The Wandering Shrew - Dubai World Cup Night Preview

California Chrome - a star attraction in the Dubai World Cup

The Dubai World Cup Night featuring the world’s richest horse features a stellar cast with showdowns between Tryster and Intilaaq in the turf and California Chrome against Frosted in the World Cup. The card also features King George winner Postponed and Hong Kong Vase winner Highland Reel in the Classic and old favourite Sole Power who runs his 56^th race in the Sprint. It’s all about the speed and we should hopefully see some close races.

We’ll be back on Sunday night with a preview of the Irish National

Shrew’s Shrewdies

Race Time – Likely Winner – Each Way at a Price

12:20 – Maftool 6/1 – One Man Band 10/1

12:55 – Vazirabad 11/8 (nap) – Star Empire 12/1

1:35 – Vale Dori 4/1 – Lani 14/1

2:10 – Peniaphobia 6/1

2:45 – Muarrab 11/2 – Super Jockey 6/1

3:45 – Intilaaq 5/2 - Flamboyant 33/1                                                                                                                             

4:20 – Highland Reel 4/1

5:00 – California Chrome 11/8 – Special Fighter 14/1

Race By Race Guide

12:20 – Godolphin Mile, 1m

Maftool can give Godolphin a wining start

I’m a sucker for course and distance form and hot favourite Marking is yet to have the two combined but has won over a mile and has won here at Meydan over a shorter trip. Maftool goes well here and is yet to be unplaced. His latest outing over CD was a win over Cool Cowboy who has since franked the form following up in a good group 3. He was allowed to dominate on that day and likely won’t be afforded the luxury today. One Man Band has performed brilliantly all carnival and has won here 7 times already – maybe one too far and others better aimed but worth a shot at the prices.

Sloane Avenue was touched off into 2^nd last year when travelling round the long way – will have to come from a wide stall again and challenge late, but this should be run at a true pace and he should be thereabouts come the end.

12:55 – Dubai Gold Cup, 2m

Vazirabad looks the one to beat in the Gold Cup

Keeping it simple, Vazirabad is the best horse in the race here and will take a lot of beating and he holds Manatee to the tune of 7 lengths based on their run in October. He should cope with the ground well.

The race in previous years though has seen success for UK trained horses and the best chance this year is for Goodwood Cup winner Big Orange who lines up for Michael Bell – he has a bit to find but could be a threat if the favourites weaken. After that we’d be clutching at straws, but Star Empire is preferred over others for a place having won here 3 times before, I would expect him to reverse form with Ceratech today.

1:35 – UAE Derby, 1m1f

Polar River defends an impressive unbeaten run

A small field for this headed by hot favourite Polar River. The filly is 4/4 having picked up the Guineas and Oaks already. Last time out she was less than impressive though in just seeing off Vale Dori though into a 3/4l second. Of the two Vale Dori therefore has shown the most progressive profile and it may be difficult to split them today.

Of the others, the one who looks unexposed is Japenese runner Lani who although losing last time out is a better horse than that and could well bounce back here.

2:10 – Sprint, 5f

Prix De L’Abbaye winner Goldream was a disappointing 7^th on his first start since landing in Meydan. His best form before that had all been on good to firm and you’d be inclined to give him another chance to acclimatise if it weren’t for downbeat bulletins from his trainer. Assuming he isn’t hedging, then he’s one for the note book but opposable today.

56 not out for Eddie Lynam's super sprinter

2015 winner, Sole Power, has been a superstar for many years and I’d love to see him win this again, but I’d expect others to be better than him nowadays. More attractive is last year’s second Peniaphobia who seems to have been consistent since then running well in Hong Kong throughout the winter.

He has a direct form line with Ryan Moore’s mount Not Listenin’tome who was a length third to him in December and will be right in the mix. At the prices to Ertijaal who provides the biggest threat and superb course form coming into the race off the back of three wins.

Lady Shipman is clearly talented but this requires a big step up

2:45 – Golden Shaheen Sprint, 6f

X Y Jet is rapid. He will go from the front and try to make every yard. His frontrunning style may make him vulnerable here. One horse who could pick him up is last year’s second Super Jockey who has been aimed at this and has shown improvement in his last couple of runs.

