The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Gold Cup Day Preview 2018

Certified headcase Might Bite goes for Gold Cup glory

to give Henderson a big race treble

Gold Cup day! And its an ultra competitive one with the classy King George winner Might Bite heading a condensed market. He takes on last year’s second and third in Minella Rocco and Native River, Christmas Chase winner Road to Respect, Irish National winner Our Duke, Ladbrokes Trophy (Henessey winner) Total Recall, the talented but fragile Killultagh Vic, Irish Gold Cup winner Edwulf, and the talented Definitely Red an American. Should be a good one!

Apples Shakira, full sister to Apples Jade opens the card in a competitive opener. My advice, back her whenever, wherever you can. The Albert Bartlett will be more attritional than usual given the conditions and will require a real dour stayer to win it. I really like Flying Tiger in the county hurdle which means he probably has no chance. The same familiar faces return for the Foxhunter in which the top amateur jockeys battle for a Cheltenham winner before the conditionals get their chance in the Martin Pipe. Then its fasten your seatbelts for the Grand Annual before its all over for another year.

It’s a tricky day today so it may be best to go easy (or do a Might Bite and go easy then nuts at the end). Whether you’re backing the She Wolf or Edwulf,

Stay Shrewd.

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 – Apple’s Shakira 5/2 (NAP)

2:10 – Flying Tiger 12/1, Whiskey Sour 14/1 Mohayed 33/1

2:50 – Talkischeap 20/1, Chef Des Obeaux 5/1

 3:30 – FEATURE RACE: GOLD CUP

Road to Respect 8/1

The Whistling Shrew’s Gold Cup 1-2-3:

1st Road to Respect – 2^nd Our Duke – 3rd Total Recall

4:10 – Burning  Ambition 3/1

4:50 – Sire Du Berlais 10/1 and/or Amour De Nuit 40/1 e.w.

5:30 – North Hill Harvey 8/1 or Bouvereil 12/1

Key Race Guide

1:30 – Triumph Hurdle, 2m1f

Class and Grit. Can Apple's Shakira fend off a highly competitive field?

It makes a man want to speak Spanish.

This looks like a strong renewal of the race and it is a shame We Have a Dream has been withdrawn. But Nicky Henderson still has the best chance of the winner on what we’ve seen so far this season in Apple’s Shakira. She is unbeaten in 4 runs, the most recent three at Cheltenham and has shown she is gutsy as well as classy when winning on poor ground last time out. She is a full sister to the brilliant Apples Jade who was second in this on only her third run and receives a 5lb mares allowance. For me she should be evens.

There are two things keeping her at a bigger price, the first of which is Redicean who has been emphatic in three wins at Kempton this year and will certainly put up a challenge to the favourite. He is higher rated but slightly behind when factoring in the mares allowance and the added advantage of course form has me just siding with Apple’s Shakira.

The second is Willie Mullins who fires another exciting filly in Stormy Ireland into this alongside Mr Adjudicator and Saldier. All three look like they could be classy but have essentially beaten nothing so far and aren’t as battle hardened as their British counterparts. Farclas is another horse with potential but was beaten by Mr Adjudicator last time and I don’t see any reason for him to reverse form.

2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, 3m

To be honest this is really tough. You need a horse who is a real hard nut to win this, backs of experience and can stay forever. The ground is an additional factor that makes this a really stern test for novice hurdlers. The top two in the market have obvious form claims but this won’t just be about class it’ll be about guts and grit. I’m going to side with Chef Des Obeaux over Santini. I’d also want one in the guts and grit category and theres quite a few contenders for this. Second season novice Callet Mad is as gutsy and gritty as they come and I’ll might regret not making him the section and there are others who make appeal. But I’ve had my eye on Talkischeap for this as a horse with runs under his belt and improved form stepped up in distance.

3:30 - FEATURE RACE: Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3m2.5f

One of the most competitive Gold Cups in years with eight horses officially rated within five pounds of one another. The Gold Cup usually goes to the horse that has shown their form this season which would point towards Might Bite or Road to Respect.

What to say about Might Bite... He is obviously talented and probably the most talented horse in the race as he proved when winning the RSA last year despite his best efforts to throw it away. His length win over Double Shuffle has lead many to question the strength of the King George win, but to be fair he looked like he had a fair bit left in the tank if Nico De Boinville had needed to ask for it. His stamina for me isn’t really the worry, the worry is more his quirks at Cheltenham. His wandering up the run in wasn’t the first time he has done that here having done it twice over hurdles previously. The ground also makes this a more attritional staying test and you have to wonder whether that doesn’t play into the hands of some of his rivals who might get him at it earlier than he’d like. He could win and win well but at the prices I’m content to look elsewhere.

Road to Respect also has festival form, running out an easy winner of the Brown Advisory Handicap

R-E-S-P-E-C-T Aretha Franklin wins the Christmas Chase

last year and he has looked really good upped to 3m this season in winning the Christmas Chase at Leopardstown and finishing just behind Outlander at Down Royal. He still looks progressive and will be freshened up for this. On official ratings he doesn’t have much to find with Might Bite and though I did have a doubt as to whether beating Oulander and Balko De Flos amounts to being good enough to win a gold cup it is a trial that the likes of Synchronised, Denman and Best Mate have taken in on the way to glory. Balko De Flos’ win in the Ryanair is a big boost to the form. Outlander has shown no liking to Cheltenham on his three trips here so I’d expect the same again today. At current odds he looks a good bet to me.

Cometh the rain, cometh the river. One horse who'll relish conditions

The ground is a strong plus for Native River and Our Duke. Native River will be a much fresher horse than he was last year and I’d love to see him win because he’s an exception talent and one of my favourite horses in training. However, his price fully assumes his late start to the season can only be a positive and although he looked good on reappearance when bolting up at Newbury he is a candidate for the bounce factor and faces stiffer opposition than when third last year. Added to that fact is that Minella Rocco is five times the odds and has beaten him twice now at the festival. He would be a credible each way bet but I have ground concerns and his form seems in decline.

