The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival Preview Day 3

Willoughby Court out-jumps Neon Wolf to land the Neptune

Day 2 started with a bang for followers of the Shrew as Willoughby Court (who went off at 14's) put in a superb front-running performance and was all grit when seeing off favourite Neon Wolf up the run in. A little bit of redemption for jockey David Bass after his departure on Charbel on Tuesday. He will be a very good horse over fences next year and I imagine Neon Wolf will continue his progression wherever connections send him (Champion Hurdle?)

Nico keeps the partnership intact before an epic finish on Might Bite

And the good times continued for the Shrew as Might Bite simultaneously proved his doubters wrong and right in one of the best horse races you will see. Handy throughout, Acapella Bourgeois was able to go with him for a fair way but got outpaced on the second circuit. He was a good 15 lengths clear coming into the home straight almost in the style of Denman's Gold Cup. Clear at the last, he did his very best to repeat his Kempton feat by falling at the last and it was to Nico De Boinville's credit that he got his legs up over it. But the fun was only just beginning as he started to weave all over the straight coming up the hill and if it wasn't for the loose horse running alongside him may have run off into the crowd. All the while Davy Russell pushed Whisper closer and closer until he headed the favourite only for Might Bite to show how game he is by pushing his way back in front to win it in a photo. It was the race of the meeting so far and Might Bite follows Labaik and Tiger Roll's wins yesterday in what is clearly the year of the quirk-bag at Cheltenham.I am delighted for a really characterful horse and mean it in the best possible way when I say I never want to see him at Cheltenham again. Whisper completed another 1-2 for Nicky Henderson who is on fire and has jumped himself into contention to defeat Paul Nicholls in the trainers championship.

Last year's supreme form was to the fore in the Coral Cup, but it wasn't the favourite who obliged, but Supersundae who managed to get a clear run through from a prominent positions. Shrewdie each way backers were rewarded again with Taquin Du Seuil coming in 2nd at 20/1 each way. Peregrine Run was unlucky when being bumped into just before three out and losing his place before the bend. The Tin Soldier never really had a chance from being way too far off the pace but finished like a good horse to eventually come 8th.

Special Tiara wondering what happened to Douvan?

And perhaps Ruby Walsh was just making sure nothing happened before his big ride on Douvan. As it happened he shouldn't have bothered. As expected, Special Tiara went off in front with Douvan comfortably settled in behind. But from an early stage Douvan was in trouble at his fences, taking off too early or getting in too close. When you look back at his previous runs he always seems to step over his fences and the height of them at Cheltenham along with championship level pace meant that he just was never jumping. He was in trouble long before they came down the hill and by that time Special Tiara was away and gone from the front. The others who were likely ridden to pick up places never came back to him. On a side note, Willie Mullins record with second season chasers is abysmal here and probably worth taking on in future in this sort of race. I imagine Douvan potentially pulled something with one of those jumps and hope to see him back fighting fit again soon.

But all credit to the winner because what a superb horse he has been. From his exuberant round of jumping at Kempton a few years back, to setting up a great win by Sprinter Sacre (just goes to show how good he was) last year he is all pace and it's great to see a horse like him have his name down as a champion chaser. Anyway - based on this weeks evidence Altior wins the Champion Chase next year and easily too if his 9 length demolition of Fox Norton is anything to go by. A sensational result for Special Tiara and what a week it has been for Noel Feihly who completes a big race double with Unowhatimeanharry still to come today in the Stayers Hurdle. Jock him up in the Gold Cup too I say!

I love the Cross Country; it always makes a brilliant watch even though I have no idea where they are on the course. You'd have been forgiven for thinking we were on for a big 1-2 at one point as Any Currency and Ballybroker Bridge took them along. But their age gave way in the end as the JP McManus trio loomed. Eventually it was Cause of Causes proving the schooling trips over here were well worth it to land a 1-2 or Gordon Elliott with Bless The Wings splitting him from the other two McManus horses. It is a third festival victory for the horse with course magician Jamie Codd.

Divin Bere was a neck away from making it a great day for Shrewdies when going down to Flying Tiger in the Fred Winter. Nietzsche showed that he is just a shade away from Ubermensch status in third. The Bumper looked sewn up by Debuchet who was clear going into the straight when she was swept up by the fast finishing Fayonagh who gave Gordon Elliott and Jamie Codd a double on the day. The man is unstoppable. Western Ryder was a good staying on 5th.

