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| Yorkhill timed to perfection to jump the last in front in the JLT |
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| Russell delivers Presenting Percy with aplomb to land back to back Pertemps wins for connections |
The Pertemps should really be renamed the Davy Russell Handicap stakes as the Cheltenham maestro produced Presenting Percy sublimely up the home straight. For a moment I thought that Barney Dwan might be about to land a big win for followers of the Shrew but as soon as you see a Davy Russell mount coming around the outside like that you just know you're doomed as he never times it wrong. Superb jockey and a horse to watch for next year. All the same a good each way at 20/1 (was 33s when tipped in the festival preview) for Barney Dwan in second. Jury Duty was a good third for Gordon Elliott and an old handicap favourite The Tourad Man did excellently to stay on in fourth. For Good Measure was one of the hard luck stories here getting bunched in and finishing well.
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| Un De Sceaux makes it two on the day for Walsh and Mullins |
Back to the Grade 1s and Willie Mullins fired again with an outrageous performance from Un De Sceaux in winning the Ryanair. The horse must have been watching the tapes from Day 1 and 2 looking at the likes of Labaik, Might Bite and Tiger Roll and clearly decided to prove there is only one King of the Equine Lunatics. For the first couple of fences he looked to be settled nicely in midfield but then decided he wanted to go faster, pulled his (and Ruby Walsh's) way to the front and never looked back. I'd fancy him in the King George if he showed up - Imagine if Might Bite and Thistlecrack make it there too... we can dream.
Empire of Dirt never really fired and Gigginstown's second string ended up taking second place in the Ryanair owners own race (A bad sign for Sizing John in the Gold Cup today). The beautiful subplot being the O'Leary had to present the trophy to Willie Mullins having removed 60 horses from his yard at the beginning of the season.
And if things were going well at that stage for Walsh and Mullins then they must have been on cloud 9 after the Stayers Hurdle as Ruby Walsh drove Nichols Canyon to victory to beat Unowhatimeanharry who came in third just behind a great run from the brilliant Lil Rockerfeller. Placed in a champion hurdle and always campaigned with vigour, Nichols Canyon proved that he is all class and emulated the great Inglis Drever who won two Stayers Hurdles in the same colours for owner Graham Wylie who completed a double on the day with Yorkhill's earlier success.
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| Nichols Canyon closes the gap on Lil Rockerfeller for winner 3, before Let's Dance provides a 4 timer |
Cole Harden went off hard from the front as expected and was left there until two out when Unowhatimeanharry loomed to strike. I feel that the favourite probably could've done with the pace being kept up a little bit longer as his strength is very much in staying up the straight rather than making it from the front. Either way Lil Rockerfeller got first run on him and Walsh, clinging to the rail got Nichols Canyon on a straight line to power home. He is a great little horse with a fantastic constitution. I remember when he was a novice here and used to take his hurdles incredibly low, he's matured superbly and fully deserves to be a Cheltenham Festival winner.
Gigginstown got some compensation for their earlier defeat as Road for Respect forged clear to pick up the festival plate before Ruby Walsh struck again to land the Shrewdies nap on Let's Dance in the mares novice - this horse would've gone close against the geldings and won easily to pick up stable staff a 50,000 euro bonus. She completed a treble for Shrewdie backers with Unowhatimeanharry the only leg to not quite deliver. Domesday book came home first in the Kim Muir under a great ride from yet another upcoming female jockey in Miss Gina Andrews - and yet the BBC still focus on Lizzie Kelly and Tea for Two- ah well....
***
Day 4 starts with the Triumph which has a hot favourite in Defi Du Seuil. All through the season it looked like his main challenger for favouritism would come from a horse in the same colours, Charli Parcs - who was advised as an each way bet at 10/1 in my festival preview, but is now backed into 4s. According to Nicky Henderson Charli Parcs has been working the house down and would be streets ahead of Divin Bere who was a close second in the Fred Winter off of top weight. He is a serious horse - but he is not favourite because last time out he was beaten - looking awkward all race he was just coming back onto the bridle when falling at the second last (injuring Barry Gerahty in the process) and handing the race to the impressive and fast improving winner Master Blueeyes. This is teed up to be a great race whatever the result.
