The Whisling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival 2018 Preview Day 2

Happy Samcro Day! The hype has been there since he even jumped a hurdle and so far he has done nothing not to justify it. There are some who say his times against the clock are nothing impressive and question what he’s beaten but today we find out if he is the real deal.

 

Altior puts his unbeaten record on the line in his hardest test to date

It is testament to how good connections (his owner aside) think the horse, who is still just a novice hurdler could be that he is being given the headlines on a day that features and exceptional Champion Chase. As if from nowhere we have the mouthwatering prospect of Altior vs Douvan, at their peak the best two mile chasers either side of the Irish Sea. But there are question marks as to whether either will truly be at their peak and though Ruby Walsh chooses to ride Douvan, Min is the Rich Ricci horse who seems to have come of age this season and could provide an upset. They are by no means the only contenders in a race that contains last year’s winner Special Tiara, Tingle Creek winner Politologue and other old favourites Charbel, God’s Own, Ordinary World and Ar Mad making it a stellar renewal in which anything can and probably will happen. It is a race in which hindsight will be proven to be a wonderful thing. Something is the wrong price, I’m not 100% sure what.

Not only that but there is another mouth watering clash in the RSA between Irish hopes Presenting Percy and Monalee, with Bryony Frost sure to steal the headlines if she can nurse Black Corton to a 5^th victory of his season. The Cross Country should be another great head to head with Gordon Elliott leading the way with Tiger Roll and Cause of Causes. The handicap hurdles both look tricky and the champion bumper finishes the card and is as trappy as ever.

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 – Samcro should win. Black Op 9/1 e.w. or without the favourite.

2:10 – Black Corton 7/1 e.w.

2:50 – Le Breuil 12/1, Mount Mews 16/1

3:30 – Champion Chase: Altior 11/10 just.

4:10 – Tiger Roll 11/2 ... slight ground worry. Urgent De Gregaine 16/1 e/w

4:50 – Act of Valour 12/1 and/or Malaya 14/1 e/w

5:30 – Rhinestone 7/1. Reverse Forecast Rhinestone and Blackbow

Long shot: reverese forecast on Act of Valour and Malaya at 4:50

Key Race Guide

1:30 - Ballymore Novice Hurdle, 2m5f

Jesus

I think Samcro wins this but he’s too short to back. The Ballymore tends to oddly be more of a speed test than the shorter Supreme and his win in the Deloitte Hurdle showed he has pace as well as stamina to win this. The form was given a minor boost in the fact that Paloma Blue who he beat by 9 lengths that day was 3 lengths behind the winner of the Supreme Novice. I want the horse to win too much that I can't really tell if it's a good bet or not. I think rationally if you can get odds against or evens on the day you should take it. Otherwise just sit back and admire with fingers crossed. 

Next Destination will be his main threat and has the advantage of running here before when coming 4^th in the Champion Bumper. He has beaten Cracking Smart twice this year which is good form. He is also unbeaten in three and is the one to side with if you want to oppose the favourite. Duc Des Genievres was also behind Samcro in the Deloitte and I see no reason the form will be reversed.

Black Op is the best of the English horses and is probably overpriced. May prove a good each way bet if Samcro does flop. At a bigger price Mr Whipped and Real Steel may be interesting to hit the frame but I’d side with Scarpeta as a longer priced bet.

2:10 – RSA Novice Chase, 3m1/2f

Can Bryony Frost and Black Corton cap one of the stories of the

season with a Cheltenham victory?

First thing to say is this is a brilliant race and as such the market is a little bit out of shape. The betting suggests this is a head to head between Presenting Percy and Monalee but it’s a race that often throws one up at a bigger price. Of the two market principles Monalee gave a massive boost to his form when beating Al Boum Photo (2^nd) and Dounikos (4^th) a month ago at Leopardstown. He seemed to be staying on the best of all of them and looked the most likely to enjoy the extra three furlongs. That said his hurdles form over three miles read 124 with a fall on his first chase of the distance which may not be the most encouraging sign. The 2^nd however was at the festival in the Albert Bartlett, but I’d personally have preferred him to line up in the JLT this year. It’s possible though that Presenting Percy’s win in last year’s Pertemps Final was better, though he seemed to be very leniently handicapped that day. His novice chase campaign has been hard to gauge as it’s been slightly unorthodox. His 2^nd behind Gold Cup chance Our Duke who he was in receipt of 6lbs could be read two ways, but his win over 3m5f can only be a positive for his chances of staying in these conditions. Either could win but I think both are too short given my reservations

That leaves us then with the British challenge. Black Corton has been on the go a long time and just keeps surprising connections taking in four wins, significantly two at Cheltenham, and forming a formidable partnership with Bryony Frost en route which has become one of the stories of the season. His only defeat was at the hands of Elegant Escape at slightly less than three miles and on much better ground than they’ll encounter today. The horse was initially seen as a summer horse and has just key going which isn’t exactly an attractive profile but he has to be the tentative selection at current odds.

