The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival Preview Day 1

It's here. 4 days of the best national hunt racing anywhere in the world. Day 1 is always my favourite day with four grade ones and the best chasing handicap of the week in the Ultima. From the moment the tape goes up in the Supreme it is non-stop quality action.

The feature race is the Champion Hurdle. With it's two previous winners in Annie Power and

The New One would be a massively popular (if not

unexpected) winner of the Champion Hurdle on his 4th attempt

Faugheen out through injury this years renewal should be fascinating with the runners much closer to one another on official ratings. At the head of the market two JP McManus horses have good chances in Yanworth and Bueveur D'Air. The former has only been beaten once (in last years Neptune) and although not flashy has ground out three wins this term in key trials. Those wins included a 4 length beating of The New One in the Christmas Hurdle who returns for a 4th crack at this and under new front running tactics may be surprisingly hard to pass coming up the hill. I cannot think of a more popular winner.

In a move that speaks volumes of the lack of a true star in this years race Buveur D'Air switches back from fences to take his chance here, but his trainer is three-handed with progressive handicapper Brain Power and old favourite My Tent or Yours also lining up. The story of the race for me however would undoubtedly be if the novice and 2015 Champion Bumper winner Moon Racer can win this - the decision being made late on to opt for this rather than the Supreme - I love this horse but am devastated he goes here instead of the novice alternative, but none of that will matter if he somehow manages to cross the line first.

To do so he must also face a strong Irish challenge  Willie Mullins has nowhere near the strength that he has had in previous years but runs Triumph 3rd Footpad and the highly enigmatic Wicklow Brave (County Hurdle and Irish Leger winner!). Ireland's best chance, on odds at least, is Petit Mouchoir who seems to have come on leaps and bounds for the transfer to Gordon Elliott but there is a big question mark around whether this is his course.

Altior wins the Supreme and will be a star name on day 1 again

If you squint a little you can also see Buveur D'Air chasing him up the

hill in 3rd...

For all the excitement and unanswered questions of the big race however, the days star attraction is surely long odds-on Arkle favourite Altior. He was imperious when winning last years Supreme and would have won this year's Champion Hurdle if not being switched to the larger obstacles. He has been superb so far and as such comes into todays race with a rating higher than both Sprinter Sacre and Douvan at the same points in their respective careers - he will surely be a joy to behold.

It is doubtful we will see a horse as good as Altior in this year's Supreme which seems like a complete puzzle.Moon Racer, Movewiththetimes and Neon Wolf are either injured or preferring other targets and Willie Mullins runs Melon, a fruity favourite who has only ever run once in a maiden. It could throw up a weird result but is sure to set the meeting up as perfectly as always.

The mares hurdle has felt like something of a formality in the last decade with Mullins horses dominating. But this year it is fiercely competitive with both Limini (Mares Novice winner) and Vroum Vroum Mag (2016 mares winner) set to take eachother on. Controversially Ruby Walsh opts for the younger filly in Limini who beat the third big contender, Apple's Jade, last time out. Apple's Jade was of course one of the stars among the 60 horses moved from Willie Mullin's yard by Ryanair owners, the O'Leary's at the start of the year to the benefit of Irish champion trainer elect Gordon Elliott. She comes into her own on better spring ground and it will be a fascinating race between Mullins and his former owners.

Outside of the championship races the Ultima looks like one of the best handicaps of the year and will be fascinating as will the ever competitive novice handicap that closes the card. At 16:50 it will be amateur jockey's to the fore in the 4 mile novice chase named this year touchingly after JT McNamara who tragically lost his life last year after a long standing disability resulting from a fall at the 2013 festival. He was long associated with the colours of JP McManus who sends the top rated Edwulf, under the stewardship of Joseph O'Brien, to claim what I'm sure would be an emotional victory here.

So, plenty to enjoy but most importantly gamble significantly (and responsibly) and...

Stay Shrewd.

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 - Ballyandy 4/1 or Elgin 25/1 e/w

2:10 - Altior (no bet) - If you do not have a Paddy Power account then you can open with a special offer on an Altior (1/4 today) and Douvan (2/7 tomorrow) double to win at 10/1 paid as free bets up to a maximum stake of £10 - which seems like a good offer to me.

2:50 - Singlefarmpayment 10/1 (nap) or A Good Skin 28/1 e/w

3:30 - The Champion Hurdle - Yanworth 3/1 

4:10 - Apples Jade 4/1 - Maybe a good race to play trifectas with Apples Jade, Vroum Vroum Mag and Limini who are well clear of the rest on ratings.

4:50 - Edwulf 11/2 or Beware the Bear 8/1 e/w

5:30 - Gold Present 10/1 e/w and/or Mixboy 16/1 e/w

Or if you feel like a random one: David Pipe trained/Professor Caroline Tisdall & Bryan Dew owned treble of 2:50 Un Temps Pour Tout, 3:30 Moon Racer and 4:50 Champers on Ice which pays something like 1200/1

Race-by-Race Guide

1:30 - Supreme Novice Hurdle, 2m

A race in which legends are born looks massively competitive this year. In the weeks leading up to

What kind of name is Melon for a race horse? And more importantly

does he care?

the festival it has looked like nobody has actually wanted to win it. Willie Mullins has a superb record having saddled Douvan, Vautour and Champagne Fever (with Min a good second to Altior) to victory in the last few years so it is no surprise he has the favourite again in the form of Melon who is the choice of Ruby Walsh. He has been the talking horse all season and did nothing to disappoint when scoring in his maiden hurdle and is a winner on the flat in France. But so far that is all he has done. He may be the next messiah but as it stands I just can't take 11/4 on him for this race.

But if he isn't quite as good as Willie Mullins seems to think, then what will beat him?

Well, Mullins has three others himself. Cilaos Emery doesn't seem to have much chance and Crack Mome is yet to show he has the potential to win this. The challenger of interest is very much Bunk of Early who was a good second to Barcadys last time out. His two runs over hurdles so far in his career put him in good stead for this test and he can't be too far behind Melon on home work if the market is anything to go by. My one concern is that he was headed in the closing stages by a horse that is likely going for the Neptune. The Supreme and Neptune are weird races in that the Supreme, the shorter of the two, tends to have an emphasis on stamina and the Neptune has the emphasis on speed - the fact that Barcadys beat him to me leaves a big question mark and is perhaps the reason Ruby chooses to ride Melon.

The winners of all of the traditional UK trials bar one don't take part here; either preferring other targets or being out injured. From those trials that only really leaves Ballyandy who ground out a good victory in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and has form tied into Champion Hurdle bound Moon Racer. In his favour he would have a nice running style for this being held up just off the pace with stamina to get home - he has shown good form at Cheltenham previously and we know he'll handle the stiff turns and undulations. Perhaps I am being too greedy after the string of brilliant winners in recent years, but it feels like there is probably value elsewhere too.