In the County, Dan Skelton bids for a second successive win with North Hill Harvey. The race also sees the return of former triumph winner Peace and Co from a spell in the wilderness. Then we move onto the gruelling Albert Bartlett for staying novice hurdlers, where high flying Gordon Elliott runs by his own admission his nap of the week in Death Duty who is already a grade 1 winner. On the Fringe returns in a bid for what will be an historic third Foxhunters with man of the moment Jamie Codd on his back and the card concludes with two tricky handicaps in the Martin Pipe and the Grand Annual.
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| Djakadam (right) beaten by Don Cossack in 2016. Can he go one better on third time of asking? |
But more importantly, this is Gold Cup Day and to celebrate I've written an essay which hopefully provides some insight into the key runners, as well as containing a few paragraphs that are simply me declaring my love of Native River. So enjoy that.
The retirements and injuries to many big names; Don Cossack, Coneygree, Thistlecrack, Don Poli, Many Clouds and Vautour mean that this race could perhaps be viewed as having no stand out contender. What we are left with then is a fiercely competitive betting heat with Tizzard the West Country Wizard (Cue Card and Native River) taking on Ireland who's charge is lead by twice second Djakadam, Irish Gold Cup winner Sizing John and Lexus winner Outlander. There are subplots galore - can Cue Card win at 11 years old? Can Djakadam emulate The Fellow and finally win at third time of asking? Will Native River be caught from the front? Can Sizing John break the Irish Gold Cup hoodoo in this race? Has everyone forgotten More of That? Who is Champagne West? Will Bristol De Mai be tricked into thinking he is running at Haydock on soft ground and manage to perform on the biggest stage of all? All will be revealed on the final day of Cheltenham!
Stay Shrewd.
t.w.s.
Shrew's Shrewdies
1:30 - If rumours about Charli Parcs (nap) are true then he has an excellent chance. He was advised on the preview blog at 10/1 but is now 7/2 - the money has come for this horse and he could be something special but at the prices I'd side with Master Blue Eyes 6/1 or Landofhopeandglory 14/1 e/w
2:10 - Wait for Me 16/1, North Hill Harvey 7/1, or Song Light 25/1 e/w
2:50 - Death Duty could be something special but I'll take him on with Wholestone 7/1 e/w
3:30 - The Cheltenham Gold Cup - Native River 9/2 or Outlander 8/1
Just for fun 1-2-3: Native River - Djakadam - Outlander
4:10 - On The Fringe 11/8
4:50 - no great opinion: Runfordave 8/1 or Coo Star Sivola 16/1 e/w
5:30 - Le Prezien 10/1 e/w or Pairofbrowneyes 16/1 e/w
Race-By-Race Guide
1:30 - Triumph Hurdle, 2m
On ratings Defi Du Seuil would be a good thing here to make it back to back wins for JP McManus and he is deservedly favourite, but this is always a tricky race to call with young horses improving for he better ground.
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| Would Charli Parcs have won the Adonis? |
The best chance of the Irish raiders would be for Mega Fortune who again is a fast improving sort for man of the moment Gordon Elliott. If the race does go to one outside the top 4 in the betting it might well be Landofhopeandglory for Joseph O'Brien. He won this race last year with Ivanovich Gorbotov and this horse has a similar profile having been a winner earlier in the season before fading. He was obviously a very good horse on the flat so improvement for the better ground is not out of the question and he could be a massive price if finding it. Either way you'd expect JP McManus to be disappointed if he doesn't have the winner.
Landofhopeandglory finished ahead of Mega Fortune but behind Bapaume in December. It seems that the progression of the Gordon Elliott horse has been better than that of the other two horses but I'd give Landofhopeandglory an each way squeak.
2:10 - County Handicap Hurdle, 2m1f
The form of last year's supreme novice has repeatedly smacked us in the face enough times this week with Altior, Buveur D'Air, Supersundae all winning and Petit Mouchoir running pretty well. It is hard not to back North Hill Harvey here off the back of that to give Dan Skelton a second winner in this race in as many years.
But there is other good festival form all over this race. Most notably Arctic Fire who was second in Faugheen's Champion Hurdle and was last seen behind Faugheen again at Leopardstown last January. If he retains any of that sort of ability he could be primed for a big run for Willie Mullins and would have to be preferred to Renetti for the trainer who has a good runner in this race.