***

Super Stayer Unowhatimeanharry bids for gold in the big race

Day 3 sees the Stayers Hurdle take centre stage; a race that produced the performance of the festival last year from Thistlecrack. He isn't here this time around but there is an interesting contender in the sae colours - a half brother West Approach - who comes here as a novice. But he will have to go some to beat the hot favourite Unowhatimeanharry who has been a Whistling Shrew favourite since landing the Albert Bartlett last year. He isn't as brilliant as Thistlecrack but he has been ultra consistent winning every staying contest going this term and is the one to beat. He will face a few different rivals to his races to date though, notably 2014 Champion Hurdle winner Jezki who runs in the same gold and green silks of JP McManus and will be up to giving the favourite a run for his money.

But this could be the day when things finally go right for Willie Mullins. Un De Sceaux heads the field in the other feature race, the Ryanair. Michael O'Leary has never won his own race but has a top chance with festival handicap winner Empire of Dirt. Both will have to race past a returning champion Uxizandre who shaped nicely on return from injury last time out. In the novice equivalent of the Ryanair, the JLT, Yorkhill returns to take his festival tally to 2/2 and could kick start a good day for Willie Mullins with Let's Dance a red hot favourite to take the Mares Novice later in the day.

If you can pick the three winners of the handicaps then it's probably a good day to play the lottery. But the big story would be if Tobefair can extend what has been an incredible record of 7 straight wins that have seen him raise over 50lbs in the handicap and win the Pertemps for Debra Hamer with her first ever festival runner.

Enjoy and most importantly,

Stay Shrewd...

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 - Top Notch 10/3 or Flying Angel 14/1 e/w

2:10 - Impulsive Star 10/1, Forgoodmeasure 10/1 or Barney Dwan 20/1 e/w

2:50 - Un De Sceaux 9/4 - Un De Sceaux/ Empire of Dirt forecast.

3:30 - Unowhatimeanharry 5/4 (Festival Nap),
          Cole Harden 8/1 or Ballyoptic 16/1 e/w

4:10 - Pinkie Brown 66/1  e/w or Starchitect 8/1 e/w

4:50 - Let's Dance 11/8 (nap)

5:30 - Dr Harper 14/1 or Southfield Theatre 7/1

We did it last year with Vautor and Thistlecrack so why not try it again, the big Thursday double - Un De Sceaux and Unowhatimeanharry at around 6/1.. or throw in Let's Dance as well for a treble. And if you decide you like Yorkhill in the first why not make it a lucky 15!

Disclaimer: Neither Un De Sceaux or Unowhatimeanharry are as good as Vautour or Thistlecrack, but both stand good prices of winning their races at respective prices. ;)

Race-by-race Guide

1:30 - JLT Novice Chase, 2m4f

Lovable lunatic Yorkhill was an exceptional winner of the Neptune last year. I put up Yanworth to beat him on that day and later on walked past a road called 'York Hill'. If I am going to ignore omens like that then I deserve to lose and will make a point of taking the scenic route if I need to go to the shops this morning.

Yorkhill beats Yanworth easily in the Neptune

On hurdles form Yorkhill would be a good thing against these and he would've been favourite if switched to the champion hurdle, however, his efforts over fences still require a bit of imagination to see him being a comfortable winner here. Moreover, Yanworth did nothing to frank the form of his Neptune win on Tuesday. He jumps fine but still pulls very hard and where I'd trust Ruby Walsh to give him the right ride he is simply too short based on the fact he is top rated by only a pound. Also, he clearly has monkey DNA somewhere in him and can be a tad unpredictable as evidenced when trying to drag Ruby Walsh onto the hurdles course in a recent schooling session.That isn't to say he won't win and he may win well, just that on current evidence he doesn't deserve to be the price he is.

The question is what to oppose him with?

The answer could be Disko who has looked really good this year and already has winning form at the top table. Noel Meade's festival record though is abysmal, I'm not sure why but its something that's hard to ignore. I also have doubts as to whether he'll be quick enough having only beaten Our Duke - who is as boat-like as they come - last time out.

Flying Angel was a really good winner of the Kingmakers novice hurdle last year and comes into this with good Cheltenham form when 2nd in the Martin Pipe last year. That wouldn't stack up with Yorkhills Neptune form but I think he is a much better chaser than he was hurdler while the favourite has been on par if not regressive on his two starts to date. That isn't to say he doesn't have a lot more in the locker but given the respective prices one can speculate.

Top Notch on his way to victory at Sandown

Top Notch has Cheltenham form and has recorded his best RPRs here each season but more importantly he's now worked out how to win and looked really good when landing the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown in February. He is a really small horse but if he can get round the Sandown fences then he stands a good chance here too.