Ballyandy grinds out a tough win in the Betfair

Another horse who has run well from just off the pace is River Wylde. On bare form he doesn't have much to find with Ballyandy but his win last time out was at Kempton which is a completely different test to this, being a flat right-handed galloping course. This will be an entirely new test and he'll have to overcome that as well as the form gap.

Henderson's other runner is interesting - Beyond Conceit is an 8 year old Galelio gelding and is two from two after a comprehensive win at Newbury before scraping home over 2m4f at Ascot. That stamina will serve him well here. He has a fair bit to find against those ahead of him in the betting but is definitely a good place shout. As is High Bridge who has done everything asked of him in winning his three hurdle starts this season. He is likely to be up with the pace and just might stay there if setting the right fractions from the front.

Elgin has been second behind some top quality opponents in Neon Wolf and River Wylde so may be

The real Melon who is admittedly a nice looking horse

one at a good price to hit the frame.

Labaik is the new Mad Moose and he's great. He's refused to race twice in his last three runs and gave the field a massive head start last time out and hence comes here at a massive price. You may lose your money at the start line but if the atmosphere and buzz of Cheltenham can get him excited enough to start the race then who knows hat he'd achieve?.

2:10 - Arkle Novice Chase, 2m

Altior wins. And I hope he does so impressively. For those who take a sado-masochistic view of their bank accounts or want to bet without the favourite... Charbel will make into a good horse, but I think his price reflects who he has been running behind rather than the bare form. He hasn't run yet in 2017 and will go from the front in a bid to get the favourite beat. I think he may pay the price if trying to stop Altior getting passed him and may set up the places for something staying on from the back. Royal Caviar would probably have beaten Some Plan if not for falling last time out and is probably the best of the Irish chances here, however Forest Bihan has done well coming off the pace in winning three of his last four. He is a younger horse and therefore probably the more open to progression. He'd be my tentative selection for second place.

2:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase, 3m1f

Un Temps Pour Tout en route to victory over Holywell last year

This is a red hot renewal and looks like one of the best handicaps of the year. Last years 1-2 line up again in Un Temps Pour Tout and Holywell. The winner has only been seen once over fences when running below par in the Hennessey and as such comes in only 4lbs higher than last year. Holywell has run reassuringly terribly for a horse trained by Jonjo O'Neill. You will need no reminding he was 4th in Coneygree's Gold Cup so is a serious animal if we assume that his form this year is just one of those things that happens to Jonjo horses in big handicaps rather than a natural decline in ability. He also won this three years ago but does need good in the going description to be fully effective. I'd be willing to risk a few pound there. Jonjo O'Neill also runs Go Conquer who is interesting only really because he is trained by Jonjo. He has shown decent form in 3m handicaps and comes in on a nice weight. Otago Trail is a good horse probably slightly unfairly treated on his run behind Native River in the Welsh National.

The 2015 winner, The Druid's Nephew, also takes his place again for another shrewd trainer in Neil Muholland (who has an 18% strike rate in British handicaps) who also saddles last year's 3rd The Young Master. For me The Druids Nephew has never shown the same level of spark since slithering on landing in the 2015 Grand National, but the Young Master could easily run a big race off of 3lbs lower this year and will appreciate the drying ground. Again, his form this season has been too bad even to be a plot and his Sandown win at the end of last season may have taken a fair bit out of him. Others are preferred. The more interesting Mulholland runner may be Pilgrims Bay who clocked up some good form in beating Theatre Guide last time out.

In general, I would be looking for a novice towards the bottom of the weights in this and I really like Singlefarmpayment who is one of two runners for Tom George who also runs A Good Skin. His horses love the spring ground and will be fully wound up for this and the trainer is running at an impressive 21% strike rate this season. Singlefarmpayment would be a contender in the RSA later in the week were he to line up there based on the way he was travelling at Cheltenham last time before being brought down. He hasn't run at the festival before which is a slight negative but has won on his other two runs at the track. He seems better treated than Alan King's Label Des Obeaux whom he beat here in December but it would be fair to say the latter has improved since then and could be a threat.

A Good Skin was second in last year's Kim Muir so ticks the Cheltenham form box. As a third season chaser he is more exposed than some towards the bottom of the weights but nonetheless comes into it off of a good mark and at a big price. Paul Nicholls has never won this race but has a live chance with Martin Pipe winner Ibis Du Rheu who also has a nice profile for this but for my money isn't as well off at the weights as Singlefarmpayment. The big Irish challenge comes from Gordon Elliott who runs Noble Endeavour. This horse was massively impressive when winning beating The Crafty Butcher at Leopardstown in December. He was second in the Martin Pipe two years ago but comes into this off of a big weight. He could be a really classy horse but I'm prepared to leave him at the price.

3:30 - FEATURE RACE: Champion Hurdle, 2m

The Champion Hurdle.

Petit Mouchoir is probably a good place to start, as he will more than likely be the first one to show in this race. Front running tactics have been deployed pretty well in the past year and I imagine it will be Bryan Cooper's plan to control the pace from the front. This has certainly worked in both recent outings at Leopardstown and for my money he was shaping like the winner in the Fighting Fifth too before falling. He is a horse who has improved in spades this year and that is proper grade 1 form in a race largely devoid of it.

Footpad is the choice of Ruby Walsh to ride and was closing on Petit Mouchoir on the line in the

Petit Mouchoir battles Buveur D'Air

(now in JP McManus green and gold) at Aintree

Irish Champion Hurdle. A quick look at the sectionals shows that Petit Mouchoir went off hard that day and I'd take it more as a negative for the winner rather than a positive for Footpad. He was given a strange ride when dropped way out the back in last years Triumph before staying on into third and I just think that that sort of tactic will not suit this race on the stiff old course at all. That said, if the race is run at a furious pace then he may be there to pick up the pieces and hit the frame at a price if staying on up the hill.

For me though Petit Mouchoir would be favourite if it weren't for his rotten run at last years festival when 8th in the Supreme. On that form he has around 7 lengths to make up with Buveur D'Air. He did however hit the 2nd hurdle early and its possible he never fully regained momentum after that - at Aintree he had closed that gap to a neck. It is entirely possible that the switch of yards to Gordon Elliott has eked out a little more improvement and if he does take to the track he could be hard to pass and is a big player, especially if drifting to an each way price.

But what about the horse who beat him at Aintree? Buveur D'Air would have nothing on bare ratings against the principle contenders in this race having only been switched back to hurdles from a novice chasing career in mid season. His prep run told us nothing when coasting on the bridle past vastly inferior horses to win at Sandown.  He is undoubtedly talented and were it not for two very good horses in front of him would have been a good winner of last years Supreme, I just don't like the change of plan and at the prices could leave him.

Punchestown form is always a little bit 'after the Lord Mayor's parade' but Petit Mouchoir's form line also ties in with Nicky Henderson's other runner Brain Power who was 4 1/2 lengths behind Petit Mouchoir at that meeting. He has since progressed through handicaps, winning two big races at Ascot and Sandown but notably could only manage 8/16 in the Greatwood here in November. He hasn't raced since December with this always being the aim since then. It would be unusual for a handicapper to step up and win this, but it may not be a renewal with that much depth. I can see him hitting the frame but at his price others are preferred.