The Duke bids to give the Harrington team back to back winners

Our Duke has had quite the different preparation following a poor return at the beginning of the season he was given kissing spine surgery to rectify a back issue and has been raced hard in the calendar year to get himself back up to fitness. I have an antepost double from the end of last season with him to win this and Might Bite the King George so I’m hoping for a big show. The ground will be a plus and I think he’ll stay all day but at this pace. His weakness is his jumping which sometimes can be a little guessy. Puppy power will need to fire him into each fence to avoid any sloppy and costly errors, but I imagine he knows that. The form last time out, beating Presenting Percy and powering away from him when 6lbs worse off has to be taken very very seriously.

The ground could also be a plus for Killultagh Vic on only his 5^th start over fences. This horse is undoubtedly very very good having beaten Thistlecrack over hurdles. He is a past festival winner having won the Martin Pipe on this card back in 2015. He returned this season after a long absence to win a hurdle race before looking potentially the winner in the Irish Gold Cup before falling at the last. On pure talent he could be the winner but there are question marks over his experience and the preparation he’s had to get ready for this. You can probably give Mullins the benefit of the doubt on the latter following the exceptional reappearance of Penhill on Thursday. 

Edwulf the miracle horse goes for the biggest prize of all

His comeback would be considered a miracle if it weren’t for the horse who capitalised on his fall to win the Irish Gold Cup by touching off Outlander on the line, Edwulf, who broke down at Cheltenham last year only to be revived and nursed back to health. If he manages to place here it would be a stunning achievement.

Definitely Red was a good winner of the Cotswold Chase which American looked like he would win turning in before hitting a weird flat spot then running in again. I’d be quite surprised if that form were good enough to win this but they could maybe hit the frame.

Total Recall is probably the best each way shout though. It’s not often you’ll get a Hennessey winner at 25/1 for this so is worth a punt. Anibale Fly may run well if putting his last race behind him.

Realised I haven't mentioned Djakadam... so Djakadam. Now I have.

The Ground

The ground is a really important angle in this as it’s going to become a real slog – this favours horses who have won over further, Our Duke, Native River, Edwulf, Total Recall being four such horses.

Grade 1 form over 3m+

The other thing I’m looking at is specifically form in grade 1 staying chases and to be honest it’s few and far between. Might Bite has it in spades and Road to Respect has improved up to that level this year. The other again is Edwulf. It is a really condensed Gold Cup in terms of ratings so is the kind of year a ‘handicapper’ could come up and simply outstay them, but I still think the ability to beat Grade 1 horses counts for a lot.

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Preview

Today sees a competitive Stayer’s Hurdle as its main feature with the market poised to send any one of three horses off favourite. Proven performers Yanworth and Supersundae both have question marks over their head and will need to fend off the lightly raced hothead Sam Spinner if they are to be victorious in a race also featuring old favourites UnowhatImeanharry and The New One.

Speaking of old favourites...The feature performance on this day last year was undoubtedly Un De Sceaux who tugged his

Un de Sceaux bids for back-to-back Ryanair Chases

way to the front way too early in the Ryanair and put in an electric round of jumping to stay there. He is a proven mudlark but this distance in conditions will be another sort of test and may play into the hands of the evergreen Cue Card who (I backed) to win this race at 5/2 a mere 5 years ago. Either would be a massively popular winner.

Laurina looks a good thing in the Mares Novice to make it three out of three for Mullins since the race was first introduced in 2016. The JLT could well be heading to Mullins too with Invitation Only just about favourite to beat a strong English contingent headed by Modus and Terrafort. The two handicaps look as ridiculously difficult to solve as ever but I’ll try anyway...

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 – Invitation Only 3/1 or Shattered Love 9/1

2:10 – Delta Work 12/1

2:50 – Un De Sceaux 11/10 or Frodon 12/1 e.w.

3:30 – Stayers Hurdle: Sam Spinner 7/2 (Nap) or Wholestone 20/1 e.w.

4:10 -  Movewiththetimes 9/1 e.w.

4:50 – Laurina 8/11

5:30 – Mall Dini 6/1  

Key Race Guide

1:30 – JLT Novice Chase, 2m5f

Willie Mullins has an excellent record in this and is represented by Invitation Only who brings Grade 1 form to the table in a good third behind Monalee over this distance at Punchestown.

Terrefort keeps winning despite his trainer not thinking he’s that good. Although not far off the favourite on ratings he hasn’t really beaten much and it’s all been at a lower level than that of Invitation Only. The slightly better form is held by Modus who has looked much more consistent over fences than he did hurdles and he looks the most likely of the British horses. Finains Oscar has potential to turn up but on this seasons evidence can be left alone.

Benatar is by Benefficial who certainly has a good record at Cheltenham but his winners have tended to come in handicap company and I’m not sure he’ll have quite the class to win this. Speaking of sires, Shattered Love represents the flat legend Yeats and has looked excellent when beating Jury Duty to win a grade 1 last time out. She will definitely stay further than this and that could serve her well in the ground. She probably has a couple of lengths still to find on the market principles but its not out of the question and she is the only grade 1 winner in the field.

I have a terrible history of trying to oppose Willie Mullins favourites in this race to little avail so I’ll put up Shattered Love in the hopeless expectation that Invitation Only will win. 

2:50 – Ryanair Chase, 2m5f

This has suddenly become one of the most exciting races of the festival with Un De Sceaux bidding to retain his title. Although he has settled better in recent years, the atmosphere of last years festival lit him up, leading to one of the best displays of the year when dragging Ruby Walsh to the front with a circuit to go and staying there. In behind that day was Sub Lieutenant and Aso, who with all due respect are not the same level of opposition that he faces today. Against better stayers he may well be vulnerable.