Politologue is the only other horse who would stand a chance on ratings. He is undoubtedly very good but was a miserable 20th of 26th in the Coral Cup last year and unseated on his only other start at Cheltenham so it's hard to be overly enthusiastic. This is of course an altogether different test  and like Top Notch he is a much better chaser than hurdler but all his form is flat galloping track form so hard to make a case for.

So at the prices it's Top Notch, with the expectation in the back of my head that Yorkhill will probably outsmart me again.

2:10 - Pertemps Network Final Hurdle, 3m

Tobefair - the gift that just keeps on giving

The big story of this race would be if Tobefair can notch up an 8th successive win on a journey that has seen him rise about four and a half stone in ratings. This is trainer Debra Hamer's first runner at the festival. His owners, I believe, are a group of pub regulars who surely can't believe their luck to have gotten their horse here let alone having one with a live chance. And the thing is he is still unexposed. I wouldn't say 5/1 represents any sort of value but I wouldn't put anyone off the fairytale gamble being landed.

Leaving sentimentality aside, Barney Dwan was a horse travelling really well upsides Tobefair a few starts back and is now 12lbs better off with the favourite. But the horse that beat him last time out could well be the one to side with. Impulsive Star has only one blip on his CV and although it was at Cheltenham it was in a much classier race that this when finishing behind Albert Bartlett fancy Wholestone.

Forgoodmeasure looks a nice sort and has been running well around Cheltenham with two placed efforts in his last three runs. That course experience could prove valuable and he is off a good mark. He is the mount of champion jockey Richard Johnson who would have had the choice of  2013 winner Fingal Bay return as an 11 year old - It's great to see him here but I don't think he has any chance of recapturing his crown but will hopefully have a good spin round.

Gordon Elliott runs Jury Duty who looks like the big hope for Ireland along with Willie Mullins Isleofhopeanddreams. The Irish broke a long standing run of home wins in this when Mall Dini won it last year. If they are well handicapped then I can see them both running well alongside Presenting Percy.

2:50 - Ryanair Chase, 2m5f

Probably the biggest Mullins vs Gigginstown clash of the week as previous Arkle winner  Un De Sceaux takes on festival handicap winner Empire of Dirt. Tony McCoy's last Cheltenham winner Uxizandre makes up the top three in the betting, but we'll come to him later.

Un De Sceaux has made his name in 2m chases and only found Sprinter Sacre too good last season, which is no great shame. Many would argue 2m is still his best trip but the presence of stablemate Douvan has lead to him being here instead. He is top rated by 5lbs, so why is the betting so tight? Many will remember his keen frontrunning style that potentially cost him last years Queen Mother and lead to some silly jumping errors in his novice days and on that logic draw the conclusion that he can't maintain the same form over 2m5f - especially at Cheltenham.

"The one from Sceaux" winning his Arkle against God's Own

However, I think his run last time out here over 2m1f showed that we are dealing with a completely different horse. He settled beautifully behind Uxizandre and stayed every yard, with only one small jumping error on the way round. If Uxizandre bids to win this race in a similar way to his 2015 win by going from the front, he can tuck in behind him - if not he can make the pace. He is a solid grade 1 performer and moreover, the fact is that he just wins races. He showed he can stay 2m5f in a hurdle race in Auteuil and although this is a completely different bag with Ruby dictating the pace he will get the trip. He is 7 from 11 over fences, with two falls in his early career and 2 defeats to Sprinter Sacre. It is just better form and I think he should really be evens here. Douvan's defeat leaves the Mullins team in need of a pick me up and I think this could be it.

Empire of Dirt will definitely stay the trip based on his win in last years festival and a run behind Sizing John in the Irish Gold Cup but he is priced as if he is a fast improving young horse rather than a horse making late progress through handicaps. I will tear the Irish Gold Cup form to shreds tomorrow but needless to say I don't think it says much as they crawled along for the first mile or so relative to the pace that Ruby Walsh would set on Un De Sceaux here. He is a good horse, but he is a handicapper. To me, only Un De Sceaux and Uxizandre are the two graded level horses here and one is vastly superior. Uxizandre also has the added difficulty to overcome of bouncing after his first run back after injury so may be vulnerable for second place.

This all said, you do have to worry about stable-form and if Un De Sceaux does get beaten by Empire of Dirt we may just have to accept that Elliott is flying and it's really not Willie Mullins year.

The others aren't particularly worth mentioning, unless Uxizandre bounces in which case something at a big price might hit the frame. Alary has been a much talked about and expensive French import who may not yet have shown his true colours and Sub Lieutenant is a consistent performer who I'd expect to give a good account of himself.