L'Ami Serge is a bit of an oddball but has run well here and definitely looks more at home over hurdles than fences. Wait for Me came out of Moon Racer's bumper - the form of which hasn't been particularly good this week. Diego Du Charmil won last year's Fred Winter well and has been campaigned fairly honestly in handicaps which means he may not be on the best mark here.
The other juvenile winner at last year's festival was of course Ivanovich Gorbatov who came good or the spring ground for Joseph O'Brien. Apples Jade gave a big plus to that form with her win in the mares hurdle. He doesn't seem to have progressed much in the last year or so but if he can find the same improvement of form for the better ground as he did last year he could easily make a mockery of his mark. Off more appealing marks however are JP McManus' other two horses Winter Escape and De Name Escapes Me, who could both be prepped for a big running.
McManus horses do tend to be overbet in this big handicaps, so it may be better looking at value elsewhere. Other than having a great name, Air Horse One has been progressive this year going up 10lbs for three wins in a row. Harry Fry knows how to place them so I might give him the benefit of the doubt that there's more progression there.
I always like to keep one at the bottom of the weights onside and Song Light was only 2 lengths behind North Hill Harvey here in the Greatwood in November and receives a stone here... the phrase 'well in' springs to mind.
But there is other good festival form all over this race. Most notably Arctic Fire who was second in Faugheen's Champion Hurdle and was last seen behind Faugheen again at Leopardstown last January. If he retains any of that sort of ability he could be primed for a big run for Willie Mullins and would have to be preferred to Renetti for the trainer who has a good runner in this race.
L'Ami Serge is a bit of an oddball but has run well here and definitely looks more at home over hurdles than fences. Wait for Me came out of Moon Racer's bumper - the form of which hasn't been particularly good this week. Diego Du Charmil won last year's Fred Winter well and has been campaigned fairly honestly in handicaps which means he may not be on the best mark here.
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| North Hill Harvey has been tucked away since the Greatwood. Can team Skelton strike again? |
The other juvenile winner at last year's festival was of course Ivanovich Gorbatov who came good or the spring ground for Joseph O'Brien. Apples Jade gave a big plus to that form with her win in the mares hurdle. He doesn't seem to have progressed much in the last year or so but if he can find the same improvement of form for the better ground as he did last year he could easily make a mockery of his mark. Off more appealing marks however are JP McManus' other two horses Winter Escape and De Name Escapes Me, who could both be prepped for a big running.
McManus horses do tend to be overbet in this big handicaps, so it may be better looking at value elsewhere. Other than having a great name, Air Horse One has been progressive this year going up 10lbs for three wins in a row. Harry Fry knows how to place them so I might give him the benefit of the doubt that there's more progression there.
I always like to keep one at the bottom of the weights onside and Song Light was only 2 lengths behind North Hill Harvey here in the Greatwood in November and receives a stone here... the phrase 'well in' springs to mind.
2:50 - Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, 3m
Death Duty is probably the most impressive Irish novice this year and has been dominating the top races over 2m4f in Ireland. He looks really good but Gordon Elliott's comments that he is better than Don Cossack at this stage of his career can be taken with a pinch of salt as the latter horse was much much better over fences. He is top rated but this will be the most gruelling test he has faced to date. 3m is a marathon distance for novices and he hasn't yet had to show the grit required to win this.
Moreover, it's a graveyard for short-priced favourites as it doesn't always reward the horse with the most ability. My preference therefore is for Wholestone whose 4 last runs have been here, three of which have ended in victory over top quality opposition and two of which were over todays distance. He has course distance form and is highly rated and is backable at an each way price. To my mind he's one of the best bets of the festival. If you can get him at a dirty each way price then even better.
Willie Mullins maintains that Augusta Kate would have beaten Death Duty had she not fallen at the last when they met. I'm not so sure but they aren't words to be taken lightly and she could be in the mix if running up to a similar level.
Monalee is another horse to have run well against Death Duty and showed he enjoyed the step up in trip last time out when winning in heavy ground over three miles. There is a possibility he could reverse form if this becomes a slog.
The World's End also ran a good trial for this at Haydock by beating No Hassle Hoff 9 lengths. That takes some doing and would put him 5 lengths ahead of Wholestone if taking that form literally. I will however assume the flat track at Haydock exaggerated the wining margin and that Wholestone's course form s of more value on this occasion. But as always very much prepared to be proven wrong.
