The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival 2016 Day 2

Day 1 delivered all that it promised with sensational performances from Douvan and Vroum Vroum Mag. Min ran well in the opener but the impressive Altior had just improved too much past him and stayed on up the hill like an absolute machine. In the handicaps, Holywell (who incidentally now looks a great weight for the grand national) ran well in second behind Un Temps Pour Tout, Southfield Royale could’ve done with the race being 4 furlongs shorter when fading into fourth and Willow’s Saviour summed the day up, falling at the second last when just about to get into contention. As mentioned yesterday, a bet on John’s Spirit in Thursdays Brown Advisory Handicap wouldn’t be a bad idea , given the seemingly miraculous return to form of Holywell.

Annie Power claims an emotional victory

on day 1

The story of the day though was the super mare Annie Power, who justified favouritism to blitz her rivals from the front and pull off an emotional win over her rivals to land the Champion Hurdle. Identity Thief was hugely disappointing back in 6^th and the others just never got up with the electric pace on the front end. Huge credit also to Nicky Henderson, who’s My Tent or Yours returned from 2 years off to run into an excellent second place.

Today’s Champion Chase today is a battle of old versus new with three former champions taking on the contender to the throne. The mighty Un De Sceaux looks like he may only have himself and his own jumping to beat, but this is the hardest field he will have faced with returning champions Dodging Bullets, Sire De Grugy and the once unbeatable Sprinter Sacre in opposition – the return of any of these champions to the winners enclosure would be sure to raise the roof as much as, if not more than an Un De Sceaux victory.

The supporting card sees what is probably the closest Britain vs Ireland shoot-out of the week in the RSA where No More Heroes takes on the classy 2014 World Hurdle winner More of That who has taken to fences well. The exciting Yanworth goes as a short priced favourite in the Neptune; the usual suspects return in the Cross Country chase and there are two ultra competitive handicap hurdles before the day rounds off with the champion bumper.

Shrew’s Shrewdies

1:30 – Yanworth 11/8 – O O Seven 20/1 e/w

2:10 – No More Heroes 9/4 – Blaklion 10/1 e/w

2:50 – Baoulet Delaroque 10/1 e/w and/or Baron Alco 20/1 e/w

3:30 – Un de Sceaux should win at 4/6 but I’ve talked myself into Sprinter Sacre 5/1 - God’s Own 25/1 e/w or Sire De Grugy 16/1 e/w

4:10- Josie’s Orders 11/4 (Nap) – Ballyboker Bridge 12/1 e/w

4:50- Diego Du Charmil 7/1 (because I’ve backed him antepost), Fixe Le Kap 12/1, Harley Rebel 22/1

5:30- No real opinion…. Augusta Kate 5/1 to party with Shearer and Ant and Dec when she bolts up or New To This Town 10/1

 Race By Race Guide

1:30 – Neptune Novice Hurdle, 2m5f

Yanworth was super impressive when drawing clear of the field and showing an awesome turn of foot on trials day, even more so considering that in second was Shantou Village who is well fancied in the Albert Bartlett on Friday. He looks like an above average performer for this. The race looks to be a two horse race at the head of the market between him and Yorkhill who was diverted to this earlier in the week rather than taking on Min in the Supreme.  Yorkhill has done nothing wrong and comes into this unbeaten. On ratings he is within 2lbs of the favourite and will put it up to him, but the course form and the visual impression Yanworth left make him difficult to oppose. I’d expect it to be between the two of them for the forecast.

Of the rest A Toi Phil has the most proven form and looks decent each way, however looking at the prices there’s not much between him and O O Seven who chased home Yorkhill last time out and if for whatever reason the favourite does flop, he seems a nice price to run well for Nicky Henderson. Bello Conti is highly unexposed and looks the one most likely to find improvement.

2:10 – RSA Novice Chase, 3m

This is a good renewal!

The subplot to the week, the ‘Prestbury Cup’ a competition between Ireland and GB for the most winners will be decided by the outcome of races like this. Although this is not strictly a two horse race the expectation is that No More Heroes for Ireland and More of That for team GB will be the ones to battle this out. Both have jumped exceptionally so far and both have beaten everything put in their way. Over hurdles More of That was ultra-impressive when beating Annie Power to land the World Hurdle before injury took him out for the 2014/15 season. He comes into this 4/4 at Cheltenham and was even given a tentative entry in the Gold Cup earlier in the year. The way he takes to his fences is visually stunning and wonderfully economical. The worry is that he hasn’t run for the last 95 days and that does raise one or two question marks, but judging by Holywell’s run on Tuesday, Jonjo O’Neill has his horses right where he wants them and this horse has run well off a break before - he’ll take all the beating.