Yanworth - Can he go one better than last year?

Those others include Henderson's third runner My Tent or Yours, twice runner up in this in his earlier years. It's entirely possible his drop in form this year is just down to him not having his ground, but its also likely to be natural decline. One thing is certain, he is a bridle horse and will find nothing but you can expect him to happily stay on after the last - may be an each way play if you're sentimental.

But if you are sentimental then more than likely your each way money is with The New One. This horse is a bit of a hero and comes here for a 4th crack. To be fair, he has not been bad his year. A season clear of niggles and injury has meant he comes into this in better form than last year and he seems to be somewhat rejuvenated under front running tactics when winning the Grade 2 International and Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock - he is also officially third best on ratings. I imagine he'll still come up he hill well and maybe he'll place again?

The problem is that he will often go through the season picking up grade 2 races but at the top table has never quite been able to deliver. Yanworth in contrast sees to be worth his place here. Simply put, to my mind he and Petit Mouchoir are grade 1 horses in a grade 2 race. He is not flashy, his jumping can be tentative and he got beaten in the Neptune, albeit by an impressive Yorkhill. But, he wins races by grinding them out. Looking back on his champion bumper 4th and Neptune 2nd there is no problem with the way he stays up the hill and I think a true gallop will really suit him. His Christmas Hurdle win this year represents the only piece of form (in the UK at least) in which they were going a true gallop. Kempton would not have suited him and he took a long while to get going but after he did the pace he showed to go past The New One was probably the best turn of foot we have seen this year and I think to me he represents the best chance of getting past Petit Mouchoir. The unknown angle with him is a new jockey in Mark Walsh who although he is a top Irish jockey is still searching for his first festival winner. However, I think his patient style will suit the horse.

Moon Racer wins the 2015 Champion Bumper with Yanworth in 4th

And now for the wild card. Moon Racer is one of my favourite horses in training and I have backed him every run since his champion bumper win. He was primed to be my day 1 nap when still entered in the Supreme but after only two runs over hurdles he is taking on the more experienced horses here and I have no idea how good he'll be. Official ratings tell us very little and he hasn't yet run in 2017. I couldn't tell anyone to back him but I couldn't not back him myself.

On Champion Bumper form however, he is beating Yanworth back into 4th. Yanworth has developed since then, whether Moon Racer has is a mystery until around 3:35 today. He is an 8 year old so fully entitled to take his chance but as such an inexperienced horse I just hope he comes back safe and sound... and if he can manage that I hope he wins it!

In conclusion, there are holes everywhere and it could be anyones race. However, I think Yanworth and Petit Mouchoir are the two standout horses on respective sides of the Irish Sea. Much depends on which horses tactics play out best on the day; if Petit Mouchoir can run to the right sectionals from the front or if Yanworth's jumping keeps him in contention until the end. It is tight for me, but the Champion Hurde is a staying two miles and I think Yanworth's staying credentials will ultimately win out over Petit Mouchoir's speed - but one wrong move and it could be game over.

If you think they are both vulnerable I wouldn't put you off a big each way bet. Scottish Champion Hurdle Winner, Ch'Tibello was in receipt of 4lbs when second to Yanworth last time out but only went down a length, Sceau Royal will likely be ridden to pick up the pieces, Cyrus Darius will likely outrun his odds of 40/1 and the enigma that is Wicklow Brave, who beat Ascot gold cup winner Order of St George on the flat, could be anything if he turns up on the day.

4:10 - Mares Hurdle, 2m4f

Limini grinds out a 2 length victory over Apples Jade at Punchestown

What a good race this is and finally a proper contest for the race to live up to it's grade 1 billing but its hard to see past the first 3 in the market.

Willie Mullins will be dual-handed to retain his almost flawless record in this race. Vroum Vroum Mag returns to defend her title but has been deserted by Ruby Walsh in favour of the inaugural 2016 Mares Novice race winner Limini.

Vroum Vroum has a superb win rate but looked jaded last time out in Doncaster - she returned with a dirty scope, but one has to assume that the jockeys decision to ride Limini leans to the fact she may not be sparkling at home. I was at Sandown last April when she made it all the way to the parade ring before being withdrawn and it wouldn't surprise me if she was a late omission here again. But assuming she does turn up, has Ruby made the right choice?

On pure form Apple's Jade is only 1lb inferior to the leading two. She was beaten last time out by Limini at Punchestown but that was on heavy ground. It is no coincidence that her only run on good ground this term resulted in her beating Vroum Vroum Mag and you only have to look at last season to see she is highly likely to come into her own for the spring weather. At the prices she has to be the selection.

In the event that one of the big three flops on the day then there are a couple of big prices in Ron's Dream and Briery Queen who could hit the frame at 66/1 apiece. Lifeboat Mona has also shown decent enough form and a bit of improvement could see her in the mix for places if things fall right for her on the day.

4:50 - National Hunt Novice Chase, 4m

Jockey's play a massive part in this race which is restricted to amateurs. It can be one that throws up a very good horse and if you can find one that has run well in top class staying novice chases

whilst looking like they need further then that could be the key. The ones who tick these boxes are A Genie in Abottle (Jamie Codd), Edwulf (Derek O'Connor), Beware the Bear (Sam Whaley Cohen), Arpege D'Alene (Will Biddick) Bigbadjohn (Barry O'Neill).

The most frustrating horse in Nicholl's yard Arpege D'Alene

I liked the way Bigbadjohn closed on (Coneygrees brother) Fintham on the line last time out and he is certainly one of the more experienced in the field. I can see the step up in trip suiting him. The best of the English horses though may be Beware the Bear who looked really good winning at Newbury and is 3 from 3 this term. He hasn't been seen this calendar year but Nicky Henderson sounds pretty sweet on him which is an obvious plus.

Arpege D'Alene is infinitely frustrating for Paul Nicholls having shown grade 1 quality at home but never quite on the track. Maybe this step up in trip will be exactly what he needs, maybe not. Tiger Roll is of course a Cheltenham winner, albeit over 2m hurdles. He is overpriced at 20/1 based on form and I wouldn't put you off a place bet, though I know nothing about the jockey.

I was really hoping that Jamie Codd would have chosen to ride Champers on Ice who would've been my selection. The decision to ride A Genie in Abottle plays into that horses favour massively and he has shaped like he will stay every yard of the 4m. He is a naff price though especially when compared with Edwulf who runs for JP McManus. It would be fitting if he won this race which is named in honour of the late JT McNamara and would be another festival winner for star in the marking Joseph O'Brien.

5:30 - Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase, 2m4f

This is a race that usually throws up a good winner. The one's that catch the eye are Two Taffs with Cheltenham maestro Davy Russell aboard, Gold Present whose mark remains unchanged despite a good grade 2 win last time out, Neptune 3rd Its'afreebee, Burtons Well, Foxtail Hill, Mixboy and Double W's who comes here for the shrewdest of the shrewd Macolm Jefferson.