3:30 - FEATURE RACE - The Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3m2f
They are all pretty close on ratings and so it comes down to which horse is equipped best and gets the luck on the day. Here are my musings:
Cue Card
Death Duty is probably the most impressive Irish novice this year and has been dominating the top races over 2m4f in Ireland. He looks really good but Gordon Elliott's comments that he is better than Don Cossack at this stage of his career can be taken with a pinch of salt as the latter horse was much much better over fences. He is top rated but this will be the most gruelling test he has faced to date. 3m is a marathon distance for novices and he hasn't yet had to show the grit required to win this.
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| Death Duty - the latest in a line of delightfully named Gigginstown horses |
Moreover, it's a graveyard for short-priced favourites as it doesn't always reward the horse with the most ability. My preference therefore is for Wholestone whose 4 last runs have been here, three of which have ended in victory over top quality opposition and two of which were over todays distance. He has course distance form and is highly rated and is backable at an each way price. To my mind he's one of the best bets of the festival. If you can get him at a dirty each way price then even better.
Willie Mullins maintains that Augusta Kate would have beaten Death Duty had she not fallen at the last when they met. I'm not so sure but they aren't words to be taken lightly and she could be in the mix if running up to a similar level.
Monalee is another horse to have run well against Death Duty and showed he enjoyed the step up in trip last time out when winning in heavy ground over three miles. There is a possibility he could reverse form if this becomes a slog.
The World's End also ran a good trial for this at Haydock by beating No Hassle Hoff 9 lengths. That takes some doing and would put him 5 lengths ahead of Wholestone if taking that form literally. I will however assume the flat track at Haydock exaggerated the wining margin and that Wholestone's course form s of more value on this occasion. But as always very much prepared to be proven wrong.
3:30 - FEATURE RACE - The Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3m2f
They are all pretty close on ratings and so it comes down to which horse is equipped best and gets the luck on the day. Here are my musings:
Cue Card
366 days ago. They head down the hill to the third last; three principle players all in a line: Don Cossack, Cue Card and Djakadam. Pause the tape and what happens? In my view Don Cossack would've won, with Cue Card beating Djakadam into second by about 2 lengths. Others will tell you Cue Card would've gotten the edge over Don Cossack to score a million pound bonus. Others still will tell you that Cue Card would've emptied up the hill to finish a game third. As it happens, Cue Card fell, so we'll never know anything except that Don Cossack was a worthy winner on the day.
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| Cue Card out to show age is no barrier to success |
But now at 11 years of age, Colin Tizzard brings his star - and he is a star - back to Prestbury Park to find out. Now, Cue Card had an absolute fairytale season last year - after a year or two in the wilderness he returned with top class performance after top class performance to follow up a Charie Hall with a Betfair Chase and then win with a King George and he was brilliant. This year, although his phenomenal constitution has led him to victory over Coneygree at Haydock and to an easy win in the Ascot Chase, it is fair to say he has been a little more hit and miss. He won at Ascot with ease and it was brilliant to see him see off the competition by 15 lengths but coming back to the paddock he was one tired horse. I trust connections when they say he is working the house down at home so I fully expect to have him right for the day but even if he is at his absolute peak I question whether he will be fully effective over the Gold Cup trip.
Rewind the tape back again on last years Gold Cup and you'll see that not far behind the leading group is O'Faolin's Boy who ultimately finishes 50+ lengths behind the eventual winner. Moreover, look at the speed at which Don Cossack finishes the race relative to Coneygree for example last year and it looks pretty quick. My theory on the race is that it was actually quite slowly run. Smad Place had made all in an excellent Hennessey win and Cotswold Chase and was the pacesetter for the race, but it seems clear to me by the way he faded at the end that this was not his running. What should have been a strong pace set by Smad was actually fairly pedestrian for a Gold Cup which turned the end of this race into one that suited a speedier horse like Don Cossack (and arguably Djakadam who has won over 2m4f) and allowed him to open up such a big gap between him and his rivals.
