Cheltenham Festival
Day 4: Gold Cup Day
Day 3 Review
 |
| Thistlecrack first, the rest nowhere - winning like a champion |
On Day 3 Thistlecrack exerted his dominance over the
staying hurdle division with an outstanding victory in the World Hurdle and the
most impressive victory of the festival so far.
As expected last year’s winner, Cole Harden, went from the front but was
unable to extend away from them on the second circuit. Tom Scudamore gave Thistlecrack a trouble free
ride around the outside picking them off slowly but surely. Mouse Morris had
clearly prepped Alpha Des Obeaux for this and it looked for a moment 2 out that
he might give the favourite a race down the home straight, but once Tom Scu
pushed the button he absolutely flew clear and won in the style of a champion –
his trainer wants to send him chasing next year and he could be a great Gold
Cup contender if taking to fences, though it would be hard to resist the
temptation not to just pick up this race for the next 4 years. Another great
story was Bob’s Worth managing to hit the frame in 3rd, to bring up
a ‘bringing them back’ treble for Henderson.
 |
| Never in doubt - Vautour wins the Ryanair with ease |
Vautour did not look his usual self in the paddock before the
Ryanair Chase and the comments made by his owner on Tuesday that he wasn’t
sparkling at home lead to him drifting slightly in the market to go off at (a
previously unthinkable) 11/10. However, he travelled handily, joining leader
Road to Riches at the 3rd last hard on the bridle before swinging
past him to make it look easy and rack up his 3rd festival victory –
Questions will be asked of the Ricci/Mullins dominance as it looked like a
performance that would have seen him go close in the Gold Cup. Interestingly, there were reports on the
preview circuit that Gangster, who runs in today’s Albert Bartlett was working
him into the ground at home…. Well worth a bet at 7/1 if that’s the case.
Day 3 started shambolically with an appalling mistake by starter
letting them go when Zabana was facing to the side – subsequently he unshipped
Davy Russell before the start and his chance was gone – he will be a big fancy
next run out. Bristol De Mai ran excellently from the front but his jumping let
him down and despite coming up the hill better than any other horse he was
outstayed by Black Hercules who jumped a clean round, bringing Ruby Walsh’s
festival tally over 50 winners.
Davy Russell didn’t take long to turn the tables riding Mal
Dini superbly to win the Pertemps to Arpege D’Alene, with Our Kaempfer
finishing a respectable 5th. Empire of Dirt gave Gigginstown a
deserved win on Ryanair day in the what was a rough race in the Brown Advisory
Handicap; Kings Palace back in third gave a strong boost to one of Gigginstown’s
runners in the Gold Cup Don Poli. Full
Shift placed in 4th.
Limini was backed like she was the second coming, in from
evens to 2/5 and approached the last on the bridle held by Ruby Walsh before
drawing clear, showing she might just be the next Annie Power/Vroum Vroum Mag/
Quevega, though I wouldn’t be surprised if she turned up at Royal Ascot either.
Small Talk unfortunately went too hard
from the front and faded way back to midfield.
In the Kim Muir Dr Harper was backed into 7/2 and would’ve
had punters hearts in mouths when hitting the first fence which he never really
recovered from. The relentless pace suited Cause of Causes perfectly and he
showed his staying credentials to sweep past the field and win well. Knock
House stayed on well into 4th.
Day 4 Preview
Today the Blue Riband of racing, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, is
restored to centre stage as the race of the festival – with five top class
horses it should be a race to savour – will it finally be Willie Mullins’ year,
or, in a festival for the comeback kings can Cue Card answer the million pound
question and get his head in front? We are a matter of hours away from finding
out.
The supporting card sees classy staying novices battling it
out in the often gruelling ‘potato race’ and a tricky looking Triumph Hurdle.
After the main event the amateur and conditional jockeys take to the stage and
all eyes will be on Victoria Pendleton, Olympic cyclist, whom a year ago had
never even sat on a horse will now attempt to guide Pacha Du Polder around the
obstacles and undulations of Cheltenham – it’s a superb achievement that she’s
even made it here, though there maybe questions around her mounts stamina,
let’s hope she gets a good spin round and finishes the race with the partnership
intact!
Thank you for
reading,
Stay Shrewd,
And I will be back
for the Grand National on 9th April!
