Day 1: Champion Hurdle Day (a.k.a. the 2nd annual Willie Mullins Day!)
In terms of depth this is the best days racing in the entire
calendar, in the entire world. In 2015 we bore witness to the highest quality winners
and the most dramatic of all storylines. Before the day had begun, it had been
dubbed as the inaugural ‘Willie Mullins Day’ with favourites Douvan, Un De
Sceaux, Faugheen and Annie Power running in the respective graded races on the day.
After Douvan and Un De Sceaux duly bolted up, the bookies were running for
cover as Faugheen lead home a Mullins 1-2-3 in the Champion Hurdle.
They stood to lose a reported (and therefore exaggerated)
£80million held by punters in accumulators if Annie Power – a near certainty
against inferior opposition – won the mares hurdle. Two furlongs out she drew
clear of the field, bookmakers contemplating their doom and an impossible
deficit to make up, she approached the last with the race at her mercy and then…
“Annie Power is down!” – I will never hear a collective shock like it again –
taking off too early she hit the deck giving Ruby Walsh no chance and the
bookies were saved! Most importantly though, she got up straight away and ran
out to win convincingly at Punchestown several weeks later… Incidentally Willie
Mullins still won the race with his second string Glen’s Melody to make it a
historic four-timer thus beginning what would be a record breaking festival.
Champion Hurdle Day 2016 promises to be no less dramatic and
no less Willie Mullins-like, though some of the story has already taken place.
Two of last year’s players Douvan and Annie Power line up again and they are
joined by the talking horse of the season Min, in the festival opener. But it
is the absence of Faugheen, who was withdrawn from the Champion Hurdle with a
minor injury only three weeks ago when an odds-on antepost favourite, which
sets today’s story. His late defection has meant that Annie Power, previously
destined for the mares hurdle, now steps up to take on the championship race
for Mullins and owner Rich Ricci; receiving no less than 7lbs mares allowance
from her competitors. What a story of redemption that would be if she can
finish in front! This leaves the spot in the mares hurdle open to Vroum Vroum
Mag – who is a more than handy second string for Mullins/Ricci and will take
all the beating. So what was a Min-Douvan-Faugheen-Annie Power accumulator, is
now Min-Douvan-Annie Power-Vroum Vroum Mag… it is slightly more risky and at a
slightly better price, but what a story to be part of it comes off! Load up the
wheelbarrow! The dream is alive! The four timer is on!
Shrew’s Shrewdies
Race Time – Win Selection
– Each Way at a Price
1:30 – Min 6/4 – Buever D’Air 6/1
2:10 – Douvan 1/3 – Vaniteux 7/1 - forecast
2:50- Carole’s Destrier 12/1 -
Hollywell 15/2 or Beg to Differ 10/1
3:30- Identity Thief 13/2 – Sempre Medici 28/1 or Camping Ground 20/1
4:10 – Vroum Vroum Mag 11/10 (NAP) – Polly Peachum 6/1 – Forecast
4:50 – Southfield Royale 7/1 – Ballychorus 12/1
5:30 – Killala Quay 22/1 – Willow’s Saviour 8/1
The fun bet of the day is
the Willie Mullins accumulator of Min, Douvan, Annie Power, Vroum Vroum
Mag, or just Min, Douvan and Vroum Vroum - more for the sense of being part of
an occasion if it comes off rather than from a financial perspective!
Race By Race Guide
1:30 – Supreme Novice
Hurdle, 2m
Min has been the antepost favourite for this since before he
even raced in England, which is perhaps the problem with backing him in this race.
Mullins has lead Rich Ricci owned horses to victory in this in the last 3 years
with Douvan, Vautour and Champagne Fever and there is more than an element of
this reflected in his price as opposed to what the horse has actually achieved.
The trainer too has publically stated that he has not shown as much as Douvan
and Vautour up to this point… All that being said what he has shown on form
suggests he is up there and it would take a brave one to think Willie Mullins
won’t have improved him for today.
