Following the trend in recent years, the first day
of the Festival sees short price favourites tackling the Grade 1 races. The
Champion Hurdle sees Buveur D’Air looking to retain his crown and he is well
fancied to do so against opposition with more than one or two questions to
answer. If he’s the king of day 1 then the queen is undoubtedly Apples Jade who
goes in the mares hurdle. She’s gutsy and classy and I think this is her ideal
trip. I personally would’ve liked to see her take on the boys in the Champion
Hurdle but she must surely be a shoo-in here despite the presence of some
exciting opposition.
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| Buveur D'Air bids to retain the Champion Hurdle |
Getabird bids to give Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh
another Supreme winner in the colours of Rich Ricci to follow in the footsteps
of Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan and considering the prices those three
went off at he is ridiculously priced to do so despite his obvious class.
Speaking of footsteps, Footpad leads the market in one of the contests of the
whole festival. He has been foot perfect and absolutely relishes fences, but
will have to be to fend off an improving Petit Mouchoir, Saint Calvados and
Brain Power.
The Ultima is always one of the best handicaps of
the festival and Nicky Henderson seems to have a strong hand this year. The
four miler sees the amateur jockeys give the staying stars of the future a
spin. The card closes with a novice chase handicap over 2m4f.
Stay Shrewd
Shrew's
Shrewdies
1:30 – Mengli Kahn 14/1 e.w. or Kalashnikov 5/1 (Getabird for multiples, see below)
2:10 – Footpad
5/4 (NAP)
2:50 – Shantou
Flyer 20/1, Cogry 25/1 e.w.
3:30 – FEATURE RACE, Champion Hurde: Buveur D’Air
will win, but Melon 6/1 without the favourite
4:10 – Apples
Jade to win, or, Apples Jade-La Bague Au Roi forecast, or, trifecta with Apples
Jade to win and La Bague Au Roi and Benie Des Dieux in behind.
4:50 - Mossback 6/1
5:30 – Barney
Dwan 8/1, or, Mr Whitaker 10/1
Multiples
– Buveur D’Air, Apples Jade and Footpad Treble, or make it a lucky 15 or 4-fold
if you like Getabird
Key Race
Guide
1:30 – Supreme
Novice, 2m
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| Is it a Getabird is it a plane? |
Getabird looked impressive when
easily beating Mengli Kahn by nine
lengths at Punchestown in January. He will have been freshened up since then
and looks like the obvious contender to
go close in this. Mengli Kahn had looked to be a leading fancy before running
out at Leopardstown and was probably still feeling the effects when beaten. He
could still bounce back if coming on for better ground and at current odds I’d
take him each way to hit the frame vs Getabird to win.
On the
other side of the Irish Sea Kalashnikov laid
down his claims for this with a good win in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. On
official ratings he is in line with Getabird and is more battle hardened having
had 4 races compared to Getabird’s two. I’m not sure he has the same speed and
class but the odds mean he still may be a good bet. His only defeat came at the hands of Summerville Boy who seemed to relish the
heavy ground at Sandown – I’d expect Kalashnikov’s speed to enable him to
reverse the form on better ground.
First Flow is probably overpriced
based on two very easy wins on heavy and won on soft before that. It will be
interesting to see how he goes on better ground but he probably has 8lbs to
find on the market principles. Slate
House is one to look out for in the future but I’m not sure this will be
his day.
The
form from last year’s Champion Bumper is represented by Debuchet (2nd) Claimantakinforgan (3rd) and Western Ryder (5th). Debuchet
seems to have not foun the same level of form over obstacles but the
other two have looked good over hurdles at some point this season before
disappointing. Could have each way chances.
2:10 – Arkle Novice Chase, 2m
 |
| Footpad hasn't touched a twig and heads a compact field |
A compact
but excellent field for this. Petit
Mouchoir and Footpad were 3rd
and 4th in last years Champion Hurdle with Brain Power quite a way back in 8th. The two Irish
horses have met in their last run with Petit Mouchoir coming back from a minor
injury. It is likely he will come on for the run and many have pointed to the
fact he was staying on to close the gap on Footpad on the line however I think
Footpad was being eased down come the end. Also looking back at last year’s
champion hurdle, Footpad seemed to get up the hill better than Petit Mouchoir
despite eventually finishing 4th. I’d expect his jumping will get
him to the front and his class to let him stay there.