Cue Card bids for one last hurrah in a race he won 5 years ago

Over the past 7 seasons there haven’t been many better than Cue Card who must have racings greatest constitution. Now in his 12^th year, his form has become a little patchier but he ran exceptionally well last time out at Ascot behind Waiting Patiently. If Un De Sceaux goes to quick in front he may be there to pick up the pieces as might the improving Balko Des Flos who split Outlander and Road to Respect at Leopardstown in December.

Cloudy Dream and Frodon are both good horses but it would take a big step forward for them to win here. Either could hit the frame and both have very good course form, Cloudy Dream in the Arkle behind Altior and Frodon in Grade 3 handicap company when beating Ultima 2nd Shantou Flyer by a mean 17 lengths with Ultima winner Coo Star Sivola in 4th. Looks like good form now.. 

It’s a tough call and although Cue Card probably represents the best value, I’m going to go heart over head and tip Un De Sceaux to keep his cool for long enough to get home. If he doesn’t quite get it then Frodon has course and distance form that could count for a lot.

3:30 - FEATURE RACE:  Stayers Hurdle

A difficult puzzle to solve with three horses vying for favouritism all of whom come into this race with very different preparations. Supersundae in many ways seems the obvious one having won the coral cup last year and providing a shock win over Faugheen over 2m in the Irish Champion Hurdle. He has undoubted class but there is a nagging doubt about his ability to stay having been set to beat Apple’s Jade over 3m before the mare chased him down and eventually won comfortably with she herself a doubtful stayer. On the ground I don’t know if I can fancy him.

Yanworth bids to break his festival hoodoo

Yanworth has proven himself both over 3m and on the ground and was victorious over Supersundae at the trip at Aintree last season and I think he has the edge of the two today. He is a horse who is probably underrated and doesn’t get the credit he deserves, but the fact remained that he has come here twice and been beaten on both occasions, once over hurdles by Yorkhill and last year tamely fading out in the Champion Hurdle when favourite. He is a class act and if the real Yanworth shows up he may be hard to beat but he has not in any way been prepared for this race. His campaign this year has all been over fences and although he’s done a fair job over the larger obstacles – notably when seeing off Willoughby Court here on heavy – you wonder how easily he’ll transition back and whether 3m on this ground may be just a little too far.

On the up - Sam Spinner could improve to win this

One horse that will love the stamina test is Sam Spinner. I saw him at Haydock in a handicap earlier in the season with my mate Dave McDonna (Hi Dave!). The race was on awful awful ground the day that Bristol De Mai won the Betfair Chase. HE won by about 17 lengths going away and I said to myself “If that horse doesn’t win the stayers hurdle then I’m a Dutchman!” The Dutchman fittingly being the horse he dished out the drubbing to. But in all seriousness... he has subsequently gone on to win at grade 1 level with Unowhatimeanharry, Lil Rockerfeller and The Worlds End all well beaten behind. It may be Cheltenham blog fatigue but looking at that form now 7/2 might be a shade generous.... He is still a young horse and we don’t know a lot about him yet but I’d say if he can repeat his last two runs he is the winner of this. One doubt is he could be more effective over a flat track but that is yet to be tested so we'll find out today. 

Unowhatimeanharry has been given a more gentle preparation this year and it woulnd’t be the biggest surprise if he bounced back with a win. He has each way value but this looks on paper a harder race than last time. Wholestone is an improving horse though who I tipped each way in the Albert Bartlett last year where he ran on into a good third. That’s good course form and he’s gone on this year to win a Grade 2 before just being touched off by Agrapart. Others have slightly stronger form but conditions are certain to suit.

Old favourite The New One finally gets a chance at the longer trip

I nearly forgot to mention The New One who finally gets a shot at a longer trip. This is going to be a real slog for him and as gutsy as he is it’s doubtful it’s going to be his day. Just hope the old boy gives a good account of himself!

4:50 – Mares Novice, 2m1f

Laurina should win to maintain Willie Mullins perfect record in this. Maria’s Benefit is the obvious danger, so maybe a forecast if you fancy it.

The Whisling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival 2018 Preview Day 2

Happy Samcro Day! The hype has been there since he even jumped a hurdle and so far he has done nothing not to justify it. There are some who say his times against the clock are nothing impressive and question what he’s beaten but today we find out if he is the real deal.

 

Altior puts his unbeaten record on the line in his hardest test to date

It is testament to how good connections (his owner aside) think the horse, who is still just a novice hurdler could be that he is being given the headlines on a day that features and exceptional Champion Chase. As if from nowhere we have the mouthwatering prospect of Altior vs Douvan, at their peak the best two mile chasers either side of the Irish Sea. But there are question marks as to whether either will truly be at their peak and though Ruby Walsh chooses to ride Douvan, Min is the Rich Ricci horse who seems to have come of age this season and could provide an upset. They are by no means the only contenders in a race that contains last year’s winner Special Tiara, Tingle Creek winner Politologue and other old favourites Charbel, God’s Own, Ordinary World and Ar Mad making it a stellar renewal in which anything can and probably will happen. It is a race in which hindsight will be proven to be a wonderful thing. Something is the wrong price, I’m not 100% sure what.

Not only that but there is another mouth watering clash in the RSA between Irish hopes Presenting Percy and Monalee, with Bryony Frost sure to steal the headlines if she can nurse Black Corton to a 5^th victory of his season. The Cross Country should be another great head to head with Gordon Elliott leading the way with Tiger Roll and Cause of Causes. The handicap hurdles both look tricky and the champion bumper finishes the card and is as trappy as ever.

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 – Samcro should win. Black Op 9/1 e.w. or without the favourite.

2:10 – Black Corton 7/1 e.w.