The main threat to the favourite comes from the Nicky
Henderson trained duo of Altior and Buveur D’Air, who on
ratings have both perhaps shown a little more than the favourite. On ratings Altior
is the better of the two, but the suspicion is Buveur D’Air will be peaking
just in time for this and is most likely the one to put it up to Min.
The other form line to be wary of is from 2015’s Champion
Bumper. Last year’s renewal was high quality form and from that Supersundae
and Vigil look like decent each way prospects. 2014’s winner Silver
Concorde is less appealing having not taken to hurdles as well.
You should always forgive a horse one bad run and Bellshill’s
run at Leopardstown was a stinker. However, unbeaten up to that point,
its not beyond the realm of possibility he can improve again here and could be
good each way value at 14/1. The same could apply to the obviously talented Tombstone
who has been touched off into second on his last two outings – The drop
back to 2m may suit, especially staying on up the hill.
Of the ones at bigger prices Pengali Pavillion looked
a decent prospect at the start of the season. Formerly finished sixth in Treves
first Arc win, has Cheltenham form in the book and can stay well running on
into a place, assuming Min makes the running.
2:10 – Arkle Novice
Chase, 2m
 |
| Will Douvan do it over fences? |
Of the four Mullins favourites on day 1, Douvan (right)
is the most obvious winner. Near perfect in the Supreme Novice last year he has
taken to chasing admirably, despite clouting the top of a couple of fences. I
can forgive him that and he is the most confident leg of the Mullin’s
accumulator. Will likely make all and won’t be beaten.
However, unless you’re happy to risk the mortgage on what is
virtually an interest rate at 4/11, the temptation is to look for each way
value in the race. Sizing John followed Douvan home in 3rd in the Supreme last
year and over fences at Christmas – Cheltenham form is a plus, but Vaniteux
seems to run consistently and is on form the second best horse in the
race. It would be disappointing were he not to give his running. The
Game Changer makes some limited appeal and Fox Norton may be the one
to hit the front two at a big price if the others don’t really turn up.
2:50 – Ultima
Handicap Chase, 3m1f
The Druids Nephew picked up this prize last year as a
stepping stone to the Grand National, where he was unlucky slithering on
landing 5 out when leading. The fact that this race is a stepping stone to The
National shows how much of a stayers race this is. One horse who will
definitely be wanting to show off his national credentials here is Holywell.
If the ground had come up good last year he would’ve been my selection
for the Gold Cup – as it was he finished an admirable 4th. He also
won this race in 2014 as well as the Pertemps in 2013 – in other words – he has
festival form in spades and is easily better than this race. That said, I
watched him run last time out and he looked like he was never travelling. Now,
either, the horse is now on the descent after a great career and is thrown in
here to see how he goes, or this is a big fat plot job. As he is trained by
Jonjo O’Neill, one has to assume the latter and he is therefore impossible not
to back, in the full knowledge that this could be the one time a Jonjo horse is
handicapped properly – This may also be a pick me up for the big day in April.
If he does bolt up however, I would strongly advise straight away backing
John’s Spirit in the Brown Advisory (4:10 on Thursday) as I’d expect a similar
ploy to be in play from Jonjo there.
Of course, the other reason Holywell could be in the race is to ensure that there is a better race for Jonjo's other runner Beg To Differ, who comes into this under the radar and may go well off of a nice weight.
Of course, the other reason Holywell could be in the race is to ensure that there is a better race for Jonjo's other runner Beg To Differ, who comes into this under the radar and may go well off of a nice weight.
But to return to assuming this season’s form isn’t just
there to dupe us… Out Sam has been tipped up by many to be the bet to win ‘any
race he runs in’ at the festival. He is certainly talented and progressive
having won his last two starts and perhaps the best handicapped horse in the
race. But, both wins came in small runner fields and it is a big ask for a
novice to step into festival handicap company. He may very well win and his
weight looks appealing but his only other Cheltenham appearance ended in a
fall; at the price others have to be looked at.
Theatre Guide has run very well this season, recently picking
up a big prize at Kempton – the resulted hike in the weights though means that
this looks difficult for him. Un Temps Pour Tout makes a lot
appeal at a decent price. He has run consistently this season and looks like he
will step up for the spring ground. Kruzhlinin is another who makes
appeal and comes in off the back of a great win first time out for Phillip
Hobbs; one expects that this is a Grand National stepping stone for him also.