Shrew’s Shrewdies
1:30 – Zubayr 5/1 (if
you’re English) Footpad 10/1 (if you’re Irish) – Scaeu Royal 15/2 e/w
2:10 – Wait For Me
12/1 - Modus 18/1 e/w
2:50 – Barters Hill 9/2 - Unowhatimeanharry 11/1 e/w
3:30 – The Cheltenham
Gold Cup – My head says: Don Cossack 11/, my heart says Cue Card 4/1 so….
In a week that Annie
Power and Sprinter Sacre have won championship races it has to be Cue Card 4/1. Also - Smad Place 9/1 e/w
Or if you feel
adventurous…
(Trifecta: Don
Cossack, Cue Card, Djakadam!)
4:10 –On the Fringe (NAP)
3/1 – Mendip Express 11/1 e/w
4:50 – Squouateur 4/1
– Qualando 9/1 e/w or Jetstream Jack 14/1
5:30 – Next Sensation
9/1 – Chris Pea Green 20/1 e/w
Race by Race Guide
1:30 – Triumph
Hurdle, 2m
The lack of experience of these runners and the Anglo Irish
form lines make this a tricky one to decipher.
Three short months ago Ivanovich Gorbatov looked like a reincarnation
of Istabraq when winning well on debut. Istabraq was trained by Aiden O’Brien
and Ivanovich represents the start to what will surely be a successful training
career for son Joseph. Fast forward to February and he was finishing 9 lengths
down to Footpad the 1st of three Mullins runners ahead of
him on that day. His supporters will point to the bottomless ground being a
factor for his lack of form but it’s hard to fancy him at a short price.
Footpad on the other hand has some of the best form on offer from that race and
is one of two runners representing last year’s winning owners. But it is Let’s
Dance who really caught the eye, having being ridden from the front all
the way around that day she stayed on impressively in third and could well
reverse form if different tactics are deployed.
Zubyar looked impressive three weeks ago when winning the same
trial Zarkander won before winning this. The fact that this was a recent
victory perhaps makes him slightly shorter than he should be but he looks a
talented sort but Paul Nicholl’s knows how to buy a French juvenile and get
them to win here.
Nicholls also runs Clans Des Obeaux, Connetable, Frodon and
Tommy
Silver. Connetable comes into this joint top rated with Footpad and I
really like his form beating Ravin Black last time out. Frodon’s beating of
Fixe Le Kap last time out looks quite good, but his beaten rival didn’t impress
in the Fred Winter on Wednesday.
Sceau Royal looks a good sort who also runs for the Munir’s but
hasn’t run for 9 weeks and I’d want him to be a bit fresher coming into this
rather than being asked to peak again. Who Dares Wins is another who could
go well.
2:10 – County
Handicap Hurdle, 2m1f
I like the name Blue Hell – it’s a proper racehorse
name – and I think he could be a proper racehorse. He looked good when winning at
Fairyhouse, but his handicap mark here isn’t too kind. All Yours ran into a
decent 5th at Cheltenham last year which is nice form, but again at
the weight may struggle to hit the first 4.
Starchitect had his form franked in the Imperial Cup last
weekend, but it’s hard to get over the poor record that the Pipes have in
handicap hurdles. Sneaking in at the bottom of the handicap is Superb
Story – Dan Skelton’s runners have all gone well this week without
having one hit the frame – maybe this could be the one!
Willy Mullins won this last year with Wicklow Brave and runs
Ivan
Grozny here. His placing across the week so far has been spectacular
and it wouldn’t be against the script were he to bring this horse back to a
victory here. Ruby Walsh though choses Dicosimo, last seen giving Danny Mullins
a nasty fall at Newbury, fracturing his knee cap… not even the bookies will wish the same fate on Ruby, despite the battering they've taken this week.
Modus and Wait For Me represent the champion
bumper form (2nd and 3rd) and both of these are right at
the bottom of the handicap. Of the two, Wait For Me looks laid out for this. Modus
looked to be progressing nicely before being a beaten favourite and then
disappointing off of a good mark in the Betfair Hurdle. Both clearly come up
the hill nicely and both could place – they could potentially be thrown in.
2:50 – Albert
Bartlett Novice Hurdle, 3m
 |
| Barter's Hill has shown class and guts all year and will be hard to beat |
This is the most gruelling test for novice hurdlers in the
land and the one that has impressed thus far this season is Barter’s
Hill. I love this horse – he is a complete dope – lollops along lazily,
often going from the front and always looks like he’ll fade and get beaten
before staying on. I really liked the way he responded when challenged at
Doncaster, he is a fighter– and that’s exactly what you need for this sort of
test. He is the best proven stayer in the field but there is a slight concern
that he will perform as well on better ground.