2:50 – Le Breuil 12/1, Mount Mews 16/1

3:30 – Champion Chase: Altior 11/10 just.

4:10 – Tiger Roll 11/2 ... slight ground worry. Urgent De Gregaine 16/1 e/w

4:50 – Act of Valour 12/1 and/or Malaya 14/1 e/w

5:30 – Rhinestone 7/1. Reverse Forecast Rhinestone and Blackbow

Long shot: reverese forecast on Act of Valour and Malaya at 4:50

Key Race Guide

1:30 - Ballymore Novice Hurdle, 2m5f

Jesus

I think Samcro wins this but he’s too short to back. The Ballymore tends to oddly be more of a speed test than the shorter Supreme and his win in the Deloitte Hurdle showed he has pace as well as stamina to win this. The form was given a minor boost in the fact that Paloma Blue who he beat by 9 lengths that day was 3 lengths behind the winner of the Supreme Novice. I want the horse to win too much that I can't really tell if it's a good bet or not. I think rationally if you can get odds against or evens on the day you should take it. Otherwise just sit back and admire with fingers crossed. 

Next Destination will be his main threat and has the advantage of running here before when coming 4^th in the Champion Bumper. He has beaten Cracking Smart twice this year which is good form. He is also unbeaten in three and is the one to side with if you want to oppose the favourite. Duc Des Genievres was also behind Samcro in the Deloitte and I see no reason the form will be reversed.

Black Op is the best of the English horses and is probably overpriced. May prove a good each way bet if Samcro does flop. At a bigger price Mr Whipped and Real Steel may be interesting to hit the frame but I’d side with Scarpeta as a longer priced bet.

2:10 – RSA Novice Chase, 3m1/2f

Can Bryony Frost and Black Corton cap one of the stories of the

season with a Cheltenham victory?

First thing to say is this is a brilliant race and as such the market is a little bit out of shape. The betting suggests this is a head to head between Presenting Percy and Monalee but it’s a race that often throws one up at a bigger price. Of the two market principles Monalee gave a massive boost to his form when beating Al Boum Photo (2^nd) and Dounikos (4^th) a month ago at Leopardstown. He seemed to be staying on the best of all of them and looked the most likely to enjoy the extra three furlongs. That said his hurdles form over three miles read 124 with a fall on his first chase of the distance which may not be the most encouraging sign. The 2^nd however was at the festival in the Albert Bartlett, but I’d personally have preferred him to line up in the JLT this year. It’s possible though that Presenting Percy’s win in last year’s Pertemps Final was better, though he seemed to be very leniently handicapped that day. His novice chase campaign has been hard to gauge as it’s been slightly unorthodox. His 2^nd behind Gold Cup chance Our Duke who he was in receipt of 6lbs could be read two ways, but his win over 3m5f can only be a positive for his chances of staying in these conditions. Either could win but I think both are too short given my reservations

That leaves us then with the British challenge. Black Corton has been on the go a long time and just keeps surprising connections taking in four wins, significantly two at Cheltenham, and forming a formidable partnership with Bryony Frost en route which has become one of the stories of the season. His only defeat was at the hands of Elegant Escape at slightly less than three miles and on much better ground than they’ll encounter today. The horse was initially seen as a summer horse and has just key going which isn’t exactly an attractive profile but he has to be the tentative selection at current odds.

 Ballyoptic is another horse Black Corton has beaten along the way this season and does feel a little overpriced. He always seems a ‘nearly’ horse in these big races and you feel there will be a big day in him somewhere. It could be today and he reminds me of Blaklion who won this for the same connections a few years ago but doesn’t quite have the same form in the book yet to be a challenger in this.

3:30 - FEATURE RACE: Queen Mother Champion Chase, 2m

The imperious Douvan, undefeated before injury here last year

This race has been a rollercoaster before it even started and from what seemed implausible at the beginning of the year, the big clash is on: Altior vs Douvan (vs Min vs the rest). Until the weekend it looked unlikely that Douvan would line up for this being his first race back since incurring a hairline fracture to his pelvis in a race eventually won by Special Tiara (who will likely go from the front again but find conditions not to his liking today).  Then no sooner than Douvan was declared and with Ruby Walsh aboard, Altior had some pus in his foot and was flagged as a doubt on Monday morning before a positive update was finally given on Tuesday that he would run after all. Phew.

It is hard enough to work out who would win the head to head if they had both had a perfect preparation. I would just about side with Altior as the younger horse of the two. I would side with Altior too on the preparation angle. Although Willie Mullins has an excellent history of prepping horses after a lay off (see Faugheen, Arctic Fire and Killultagh Vic as examples) this is a massive massive ask and I think Douvan has to rely on Altior not being his best to taste victory here.

I’m not overly concerned about the last minute scare for Altior and the pus in his foot. This is something we have seen happen to derby winner Harzand recently before winning his race and is really not too big a deal. The bigger concern is how fresh he is going to be having started his season in February. He won the Game Spirit well, beating Tingle Creek winner Politologue three lengths. He was not fully wound up for that so I don’t think there is a big chance of him bouncing. On past evidence, Nicky Henderson has timed horse’s fitness to perfection and so I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt again.

Altior on his way to beating Min in 2015 

Ruby Walsh is not often wrong, but whether his decision to ride Douvan is a plus for Douvan or a negative for Min we won’t know until after the race. Some would argue that even if Altior turns up 100% then Min’s improvement over fences is enough to get him a lot closer than the 7 length thrashing Altior gave him in the Supreme. It could also be argued that Altior’s win in last year’s Arkle was his least impressive victory and this test may not be his ideal but I’d argue that he was just doing what he had to that day. Min’s chance is a very real one though because he is the most talented horse in the race who has been out and done it repeatedly this season. I’m going to take Ruby Walsh’s decision as a negative for Min though and side with Altior to beat him.