Also supporting that position is the finishing position of Don Poli some 10 lengths off Djakadam. Many commented on the ride of Davy Russell holding Don Poli out the back much like he did when winning on Lord Windermere - the expectation being that the pace would be faster than it actually was and that he would be able to pick up the pieces when the stamina of the leading three was called into question. As it happened they didn't go off that fast after all and he had way too much to do to get close to the eventual winner and second. Move forward three weeks and he is finishing 8 lengths ahead of Djakadam at Aintree on a galloping track (and 9 lengths behind Cue Card). Ergo, at a staying trip, Cue Card would want a slow pace to be at maximum effectiveness. He is a speed horse and he backed this up by winning at Ascot over 2m5f last time out... and by a Ryanair Chase win over 2m5f. In fact look at his win portfolio at trips 3m+ and they come at Kempton, Aintree, Haydock and Wetherby - flat galloping speed tracks.
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A young Djakadam prepares for the JLT - can he finally go one better
in racings blue riband?
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The other thing we can ascertain from this reading of last year's race is that Don Poli probably isn't as slow as he looks over a staying trip. That may sound like useless information as Don Poli isn't here. But Djakadam is and Don Poli is a fairly good horse to use to make a point about Djakadam -we'll come back to that in a minute.
Djakadam was not quick enough on the day last year to beat Don Cossack and he didn't outstay Coneygree on another day but he has been good enough twice around this course and distance to beat everything else so has to be considered as a serious contender. It is very possible that there isn't a horse of Don Cossack or Coneygree's standard in this race in which case running to that same mark may very well be good enough to win.
Djakadam came into his first Gold Cup as a progressive 6 year old and was one of the few horses who could put up with Coneygree's relentless gallop on that day. The following season he progressed with a similar level of form until falling in the Cotswold Chase. Connections did a great job in bringing him back for the Festival where he was simply outclassed by Don Cossack. This year his preparation has been different. After winning the Theystes he headed to the Lexus over 3m and was beaten. In fact, you have to go back to January 2015 ) since Djakadam won a chase over 3 miles (whe receiving weight in a handicap). His form since then reads 22F2323.
Like Cue Card, we know that Djakadam can be quick - his form over trips less than 3 miles in comparison reads 11F11 (the falls in both form lines incidentally come at Cheltenham - which is a whole other objection that I'm not as concerned about as I think he's a much sounder jumper nowadays and they were both quite unlucky). You could draw the conclusion that Djakadam is also a speed horse whose natural talent gets him into the places in staying contests. But look back at his run behind Coneygree in what was an attritional race and that doesn't seem fair, but look back at his run behind Don Cossack and actually he gets comprehensively outstayed by a horse who had proven winning form over staying trips.
If I was a supporter of Djakadam for this race, I would argue that the quality of Gold Cup winner that Coneygree and Don Cossack were is not represented here and that may be correct; so Djakadam runs to the same level of form and he wins right?
Well, not exactly - Let's bring back the other Don; Don Poli. Including last years Gold Cup, the two have had 4 head-to-heads with the following results:
| Djakadam | Don Poli | Distance | |
| Cheltenham | 2nd | 3rd | 10l |
| Aintree | 3rd | 2nd | 8l |
| Punchestown | 2nd | 3rd | 2l |
| Leopardstown | 3rd | 2nd | head |
So if we continue the theory that last year's race was slower than it looked on the first circuit and Davy Russell mistimed it on Don Poli then that seems to make sense. You can make an excuse for Djakadam being tired the next time at Aintree and he made a jumping error early which upset his rhythm, but the two runs this season show the two horses to be by on large on a par when Don Poli is ridden prominently. Before being ruled out with a minor injury Don Poli was 20/1 for this.
The other thing to note is that neither horse one these races. They were won by Don Cossack (proven Grade 1 3m+ form), Cue Card (Proven Grade 1 3m+ form on a flat track), Carlingford Lough (All form in Graded chases 3m+) and Outlander, who we will come onto in a minute...In each of those four races Djakadam has either been held up or ridden behind the leaders. At no point in a staying chase has Djakadam been able to head the leader.
Conclusions - Either, Djakadam has been off peak form since last year's Gold Cup and will be produced perfectly on the day by Willie Mullins or at a quick pace set by a grade 1 level staying chaser the standard of Don Poli or higher Djakadam may struggle.
No matter how good a day Willie Mullins had on Thursday, I'm not willing to take 3/1 to find out which.
The caveat to that is that if Djakadam lines up in front and tries to effectively make all... but there are reasons to think that won't happen. One of which is....