Neil Mulholland horses have run well this week and Shantou
Village looks set to be a future stable star. He has only been beaten
once, by Yanworth and is yet to run over 3m. But his victory over Champers
on Ice make him a top contender if he can stay the trip and he is
certainly speedier in a finish than Barters Hill.
As we know, Vautour was diverted to the Ryanair after ‘not
sparkling’ on the gallops – apparently the horse that was giving him a beating
was Willie Mullins’ Gangster who is well fancied to run well here. His form isn’t
the best but everyone loves placing a wild bet on pure hearsay so why not!
Mullins also runs Up For Review who ran a poor fourth
behind Barters Hill at Doncaster. All of Mullins’ horses though appeared to run
badly that day and if we forgive him that run then he’s not far off the best of
these. Mullins’ most interesting runner is Long Dog who has had an unusual
campaign, being run through the summer and into the standard season beating
horses like Tombstone and Bachasson along the way. He is unbeaten
over hurdles and would be an unconventional winner. He hasn’t run for 82 days
but it won’t be surprising if Mullins has him spot on especially with Ruby
Walsh on board. The one that has possibly gone under the radar is Bleu
Et Rouge, if he stays he will be a big threat.
UnowhatImeanharry isn’t one for the grammar nazi’s, but could
well be there at the finish and we know he stays and he has won twice already
at Cheltenham.
3:30 – FEATURE RACE: Cheltenham
Gold Cup, 3m2f
Horse racing exists for races like this. After several renewals
of underwhelming quality which in turn were preceded by years of top heavy
markets, with giants of the game Kauto Star, Denman and Best Mate dominating
their respective races, we now have a race to savour; with class and quality to
spare. Last year’s race set the wheels in motion for introducing a new
generation of staying chasers, which with the younger generation also coming
through makes the Gold Cup the centrepiece of the festival once again.
The only negative is that last year’s emphatic winner and my
favourite horse in training, Coneygree, misses the race through injury. The
void left by his absence however has been filled by the Lazarusesque 10 year
old Cue
Card, who has been the story of the season in winning the Charlie Hill
and Betfair Chase before pipping Vautour on the line to win the King George on
Boxing Day. The latter two victories mean he now stands in line to win the
Jockey Clubs £1million bonus if he can cross the line in front today.
Connections will be boosted by the similarly impressive ‘back from the dead’
exploits of Sprinter Sacre earlier in the week – and I can’t think of a more popular
winner were he to win this.
To win, he faces the strongest Irish challenge in years.
It’s amazing the Willie Mullins has never won this race, despite 4 2nds. He
runs last year’s runner up Djakadam, 2015’s outstanding Gold
Cup runner up and 2015’s RSA winner Don Poli, who despite having a stone
to find on form just always seems to win! On ratings, the best horse in the
race is Don Cossack. He looked likely to go off favourite despite
having less than convincing Cheltenham form and falling when mounting a
challenge two out in the King George; if he can produce the form he showed to
win at Aintree and Punchestown last spring then he is a serious contender.
The focus on these superstars has meant that the highly
likeable grey Smad Place has gone somewhat under the radar. By his own
admission Alan King got the timings and preparation all wrong for Smad Place
last season when finishing a disappointing 8th behind Coneygree.
This season though, he has been a revelation, rejuvenated under front running
tactics he was brilliant when landing the Hennessey and then when winning at
Cheltenham on trials day in January. One would assume that the same front
running/ prominent racing style will be seen again today as opposed to the
hold-up tactics that saw him finish an underwhelming 4th in the King
George. If so, his profile, particularly his form at Cheltenham, makes his
price seem more than a shade of value despite the ground having gone against
him.
Runner by Runner
Carlingford Lough – This horse saves his best for Leopardstown
as he showed when coming from last to first in an impressive victory over Road
to Riches in the Irish Hennessey. The form has been strongly franked by Road to
Riches and Valseur Lido’s good 2nd and 3rd behind Vautour
in the Ryanair. He would need 1 or 2 of the principles to underperform in order
to hit the frame, but it’s not out of the question.