Take your pick of those but at the prices I'll opt for the progressive Mixboy and side with Nicky Henderson in Gold Present to continue the trainers good record here.

The Return of the Shrew - Cheltenham Festival 2017 Preview

With less than 3 days to go, it is time to whet the appetite for one of the worlds greatest sporting spectacles. 28 races over 4 days at the home of jump racing will see hopes dashed and immortals crowned and everything in between. It's the Cheltenham Festival.

The 11 year old Cue Card bids again for Gold Cup glory

In this preview, I provide a brief guide to my approach to the festival, looking at bookmaker offers to add some intrigue to the week; I analyse the short price favourites, the biggest head-to-heads, trainers to follow and provide some antepost Shrewdies.


I will be posting a blog for each day with a selection in each race up for 9am each morning.


But for now, without further ado...


Bookmaker Offers


With 28 races, betting in each race can become expensive.... most bookmakers use Cheltenham for new account acquisitions. If you can withstand the barrage of marketing spam that will inevitably follow these two sound like the best two offers if you want to bet on the festival on a budget:


Paddy Power - new account offer of 10/1 on Altior (1/4) and Douvan (2/7) (maximum of £10) to both win with the enhanced odds returned as free bets. Barring a total shock this should give you £100 in free bets to play with by 15:35 on Wednesday.


Bet Victor - new account offer, bet £10 and get a free £2 bet on every race at Cheltenham


So to me that's £156 worth of bets for just £20 and seems good value...


In general, I would always recommend playing the placepot on any given day selecting a horse in each of the first 6 races to hit the frame - considering most days have 3 or 4 graded races with well fancied horses then you stand a good chance of winning and it's usually a reasonable pot.



Shrew's Shorties

GOOOOOONYAGOODTINGS! - The 'invincibles' of this years festival - but who
is a genuine legend in waiting and who is just a bit too short?

Every year, as with every race meeting up and down the country, there are short price favourites who live up to their billing and those who completely flop. Here, I review the festivals shortest 'shorties' and which I would back or which I would lay. Although a winning bet here isn't likely to pay for the retirement fund, a short-priced favourite is often a good way to enhance your price on other bets by placing them in multiples with bigger priced horses, or, placing a handful in an accumulator by themselves. So let's have a look at which shorties are 'good things' and which may be too good to be true...


Following the injury to Thistlecrack earlier in the year there are now two headline names who will be called upon to light up the festival. Altior and Douvan, both unbeaten over obstacles, head their respective markets and with good cause. At time of writing, Altior is still entered in the Queen Mother which would lead to a mouth-watering clash between the two of them (which for the record I think Altior would win), however he is much more likely to go down the novice route and leave Douvan to win in the Queen Mother. They are largely as bulletproof as their respective prices suggest and both races should really just be watched and enjoyed rather than punted on. Altior's jumping so far has been incredibly safe, perhaps giving fences a little too much air. Douvan conversely is slick and low at his fences and almost hurdles them - this may be the only small vulnerability if he decides to get cocky but barring act of God they both win.


In recent history, the mares hurdle is more often than not dominated by one horse, with Quevega,

Limini and Apples Jade lock horns again in the mares hurdle

Annie Power (barring that fall) and Vroum Vroum Mag cleaning up in most of the renewals. This year it is a little more interesting as not only is Rich Ricci potentially double handed with last year's winner Vroum Vroum and mares novice winner Limini, but Triumph Hurdle second, Apples Jade also enters the picture at 5/2. It may be the case that Vroum Vroum Mag ends up in the Champion Hurdle but Rich Ricci has gone on record to say that it is not beyond possibility he will run his mares against one another. Either way I think Limini looked impressive last time when getting the better of Apple's Jade, however we saw last year how Apple's Jade comes into her own in the springtime and I think she'd be the value against both Mullins hotpots.


Neon Wolf looked like a real star of the future when winning his last race. He is likely to go for the Neptune unless the ground comes up soft in which case connections may be tempted to run him in the Supreme - either way, he is the best novice hurdler in training and I think he'll win. As I write - Finian's Oscar, perhaps his closest rival has been ruled out of the festival with a stone bruise - so he's maybe even more of a good thing than before!


Might Bite and Yorkhill are obvious talents with big question marks over their heads which I elaborate on below. Cantlow was a good second when conceding weight in the cross country on trials day but will place a completely different field and I'm not convinced he'll reverse form with the French horse, even off level weights. On the Fringe goes for an unprecedented treble treble in the Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown foxhunters - he could be vulnerable to one or two here but I find it hard to want to back against history. The Triumph is a tricky race to call but Defi Du Seuil has shown all of the best form this year and looks top class.


My lay of the meeting for me is Death Duty - not because I don't think he's good - but the Albert Bartlett is a really attritional test. Gordon Elliott has said that this horse is better than Don Cossack at this stage of his career which is high praise indeed - however this is a graveyard for short priced favourites. English contenders Wholestone and West Approach (Thistlecrack's half brother) seem more battle hardened and could spring a surprise.


In summary:

Horse	Race	Day	Time	Best Odds	Shrew's Verdict
Altior	Arkle	Tuesday	14:10	1/4	Invincible - Sit back and admire
Limini	Mares Hurdle	Tuesday	16:10	5/4	Lay
Vroum Vroum Mag	Mares Hurdle	Tuesday	16:10	6/4	Lay
Neon Wolf	Neptune (or Supreme)	Wednesday	13:30	9/4	Back wherever he goes
Might Bite	RSA	Wednesday	14:10	5/2	Back on the day
Douvan	Champion Chase	Wednesday	15:30	2/7	Invincible
Cantlow	Cross Country	Wednesday	16:10	2/1	Lay
Yorkhill	JLT	Thursday	13:30	11/8	Lay
Unowhatimeanharry	Stayers Hurdle	Thursday	15:30	5/4	Back - Hard to Beat
Defi Du Seuil	Triumph	Friday	13:30	2/1	Back
Death Duty	Albert Bartlett	Friday	14:50	2/1	Lay, back Wholestone instead
On The Fringe	Foxhunters	Friday	16:10	11/8	Back

Top 10 Head-to-Heads


Ireland vs England
The 'Prestbury Cup' adds an extra layer of competition to the week with the English strong favourites to have more winners this year... They will have to wrestle the cup back from the Irish who were eventually awarded the 2016 cup following a 14-14 tie when it was announced that Any Currency, English winner of the Cross Country, had tested positive for an illegal substance therefore being disqualified to the benefit of (Irish trained) Josie's Orders. If only we knew which ones were on drugs beforehand...

Will he get up the hill?