Smad Place
Who we don't need to say much about, other than he is a beautiful grey and will most likely be in front to start with. I suspect he will be in front after the first circuit but he is on the downgrade nowadays. Hopefully he'll have a smooth jump round and enjoy himself, but he would be an unlikely winner.
The other of which is....
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| Bristol De Mai |
Who really is also a beautiful grey but is seen to best effect when ridden prominently. He is massively overpriced here but would definitely have wanted a little more rain and potentially a last minute change of venue to Haydock where all of his best form is. That was his first step up to 3m and it is fair to say he improved for it.
He did run well here last year in the JLT, though that form has since not worked out but he is not without an each way chance
Sizing John
Let's bring Don Poli back in again for a second - Don Poli who was only one and half lengths away from winning the Irish Gold Cup against Sizing John. Where Djakadam seemingly struggles to get his head in front in Grade 1 chases, Sizing John improved well from a held up position to come past Don Poli and Empire of Dirt and win.
Up to that point he was mostly well known for finishing second to Douvan umpteen times over much shorter distances. This step up in trip has seemingly suited him well and the fact he is still unexposed, but for my money the form of that race isn't to be taken too seriously. The fact that the pace was set mostly by Road to Riches who is Grand National bound (though a very good 3rd in the 2015 Gold Cup) and would usually be held up suggests it probably wasn't a particularly quick pace and to me it looked that Sizing John simply outpaced them using his credentials as a 2 miler at the end.
Irisih Gold Cup winners also have an abysmal record here mainly due to the proximity of the two races, which were a week closer than normal this year and he still has a lot to prove. He may well do so. But on evidence he is not the one.
The better Irish trial is the Lexus, won by...
Outlander
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| Outlander wins the Lexus |
Perhaps it is because the Irish Gold Cup is in more recent memory but no one seems to be talking up Outlander at all - not even Gordon Elliott.
Whilst with Willie Mullins this horse was very much campaigned at the middle distances (2m4f) usually to quite good effect with a series of placed efforts in high class races but he was always seen as stayer.
His first foray into staying chases came at Punchestown at the end of last year when he was a staying on second to Zabana. This came after a busy season and it looked as though Willie was ready to send him up in trip before his transfer to Gordon Elliott. His first 3 runs this season were much of a muchness over 2m4f, including a defeat to Djakadam in the John Durkan, but then when stepped up in trip again he was able to reverse the form to land the Lexus, giving him form statistics of 21 over 3m+ and both in Grade 1 chases. In fact his route to the Gold Cup is fairly similar to Djakadam's in 2015 coming via the JLT (in which he also fell) which to me says Willie Mullins always had this trip in mind.
He was given an entry in the Grand National before being withdrawn due to the row around UK handicap marks on Irish horses, but that tells me one thing, that he stays. Not only does he stay, he also has enough speed to get past horses at these staying trips - as we saw from him coming from deep in his Lexus win. The doubt about him may be Cheltenham form which reads 6F - but Don Cossacks form read F3 here before his Gold Cup win and the extra distance gives Outlander much more time to organise himself and get into a rhythm. His form around other undulating courses is generally fine, so I think at this pace it will not be a problem.
If they go hard from the front and the horses with stamina question marks fade then he could easily pick through the pack and be victorious here.
But I don't think they will all fade. And the reason I don't is because of a staying superstar:
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If I could own any horse in training it would be Native River -
what a beauty
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Native River
Cue Card and Sizing John have speed, Outlander stays and Djakadam brings guts. They are all contenders and all bring weapons to this battle, but Native River brings an arsenal. It is fair to say that in the Native River fanclub I am vying for chairman so feel free to skip to the next paragraph whilst I declare in no uncertain terms how much I like this horse.
After being narrowly beaten in the four miler by Minella Rocco last year this horse has improved no end. He went on to win at Aintree (a speed track), beating RSA winner Blaklion and dual Ultima win Un Temps Pour Tout in doing so, before following up with a Hennessey win and Welsh National win off of 155 before returning to Newbury to win again, showing on that day that he has speed as well as stamina as he drew away from Le Mercury after the last.