 |
Cue Card grinds out a victory in the King George against
Vautour - the form looks rock solid
|
Cue Card – Where to start? Whatever happens today this horse is
exceptional. His form at Cheltenham Festivals is unquestionable – Champion Bumper
winner at 50/1, 3rd in a hot Supreme Novice beating Sprinter Sacre
before coming a good second to him in the arkle the year after and an
exceptional Ryanair winner in 2013. Something happened to this horse in between
the penultimate and last fence of the 2013 King George, when seemingly stopping
in his tracks to be picked off by Silviniaco Conti. His form after that day
wasn’t the same and the following two seasons were marked as wilderness years
for a horse who was once one of the most promising in training. But, like
Sprinter Sacre, he fought back – a wind operation for a trapped epiglottis (the
flappy thing in your throat) seemed to fix whatever problem had been ailing him
and just like that he sprang back to the horse he once promised to be, beating
Silvinaco Conti in the Charlie Hall and then the Betfair Chase before winning
the most dramatic of King George’s – getting up in the dying strides to beat
Vautour by a nose. There is an extra two and a half furlongs and a hill to
climb today, but everything about that performance showed he stayed. The
Betfair, King George and Gold Cup form what the Jockey Club have called the ‘triple
crown’ of racing, offering a £1million bonus to any horse who wins the three. He has been written off for both in the build
up but still got his head up where it mattered. After the dominant win from
stablemate Thistlecrack on Tursday, from the ashes, Cue Card is 26.5 furlongs
away from doing just that. Fancied.
 |
| Can Djakadam put a fall behind him to go one better? |
Djakadam – No horse has ever lost in their first attempt at a
Gold Cup and come back to win in another year – only Kauto Star has returned to
win after losing here ever. But that is the task set to Djakadam, who as a six
year old ran a great race to finish second behind Coneygree in 2015. His
participation was in doubt briefly after falling when behind Smad Place on
trials day and taking a minor chest injury, but reports from the Mullins yard
are that he has caught up on his work. His form this season before the fall was
good winning well in the John Durkan. Reports were that Djakadam was working
all over Vautour on the gallops and his price has dropped significantly because
of it. He has a couple of pounds to make up to be top rated in this but he is
only 7 and can improve. Importantly the course and distance form counts for
everything here and he will surely go close as Willie Mullins bids for a first
Gold Cup winner.
 |
The highest rated chaser in training but yet to prove it on the
biggest stage of all
|
Don Cossack – The first of the ‘Don’s’ – Cossack is officially
the best rated horse in this race. His victories at Aintree (when beating an
albeit much weaker Cue Card 26 lengths) and beating Road to Riches and Djakadam
in the Punchestown Gold Cup last year are absolutely the highest form on offer
and he will absolutely relish the spring ground. He ran in snatches in the King
George but what was most impressive was that he was still there at the second
last and looked to be getting the better of Cue Card before falling. Therein
lies the problem – his jumping at times has been unspectacular – particularly at
Cheltenham. His fans will tell you he was unlucky in last years RSA when squeezed
out at the second last – but his jump 4 out was poor too and cost him the
ground that he could never quite make up. Brian Cooper’s confidence will be up
from riding Empire of Dirt to a win on Thursday, but his positioning will need
to be spot on to ensure a clear round as he cannot afford to make a mistake
against much better horses. There will be no hiding place in this race and he
needs to be foot perfect. If he jumps round cleanly, I think he wins. But it
may prove a big if.
 |
Always doing just enough, lazy or economical? - The Don beating
Grand National winner Many Clouds
|
Don Poli – Nothing that Don Poli has done so far is as good as
Cue Card, Djakadam, Don Cossack or even Smad Place, but everything about him
makes him an absolutely perfect Gold Cup horse. Like Barters Hill who runs in
the Albert Bartlett, he is a great big lolloping horse. He races on and off the
bridle, lobs along lazily and looks like the best ride. The important thing
about him is that no matter how unlikely it looks, he always, always wins. He
improved hugely here in the RSA last year to put up his best performance,
galloping strongly up the hill and if this contest were over 5m2f he would
absolutely be the selection as he stays all day. Davy Russell is the perfect
jockey for him and if he can ride the same stalking race he rode on Lord
Windermere in 2014 then he has a chance. The problem is, on what he’s shown so
far he just doesn’t seem as good as the others. He has been cruelly labelled ‘Don
Slowly’ by those who oppose him, which is a bit harsh as a lot of his speed is
deceptive but... can he go a gallop with Don Cossack or Cue Card? If this turns
out to be the kind of race where they go to hard and knock blows out of
eachother upfront then absolutely he can pick up the pieces, but you have to
think at least one of the others will have the quality to keep their powder dry
to stay the trip. There are those who strongly support and those who strongly
oppose – one side will finish the day with egg all over their face.