This could be contradicted if you take a form line through Ordinary World literally, with Altior beating him only 15 lengths in the Arkle compared with Min's 30 lengths at Leoardstown, but it's hard to take that literally. It does however allude to Min being possibly much closer to Altior on ability than he was over hurdles. 

Altior wins his races between the last to fences and I don’t think we’ve ever seen him have to rely try. The test here is how he will fare up against not one but two top class rivals from the same stable. Between them they may have more to put it up to Altior than either would alone. When push comes to shove I think he still has a little more to find if he needs it but we won’t know until it happens (or doesn’t). You are basically taking a price on whether Nicky Henderson has managed to get him here 100% fit or not in my view and odds against seems reasonable for that. But expect a real horserace if Douvan turns up 100% too.

Min looks most likely to pick up the pieces if it all comes apart but don’t be afraid to back one at a big price for hitting the frame. Charbel looked like he would’ve given Altior a race last year before falling two out and may return to form when back here.

It is a race where there is potential for every surprising outcome to happen and I really hope all of the horses are able to give their best account on the day. Can’t wait!

4:10 – Cross Country Chase, 3m6f

Cause of Causes bids to retain his Cross Country Crown

Long gone are the days that this was a race for horses who’d lost their way and needed a new challenge to freshen them up. This is now a proper race with proper horses, three of which have been 2^nd in a Grand National in Cause of Causes, The Last Samuri and Saint Are. All of them make some appeal with Causes of Causes being the most obvious to retain his title. It will be interesting however to see how The Last Samuri takes to the banks.

The other Cheltenham hero is the enigmatic Tiger Roll who has the unusual resume of winning the triumph hurdle over 2m and the National Hunt Cup Chase over 4m, so you could say he’s versatile. He ran moderately over these obstacles in December but tracks a very similar route into the race that Cause of Causes did last year and I think he has the class to improve for this and win.

Josies Orders, Bless The Wings and Auvergnat are by no means out of it and would be good bets if going off at a decent each way price but I think the one to keep on side may be French raider Urgent De Gregaine who brings a new meaning to under the radar. He won here in January 2017 and has been lightly raced since. I think he’s overpriced.

4:50 – Fred Winter Hanicap Hurdle, 2m1f

I haven’t had much time to look into this but it pays to follow Paul Nicholls in this race and its not uncommon he has the first two home. So that’s my selection!

5:30 – Champion Bumper, 2m

The best bumper form on offer this season was when Blackbow beat Rhinestone. On available evidence they’re the best horses in the race. I’d have Rhinestone to reverse the form on the better ground, but may be worth a forecast too.

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival Preview Day 1

Following the trend in recent years, the first day of the Festival sees short price favourites tackling the Grade 1 races. The Champion Hurdle sees Buveur D’Air looking to retain his crown and he is well fancied to do so against opposition with more than one or two questions to answer. If he’s the king of day 1 then the queen is undoubtedly Apples Jade who goes in the mares hurdle. She’s gutsy and classy and I think this is her ideal trip. I personally would’ve liked to see her take on the boys in the Champion Hurdle but she must surely be a shoo-in here despite the presence of some exciting opposition.

Buveur D'Air bids to retain the Champion Hurdle

Getabird bids to give Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh another Supreme winner in the colours of Rich Ricci to follow in the footsteps of Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan and considering the prices those three went off at he is ridiculously priced to do so despite his obvious class. Speaking of footsteps, Footpad leads the market in one of the contests of the whole festival. He has been foot perfect and absolutely relishes fences, but will have to be to fend off an improving Petit Mouchoir, Saint Calvados and Brain Power.

The Ultima is always one of the best handicaps of the festival and Nicky Henderson seems to have a strong hand this year. The four miler sees the amateur jockeys give the staying stars of the future a spin. The card closes with a novice chase handicap over 2m4f.

Stay Shrewd

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 – Mengli Kahn 14/1 e.w. or Kalashnikov 5/1 (Getabird for multiples, see below) 

2:10 – Footpad 5/4 (NAP)

2:50 – Shantou Flyer 20/1, Cogry 25/1 e.w.

3:30 –  FEATURE RACE, Champion Hurde: Buveur D’Air will win, but Melon 6/1 without the favourite

4:10 – Apples Jade to win, or, Apples Jade-La Bague Au Roi forecast, or, trifecta with Apples Jade to win and La Bague Au Roi and Benie Des Dieux in behind.

4:50 -  Mossback 6/1

5:30 – Barney Dwan 8/1, or, Mr Whitaker 10/1

Multiples – Buveur D’Air, Apples Jade and Footpad Treble, or make it a lucky 15 or 4-fold if you like Getabird

Key Race Guide

1:30 – Supreme Novice, 2m

Is it a Getabird is it a plane?

Getabird looked impressive when easily beating Mengli Kahn by nine lengths at Punchestown in January. He will have been freshened up since then and  looks like the obvious contender to go close in this. Mengli Kahn had looked to be a leading fancy before running out at Leopardstown and was probably still feeling the effects when beaten. He could still bounce back if coming on for better ground and at current odds I’d take him each way to hit the frame vs Getabird to win. 

On the other side of the Irish Sea Kalashnikov laid down his claims for this with a good win in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. On official ratings he is in line with Getabird and is more battle hardened having had 4 races compared to Getabird’s two. I’m not sure he has the same speed and class but the odds mean he still may be a good bet.  His only defeat came at the hands of Summerville Boy who seemed to relish the heavy ground at Sandown – I’d expect Kalashnikov’s speed to enable him to reverse the form on better ground.

First Flow is probably overpriced based on two very easy wins on heavy and won on soft before that. It will be interesting to see how he goes on better ground but he probably has 8lbs to find on the market principles. Slate House is one to look out for in the future but I’m not sure this will be his day.

