Hello, followers of the Shrew!
It’s that time again to provide a
preview of the biggest meeting in the national hunt calendar. The second
Tuesday in March is almost here and with it comes the first Cheltenham Festival
in years that may not be run on ‘Good to Soft’ with rains forecast across the
week and the ground having not recovered from the storm a few weeks ago. It
could be an interesting angle going into the festival especially in mature
markets where the assumption would be for better ground.
In this review I will provide a brief
overview of ways to approach the festival from a betting perspective, take a
look at which strong favourites I like (and which I don’t), preview the top 10
things to look out for during the week and give some speculative long shot
SHREWDIES to get stuck into. Without further ado...
The Shrewd Approach
Firstly, the blog should be viewed as
a preview to provide knowledge over the horses before betting but it is not a betting
guide. I’ve written the below to point in the right direction of some of the
ways I would approach putting money down to place profitable bets at the
festival!
With all races I am looking for horses
who have been prepared with their race in mind, have Cheltenham form and are
value compared to their chance.
Single Bets
At Cheltenham I will have at least a
small bet on every race varying the stake dependent on how much value I think
is in the price. Without going into too much detail the simplest way to work
this out is by looking at the horses official ratings and seeing if the
difference is reflected in their price. i.e. a horse rated 140 should be better
than a horse rated 130. It gets more complicated when you factor in experience,
course form and form in general but it
should give you a starting point.
Single each way bets have been
profitable in recent years. I like these in championship races where there are
one or two horses forming the market which makes the others overpriced. An
example of this was when the 2016 RSA was set up as More of That vs No More
Heroes, which made Blaklion (a horse with Cheltenham wins and proven stamina)
overpriced and he came home at, from memory, 9/1 .
I will tend to place two or three bets
in the more competitive handicaps on longer price horses (20/1 +) that I think
might hit the frame.
Accumulators
With short price horses that I like I’ll
tend to do a cross festival accumulator or two. This is a nice way to have an
interest in the race without staking too much to get a return. Occasionally
these can work out across one day as in the famous day in 2015 of Douvan, Un De
Sceaux, Faugheen and (not) Annie Power who famously fell at the last. We’ve
also seen success with this with doubles on Vautour and Thistlecrack for example
which gives you 4/1 for the double instead of evens for either.
These could be doubles, trebles, lucky
15’s or whatever you fancy. The guide to
“Shrews Shorties” below should help if you fancy this kind of bet.
Forecasts
I will rarely do these
but will recommend them if there is a race where there are two or three horses
who seem clear of the field. For
example, in previous years I fancied Sprinter Sacre to beat Un De Sceaux in the
Champion Chase and last year I fancied Apple’s Jade to win the mares hurdle
with Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag filling the places, which they duly did. The multiplier
effect of these bets means you can easily place reverse forecasts without cutting
too much into the winnings if they come off. The opportunity that springs
instantly to mind for this year is Apples Jade and La Bague Au Roi in the mares
hurdle which returns
Each Way Multiples
I really like these at the festival
and will often place quite a few different variations across the festival.
These tend to be in handicaps although occasionally there’s a bigger price in
the championship races I’ll throw into this. As a rough guide I’d tend to have
between 8-10 horses I like in various races an will pair them off into each way
doubles, trixies and Lucky 15’s, with the top two or three horses I like being
in every bet, then the next tier in all the trixies and then the next tier just
the doubles. There is no particular science to it other than what I think feels
right. I tend to place these before the festival but occasionally will do one
after day 1 or 2 when there’s still a lot of racing left.
Anything 6/1 or bigger works in these
kind of bets but generally I’d be looking 12/1+ in the handicaps.
For Example in previous years a double
on Diego Du Charmil 6/1 and Un Temps Pour Tout pays out 120/1
Shrew's Shorties
 |
| Samcro, the biggest talking horse of the season |
I can’t believe I’ve written this much without
writing about Samcro. I am fully on the bandwagon and he is the very most
exciting horse coming into the week. At time of writing he’s still entered in
two races and where I’d love to see him run in the Supreme (worth backing if
still NRNB) it looks like the Ballymore will be his target. Unbeaten and
visually super impressive this will be his biggest test to date. Although I
think he is the real deal it remains a
fact that ultimately chasing will be his target and its been bandied around
plenty that the great Denman was beaten in this race before going onto greater
things over fences. So he is no real price now but tune in any way to see a
potential legend in waiting hopefully get a first win at the festival.
 |
| Buveur D'Air looks like a banker in the Champion Hurdle |
The first day of the festival sees 4 short priced
favourites. Getabird follows other Ricci/Mullins/Walsh horses Douvan, Vautour
and Chamagne Fever into the Supreme Novice and is a much smaller price than
each without having done as much. It doesn’t look a vintage renewal so he may
well win but there’s enough in there to be taking him on with. The Arkle on the
other hand looks like a great race with Footpad having to fend off strong
challengers both side of the Irish sea. The way he has jumped, his form as a
hurdler and his preparation for the festival make him a good price for me to
beat the little hankie (Petit Mouchoir) and Saint Calvados. Buveur D’Air and
Apples Jade should win barring acts of God but are priced accordingly.