 Ballyoptic is another horse Black Corton has beaten along the way this season and does feel a little overpriced. He always seems a ‘nearly’ horse in these big races and you feel there will be a big day in him somewhere. It could be today and he reminds me of Blaklion who won this for the same connections a few years ago but doesn’t quite have the same form in the book yet to be a challenger in this.

3:30 - FEATURE RACE: Queen Mother Champion Chase, 2m

The imperious Douvan, undefeated before injury here last year

This race has been a rollercoaster before it even started and from what seemed implausible at the beginning of the year, the big clash is on: Altior vs Douvan (vs Min vs the rest). Until the weekend it looked unlikely that Douvan would line up for this being his first race back since incurring a hairline fracture to his pelvis in a race eventually won by Special Tiara (who will likely go from the front again but find conditions not to his liking today).  Then no sooner than Douvan was declared and with Ruby Walsh aboard, Altior had some pus in his foot and was flagged as a doubt on Monday morning before a positive update was finally given on Tuesday that he would run after all. Phew.

It is hard enough to work out who would win the head to head if they had both had a perfect preparation. I would just about side with Altior as the younger horse of the two. I would side with Altior too on the preparation angle. Although Willie Mullins has an excellent history of prepping horses after a lay off (see Faugheen, Arctic Fire and Killultagh Vic as examples) this is a massive massive ask and I think Douvan has to rely on Altior not being his best to taste victory here.

I’m not overly concerned about the last minute scare for Altior and the pus in his foot. This is something we have seen happen to derby winner Harzand recently before winning his race and is really not too big a deal. The bigger concern is how fresh he is going to be having started his season in February. He won the Game Spirit well, beating Tingle Creek winner Politologue three lengths. He was not fully wound up for that so I don’t think there is a big chance of him bouncing. On past evidence, Nicky Henderson has timed horse’s fitness to perfection and so I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt again.

Altior on his way to beating Min in 2015 

Ruby Walsh is not often wrong, but whether his decision to ride Douvan is a plus for Douvan or a negative for Min we won’t know until after the race. Some would argue that even if Altior turns up 100% then Min’s improvement over fences is enough to get him a lot closer than the 7 length thrashing Altior gave him in the Supreme. It could also be argued that Altior’s win in last year’s Arkle was his least impressive victory and this test may not be his ideal but I’d argue that he was just doing what he had to that day. Min’s chance is a very real one though because he is the most talented horse in the race who has been out and done it repeatedly this season. I’m going to take Ruby Walsh’s decision as a negative for Min though and side with Altior to beat him.

This could be contradicted if you take a form line through Ordinary World literally, with Altior beating him only 15 lengths in the Arkle compared with Min's 30 lengths at Leoardstown, but it's hard to take that literally. It does however allude to Min being possibly much closer to Altior on ability than he was over hurdles. 

Altior wins his races between the last to fences and I don’t think we’ve ever seen him have to rely try. The test here is how he will fare up against not one but two top class rivals from the same stable. Between them they may have more to put it up to Altior than either would alone. When push comes to shove I think he still has a little more to find if he needs it but we won’t know until it happens (or doesn’t). You are basically taking a price on whether Nicky Henderson has managed to get him here 100% fit or not in my view and odds against seems reasonable for that. But expect a real horserace if Douvan turns up 100% too.

Min looks most likely to pick up the pieces if it all comes apart but don’t be afraid to back one at a big price for hitting the frame. Charbel looked like he would’ve given Altior a race last year before falling two out and may return to form when back here.

It is a race where there is potential for every surprising outcome to happen and I really hope all of the horses are able to give their best account on the day. Can’t wait!

4:10 – Cross Country Chase, 3m6f

Cause of Causes bids to retain his Cross Country Crown

Long gone are the days that this was a race for horses who’d lost their way and needed a new challenge to freshen them up. This is now a proper race with proper horses, three of which have been 2^nd in a Grand National in Cause of Causes, The Last Samuri and Saint Are. All of them make some appeal with Causes of Causes being the most obvious to retain his title. It will be interesting however to see how The Last Samuri takes to the banks.

The other Cheltenham hero is the enigmatic Tiger Roll who has the unusual resume of winning the triumph hurdle over 2m and the National Hunt Cup Chase over 4m, so you could say he’s versatile. He ran moderately over these obstacles in December but tracks a very similar route into the race that Cause of Causes did last year and I think he has the class to improve for this and win.

Josies Orders, Bless The Wings and Auvergnat are by no means out of it and would be good bets if going off at a decent each way price but I think the one to keep on side may be French raider Urgent De Gregaine who brings a new meaning to under the radar. He won here in January 2017 and has been lightly raced since. I think he’s overpriced.

4:50 – Fred Winter Hanicap Hurdle, 2m1f

I haven’t had much time to look into this but it pays to follow Paul Nicholls in this race and its not uncommon he has the first two home. So that’s my selection!

5:30 – Champion Bumper, 2m

The best bumper form on offer this season was when Blackbow beat Rhinestone. On available evidence they’re the best horses in the race. I’d have Rhinestone to reverse the form on the better ground, but may be worth a forecast too.