The form from last year’s Champion Bumper is represented by Debuchet (2^nd) Claimantakinforgan (3^rd) and Western Ryder (5^th). Debuchet seems to have not foun the same level of form over obstacles but  the other two have looked good over hurdles at some point this season before disappointing. Could have each way chances.

2:10 – Arkle Novice Chase, 2m

Footpad hasn't touched a twig and heads a compact field

A compact but excellent field for this. Petit Mouchoir and Footpad were 3^rd and 4^th in last years Champion Hurdle with Brain Power quite a way back in 8^th. The two Irish horses have met in their last run with Petit Mouchoir coming back from a minor injury. It is likely he will come on for the run and many have pointed to the fact he was staying on to close the gap on Footpad on the line however I think Footpad was being eased down come the end. Also looking back at last year’s champion hurdle, Footpad seemed to get up the hill better than Petit Mouchoir despite eventually finishing 4^th. I’d expect his jumping will get him to the front and his class to let him stay there.

Saint Calvados has been excellent since transferring to Harry Whittingdon and has won his last 3 in small fields. On official ratings he’s up there with Footpad and he is a good jumper. His hurdles form however was nowhere near the front two which would make him not have the  right sort of profile for this and may mean he doesn’t have the requisite speed. I like him a lot but I’m not sure he has the class or experience of the favourite.

Brain Power is yet to really show the potential that is allegedly there so wouldn’t be a fancy for me. I think the market has it right and Footpad will win.  

If Robinshill wins then the bookies go home very happy.

3:30 - FEATURE RACE: Champion Hurdle, 2m

Buveur D’Air bids to be the first horse since Hardy Eustace to retain Champion Hurdles in back to back seasons and it is really through lack of opposition that he finds himself such a strong favourite in the market. He won easily last year and has looked slick in his wins this season, even though he hasn’t beaten much. in doing so. In fact it may be how slick he is over a hurdle that is his biggest danger  as he takes the hurdles shockingly low sometimes but he hasn’t fallen yet and I expect a clear round should be enough to win.

Can Willie Mullins perform a miracle and get Faugheen 

back to his best?

That fact isn’t going to stop Willie Mullins taking him on though and he fires a contingent at this of  Yorkhill, Faugheen, Melon and Wicklow Brave. If Faugheen reproduces the form of his first run this season he could well cause an upset, but it would be one hell of a training performance considering his last two runs. The horse was due to come back last season but had a minor setback. He was then kept on the go all through the summer before being impressive on return. We can write the Christmas run off as being attributed to the ‘bounce factor’ but the last run behind Supersundae in the Irish Champion Hurdle showed that although his heart was still in it his legs just couldn’t carry him there. He wears cheekpieces in a bid to freshen him up and even a repeat of the Leoardstown run could see him come 2^nd but it’d be something truly special if he were to beat the favourite.

Even more disappointing than Faugheen’s decline has got to be that of Yorkhill, though that may be more down to the bizarre decisions of connections who couldn’t decide what this horses trip was. He now drops back to hurdles and again could hit the frame but has so far shown nothing this season to make him a worthwhile bet. On the other side of the coin is Wicklow Brave who is a dual performer over hurdles and on the flat. He’s ran well in this before and could again, but is priced accordingly.

I’m willing to give Melon a chance of getting into the places. He pulled like a maniac in the International Hurdle before coming a close third. He was poor last time out behind Faugheen but his Supreme run last year was nothing to be ashamed of and he may improve for a return to spring ground. 20/1 seems a fair price to find out

It might be a Henderson 1-2 though: My Tent or Yours has been second in three Champion Hurdles and has done nothing this season to make you think he can’t do it again despite being an 11 year old now. Going on just this seasons form he has to have a chance of being 2^nd again but is priced accordingly.

At the other end of the age scale, Elgin is an interesting supplementary entry and may well stand a chance of hitting the frame. He has been progressive through handicaps and deserves a chance here. Despite having won at the track his 7h in last year’s Supreme wasn’t great so I could leave him alone here.

I could see one or two hitting the frame at a big price if others don’t perform. Mick Jazz and John Constable look most likely for this if the race does fall apart.

4:10 – Mares Hurdle, 2m4f

Apples Jade on her way to victory in the 2017 renewal

Keep this one simple – Apples Jade wins. She’s one of my favourite horses in training and  can’t see her getting beaten. If she’s quite a way below here best then La Bague Au Roi is a very good mare and was very impressive at Ascot, looks most likely to capitalise with Benie Des Dieux an interesting runner for team Mullins

The Whistling Shrew Returns! - Cheltenham Festival Preview 2018

Hello, followers of the Shrew!

It’s that time again to provide a preview of the biggest meeting in the national hunt calendar. The second Tuesday in March is almost here and with it comes the first Cheltenham Festival in years that may not be run on ‘Good to Soft’ with rains forecast across the week and the ground having not recovered from the storm a few weeks ago. It could be an interesting angle going into the festival especially in mature markets where the assumption would be for better ground.

In this review I will provide a brief overview of ways to approach the festival from a betting perspective, take a look at which strong favourites I like (and which I don’t), preview the top 10 things to look out for during the week and give some speculative long shot SHREWDIES to get stuck into. Without further ado...  

The Shrewd Approach

Firstly, the blog should be viewed as a preview to provide knowledge over the horses before betting but it is not a betting guide. I’ve written the below to point in the right direction of some of the ways I would approach putting money down to place profitable bets at the festival!

With all races I am looking for horses who have been prepared with their race in mind, have Cheltenham form and are value compared to their chance.

Single Bets

At Cheltenham I will have at least a small bet on every race varying the stake dependent on how much value I think is in the price. Without going into too much detail the simplest way to work this out is by looking at the horses official ratings and seeing if the difference is reflected in their price. i.e. a horse rated 140 should be better than a horse rated 130. It gets more complicated when you factor in experience, course form and form in general  but it should give you a starting point.