3:30 - Stayer's Hurdle, 3m

Unowhatimeanharry en route to Albert Bartlett success

My short priced nap of the week is Unowhatimeanharry. He was a shrewdie in last year's Albert Bartlett at 11/1 (I think) and I've been backing him ever since. He has been the best staying hurdler this year and has won every trial and they still haven't gotten to the bottom of him. I think 5/4 represents good value but he will need to prove he's still on the top of his game against some stiff opposition.

2015 winner Cole Harden ran very well against Harry last time out and showed he may be returning to best form. He will definitely come good for the ground and will go from the front to act as a target. I think this could serve him well in finishing in the places but I fully expect Unowhatimeanharry to pass him. I don't think his stayers hurdle was up to the same class as what I expect the favourite to produce today but I would not put anyone off thinking he'll come second.

The majority of this field have been beaten by Unowhatimeanharry already this year and some more than once. West Approach has run well as a novice and will represent the Thistlecrack colours here. I'd say he was probably flattered by his run last time out when picking up the pieces behind a quick pace from Cole Harden and others would be preferred. Purely at the prices Ballyoptic is overpriced but has been beaten well by Unowhatimeanharry when they've met this season. He is probably a decent each way prospect though.

The unknown quantities in the race are Jezki and Nichols Canyon both who have spent most of their Shaneshill who has an impeccable Cheltenham record and had the beating of Snow Falcon last time out - another horse to be beaten by Unowhatimeanharry. I can see Shaneshill hitting the frame.

Jezki winning the champion hurdle

careers running over 2m. Nichols Canyon is undoubtedly a top class performer and I think the step up to 3m will suit him, but, I have my doubts about whether we will see the same Nichols Canyon we have done in other years. He has been campaigned hard for the last 2 seasons including a trip to America and looked a little agitated even before his last race had begun. I'm surprised Ruby Walsh has opted for him over stablemate

Anyway, Jezki has had two nice prep runs this year when returning from injury and has previously run well over longer distances. I want to believe he's trained on to be good enough to be championship class again but as of yet I haven't seen the evidence - Good ground and a long trip at produce it but he's currently priced on reputation rather than proven ability.

4:10 - Brown Advisory Handicap Chase, 2m5f

More of a lottery than the grand national - you'd be better off just closing your eyes, sticking a pin into the paper and backing that one. We may as well choose one at a big price.

Diamond King looks likely to go off favourite after his win here last year but I don't think he's half as good over fences as he is hurdles. Given the form of Gordon Elliott though it wouldn't be the most unlikely thing to happen.

40/1 is a nice price and that's what price Pinkie Brown is. I wrote earlier in the week about the shrewdness of Neil Mulholland so we may as well take a chance at a big price.

Starchitect for the Pipe team looks a safer bet if playing the placepot and Bouvreuil is another one with obvious appeal.

4:50 - Mares Novice Hurdle, 2m1f

Let's Dance would likely have gone well against the geldings but she turns up here on the basis that she will win a £50,000 bonus for stable staff if successful in any Cheltenham race and she'll probably do it. I don't see much point in making it any more complicated than that.

Let's Dance bids to give Mullins/Ricci/Walsh a perfect 2/2 in this race

Her biggest competitor will likely be from her own stable in the form of Airlie Beach - she has also been brilliant this year against the geldings. She has a great story behind her having given birth to a foal at the tender age of 4 - The Mullins team had put what they thought was a gelding out to grass with her only to find that he was very much not a gelding... Since returning to the track though she's knocked up a series of wins and is probably overpriced at 3/1 although the vibes are very much that Let's Dance is the superior of the two.

Of the others, La Bague Au Roi has been a big talking horse and will likely run well. Whether she is up to this standard though is doubtful. Forge Meadow is a much more likely threat based on her run behind Shattered Love to runs ago.  

5:30 - Kim Muir Handicap Chase, 3m2f

Again, like the 4m chase earlier in the week Jockey bookings are important. Squouateur was a massive gamble last year in the Martin Pipe where he did reasonably well to stay on 7th. He's in this off a ark lower than he was over hurdles so could easily be a big plot horse here for Gordon Elliott. Jamie Codd riding will put nobody off.

Mall Dini was a good winner of the Pertemps last year but has not looked as good over fences.

Dr Harper was backed into 4/1 favourite for this last year and is now 14/1- we saw on Tuesday that David Pipe can prepare one for a handicap so it might be worth giving him another shot.

Southfield Royale in contrast ran well in last years four miler coming 4th behind Minella Rocco and Native River. He has been off the boil since but is an al out stayer and could make the most of a low mark.

A mention has to go to the legendary Alvarado who has been placed in 2 grand nationals with a signature late run. I think he is probably on the decline now but he goes well here and is not without a shout.