No More Heroes though could well be exceptional and on official ratings is 5lb better off than More of That on what he’s done so far. The form is rock solid having beaten Rule the World and Monksland. His run here last year over hurdles was disappointing but he looks a different horse over fences and certainly looked the part when schooling alongside Gold Cup favourite Don Cossack two weeks ago. He has slightly more experience than More of That and although More of That could improve passed him, he has to be the selection based on current evidence.

These two should battle it out but there is also a lot of depth in the race. Nigel Twiston-Davies sends Blaklion who won well at Wetherby last month – he comes into this slightly more experienced than the principles but is held by See You At Midnight on their 1^st and 2^nd here at the New Years Day meeting. The former is rated right up there with the top two in the market but I can’t get out of my head how disappointing he was when pulling up in last year’s Albert Bartlett. The latter has had a very nice preparation for this, slowly building up, winning at Cheltenham and then winning a quiet three runner race with no bother three weeks ago. He has one way of going though which is from the front and the feeling is this will set the race up for one or two to stay past him.

Vyta Du Roc may well have won last years Albert Bartlett if not for a last fence blunder that stopped him in his tracks. His form is pretty solid having beaten Tuesday’s 4 miler winner Minella Rocco last time out and he makes a lot of each way appeal despite having a bit to find against these.

2:50 – Coral Handicap Cup, 2m5f

Diamond King looks like he’s been laid out for this by Gordon Elliott and the jockey booking of Davy Russell but the handicapper may have been a bit harsh on him. I expect that he’ll be thereabouts though. Rock the Kasbah under the same ownership has also looked good this season putting a halt to Baron Alco’s winning streak last time out. Baron Alco would be preferred to reverse the form at the weights and on better ground.

The handicapper has been a little more lenient on Willie Mullins’ horses of which Arbre De Vie looks the most likely. Blazer ran superbly at Leopardstown before flopping in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury – if he returns back to the pre-betfair form then he surely stands a big chance here.

Politologue lines up for last year’s winning connections, he won well last time out and found only Barter’s Hill to good the previous time. He catches the eye, as does stablemate Bauloet Delaroque who sneaks in near the bottom of the handicap. He beat Value at Risk last time out and makes a lot of appeal.

3:30 – FEATURE RACE: Queen Mother Champion Chase, 2m

This promises to be a great renewal of the race with an odds-on but volatile favourite Un De Sceaux at the centre of it. When he has jumped round he has won, including an excellent 7 length victory in the 2015 Arkle. The problem is that amongst his 5 chase wins are 2 falls – albeit both on seasonal debuts. His jumping style is breath-taking and leaves very little margin for error. He only has one way of going which is from the front and it’ll be a case of ‘catch me if you can’ – the plus for punters is that his Ascot run last time out when beating Sire De Grugy in a classy manner showed a lot more maturity and he is very much the one to beat.

For the first time in a race though he may not have everything his own way up front.  Special Tiara has always been an excellent frontrunner and if he can keep up with the favourite in the early stages may well upset the rhythm of the race and put his jumping under pressure. Although his form has been good (placed in this last year and a contentious 2^nd to Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek) it is difficult to see him as more than a decent place play.

Sprinter Sacre at Lambourn: Connections are bullish the

'black aeroplane' is back to somewhere near his best

The possible angle to oppose Un De Sceaux therefore is that if his rhythm is unsettled something may come from off the pace to pick him off. Here is where the previous winners of the race come in to play – Sire De Grugy seems held on Ascot form, Dodging Bullets has missed most of the season with injury and was far below best on return, but it is fair to say that the most popular winner of the race would be Sprinter Sacre.

Wind back to the 2013 Champion Chase and Sprinter was by far and away the greatest horse I have seen. His official rating that season hit a dizzying 188 which would see him give the best of Un De Sceaux’s form a 20lb beating. After pulling up with a heart problem in the winter of that year and spending two years in the wilderness it looked like we wouldn’t see him again. There was a little promise when returning last season with a decent second behind Dodging Bullets, but further frustration when pulling up at Cheltenham. This season though, the horse has taken another step forward – He looked like a new horse again when landing the Schloer Chase in November and we saw an entirely different side to him when grinding out a victory after the last against Sire De Grugy at Kempton. The ride of the race wasn’t ideal for him that day but did show that the horse wanted it and was willing to deliver.