Whilst acknowledging the obvious improvement of the horse many have pointed to the four miler as evidence that he doesn't perform as well at this track - but look back on the race and you see he makes a mistake at the 13th fence and effectively throws away his chance there. With all respect to Mr Legg, Richard Johnson is a completely different proposition and under his guidance (and Aiden Colemans at Newbury the second time) he has jumped absolutely impeccably from the front. The key to this horses progression is allowing him to control the tempo and stride on; using his deadly jumping, turn of foot and endless stamina to grind out races. It is worth pausing to mention Minella Rocco who will now be ridden by big race winning machine Noel Fehily - He is another horse who has improved this season and though he's dispatched of his rider the last two runs I expect a return to Cheltenham could produce a big run in him.
Now it may be the case that Native River doesn't lead and that Smad Place makes the running again. This is what happened in the Hennessey but as soon as Dickie Johnson felt his horse was going better he was able to take it up and lead from the front. Whatever the way the race is run it can be done to suit Native River's tempo and once it is I can't see anything getting passed him. The Denman Chase is a great trial for the Gold Cup having been the stepping stone most recently for Coneygree (and obviously for Denman) and this horse is very much in the same mould as his namesake (although not quite as good). Interestingly Cue Card takes the same route as Kauto Star did when winning his first Gold Cup via the Ascot Chase. It would be a stretch to say that either stablemate are as talented as those two were but it's very much the same dynamic and to my mind that front-running galloping Denman performance of 2008 is exactly what Native River is primed to deliver here. Nothing could live with him on that day, even Kauto Star one of the greatest of all time, and if Native River is allowed to get into his stride in front then he will simply not stop.
If we look at Native River's profile over 3m+ it reads 113321-111. This tells us that a) he is an out and out stayer and b) he is likely progressive (He is still only a 7 year old). The 2nd place came at Cheltenham last year and the other two defeats came on speed tracks against speed horses. The first of which he made novicey jumping errors, the second of which he was beaten by RSA winner Blaklion and Southfield Royale, both of whom he later reversed form with at Aintree and Cheltenham respectively (and later at Newbury again).
Although that form has a lot of 1's in it, including a grade 1 and two Grade 3s we can pick holes in it. It's fair to say the horses he has beaten (albeit when giving away quite a bit of weight) would not be up to this class. It is a fair objection and to me based on that a horse like Outlander is probably the biggest threat. The two are pretty much matched on ratings but I think that this unique test - and it is still unique, suits the front running stayer. The lead will not be easily gained which I think sets the race up more for the stamina types - with Richard Johnson able to push on if he needs to on Native River. The little worry is stable form - Colin Tizzard has had a quiet week with the only real high being Fox Norton's run in the Champion Chase. If Native River fails to fire on the day then Outlander to me is most likely to pick up the pieces.
The Outsiders
The first thing to say is that the market is wrong - the leading three should be a lot closer to the others and as a result there are some very good each way prices at 12/1 or bigger, when really this should be 6/1 the field.
Champagne West
The top of the wild cards on this seasons form is probably Champagne West. His form over 3m+ reads 4F1. He is another horse who will likely go from the front but his wins have come against slower staying national types. I think he has a big job on his hands if trying to stay there in grade 1 company.
More of That
More of That was an exceptional horse and famously is the only horse to down the colours of Annie Power when she has stood up. His chasing career hasn't gone quite to plan but he looked to be showing some sparkle when running well in the Irish Gold Cup. He has place claims on that evidence but is priced pretty short now.
Minella Rocco
The forgotten horse in many ways - Beat Native River under a fantastic ride from Derek O'Connor in last years 4-mile novice chase. Hasn't progressed in the same way but was a good third here in November. Will suit a staying test and could be a dark horse.
Tea For Two
Tea for Two is better around Kempton and although officially he got fairly close to Cue Card on winning distances, in reality is not up to that same level of form. Others preferred.
Irish Cavalier
Ran on well last year to finish 4th but isn't likely to be much closer today.
Saphir Du Rheu
Even Paul Nicholls would be surprised if he won, but stranger things have happened.
In conclusion, I think the most likely winner of the Gold Cup is Native River. There are three proven frontrunners who should set a strong gallop and of all of the horses I think he has the better balance of speed and stamina to pass them and see out the trip. He has shown more progression than Minella Rocco since they last met and with the Champion jockey on board should be able to dictate the tempo in his own way.
Ruby Walsh came alive on Thursday but if he wants to win this I think he needs to get Djakadam in front as early as possible and try to kick on. Both he and Outlander will likely be in behind Native River to begin with and will ask the question of his grade 1 credentials. If they do manage to pass him then they will have to stay there too as this horse has shown he is all grit when headed.