Might Bite vs Cheltenham


'Horses for courses' rings just as true for Cheltenham as anywhere else and course form is a key guide to picking winners. But for one error at Kempton, the RSA favourite Might Bite would have been a massively impressive winner over Christmas, which clearly represents the best form on offer in this race. The horse seems to have grown into himself and his scope now clearly suggests he has taken well to chasing. However, all of his best form is on flat tracks... He is a gelding out of Scorpion, who famously (setting aside a few notable exceptions) 'don't get up the hill'. His form at the course over hurdles reads 157, compared with easy wins around Kempton, Newbury and Doncaster. If, it is simply the case that the horse has taken a while to come into himself and is now an entirely different proposition then he surely bolts up. But, this course and this trip especially takes a lot of getting and he'd have to get every yard of the 3m2f to win here. 


Yorkhill vs the voices in his head

Yorkhill beating Champion Hurdle favourite Yanworth at last year's festival

You just need to watch a replay of the 2016 Neptune to know Yorkhill is brilliant - he galloped all over Yanworth that day and that forms most of the reason he is favourite for this years JLT. He has looked a little workmanlike over fences so far and going into the race in my opinion he has a bit to find with some of the other fancied runners in a hot renewal. However, his biggest danger could yet be Yorkhill! At a recent racecourse gallop, the horse decided he'd much prefer to school over hurdles darting straight for the hurdles course before being brought back on track to blunder his way through a few fences before finally getting into a rhythm and looking generally impressive for the rest of the way around. In all seriousness I don't think it was too much of a worry for his chances but it's worth looking out for any sign of those quirks rearing their head on Thursday.


If you do fancy him and also fancy Yanworth it's probably worth getting on now as the price will likely collapse if the latter wins the Champion Hurdle.


Augusta Kate vs Death Duty
Although I think the two English horses in West Approach and Wholestone have the better chance in the Albert Bartlett this is a subplot that fascinates me. Willie Mullins is of the opinion that Augusta Kate would have beaten Death Duty before coming down at the last hurdle last time out. I'm sceptical... but keep your eye on a rematch between the two on Friday.


Jamie Codd vs Derek O'Connor
Though most races are all about the horse, the amateur jockey's come to the fore in several key races; the Four Miler, the Kim Muir and the Foxhunters Chase will usually go to the best jockey on the day rather than simply the horse. Although there are other top jockeys to follow you can't go wrong with following Jamie Codd (who also rides dual festival winner Cause of Causes in the cross country) and Derek O'Connor. It will be interesting to see which amateur rider comes up trumps.


Willie Mullins vs Gigginstown
One of the biggest stories in the early season was Gigginstown studs decision to remove 60 top quality horses from Willie Mullins yard, with Gordon Elliott, Henry de Bromhead and Mouse Morris as some of the main beneficiaries. I'm sure deep down there is nothing Mullins would like more to get the better of Gigginstown horses throughout the week - At time of writing it is unclear whether Empire of Dirt will switch to the Gold Cup, but if he stays in the Ryanair there is sure to be a top class match up against Un De Sceaux. Limini just about got the better of Apples Jade last time out but there is a strong chance the form could be reversed on better ground and finally Mullins will hope that Djakadam will be able to repel both Outlander (and maybe Empire of Dirt) in the Gold Cup.


JP McManus vs JP McManus
JP McManus is set to have a very good festival, but the markets in several key races throw up some top clashes between his horses. The Champion Hurdle sees Yanworth and Buveur D'Air as first and second favourite with the state of the ground the key factor in who will go off market leader. Unowhatimeanharry is a clear favourite for the Stayers Hurdle but there are many who see his biggest threat as 2014 Champion Hurdle winner Jezki who steps up in trip. Defi Du Seuil is a hot 2/1 favourite in the Triumph to maintain his unbeaten run but the forgotten horse could be Charli Parcs who would be a massive price if he could regain his early season form here. With a boat load of other strong chances and head-to-heads across the week, he would be my choice of champion owner at the meeting.


Gordon Elliott vs Phil Smith
Much headline space has been dedicated to the spats between Phil Smith, the BHA head of handicapping and Irish runners with the perception being that Irish runners are badly treated in English handicaps (especially Gordon Elliotts). The feud came to a head when Smith allocated three Gigginstown horses the top three weights in the Grand National and resulted in a war of words that is still on going. In my view the timing of the dispute has meant that actually a few of Gordon Elliott's horses (The Storyteller being the obvious one in the Martin Pipe) might have gotten in a bit lighter than they would in previous years. If they lose, it proves Elliott right, if they win they win - so it seems like a fairly good position to go into the festival with.


Altior vs Douvan
They may not be taking one another one for at least another year but the two star attractions will be competing for headline space on Tuesday and Wednesday and should both put in spectacular performances.

Every inch a Gold Cup horse, but does he have the class to fend them off?

Native River vs Cue Card
Whatever happens Colin Tizzard has had a fantastic season and despite Thistlecrack missing out with a tendon injury he still has two very good chances in the Gold Cup. I think it is fair to say Cue Card is the most popular horse in training but at 11 years old he faces a stiff task of seeing out a trip that is probably further than his ideal. I adore the young pretender Native River, who if nothing else will definitely stay the trip. His Hennessey and Welsh National wins were backed up with a strong win at Newbury in February and he is absolutely built for this test - but will he have the class? They are far from the only horses with chances in this years race but it would be a superb subplot if they jump the third last together.


Trainers to Follow


Aside from the obvious in Henderson, Mullins and Elliott, Paul Nicholls has been deadly in handicaps in recent years and any runner (especially a French import) is worth a few quid on. In terms of profitability you can't go wrong with backing a Jonjo O'Neill horse (especially over the first day) - This would include Holywell who was second in last year's Ultima and has been running suspiciously badly again all year to come into it off a low mark .


Shrew's Shrewdies


I will preview each day as we go but for those desperate to place an early bet, here are a few initial fancies for some of the non-championship races based on horses I think look well placed:


Singlefarmpayment - Ultima Handicap - Tuesday 14:50 - 10/1
Strong Cheltenham form and was tanking when brought down last time out - off a great mark.


Beware the Bear - 4 Miler - Tuesday 16:50 - 9/1
Just a silly price considering form with other contenders.


Romain De Senam - Cose Brothers Handicap Chase - Tuesday 17:30 - 8/1
Second by a nose in last year's Fred Winter - sneaks in at the bottom of handicap


Divin Bere - Fred Winter - Wednesday 16:50 - 6/1
Potentially thrown in - was borderline between this and the Triumph hurdle


Someday - Champion Bumper - Wednesday 17:30 - 7/1
Might have a bit in hand in a pretty open bumper and seems a good price


Charli Parcs - Triumph Hurdle - Friday 13:30 - 10/1
This is a massive price and all because of a fall when coming back on the bridle last time out. If you can forgive a horse one bad run then he could be a huge bet.


The Storyteller - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys - Friday 16:50 - 4/1
The cat may be out of the bag on this one - but probably the best horse to benefit from the Anglo-Irish handicapping debate.


Le Prezien - Grand Annual - Friday 17:30 - 10/1
This race often goes to a good novice and he is shrewdly placed by Nicholls if he turns up here.

