Today sees a competitive Stayer’s Hurdle as
its main feature with the market poised to send any one of three horses off
favourite. Proven performers Yanworth and Supersundae both have question marks
over their head and will need to fend off the lightly raced hothead Sam Spinner
if they are to be victorious in a race also featuring old favourites
UnowhatImeanharry and The New One.
Speaking of old favourites...The feature performance
on this day last year was undoubtedly Un De Sceaux who tugged his
way to the
front way too early in the Ryanair and put in an electric round of jumping to
stay there. He is a proven mudlark but this distance in conditions will be
another sort of test and may play into the hands of the evergreen Cue Card who
(I backed) to win this race at 5/2 a mere 5 years ago. Either would be a
massively popular winner.
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| Un de Sceaux bids for back-to-back Ryanair Chases |
Laurina looks a good thing in the Mares Novice
to make it three out of three for Mullins since the race was first introduced
in 2016. The JLT could well be heading to Mullins too with Invitation Only just
about favourite to beat a strong English contingent headed by Modus and
Terrafort. The two handicaps look as ridiculously difficult to solve as ever
but I’ll try anyway...
Shrew's Shrewdies
1:30 – Invitation Only 3/1 or Shattered Love 9/1
2:10 – Delta Work 12/1
2:50 – Un De Sceaux 11/10 or Frodon 12/1 e.w.
3:30 – Stayers Hurdle: Sam Spinner 7/2 (Nap) or Wholestone 20/1 e.w.
4:10 - Movewiththetimes 9/1 e.w.
4:50 – Laurina 8/11
5:30 – Mall Dini 6/1
Key Race Guide
1:30 – JLT Novice Chase, 2m5f
Willie Mullins has an excellent record in this
and is represented by Invitation Only who
brings Grade 1 form to the table in a good third behind Monalee over this
distance at Punchestown.
Terrefort keeps winning despite his
trainer not thinking he’s that good. Although not far off the favourite on
ratings he hasn’t really beaten much and it’s all been at a lower level than
that of Invitation Only. The slightly better form is held by Modus who has looked much more consistent
over fences than he did hurdles and he looks the most likely of the British
horses. Finains Oscar has potential
to turn up but on this seasons evidence can be left alone.
Benatar is by Benefficial who
certainly has a good record at Cheltenham but his winners have tended to come
in handicap company and I’m not sure he’ll have quite the class to win this.
Speaking of sires, Shattered Love represents
the flat legend Yeats and has looked excellent when beating Jury Duty to win a
grade 1 last time out. She will definitely stay further than this and that
could serve her well in the ground. She probably has a couple of lengths still
to find on the market principles but its not out of the question and she is the
only grade 1 winner in the field.
I have a terrible history of trying to oppose
Willie Mullins favourites in this race to little avail so I’ll put up Shattered Love in
the hopeless expectation that Invitation Only will win.
2:50 – Ryanair Chase, 2m5f
This has suddenly become one of the most exciting races of the festival
with Un De Sceaux bidding to retain
his title. Although he has settled better in recent years, the atmosphere of
last years festival lit him up, leading to one of the best displays of the year
when dragging Ruby Walsh to the front with a circuit to go and staying there. In
behind that day was Sub Lieutenant and
Aso, who with all due respect are not the same level of opposition that he
faces today. Against better stayers he may well be vulnerable.
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| Cue Card bids for one last hurrah in a race he won 5 years ago |
Over the past 7 seasons there haven’t been many better than Cue Card who must have racings greatest
constitution. Now in his 12th year, his form has become a little
patchier but he ran exceptionally well last time out at Ascot behind Waiting
Patiently. If Un De Sceaux goes to quick in front he may be there to pick up
the pieces as might the improving Balko
Des Flos who split Outlander and Road to Respect at Leopardstown in
December.
Cloudy Dream and Frodon are both good horses but it would
take a big step forward for them to win here. Either could hit the
frame and both have very good course form, Cloudy Dream in the Arkle behind Altior and Frodon in Grade 3 handicap company when beating Ultima 2nd Shantou Flyer by a mean 17 lengths with Ultima winner Coo Star Sivola in 4th. Looks like good form now..
It’s a tough call and although Cue Card probably represents the best
value, I’m going to go heart over head and tip Un De Sceaux to keep his cool
for long enough to get home. If he doesn’t quite get it then Frodon has course
and distance form that could count for a lot.
3:30 - FEATURE RACE: Stayers
Hurdle
A difficult puzzle to solve with three horses
vying for favouritism all of whom come into this race with very different
preparations. Supersundae in many
ways seems the obvious one having won the coral cup last year and providing a
shock win over Faugheen over 2m in the Irish Champion Hurdle. He has undoubted
class but there is a nagging doubt about his ability to stay having been set to
beat Apple’s Jade over 3m before the mare chased him down and eventually won
comfortably with she herself a doubtful stayer. On the ground I don’t know if I
can fancy him.
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| Yanworth bids to break his festival hoodoo |
Yanworth has proven himself both
over 3m and on the ground and was victorious over Supersundae at the trip at
Aintree last season and I think he has the edge of the two today. He is a horse
who is probably underrated and doesn’t get the credit he deserves, but the fact
remained that he has come here twice and been beaten on both occasions, once
over hurdles by Yorkhill and last year tamely fading out in the Champion Hurdle
when favourite. He is a class act and if the real Yanworth shows up he may be
hard to beat but he has not in any way been prepared for this race. His
campaign this year has all been over fences and although he’s done a fair job
over the larger obstacles – notably when seeing off Willoughby Court here on
heavy – you wonder how easily he’ll transition back and whether 3m on this
ground may be just a little too far.
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| On the up - Sam Spinner could improve to win this |
One horse that will love the stamina test is Sam Spinner. I saw him at Haydock in a
handicap earlier in the season with my mate Dave McDonna (Hi Dave!). The race
was on awful awful ground the day that Bristol De Mai won the Betfair Chase. HE
won by about 17 lengths going away and I said to myself “If that horse doesn’t
win the stayers hurdle then I’m a Dutchman!” The Dutchman fittingly being the
horse he dished out the drubbing to. But in all seriousness... he has
subsequently gone on to win at grade 1 level with Unowhatimeanharry, Lil Rockerfeller and The Worlds End all well beaten behind. It may be Cheltenham blog
fatigue but looking at that form now 7/2 might be a shade generous.... He is
still a young horse and we don’t know a lot about him yet but I’d say if he can
repeat his last two runs he is the winner of this. One doubt is he could be more effective over a flat track but that is yet to be tested so we'll find out today.
Unowhatimeanharry has been given a more gentle
preparation this year and it woulnd’t be the biggest surprise if he bounced
back with a win. He has each way value but this looks on paper a harder race
than last time. Wholestone is an
improving horse though who I tipped each way in the Albert Bartlett last year
where he ran on into a good third. That’s good course form and he’s gone on
this year to win a Grade 2 before just being touched off by Agrapart. Others
have slightly stronger form but conditions are certain to suit.
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| Old favourite The New One finally gets a chance at the longer trip |
I nearly forgot to mention The New One who finally gets a shot at a
longer trip. This is going to be a real slog for him and as gutsy as he is it’s
doubtful it’s going to be his day. Just hope the old boy gives a good account
of himself!
4:50 – Mares Novice, 2m1f
Laurina should win to maintain
Willie Mullins perfect record in this. Maria’s
Benefit is the obvious danger, so maybe a forecast if you fancy it.
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