One of the clashes of the festival on Wednesday
pits dual festival winner Altior against Min who he beat in the 2016 Supreme
Novice. Some have argued Altior’s prep makes him vulnerable to Min, who with
only 5 races over fences still has room for improvement. The race could become
further heated if Douvan makes it but I’m going to keep faith with Nicky
Henderson and say Altior will just have enough class to win.
Un De Sceaux goes for a second win in the Ryanair
which has cut up quite a bit. If Cue Card can turn up in form for one last
hurrah then he might be vulnerable with the latter having proven stamina but i’ll
take the chance he doesn’t. Laurina has got Willie Mullins purring so you can
expect her to continue Mullins’ perfect record in this. Apple’s Shakira has
shown a bit of everything across the juvenile campaign. Gutsy as she is classy
but her sister was beaten in this race. She comes in with more runs under her
belt though and 5/2 seems fair given the mares allowance she’ll get.
My lay of the meeting for me is Getabird in the
Supreme Novice. He has a nice profile, trainer, jockey etc. But when you
consider Douvan and Vautour went off in this race at 3/1 or bigger and he is
6/4 at best you really have to look elsewhere.
In summary:
|
Horse
|
Race
|
Day
|
Time
|
Rough SP
|
Shrew's Verdict
|
|
Getabird
|
Supreme
|
Tuesday
|
13:30
|
13/8
|
Lay, yet to prove effectiveness
|
|
Footpad
|
Arkle
|
Tuesday
|
14:10
|
5/4
|
Back should be evens
|
|
Buveur D'Air
|
Champion Hurdle
|
Tuesday
|
15:30
|
4/9
|
Likely winner, poor price
|
|
Apples Jade
|
Mares
|
Tuesday
|
16:10
|
8/13
|
Back, good thing
|
|
Samcro
|
Ballymore
|
Wednesday
|
13:30
|
1/2
|
Might be Jesus, but is too short
|
|
Altior
|
Champion Chase
|
Wednesday
|
15:30
|
8/11
|
Back
|
|
Cause of Causes
|
X Country
|
Wednesday
|
16:10
|
5/2
|
Lay
|
|
Un De Sceaux
|
RSA
|
Thursday
|
14:50
|
5/4
|
Back
|
|
Laurina
|
Mares Novice
|
Thursday
|
16:50
|
4/6
|
Back, good thing
|
|
Apples Shakira
|
Triumph
|
Friday
|
13:30
|
5/2
|
Back tentatively
|
|
Burning Ambition
|
Foxhunters
|
Friday
|
16:10
|
3/1
|
Back
|
Top 10 Head-to-Heads
Samcro vs Michael O’Leary
THE hype horse of the season has been visually
spectacular in the novice hurdle division this season in Ireland. His ultimate
goal will be chasing with many already backing him as the 2020 Gold Cup winner
but first he needs to prove himself on the big stage in the Ballymore. The
extent of the hype lead to his owner and Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary to state he’s
‘not the second coming of Jesus Christ’ before the horse bolted up by six
lengths in a grade 1 next time out. If he wins that impressively again even his
famously dour owner might get on board
 |
| Altior beating Min in the 2016 Supreme Novice Hurdle |
Altior vs Min (and maybe Douvan)
In the 2016 Supreme Novice Altior proved much the
better against Min, winning by five lengths. Injury to Min in 2017 deprived us
of a rematch over fences in the Arkle where Altior didn’t look at his best but
still won fairly convincingly but finally the head-to-head is on. Though he
only made his seasonal debut in Februa ry this year, Altior looked to have come
out of his wind operation well and has a master in Nicky Henderson to guide him
there, whereas Min still may have some improvement in him and has looked to get
better with each race. With a certain gallop to be set by Special Tiara and
Tingle Creek winner Politologue also in the field, add to the fact that Douvan is
still entered (though i’m sceptical he’ll turn up) this could be a classic.