Single each way bets have been profitable in recent years. I like these in championship races where there are one or two horses forming the market which makes the others overpriced. An example of this was when the 2016 RSA was set up as More of That vs No More Heroes, which made Blaklion (a horse with Cheltenham wins and proven stamina) overpriced and he came home at, from memory, 9/1 .

I will tend to place two or three bets in the more competitive handicaps on longer price horses (20/1 +) that I think might hit the frame.

Accumulators

With short price horses that I like I’ll tend to do a cross festival accumulator or two. This is a nice way to have an interest in the race without staking too much to get a return. Occasionally these can work out across one day as in the famous day in 2015 of Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Faugheen and (not) Annie Power who famously fell at the last. We’ve also seen success with this with doubles on Vautour and Thistlecrack for example which gives you 4/1 for the double instead of evens for either.

These could be doubles, trebles, lucky 15’s or whatever you fancy.  The guide to “Shrews Shorties” below should help if you fancy this kind of bet.

Forecasts

I will rarely do these but will recommend them if there is a race where there are two or three horses who seem clear of the field.  For example, in previous years I fancied Sprinter Sacre to beat Un De Sceaux in the Champion Chase and last year I fancied Apple’s Jade to win the mares hurdle with Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag filling the places, which they duly did. The multiplier effect of these bets means you can easily place reverse forecasts without cutting too much into the winnings if they come off. The opportunity that springs instantly to mind for this year is Apples Jade and La Bague Au Roi in the mares hurdle which returns

Each Way Multiples

I really like these at the festival and will often place quite a few different variations across the festival. These tend to be in handicaps although occasionally there’s a bigger price in the championship races I’ll throw into this. As a rough guide I’d tend to have between 8-10 horses I like in various races an will pair them off into each way doubles, trixies and Lucky 15’s, with the top two or three horses I like being in every bet, then the next tier in all the trixies and then the next tier just the doubles. There is no particular science to it other than what I think feels right. I tend to place these before the festival but occasionally will do one after day 1 or 2 when there’s still a lot of racing left.

Anything 6/1 or bigger works in these kind of bets but generally I’d be looking 12/1+ in the handicaps.

For Example in previous years a double on Diego Du Charmil 6/1 and Un Temps Pour Tout pays out 120/1

Shrew's Shorties

Samcro, the biggest talking horse of the season

I can’t believe I’ve written this much without writing about Samcro. I am fully on the bandwagon and he is the very most exciting horse coming into the week. At time of writing he’s still entered in two races and where I’d love to see him run in the Supreme (worth backing if still NRNB) it looks like the Ballymore will be his target. Unbeaten and visually super impressive this will be his biggest test to date. Although I think he is the real deal  it remains a fact that ultimately chasing will be his target and its been bandied around plenty that the great Denman was beaten in this race before going onto greater things over fences. So he is no real price now but tune in any way to see a potential legend in waiting hopefully get a first win at the festival.

Buveur D'Air looks like a banker in the Champion Hurdle

The first day of the festival sees 4 short priced favourites. Getabird follows other Ricci/Mullins/Walsh horses Douvan, Vautour and Chamagne Fever into the Supreme Novice and is a much smaller price than each without having done as much. It doesn’t look a vintage renewal so he may well win but there’s enough in there to be taking him on with. The Arkle on the other hand looks like a great race with Footpad having to fend off strong challengers both side of the Irish sea. The way he has jumped, his form as a hurdler and his preparation for the festival make him a good price for me to beat the little hankie (Petit Mouchoir) and Saint Calvados. Buveur D’Air and Apples Jade should win barring acts of God but are priced accordingly.

One of the clashes of the festival on Wednesday pits dual festival winner Altior against Min who he beat in the 2016 Supreme Novice. Some have argued Altior’s prep makes him vulnerable to Min, who with only 5 races over fences still has room for improvement. The race could become further heated if Douvan makes it but I’m going to keep faith with Nicky Henderson and say Altior will just have enough class to win.

Un De Sceaux goes for a second win in the Ryanair which has cut up quite a bit. If Cue Card can turn up in form for one last hurrah then he might be vulnerable with the latter having proven stamina but i’ll take the chance he doesn’t. Laurina has got Willie Mullins purring so you can expect her to continue Mullins’ perfect record in this. Apple’s Shakira has shown a bit of everything across the juvenile campaign. Gutsy as she is classy but her sister was beaten in this race. She comes in with more runs under her belt though and 5/2 seems fair given the mares allowance she’ll get.

My lay of the meeting for me is Getabird in the Supreme Novice. He has a nice profile, trainer, jockey etc. But when you consider Douvan and Vautour went off in this race at 3/1 or bigger and he is 6/4 at best you really have to look elsewhere.

In summary:

Horse	Race	Day	Time	Rough SP	Shrew's Verdict
Getabird	Supreme	Tuesday	13:30	13/8	Lay, yet to prove effectiveness
Footpad	Arkle	Tuesday	14:10	5/4	Back should be evens
Buveur D'Air	Champion Hurdle	Tuesday	15:30	4/9	Likely winner, poor price
Apples Jade	Mares	Tuesday	16:10	8/13	Back, good thing
Samcro	Ballymore	Wednesday	13:30	1/2	Might be Jesus, but is too short
Altior	Champion Chase	Wednesday	15:30	8/11	Back
Cause of Causes	X Country	Wednesday	16:10	5/2	Lay
Un De Sceaux	RSA	Thursday	14:50	5/4	Back
Laurina	Mares Novice	Thursday	16:50	4/6	Back, good thing
Apples Shakira	Triumph	Friday	13:30	5/2	Back tentatively
Burning Ambition	Foxhunters	Friday	16:10	3/1	Back