If the race were run in October I’d like The
Young Master a lot, but can’t help but remember the poor run in last
years RSA when going off in a prominent position and ultimately failing to get
home. He is trained by last year’s winning trainer, Neil Mulholland, who also
runs Carole’s
Destrier who is a progressive sort who seemed to improve last time out
when stepped up in trip. It’s a big ask under the weight, but I think he has
the experience, ran an ok fourth on his only attempt around Cheltenham and has
a trainer who knows how to do it.
Of the rest, lightly raced Morning Assembley could
very well be a good one and makes appeal as one of the less exposed animals in
the race.
I also have to mention Katenko who is a horse I adore but
is up against it today – will get a few of my sentimental pounds each way
anyway.
3.30 – FEATURE RACE: Champion
Hurdle, 2m
 |
Can the mare lay the memories of last year to rest in the
style of a champion?
|
The defection of Faugheen means that this actually becomes a
lot more competitive and a more interesting puzzle!
If Min and Douvan duly oblige in the opening two races then
all eyes will shift to Annie Power (left) to make it 3/4 for
Walsh/Mullins/Ricci. The mare was supplemented late for this and the fact that
it is an afterthought makes her an unattractive favourite. That being said, she
has always been obviously talented. Just touched off in the 2014 World Hurdle
over 3m and having the mares race at her mercy last year, she obviously has
good course form and a step down to two miles is a plus assuming she still
retains her speed. The fact that she is getting 7lbs from her male counterparts
also makes her an attractive proposition, but she is just too short.
Mullins also runs Nichols Canyon and Sempre
Medici. The former, shocked the racing world when downing stablemate
Faugheen fair and square in the Morgiana hurdle, since then however Faugheen
turned the tables leaving Nichols Canyon to trot home a weary 3rd in
the Irish Champion. On the early form, Nichols Canyon would be the best horse
in the race however the suspicion is that the Leopardstown race has taken a lot
out of the horse and his season has perhaps been left there.
He has always been shown to best effect when making the
running and I would assume this will be the tactic here. He will likely be
taken on up front by Camping Ground and Lil
Rockerfeller who will both want to make use of their proven staying
credentials. The former is very interesting if taking to the two mile test. Making it an a test from the front will play into his favour but
ultimately the season may catch up with him before the race is out. If he comes
out in the parade and looks a picture I may change my mind, but happy to oppose
for now.
Sempre Medici remains interesting as one who may possibly be
peaking at just the right time.
Nicky Henderson runs 5 in opposition, much like a man
throwing spaghetti at a wall and hoping something sticks. My Tent Or Yours falls
under the bracket of ‘comeback king’ – in a season where we have seen old
favourites rejuvenated with Cue Card, Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy, Bob’s
Worth and hopefully Balthazar King in the cross country tomorrow, return from
injuries and years in the wilderness to land decent prizes, it wouldn’t require
too much imagination to see him capping that storyline off with what would be a
famous win. On pure form he is the best horse in the race – however, that form
is two years old and to be asked to win this first time out is a huge ask. His
racecourse gallops alongside stablemate Hargam have been encouraging though
sources are quick to warn that he may well have been carrying less weight, if
so it is hard to see him getting the fitness required for this. His price may
represent a little each way value in a weak renewal, but others have to be
preferred to improve past what he can deliver. The fact Barry Geraghty choses
to ride him is a big negative for Hargam.
Hargam’s form ties in directly with stablemates Peace
and Co. and Top Notch who made up the first three in 2015’s Triumph Hurdle.
After an impressive novice campaign, big things were expected of Peace and Co
but he has been disappointingly underwhelming thus far. He’s had a wind
operation since his last run, but it is unlikely to bring about the improvement
needed to win this. Top Notch on the other hand has shown a more progressive
profile – despite disappointing at Cheltenham on heavy ground in January, he
has run well either side of that, when winning at Kempton and losing by a head
to Identity
Thief in the Fighting Fifth.