I think Cue Card's chance lies mainly in the hands of others and he would be relying on a slow pace, quicker finish to get home, otherwise I don't see him getting up the hill.
4:10 - Foxhunters Chase - 3m2f
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| On the Fringe bids for the treble treble |
On The Fringe bids for a treble treble - Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown. Arguably this tends to be where he is at his weakest of the three. Usually he comes into this after a poor prep run but this year looked in superb spirits last time out when just touched off by Foxrock. He is short, but you wouldn't be surprised if he did it.
He will have stiff competition though in newcomer to the Foxhunter's scene Wonderful Charm. He has a reasonable course record having finished in midfield in a Ryanair and World Hurdle but showed his best form when stepped up in trip in December 2015. He was off the track most of last season but seems to now have bounced back with a good couple of wins. He will like the good ground and is a big threat to the favourite. Ask the Weatherman in contrast will have been hoping for a bit more rain and the good ground is likely to dent his chances.
Salsify is a past winner of this in 2013 but his best days are likely to be behind him. Pacha Du Polder ran really well under a surprisingly good ride from Victoria Pendleton last year and may be a good one to hit the frame.
The one from Leftfield though is Anseanachai Cliste who comes from the Irish point-to-point scene with a legion of followers and is an unknown quantity.
He will have stiff competition though in newcomer to the Foxhunter's scene Wonderful Charm. He has a reasonable course record having finished in midfield in a Ryanair and World Hurdle but showed his best form when stepped up in trip in December 2015. He was off the track most of last season but seems to now have bounced back with a good couple of wins. He will like the good ground and is a big threat to the favourite. Ask the Weatherman in contrast will have been hoping for a bit more rain and the good ground is likely to dent his chances.
Salsify is a past winner of this in 2013 but his best days are likely to be behind him. Pacha Du Polder ran really well under a surprisingly good ride from Victoria Pendleton last year and may be a good one to hit the frame.
The one from Leftfield though is Anseanachai Cliste who comes from the Irish point-to-point scene with a legion of followers and is an unknown quantity.
4:50 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle, 2m4f
Nothing has spoken more about Martin Pipe's skill as a trainer this week than the performance of his one time protégée Gordon Elliot (except maybe the good performances of his son David). Gordon runs Automated and Runfordave in a race he would sorely love to win.
I don't have any massive opinions on this race but it would be nice to see Gordon bag another winner.
Lizzie Kelly is a good ride for Coo Star Sivola and Harry Cobden is an obvious good jockey for Dadsintrouble. Rather Be also catches the eye under Charlie Deustch.
I don't have any massive opinions on this race but it would be nice to see Gordon bag another winner.
Lizzie Kelly is a good ride for Coo Star Sivola and Harry Cobden is an obvious good jockey for Dadsintrouble. Rather Be also catches the eye under Charlie Deustch.
5:30 - The Grand Annual Chase - 2m
Traditionally a race that enables the bookies to make some of their money back - Paul Nicholls won this last year with Solar Impulse who interestingly runs again in different colours and under a new trainer but I'd pick Le Prezien to win it for him this year. He was kept back from taking on Altior in the Arkle and could be of a good mark coming into this as a novice. It will be intriguing to see how his other runner and former champion chaser Dodging Bullets fares. Now way down in the weights he has to stand a chance if showing any of his old sparkle.
Dandridge has been tipped by every man and his dog so will probably finish a staying on 7th. Un Beau Roman could be well set up for this based on previous course form, but I'd slightly prefer Pairofbrowneyes despite a 4lb rise.
Traditionally a race that enables the bookies to make some of their money back - Paul Nicholls won this last year with Solar Impulse who interestingly runs again in different colours and under a new trainer but I'd pick Le Prezien to win it for him this year. He was kept back from taking on Altior in the Arkle and could be of a good mark coming into this as a novice. It will be intriguing to see how his other runner and former champion chaser Dodging Bullets fares. Now way down in the weights he has to stand a chance if showing any of his old sparkle.
Dandridge has been tipped by every man and his dog so will probably finish a staying on 7th. Un Beau Roman could be well set up for this based on previous course form, but I'd slightly prefer Pairofbrowneyes despite a 4lb rise.
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