Last season, Un De Sceaux did not improve for better ground when winning the Arkle. If he maintains the same level of form he ran to at Ascot last time out then Sprinter Sacre’s Kempton and Cheltenham runs earlier this season are only 1lb below him. The key to Sprinter Sacre having a chance in this race is to try to win the race at the top of the hill, using his mammoth stride to push to the lead coming down the hill. Un De Sceaux will almost certainly stay better up it, but if he can get far enough ahead here that is where he can win it. After witnessing Nicky Henderson bring back My Tent of Yours to run into a excellent 2^nd yesterday, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Sprinter can eek out an extra couple of pounds improvement and win this, especially as we don’t know how Un De Sceaux will react under pressure. I’m not expecting another 19 length victory but if he shows the guts he did to beat Sire De Grugy at Kempton then he has a chance.

Of course, he may just be outclassed and his form may have dipped since December we just don’t know. Either way, I want him to win. He is the best horse I’ve seen in my lifetime and there will not be a dry eye in the house if he can finish ahead.

Sire De Grugy is also a deservedly popular horse – I think his time may have come this season when winning the Tingle Creek, I expect him to run well and maybe he could benefit from the others tearing lumps out of eachother up front – I wouldn’t be surprised if he won - but I prefer Sprinter Sacre for this. That said, he's a great each way price at 16/1 and I'd take that for him hitting the frame.

At a bigger price it is likely that God’s Own will find better form now back on spring ground and although he has a lot to find against these he could certainly pick up the pieces if the race comes apart or a couple of the others underperform.

It’s also worth mentioning Somersby as a bit of a legend, now taking part in his 8^th consecutive and surely final Cheltenham Festival – a super horse and great servant to connections!

4:10 – Cross Country Chase, 3m6f

For the first time, this race now takes place off of level weights. All of the cross country form so far this year points to Josie’s Orders who has to be the one to beat here. However the weight angle means that horses that have previously been in behind may have a better chance of getting on terms with him.

Any Currency is one that will benefit from being off of level weights. He ran a stinker last time but a return to previous form should see him go close. Sire Collenges and Quantativeeasing have both run well here over the years, but its expected they’ll be slightly below the grade.

Cantlow looks decent at a price but was beaten in Punchestown by Ballybroke Bridge who shapes like a likely sort to run well.

A victory for Balthazar King would bring the house down. Already a highly popular horse after his

Balthazar King beating Big Shu in 2014

wins in this in 2012 and 2014 and Grand National 2^nd in the same year, hearts where in mouths when he fell in the 2015 National and was hit by Ballycasey on the way through. Thankfully he emerged from the green screens, sore with cracked ribs but alive. The fact he has made it to the race is a minor miracle in and of itself. I’ll leave him alone at  the price but can’t wait to see him go around his favourite course.
A word also for Uncle Junior who returns as a 15 year old for Willie Mullins.

4:50 – Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, 2m

I know absolutely nothing about Diego Du Charmil but I’ve backed him antepost anyway. Paul Nicholls is a master of bringing over well handicapped French horses and winning at the festival and its worth the risk that this is another. All the vibes make it sound as though he may be good enough so I’ll stick with him as the selection.

The problem is there isn’t much evidence to go on. Where there is Jaleo has good form against a lot of other runners and is appealing on that. Harley Rebel gets into this off the back of his win on Saturday and subsequently looks well handicapped if sufficiently rested up.

Gordon Elliott has a good record in this race and Campeador may run well, but is a low price and high in the weights, so others preferred. At the top of the weights however is Fixe Le Kap who held a Triumph Hurdle entry before being switched to this. It’s a frankly weird move as he would’ve been 7lbs superior to any competition in that race and it seems odd to give up a grade 1 entry to be here. Would have to assume he’s well enough handicapped to win this.

Akavit looks an interesting runner who should improve for good ground and there are a few others who make appeal, but it’s a bit of a lottery beyond that!

5:30 – Champion Bumper, 2m

This is an absolute mess of a race in which nothing has really emerged from the pack.

Cheltenham may see the famous

celebration if Augusta Kate can win it!

The obvious one, and the one that will steal the headlines if she does it is Augusta Kate owned by Graham Wylie, Alan Shearer, Ant and Dec and Lee Westwood, she caught the eye when flying clear in her bumper debut back in Listowel. She has since impressively won a bumper in Navan and despite doing very little at home could well be a flying machine. Mullins is 2/2 with his star mares and maybe she can be the third with Limini still to come as a hot favourite for the Mares Novice race on Thursday.

Other than her, Willie Mullins proclaimed to not have much for this race, so only runs another 6… of which Avenir D’Une Vie seems to be the first choice.

I like New to This Town who has recently been purchased by the Harringtons.