The Wandering Shrew - Prix De l'Arc De Triomphe Meeting Day 2 Preview

The world's richest turf race features on a stunning card at Chantilly with 6 group 1s to contest. The

Postponed bids for Arc glory

feature is the Arc in which Postponed bids to extend his unbeaten run to 7. He will have stiff competition from all angles notably super filly Found, Japanese raider Makihiki and dual derby winner Harzand. It is a great supporting card in which my personal feature is So Mi Dar's first trip out in Group 1 company in the Prix De l'Opera. Also, watch out for the Prix de l'Abbaye where Chantilly's 5f course finishes somewhere in the woods.

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:10 - Cavale Doree 6/1
1:45 - Kontrastat 15/8
2:20 - So Mi Dar 4/5 (So Mi Dar- Speedy Boarding forecast)
3:05 - Postponed 2/1

1-2-3 - Postponed - Found - Left Hand

4:35 -Profitable 7/1 e/w
5:15 - Limato 5/6

Shrew's Double: So Mi Dar & Limato to both win.

Race-by-race Guide

1:10 - Prix Marcel Boussac, 1m

A fairly average renewal of the Marcel Boussac where hopefully something can produce an eye-catching performance. Toulifaut has course form but also the car park draw in her bid to give Frankel a group 1 winner. Dabyah won easily at Newbury and is drawn next to her - both will likely aim to settle in midfield and I'd expect the latter to quicken the better of the two.

Promise to be True will need to bounce back from a disappointing run last time out but it isn't beyond her trainer to have horses bounce quickly back. Cavale Doree has a progressive profile and I expect more to come from her. Senga is an interesting one at a price for a trainer with a good record here.

1:45 - Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere (Garnd Criterium), 1m

Kontrastat looked really good last time out and that form makes him the one to beat. Salouen and King of Spades took a few more runs to get going and look quite exposed already. Whitecliffsofdover will likely step up on his last run and presents a challenge to the favourite and (although I'm always wary of O'Brien's second string) looks better than Utah on what we've seen so far. National Defense ran well in defeat here last time out but will have a job to do to overturn the favourite.

Thais is an odd supplementary entry and one to look out for if running better than expected here.

2:20 - Prix De l'Opera, 1m2f

The unbeaten So Mi Dar makes an overdue appearance in

group 1 company

So Mi Dar was the horse that this season really needed. Impressive in winning the Musidora Stakes she would've put up a real contest against Minding in the Oaks, but it wasn't to be with injury ruling her out until a return in September. Thankfully she looked herself and looked to have improved further upon return and I would be delighted to see her pick up this Group 1 prize before perhaps a trip to Ascot or the Breeders Cup to top the year off. Speedy Boarding seems next best.





3:05 - FEATURE RACE - Prix De l'Arc De Triomphe, 1m4f

1. New Bay

Ran a credible third in this race last year when beaten by Golden Horn. He has been hit by injuries this year and as a result hasn't looked quite up to the same level. His run into 4th latest in the Irish Champion Stakes showed promise that he is on the road to full fitness and has a favourable draw. Good place claims.

2. Postponed

Unfairly underrated by many having been winner of the last 4 Group 1's he's contested. The injury that made him miss the King George could be a blessing in disguise as he comes into this with less mileage on the clock than some of his rivals. His Juddmonte win over Highland Reel was promising but all of his best form is over 1m4f and a repeat of his Coronation Stakes 4 1/2 length win over found sets a real standard. This is the third time this season I have previewed a race featuring Postponed and my only objection has been his price. May be too short again but he is the one they all have to beat.

3. Migwar

Likely to be too much for him today.

4. Highland Reel

Reliable in Group 1 company to run his race and was very good when winning the King George. However, usually finds a few too good for him. His draw is not bad and has place claims.

5. One Foot In Heaven

Was underwhelming behind Silverwave in the trials here despite good win in June. Others preferred.

6. The Grey Gatsby

I still love this horse but now needs Lazarus levels of redemption to realistically feature.

7. Silverwave

Switched yards since last year's tenth and has also switched riding tactics to be up with the pace. It seems to have done the trick based on recent performances including a Prix Foy win. His draw means he's likely to get a good pace to follow behind Postponed, Harzand and New Bay who will all want to be in prominent positions. Whether he can go past them though is another matter and he may be vulnerable to late finishes from Found and Makihiki behind him also.

8. Order of St George

A wide draw at Chantilly isn't as bad as at Longchamp as the first bend comes fairly quickly and there's time to jostle for position after it but Frankie Dettori has a real job to do to get Order of St George into a good position. He will need to be in the lead well before the home straight where he can really put his staying credentials to use but whether he will have the raw speed to dominate against a field of horses of this quality who like to be in prominent positions is another matter. Wouldn't rule out another Dettori masterclass and I do absolutely love this horse - but wouldn't back it either.

9. Silijan's Saga

Feels like this horse has been around forever.. I think this is at least his 4th Arc - don't expect him to ever get closer than his 5th on first attempt.

10. Found

No one would begrudge Found victory in Europes richest race

Ultra consistent and ultra likeable filly who met all sorts of trouble in this race last year, which is the only time she's finished out of the frame. 2nd in 5 group 1's this year, she hasn't gotten her head in front in a Group 1 since beating Golden Horn at the Breeders Cup last year. Draw 12 isn't horrendous so long as Ryan Moore can keep her out of trouble, but she wouldn't want to be too far back - could be held by Postponed on Coronation Cup for though and maybe a place awaits again...

Can Harzand continue the success of Derby winners in this race?

11. Harzand

Really tricky to assess as part of me says this horse could be the winner. The weight allowance given to three year olds is generous in this race owing to a good record in recent years. I'm completely willing to forgive his Irish Champion Stakes run where he was struck into quite early on and was never really travelling after that. On ratings his Derby form puts him bang there but it is so difficult to make a case for either the English or Irish Derby form meaning anything. Certainly beating US Army Ranger does not amount to Arc winning form. I expect him to be prominent with Postponed and New Bay but needs to prove he's good enough.

12. Vedevani

Presumably a pacemaker for Harzand?

13. Talismanic

Under the radar but will need a big step up.

14. Makihiki

Makihiki will come late for the Japanese

We're told that this years Japanese crop of 3 year olds is way above average and this is the best of them. There was optimism that this could be the horse to lift the curse that appears to affect Japanese horses in this race until he was drawn 14/16. His Prix Neil form was given a boost by Doha Dream's win yesterday but like so many Japanese champions over the years he's likely to drop in to the rear or midfield by which point the ground he needs to make up may be too much. Think he has a chance but tactics will probably get the better of him.

15. Savoir Vivre

Lightly raced 3 year old will have a lot to do but seems versatile in running style. May be in contention for minor honours.

16. Left Hand

Taking the 'Treve route' to the Arc win winning the Vermielle in good fashion. The Juliet Rose held that form up well when winning yesterday. Again, waiting tactics aren't ideal but she wasn't far away from La Cressonniere here in June which is form to be taken seriously. Again, draw is not in her favour but could run a big race from deep.