Top 10 Head-to-Heads

Samcro vs Michael O’Leary

THE hype horse of the season has been visually spectacular in the novice hurdle division this season in Ireland. His ultimate goal will be chasing with many already backing him as the 2020 Gold Cup winner but first he needs to prove himself on the big stage in the Ballymore. The extent of the hype lead to his owner and Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary to state he’s ‘not the second coming of Jesus Christ’ before the horse bolted up by six lengths in a grade 1 next time out. If he wins that impressively again even his famously dour owner might get on board

Altior beating Min in the 2016 Supreme Novice Hurdle

Altior vs Min (and maybe Douvan)

In the 2016 Supreme Novice Altior proved much the better against Min, winning by five lengths. Injury to Min in 2017 deprived us of a rematch over fences in the Arkle where Altior didn’t look at his best but still won fairly convincingly but finally the head-to-head is on. Though he only made his seasonal debut in Februa ry this year, Altior looked to have come out of his wind operation well and has a master in Nicky Henderson to guide him there, whereas Min still may have some improvement in him and has looked to get better with each race. With a certain gallop to be set by Special Tiara and Tingle Creek winner Politologue also in the field, add to the fact that Douvan is still entered (though i’m sceptical he’ll turn up) this could be a classic.

Footpad vs Petit Mouchoir vs Saint Calvados

Last year Petit Mouchoir and Footpad were 3^rd and 4^th in the Champion Hurdle and have both looked like highly exciting chasers. Footpad has been foot perfect and looked massively impressive most recently beating Petit Mouchoir by about 3 lengths last time out. Many believe though that Petit Mouchoir, who was returning from a lay off, will improve for the run and they will be much closer come Tuesday. Throw in the sensational jumper Saint Calvados and post wind op Brain Power and it should be a race to savour.

Might Bite vs Cheltenham

Last year I wrote of Might Bite:

'Horses for courses' rings just as true for Cheltenham as anywhere else and course form is a key guide to picking winners... He is a gelding out of Scorpion, who famously (setting aside a few notable exceptions) 'don't get up the hill'.

before reluctantly tipping him for the RSA. In the end he obliged but it wasn’t before a heart stopping drift across the track after the last towards the champagne tent before reeling back in his stable mate. He will not get away with it again this year, with form only marginally (if at all) better than his rivals an on ground less than ideal. If Nico De Boinville can master his quirks he could still have the class to be a champion.

Yanworth vs Supersundae

2017 was a year to forget for Yanworth who went off favourite in the Champion Hurdle before flopping and eventually being disqualified for having a banned substance in his system. He bounced back though at Aintree beating Supersundae over 3m which is the same distance they will race over in the Stayer’s Hurdle here. His appearance here sees trainer Alan King reversing on running him over fences this year and it will be interesting to see how he transitions back to the smaller obstacles. Supersundae, a festival winner himself in the Coral Cup has gone from strength to strength this year, only just touched off by Apples Jade in the Christmas Hurdle before downing Faugheen in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Should be a good contest!

Monalee vs Presenting Percy

Two horses that have run well over 3m at the festival before with Monalee placed in the Albert Bartlett and Presenting Percy making a mockery of the handicapper in the Pertemps. Both have looked good over fences and will battle it out in the RSA.

Cause of Causes vs Tiger Roll

Two horses trained by Gordon Elliot, both multiple Festival winners. Should be a cracker.

Un De Sceaux vs Ruby Walsh’s arms

Un De Sceaux put up THE performance of the festival last year running out of Ruby’s hands and jumping immaculately on the second circuit to win the Ryanair. Walsh will want to keep the lid on this headcase as long as possible with more certain stayers in the field he might not get away with it again.

The Bounce Factor vs Great Return from a lay off

The ‘bounce factor’ refers to a second run back after a lay off where a horse has been peaked to have a great return and then runs flat. It has been spoken about with Altior who ran well on reappearance. Where I don’t think this is relevant with him due to the way his trainer campaigns, a horse like Native River who ran massive sectionals on return at Newbury may be a candidate for this.

England vs Ireland

As always England vs Ireland is the most important competition of all! The Irish were easy winners last year but with Nicky Henderson’s string leading the way, the English may be in good position to win it back.

Shrew's Shrewdies

I will preview each day as we go but for those desperate to place an early bet, here are a few initial thoughts on horses that look well handicapped and/or a big price:

Singlefarmpayment - Ultima Handicap - Tuesday 14:50 – 8/1

Ran well last year just touched off by a nose by Un Temps Pour Tout. I’m tempted by a reverse forecast with Gold Present as two horses in race with Grade 1 potential.

Shattered Love – RSA Chase – Wednesday 14:10 – 16/1

Overpriced due to Presenting Percy and Monalee at head of market. Grade 1 winner and beat Presenting Percy 12 lengths in November when just touched off by Jury Duty. Receives Mares Allowance and could be a massive price.

Melon – Champion Hurdle – Tuesday 15:30 – 16/1 or 6/1 without favourite

Would have been a very good winner of the Supreme if not for Labaik. Weak race bar the favourite and is overpriced as long as he doesn’t pull his chance away.

Tiger Roll – Cross Country Chase – Wednesday 16:10 – 6/1

Twice festival winner and has the right trainer in Gordon Elliot. Was essentially schooled round these fences earlier in the season and

Talkischeap – Albert Bartlett – Friday 14:50 – 20/1

Battle hardened and overpriced. Nice win over 3m at Newbury last time out

Rhinestone – Champion Bumper – Wednesday 17:30 – 7/1

His race against Blackbow was best bumper this year. Fancie to reverse the form

Movewiththetimes – Brown Advisory Plate – Thursday – 9/1

Barney Dwan – Multiple entries (will update on Monday)

Mall Dini – Kim Muir (depending on Barney Dwan)