Jade last time out but there is a strong chance the form could be reversed on better ground and finally Mullins will hope that Djakadam will be able to repel both Outlander (and maybe Empire of Dirt) in the Gold Cup.
JP McManus vs JP McManus
JP McManus is set to have a very good festival, but the markets in several key races throw up some top clashes between his horses. The Champion Hurdle sees Yanworth and Buveur D'Air as first and second favourite with the state of the ground the key factor in who will go off market leader. Unowhatimeanharry is a clear favourite for the Stayers Hurdle but there are many who see his biggest threat as 2014 Champion Hurdle winner Jezki who steps up in trip. Defi Du Seuil is a hot 2/1 favourite in the Triumph to maintain his unbeaten run but the forgotten horse could be Charli Parcs who would be a massive price if he could regain his early season form here. With a boat load of other strong chances and head-to-heads across the week, he would be my choice of champion owner at the meeting.
Gordon Elliott vs Phil Smith
Much headline space has been dedicated to the spats between Phil Smith, the BHA head of handicapping and Irish runners with the perception being that Irish runners are badly treated in English handicaps (especially Gordon Elliotts). The feud came to a head when Smith allocated three Gigginstown horses the top three weights in the Grand National and resulted in a war of words that is still on going. In my view the timing of the dispute has meant that actually a few of Gordon Elliott's horses (The Storyteller being the obvious one in the Martin Pipe) might have gotten in a bit lighter than they would in previous years. If they lose, it proves Elliott right, if they win they win - so it seems like a fairly good position to go into the festival with.
Altior vs Douvan
They may not be taking one another one for at least another year but the two star attractions will be competing for headline space on Tuesday and Wednesday and should both put in spectacular performances.
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| Every inch a Gold Cup horse, but does he have the class to fend them off? |
Whatever happens Colin Tizzard has had a fantastic season and despite Thistlecrack missing out with a tendon injury he still has two very good chances in the Gold Cup. I think it is fair to say Cue Card is the most popular horse in training but at 11 years old he faces a stiff task of seeing out a trip that is probably further than his ideal. I adore the young pretender Native River, who if nothing else will definitely stay the trip. His Hennessey and Welsh National wins were backed up with a strong win at Newbury in February and he is absolutely built for this test - but will he have the class? They are far from the only horses with chances in this years race but it would be a superb subplot if they jump the third last together.
Trainers to Follow
Aside from the obvious in Henderson, Mullins and Elliott, Paul Nicholls has been deadly in handicaps in recent years and any runner (especially a French import) is worth a few quid on. In terms of profitability you can't go wrong with backing a Jonjo O'Neill horse (especially over the first day) - This would include Holywell who was second in last year's Ultima and has been running suspiciously badly again all year to come into it off a low mark .
Shrew's Shrewdies
I will preview each day as we go but for those desperate to place an early bet, here are a few initial fancies for some of the non-championship races based on horses I think look well placed:
Singlefarmpayment - Ultima Handicap - Tuesday 14:50 - 10/1
Strong Cheltenham form and was tanking when brought down last time out - off a great mark.
Beware the Bear - 4 Miler - Tuesday 16:50 - 9/1
Just a silly price considering form with other contenders.
Romain De Senam - Cose Brothers Handicap Chase - Tuesday 17:30 - 8/1
Second by a nose in last year's Fred Winter - sneaks in at the bottom of handicap
Divin Bere - Fred Winter - Wednesday 16:50 - 6/1
Potentially thrown in - was borderline between this and the Triumph hurdle
Someday - Champion Bumper - Wednesday 17:30 - 7/1
Might have a bit in hand in a pretty open bumper and seems a good price
Charli Parcs - Triumph Hurdle - Friday 13:30 - 10/1
This is a massive price and all because of a fall when coming back on the bridle last time out. If you can forgive a horse one bad run then he could be a huge bet.
The Storyteller - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys - Friday 16:50 - 4/1
The cat may be out of the bag on this one - but probably the best horse to benefit from the Anglo-Irish handicapping debate.
Le Prezien - Grand Annual - Friday 17:30 - 10/1
This race often goes to a good novice and he is shrewdly placed by Nicholls if he turns up here.
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