Saint Calvados has been excellent since transferring to Harry
Whittingdon and has won his last 3 in small fields. On official ratings he’s up
there with Footpad and he is a good jumper. His hurdles form however was
nowhere near the front two which would make him not have the right sort of profile for this and may mean
he doesn’t have the requisite speed. I like him a lot but I’m not sure he has
the class or experience of the favourite.
Brain
Power is yet to really show the potential that is allegedly there so wouldn’t
be a fancy for me. I think the market has it right and Footpad will win.
If Robinshill wins then the bookies go home
very happy.
3:30 -
FEATURE RACE: Champion Hurdle, 2m
Buveur D’Air bids to
be the first horse since Hardy Eustace to retain Champion Hurdles in back to
back seasons and it is really through lack of opposition that he finds himself
such a strong favourite in the market. He won easily last year and has looked
slick in his wins this season, even though he hasn’t beaten much. in doing so.
In fact it may be how slick he is over a hurdle that is his biggest danger as he takes the hurdles shockingly low
sometimes but he hasn’t fallen yet and I expect a clear round should be enough
to win.
 |
Can Willie Mullins perform a miracle and get Faugheen
back to his best?
|
That fact isn’t going to stop Willie Mullins taking
him on though and he fires a contingent at this of Yorkhill,
Faugheen, Melon and Wicklow Brave. If
Faugheen reproduces the form of his first run this season he could well cause an upset, but
it would be one hell of a training performance considering his last two runs.
The horse was due to come back last season but had a minor setback. He was then
kept on the go all through the summer before being impressive on return. We can
write the Christmas run off as being attributed to the ‘bounce factor’ but the
last run behind Supersundae in the Irish Champion Hurdle showed that although
his heart was still in it his legs just couldn’t carry him there. He wears
cheekpieces in a bid to freshen him up and even a repeat of the Leoardstown run
could see him come 2nd but it’d be something truly special if he
were to beat the favourite.
Even more disappointing than Faugheen’s decline has
got to be that of Yorkhill, though that may be more down to the bizarre
decisions of connections who couldn’t decide what this horses trip was. He now
drops back to hurdles and again could hit the frame but has so far shown
nothing this season to make him a worthwhile bet. On the other side of the coin
is Wicklow Brave who is a dual
performer over hurdles and on the flat. He’s ran well in this before and could
again, but is priced accordingly.
I’m willing to give Melon a chance of getting into
the places. He pulled like a maniac in the International Hurdle before coming a
close third. He was poor last time out behind Faugheen but his Supreme run last
year was nothing to be ashamed of and he may improve for a return to spring
ground. 20/1 seems a fair price to find out
It might be a Henderson 1-2 though: My Tent or Yours has been second in
three Champion Hurdles and has done nothing this season to make you think he
can’t do it again despite being an 11 year old now. Going on just this seasons
form he has to have a chance of being 2nd again but is priced
accordingly.
At the other end of the age scale, Elgin is an interesting supplementary
entry and may well stand a chance of hitting the frame. He has been progressive
through handicaps and deserves a chance here. Despite having won at the track
his 7h in last year’s Supreme wasn’t great so I could leave him alone here.
I could see one or two hitting the frame at a big
price if others don’t perform. Mick Jazz and
John Constable look most likely for
this if the race does fall apart.
4:10 – Mares
Hurdle, 2m4f
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| Apples Jade on her way to victory in the 2017 renewal |
Keep this one simple – Apples Jade wins. She’s one of my favourite horses in training
and can’t see her getting beaten. If
she’s quite a way below here best then La
Bague Au Roi is a very good mare and was very impressive at Ascot, looks
most likely to capitalise with Benie Des
Dieux an interesting runner for team Mullins
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