Rich Tapestry and Muarrab have reversed form with one another last two times out, with the latter coming out on top the latest run – recency bias would prefer the latter but it depends which Rich Tapestry turns up. Reynaldothewizard was third in that race when not fully giving his running, but even at best I think would be held by Muarrab

Confrontation has a bit to find on these but has been running over further – the drop to 6f may well suit.

3:45 – Dubai Turf, 1m1f

Tryster comes into this as one of the most visually impressive performers worldwide and will likely go off favourite based on his exceptional form since coming to Meydan in February. His turn of foot is lethal and he’s sure to go close.

Tryster can put a race to bed in a matter of strides

Intailaaq has some excellent form on good to firm ground in the UK. He was disappointing in last year’s 2000 Guineas but won his two starts well after that. There is a huge unknown as to how he has acclimatised but I think he could be 10 lengths below his most recent start and still go close here.

The Ryan Moore factor will need to come into full effect to bring Real Steel up to the same standard as the principles, but doesn’t have the world to find and could be disputing the finish.

The Corsican has the form to be in the mix up here especially based on his victory over Sky Hunter at Newbury, but this is an altogether different affair and there are a lot of unknowns to take a punt on.

Very Special holds Euro Charline on good course and distance form and might be fancied for minor honours if it weren’t for the slightly better course and distance form of Forries Waltz. Flamboyant has not yet run at Meydan, but is progressive and could well outrun both of them at a better price.

4:20 – Dubai Sheema Classic, 1m4f

King George winner Postponed gives Roger Varian a great chance of winning this race. Victory in his prep race over the consistent Dariyan suggests he has transferred his form across from the UK. He may have to be back to his King George winning best though to fend off two hot rivals in what will be a thrilling race.

Highland Reel strikes a pose -

Can he follow up on his HK Vase win? 

Highland Reel comes here off the back of a top victory beating Flintshire to land the Hong Kong Vase last time out and will be one of Ryan Moore’s best rides of the night. But they are also joined by the exciting Japanese prospect Duramente. He has only raced 4 times but has been impressive coming home in front in the last three, including a win over Real Steel last season – it will be interesting to see how he goes in the turf.

The winner should come from those three – Highland Reel and Duramente look to be more progressive than Postponed, but don’t have the course form. Duramente has a better draw on the inside but Highland Reel will likely get to the front earlier and has the right jockey to keep him there.

5:00 – FEATURE RACE: Dubai World Cup, 1m2f

Keen Ice is the only horse to have beaten last year’s top rated horse in the world American Pharoah and that alone draws some attention to him. He also beat Frosted on that day too and on evidence of what Frosted has achieved since shows that his victory over the best horse in the world was perhaps in small part down to him being a quality horse rather than pure fluke. He hasn’t been at his best since then but is sure to get a good spin round under Ryan Moore from stall 1. Frosted’s prep on the other hand has been good, transferring his good form to win his first race in Meydan by an impressive 5 lengths.

California Chrome has another wide draw to contend with

to go one better than last year

For either to win here today would cause another huge upset to an American favourite as the exceptional California Chrome lines up to contest a race he was second in last year. I have never been to Meydan so don’t know where the car park is situated, but assuming it’s outside the track by the 10f starting post, that’s where California Chrome is drawn. His pure form is good enough to be best in the race and he won well in his prep – but the draw, as it was last year could be the difference between 1^st and 2^nd  although I don’t expect this to be too much of a disadvantage against Frosted who is drawn 9.

Last year he was beaten by 14/1 shot Prince Bishop and it may be worth looking at another bigger priced horse to take him on with today. Hoppertunity lines up for Bob Baffert and being trained by the twice winning trainer gives him a shout, but you’d expect California Chrome to hold form from 2 starts ago.

Mubtaahij won last years UAE derby here by an impressive 8 lengths, but has so far failed to follow up – his two appearances at Meydan recently have been less than inspiring and it would require a big return to form under Christophe Soumillon. Mshawish also ran well here last year only 5 lengths behind Solow who has since proven he’s a top quality performer. He has about 5-7 lenths to find on the principles top form, but should go well for Frankie Dettori out of a nice low draw.

Gun Pit seems to be a progressive Dubawi Colt but was held by Special Fighter on last appearance. The latter appears to go one way or the other and his form when sixth behind Frosted can be dismissed if bouncing back to the form of his last run here.

Vadamos bombed out on his sole venture abroad so far when finished 13/13 on Champions Day at Ascot. Trainer respected, but a big ask first time on the surface.