Footpad vs Petit Mouchoir vs Saint Calvados
Last
year Petit Mouchoir and Footpad were 3rd and 4th in the
Champion Hurdle and have both looked like highly exciting chasers. Footpad has
been foot perfect and looked massively impressive most recently beating Petit
Mouchoir by about 3 lengths last time out. Many believe though that Petit
Mouchoir, who was returning from a lay off, will improve for the run and they
will be much closer come Tuesday. Throw in the sensational jumper Saint
Calvados and post wind op Brain Power and it should be a race to savour.
|
|
|
|
Last year I wrote of Might Bite:
'Horses
for courses' rings just as true for Cheltenham as anywhere else and course form
is a key guide to picking winners... He is a gelding out of
Scorpion, who famously (setting aside a few notable
exceptions) 'don't get up the hill'.
before reluctantly tipping him for the RSA. In the
end he obliged but it wasn’t before a heart stopping drift across the track
after the last towards the champagne tent before reeling back in his stable mate.
He will not get away with it again this year, with form only marginally (if at
all) better than his rivals an on ground less than ideal. If Nico De Boinville
can master his quirks he could still have the class to be a champion.
Yanworth vs Supersundae
2017
was a year to forget for Yanworth who went off favourite in the Champion Hurdle
before flopping and eventually being disqualified for having a banned substance
in his system. He bounced back though at Aintree beating Supersundae over 3m
which is the same distance they will race over in the Stayer’s Hurdle here. His
appearance here sees trainer Alan King reversing on running him over fences
this year and it will be interesting to see how he transitions back to the
smaller obstacles. Supersundae, a festival winner himself in the Coral Cup has
gone from strength to strength this year, only just touched off by Apples Jade
in the Christmas Hurdle before downing Faugheen in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Should
be a good contest!
Monalee vs Presenting Percy
Two
horses that have run well over 3m at the festival before with Monalee placed in
the Albert Bartlett and Presenting Percy making a mockery of the handicapper in
the Pertemps. Both have looked good over fences and will battle it out in the
RSA.
Cause of Causes vs Tiger Roll
Two
horses trained by Gordon Elliot, both multiple Festival winners. Should be a
cracker.
Un De Sceaux vs Ruby Walsh’s arms
Un De Sceaux put up THE performance of the festival
last year running out of Ruby’s hands and jumping immaculately on the second circuit
to win the Ryanair. Walsh will want to keep the lid on this headcase as long as
possible with more certain stayers in the field he might not get away with it
again.
The Bounce Factor vs Great Return from a lay off
The
‘bounce factor’ refers to a second run back after a lay off where a horse has
been peaked to have a great return and then runs flat. It has been spoken about
with Altior who ran well on reappearance. Where I don’t think this is relevant
with him due to the way his trainer campaigns, a horse like Native River who
ran massive sectionals on return at Newbury may be a candidate for this.
England vs Ireland
As always England vs Ireland is the most important
competition of all! The Irish were easy winners last year but with Nicky
Henderson’s string leading the way, the English may be in good position to win
it back.
Shrew's Shrewdies
I will preview each day as we go but for those
desperate to place an early bet, here are a few initial thoughts on horses that look well handicapped and/or a big price:
Singlefarmpayment - Ultima Handicap - Tuesday 14:50
– 8/1
Ran well last year just touched off by a nose by Un
Temps Pour Tout. I’m tempted by a reverse forecast with Gold Present as two
horses in race with Grade 1 potential.
Shattered Love – RSA Chase – Wednesday 14:10 – 16/1
Overpriced due to Presenting Percy and Monalee at
head of market. Grade 1 winner and beat Presenting Percy 12 lengths in November
when just touched off by Jury Duty. Receives Mares Allowance and could be a
massive price.
Melon – Champion Hurdle – Tuesday 15:30 – 16/1 or 6/1
without favourite
Would have been a very good winner of the Supreme
if not for Labaik. Weak race bar the favourite and is overpriced as long as he doesn’t
pull his chance away.
Tiger Roll – Cross Country Chase – Wednesday 16:10 –
6/1
Twice festival winner and has the right trainer in
Gordon Elliot. Was essentially schooled round these fences earlier in the
season and
Talkischeap – Albert Bartlett – Friday 14:50 – 20/1
Battle hardened and overpriced. Nice win over 3m at
Newbury last time out
Rhinestone – Champion Bumper – Wednesday 17:30 – 7/1
His race against Blackbow was best bumper this
year. Fancie to reverse the form
Movewiththetimes – Brown Advisory Plate – Thursday –
9/1
Barney Dwan – Multiple entries (will update on
Monday)
Mall Dini – Kim Muir (depending on Barney Dwan)
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