Identity Thief hasn’t been seen since then, being rested by
De Bromhead and prepped for this. The fact that he is taking the horse down
this route rather than novice chasing says a lot. The lack of a prep run in
this calendar year is a slight worry, however, I think this horse will come on
buckets for the good ground. The way he battled back to beat Top Notch in
Newcastle despite a poor jumping performance showed real guts and stamina. That
performance would put him only 2lbs below Nichols Canyon and with 3 months off
to improved comes into this unexposed and with a very good chance of winning.
The New One has twice tried and twice failed to win this – but
there is a niggling romantic notion that this ironically may be his best chance
of the three. Twiston-Davies seems adamant the horse is primed for this and the
front page of Mondays Racing Post leads with a headline marking their delight
in the drying ground. His form this season has been pretty good without blowing
away. His 2nd to Faugheen at Kempton showed he retains a lot of
class, but he still jumped violently to the right at several obstacles. If, and
only if, they have sorted that problem then I think he still has a chance here
of at least hitting the frame. The other worry is his speed in the middle of
the race which has found him out in the previous two years. His Cheltenham form
(barring last years Champion Hurdle) has always been good and I’ve never seen a
horse come up the hill quite like he did when winning the Neptune; there is a
chance that if this becomes a war of attrition up front he could be the one to
benefit if retaining some of that pace. At
the price I will leave him alone as I’ve been stung by him before (twice!) but
will be the first one cheering him on if he somehow does manage to get up.
The horse I haven’t mentioned is Sign of a Victory and
that’s because he has no chance despite good Cheltenham form!
4:10 – Mares Hurdle, 2m4f
Vroum Vroum Mag should win doing handstands.
I liked Polly Peachum last year at each way
against Annie Power when beaten a head by Glen’s Melody following Annie’s fall
and I like her again… no need to complicate it.
Bit of a Puzzle also has good form from last years race and can
run well again.
4:50 – Novice Chase,
4m
The 4 miler is a weird race as it seems to be where a lot of
horses who simply didn’t fit anywhere else end up. As a result it ends up being
full of horses that simply won’t stay the trip race. It is for amateur jockeys
only and therefore you need to consider who knows how to get their mount round!
It is no surprise then that the mounts of Nina Carberry,
Jamie Codd, Patrick Mullins, Katie Walsh and Derek O’Connor are to the fore in
the market.
Jonjo O’Neil has a great record in this and Minella
Roco will likely go off favourite – I think the horse lacks experience
and his poor Cheltenham form makes it difficult to back him at the prices. Native
River looked attractive up until his last run – the form is good but
you sense he’s on the downgrade for the season.
Noble Endeavour ticks the Cheltenham and jockey box – but all
form has been over a much shorter distance, despite Gordon Elliott’s assertion
he will stay the 4m this remains an unproven point and therefore makes the
price too short. The same goes for Willie Mullins’ Pont Alexandre.
Measureofmydreams will be thereabouts and give Katie Walsh a
good spin round, but the one I like is Southfield Royale who improved
markedly for a step up to 3m and looks like he’ll stay a lot further too. Has a
great jockey in Nina Carberry onboard and the form to match.
Of the rest, Local Show looks like a thoroughly
progressive horse and has won well on previous two starts. It is also
impossible to ignore Ballychorus trained by Magaret
Mullins, who doesn’t often send horses to the festival but when she does they’re
usually good ones! She also gets a mares allowance which will be a nice weight
off her back around this course.
5:30 – Listed
Handicap, 2m4f
This is an odd handicap with only 4lbs separating the field…
Aloomomo is one of those horses you hear whispers about
everywhere – he is a good horse but the hype has stolen any value from his
price.
By this stage we’ll know fairly well how Willie Mullin’s day
is going to pan out and McKinley could well cap it all off,
or, offer some redemption – depending how the others go!
The one I like is Killala Quay trained by Charlie
Longsdon and I’d fancy Richard Johnson to give him a good ride around. He is a
couple of years older than most of these but still seems progressive. Good ground
should be an advantage. Other than that Willow’s Saviour may well be a
likely sort.
No comments:
Post a Comment