Mecca's Angel bids to be champion sprinter

4:35 - Prix de l'Abbaye, 5f

Mecca's Angel is deservedly favourite following a second win of the Nunthorpe at York and has a favourites chance. However, he has not shown anywhere near the same level of form away from his home track so alternatives should be considered.

Goldream won this last year but hasn't looked as good in 2016. Take Cover is usually thereabouts in these races and hits the frame fairly regularly though Group 1 may be beyond him. Just Glamorous is on the up and was really impressive over course and distance in September and has to be considered over Marsha who he beat that day. I always like to see two year olds take on older horses but this may be too much too soon for Ardad.

Profitable is an undoubtedly better horse over 5f than 6 and had excuses at York when taking  a bump early in the race. He has twice beaten Mecca's Angel this term (albeit Mecca's didn't turn up at Ascot) and on that basis given a clear run has to be taken at the odds.

5:15 - Prix da la Foret, 7f

Limato can gain redemption for last year's defeat in this and is one of only a few with proven form over 7f. Suedois looks a good price to repeat his feat from the July Cup and follow him home if winning a battle for 2nd against Spectre.

The Wandering Shrew - Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe Weekend Day 1 Preview

The Arc meeting moves to Chantilly for 2016 with its short straight, tight turns and odd 5f course that finishes somewhere in the woods. Day 1 features the Prix Du Cadran for champion stayers supported by a card of 4 other group races all leading up to tomorrows action featuring 6 group 1's including the Arc itself. There will be an early clue as to how good topcontender Makahiki is as he prepares to give the Japanese a long awaited first Arc win when

Shrew's Shrewdies

Newmarket

4:00 - Volta 7/2

Chantilly

1:00 - Moonshiner 10/3

1:35 - Sotteville 6/1 (nb)

2:50 - Zarak 5/4 or Heshem 9/1 e/w

3:25 - Nearly Caught 6/1 or Vazirabad 11/10

4:12 - Taareef 9/2

Race-by-race Guide

1:00 Prix Chaudenay 1m7f

Doha Dream's latest third here behind Makahiki and Midterm reads as really good form having only been pipped on the line by Arc quality horses. However, for me he was showing no extra at the line and therefore there is a question over whether this step up in distance will fully suit - that said Andre Fabre probably knows what he's doing.... Either way he is too short for me

Marmelo and Peribsen have a short neck between them on previous form but seemingly have a lot to find on official ratings with the favourite and also Moonshiner who is the only one with proven distance form - he is on the up and may not need to improve much further to win this.

You'd assume Minamya and Gontchar are here for minor honours but there is so little known about the variations in form lines between this sextet that they could outrun their odds.

1:35 Prix de Royalieu, 1m4f

Probably one of the tighter races of the day. The Juliet Rose has good course form based on a third here last time out, however was only marginally ahead of Sotteville the previous time with not much between them. The latter having a longer rest before this and further improvement entirely possible.

Mango Tango ran well at this level last time out but was behind Impressionist the previous time at Saint-Cloud who in turn was quite a way behind The Juliet Rose at Deauville. The question for me then is whether Almela can win conceding weight to younger rivals. Too tight to call so I'll stick with Sotteville at an each way price.

2:50 Prix Dollar, 1m2f

Free Port Lux won this last year but is inconsistent at the best of times and doesn't at all have the same form coming into this as last year.

I think Zarak is a solid favourite based on his runs behind Almanzor and you'd expect that to be enough. Yorker is an interesting runner and lost nothing in defeat to Scottish and Quebee over distances shorter than ideal. I'd like the look of Heshem each way based on early season form. Didn't run to his best last time out in what was a classier field than this. Two wins at Chantilly make him in with a shout.

3:25 Prix Du Cadran, 2m4f

Vaziribad is one of the best stayers in the world and barring one below par run when dropped in trip at Saint-Cloud two starts out his form figures read 111-11111 back to July 2015. That includes a win here at Chantilly last time out. On that he should be hard to beat. He is drawn wide however and although that should be less of a problem over this distance than in middle distance races it will still require a good deal of strong jockeyship to get him up. His tendency to settle in rear means that if he is too far back coming into the home straight he might have too much to do against some of the more prominent horses of which there are plenty...

Vazirabad's prep run culminated in a win only by a short neck and though he probably wasn't fully wound up, some attention has to go to the second horse on that day, Nahual, who likes to lead - but again may struggle to do so from stall 12. That task should be easier for Quest for More and Nearly Caught who break out of stalls 8 and 6 respectively and both like to race prominently. Of the two Quest for More feels a little more exposed whereas Nearly Caught is still progressing. I don't think either of them have too much to find on Vazirabad and given the right fractions set in front I would expect them to give him a lot to do if they are far enough ahead turning for home.

Burmese is a really interesting runner. His 5th in the Ascot Gold Cup was promising but I'm not sure how much to rate that form. Course form is always worth mentioning though and Fly With Me is 2/2 here - is preferred as a big priced each way selection over Trip to Rhodos.

4:12 Prix Daniel Wilderstein, 1m

Moonlight Magic has been running in better class races than this in the UK and Ireland but the drop in trip seems an odd choice for the Cape Cross colt.

Taareef was second to Dicton here in April and both seem to have improving profiles for the end of the season. I don't think there will be as much between them as prices suggest.

This is a step up for Zayva who has claims on a good win here last time out. But may be too big an ask? 

The Whistling Shrew St Leger and Irish Champions Weekend Preview

There are no fewer than 8 group races on what promises to be one of the best days of the flat season with top class action both sides of the Irish Sea. At Doncaster the final classic of the season sees hot favourite Idaho take aim to give O'Brien another St Leger, before the evening card at Leopardstown concludes with a red hot Champion Stakes where dual classic winners Minding and Harzand go head-to-head against a field of proven Group 1 talent in what should be the race of the year.

Shrew's Shrewdies

Doncaster

2:00: Champagne Stakes - Thunder Snow 5/2

3:10: Weber Park Stakes - Breton Rock 7/1

3:45: Muntahaa 11/2 or Idaho 8/13

Leopardstown

4:00: Champion Juvenile Stakes - Radio Silence 9/2

5:05: Enterprise Stakes - Stellar Mass 15/2

5:35: Matron Stakes - Persuasive 7/2

6:10: Boomerang Stakes - Awtaad 7/4

6:45: Irish Champion Stakes -  Harzand 11/4 or Hawkbill 14/1 e/w

Irish Champion 1-2-3-4: Harzand - Highland Reel - Hawkbill - New Bay

Runner-by-runner Guide

Doncaster

3:45 - St Leger, 1m6f (3yo)

Idaho has obvious claims here and it is no surprise to see him as an odds-on favourite. On what we know so far it looks as though he will stay the trip and as long as that is assured he should win. That is assuming that his exertions already this season haven't taken their toll already. From a pure numbers perspective it may be worth taking him on - the stamina is assured with Muntathaa and he is the most likely threat if it all does go wrong for the favourite. An each way chances both Housesofparliament and Sword Fighter could hit the frame - perhaps even in another O'Brien 1-2-3

Leopardstown

6:45 - Irish Champion Stakes

The English and Irish Derby winner, An Oaks and 2000 Guineas winner, 2 French Derby winners, Breeders Cup turf winner, King George winner, Prince of Wales winner, an Eclipse winnerand a previous Irish Champion Stakes winner means this is surely the best race in the world this year. It would be easy to say this is just one to savour but there are a few angles in the race that may  give clues as to how it will pan out:

Consistent and classy Highland Reel leads the way for the older hores

1. Highland Reel

1 of 4 O'Brien horses entered here and probably has a better chance than the market suggests. His run behind Postponed in the Juddmonte is really good form and he can be relied upon as not having too many off days. Place chances.