Irish Cavalier – Well held by these on King George form, making
up the numbers here but could run on into the top 6 for prize money.
O’Faolain’s Boy – If any of the three big price horses were to
spring a shock, this is the more likely – He looked a champion in waiting when
beating Smad Place by a neck in the 2014 RSA following on from heading 2015
Grand National winner Many Clouds at Ascot. Shortly after that though he was
injured finishing down the field to Holywell at Aintree and connections have
plotted a slow and steady recovery path. He has run ok this season with the
sole spark of his old self coming when beating Sausalito Sunrise at Newbury. He
is still a good horse with a lot of ability but this is likely a step on the
comeback trail rather than a sincere attempt to win.
On His Own – The Mullins third string; his chance here was
probably 2014 when touched off by a short head by Lord Windermere – will give
Patrick Mullins a great spin round – may be ridden prominently to force a pace
or may drop in – if it falls to pieces will try to pick up a place.
 |
| He's not quite Dessie, but it's hard not to love a grey |
Smad Place – Who doesn’t love a front-running grey? Sometimes
it just pays to follow the horse who has been in form all year. Smad Place
ticks a lot of boxes – He has been placed 3 times in 3 different festivals in
championship races and has found a new lease of life with front-running tactics
this season winning the Hennessey before winning here over 3m1f on trials day.
He will definitely stay the trip, it’s just a matter of who can get passed him.
I would love to see another Coneygree like performance of last year and his
best chance is to aim to gallop them into submission early on – The ground won’t
be a problem for him, but maybe will be to the advantage of his rivals. They
should be good enough to come passed him towards the end, but if he sets an
even gallop would be a good bet to stay on for a place.
4:10 – Foxhunter
Chase, 3m2f
J P McManus has been banging them in this week and it would
take a brave one to oppose last year’s winner On The Fringe who is
opposed again by Paint the Clouds who was beaten favourite on that day back in
third. Their course and distance form is invaluable here and shapes the market.
They will surely both go close again.
There are several horses splitting them on official ratings,
including the mount of Victoria Pendleton
Pacha Du Polder – a lot of attention
has been given to this story and it would be one of the greatest sporting
achievements of all time should the former Olympic winning cyclist hit the
frame with her mount here having never ridden a horse only a year ago. She
looked good when winning easily at Wincanton but has unseated either side of
that – if she manages to get round in what will likely be a rough race then
that should be enough to raise a cheer from the crowd.
 |
Victoria Pendleton will hope for a clear round, only a year on
from 'switching saddles' from cyclist to jockey
|
Jim Culloty has a sniper’s eye for Cheltenham races – he won
two big races here in 2013 with Springheeled and Lord Windermere, the latter of
which followed up with a Gold Cup the year after. Here he runs It
Came To Pass who has mostly been plying his trade in point-to-points.
The fact that they are willing to run him as a six year old is very
interesting.
Aupcharlie has run decent festival races in the past too and is
expected to run well under Jamie Codd, fresh from his victory on Cause of
Causes. Current Event should go better than last year on more suitable
ground.
The one I fancy most to take on the favourite is Mendip
Express if stepping up on a mediocre run last time out.
4:50 – Martin Pipe
Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle, 2m4f
That Squouateur has been set up for this
is the worst kept secret in racing. Gordon Elliott has made no secret that he
wants to win the race named after his mentor Martin Pipe and the horse is
potentially thrown in. His other runner, Jetstream Jack may be the one who is
under the radar and looks well handicapped on his Musselburgh win.
Paul Nicholl’s runs Qualando who won at last year’s
festival and catches the eye. Ryan Hatch proved how good a jockey he is
steering Blaklion to success in the RSA. His mount Flying Angel looks to be
in off of a decent mark.
Willie Mullins runs several and books Lizzie Kelly for Business
Sivola who may prove a lively outsider.
5:30 – Grand Annual
Chase, 2m
The traditional curtain closer, a handicap over two miles
which often sees the same horses back year after year and is always a great
close to the festival.
Last year’s winner Next Sensation has to be
fancied again. He’s only 2lbs higher than last year which seems more than
reasonable and looks a decent bet to give team Scudamore another winner.
Savello is another returning winner towards the top of the
weights and will likely jump round well. The Saint James has flattered to
deceive several times this year, but may decide to pick up today.
It’s been a great week for Nicky Henderson and Lough
Kent may also go well for him off a good weight. I also like Chris
Pea Green who was running well in this last year before falling 4 out.
No comments:
Post a Comment