2. My Dream Boat

My Dream Boat pulls off a surprise win at Ascot to beat Found

Was a shock winner of the Prince of Wales stakes when chinning Found on the line - that seemed to be a freak result and he wasn't able to repeat it when quite a way back behind. Has been off since then but would need an unlikely repeat of that form if not better to follow up. Others preferred.

Can New Bay bounce back to his best en route to the Arc?

3. New Bay

Yet to show the same level of form as last year and took a three month break after looking poor on seasons return. His win last time out was fairly easy and has hopefully brought him along a little to be ready for this. Last years Arc 3rd puts him ahead of Found by quite some way. I imagine the Arc is the ultimate aim again, so its hard to tell whether he'll be at absolute peak for this, but if continuing progress should be thereabouts in the final stages. However, he is a prominent runner and has a high draw to overcome so there is that to consider also.

4. Sir Isaac Newton

A surprise supplementary addition to this race and it can only be assumed he is here to make pace for Highland Reel, Found and Minding, having run well in Group 1 company this season without ever looking like a winner at any point - others preferred.

5. Success Days

A consistent sort but really up against it in this company. Have to look elsewhere.

6. The Grey Gatsby

Non-runner.

7. Found

Ultra-consistent and seemingly has a superb engine as she bids to go through the whole season again as she did last year. Was second to Golden Horn last year which on the surface seems good form but probably was flattered by the winner jolting in the final furling. Has been 2nd in her last 4 starts but on form may struggle to hit the frame again today.

8. Almanzor

Impressive in France but will the form stack up?

Winner of the French derby. The form is really hard to assess given the trouble a lot of French trainers have had with illness this year. I suspect the form isn't as strong as the English or Irish equivalents which makes him a bit of a wildcard but one that we can probably ignore, especially given the low price.

9. Ebediyin

Pacemaker for stablemate Harzand

Two derbies and more to come for Harzand?

10. Harzand

Dual derby winner has to have a big chance. Has had a brilliant season and has been well rested since June. He will most likely be being readied for a tilt at the Arc and therefore the worry is whether he is fully wound up for this. I'm also not massively keen on his draw. We'll know how good the form of his last run was after seeing Idaho (who he beat by 1/2 a length) run in the St Leger and US Army Ranger in the Enterprise Stakes. First test against older horses so still has something to prove but could well do it.

11. Hawkbill

Hawkbill needs to bounce back from a poor Juddmonte run

Seems massively overpriced based on his poor showing in the Juddmonte and I'd be inclined to give him another chance especially as conditions will be back in his favour today. The Eclipse proved his potential against older horses and he has a nice draw. Would probably need a repeat of the Eclipse run but something close to that would have to see him in the frame.

12. Moonlight Magic

Should be outclassed by these.

Will exceptional filly Minding still have a career best in the tank?

13. Minding

The best filly of her generation and barring a defeat in a quagmire for the Irish Guineas has been flawless this season - but the question remains: what has she beaten? The form though looking good is yet to be tested against colts or older horses so remains an unknown. It is also questionable whether she'll be fresh for this having had a long season already but if having anything like the same constituency as Found she should be fine and a 10lb weight allowance over older colts has to be a plus.  In a straight head-to-head I'd marginally favour Harzand on form.

The Whistling Shrew - Ebor Festival Day 4 Preview

York - Day 4 Ebor Festival Preview


Shrews Shrewdies


1:45 - Ode to Evening 10/1 e.w. and Scarlet Dragon 7/1
2:15 -  Educate 10/1 e.w
2:50 - Master Blueyes 9/1 e.w.
3:25 - Dream of Dreams 9/1 e.w. or Intelligence Cross 9/1 e.w
4:00  She is no Lady 8/1, Heartbreak City 8/1 or Kinema 10/1.
4:35 - Sutter County 5/2


Shrew's WILDCARDs: 2:15 Yorker 14/1 and 4:00 Shrewd 11/1


Race-By-Race Guide


1:45
It looks like there will be at least 16 going to post for this so 4 places up for grabs each way. Of the market principles Dark Red looked to be on a good run before reaching a plateau when last seen at Epsom in June when beaten by Imshivalla another of whom's form has dropped off since. Snoano seems to be a consistent sort although form over 10f is relatively poor against his 12f form. Erik the Red will probably not enjoy this ground much. Chancery has been out of sorts for a long while but a market move from 16/1 into 7/1 is tough to ignore but I will anyway.


Scarlet Dragon is a fast improving horse and is up 6lbs after a close 4th last time out. Ode to Evening was second that day and is now 3lbs higher however a draw in stall one and a strong galloping track may put his staying credentials to good use. He is one of three Mark Johnston horses and I prefer him to Sennockian Star who has poor form at York.
I could see Batallion also running well here at the top of the weights.


2:15
This is a really nice Group 3 with several proven performers including 2014 winner Custom Cut. He is a consistent performer but gets his head in front far less these days and was beaten earlier in the year by another seasoned campaigned in Tulius who is now off a 9lb higher weight vs Custom Cut than that day. Both will likely have a better chance than the legend that is Gabrial on his 55th career start. The ground will likely be against Air Pilot today. Educate posted a career best last time out over this course, but that was in a big field handicap and todays test will be different. He looks a decent each way price though.


Scottish is a horse with a lot of enthusiasm behind him but was a beaten favourite at Haydock last time out and his Newbury form in beating Trip to Paris didn't stack up yesterday. Diploma is also on the up but form under 1m2f is underwhelming thus far - remains unproven although price suggests there's confidence behind her. I think this is a big ask against the colts.


Yorker is a big unknown having come over from South Africa and being over 400 days without a run. Haggas' record in bringing back horses from long breaks has to be respected and if he is on form then he is officially top rated in the race. and therefore he may be the wildcard in the bunch!


2:50
Effectively the Ebor for three year olds this could be a bit of a lottery (as the betting suggests). There was hardly anything between Shraaoh, Emperor Napoleon, Jameeh and Master Blueyes at Goodwood. Of them Shraaoh and Master Blueyes seemed to be staying on the best towards the end and would have to be fancied over a longer trip.


Kellstorm is a brother to Order of St George and that is good enough to make him fancied. He seems to be fairly level on form with Regal Monarch who has improved with each run up until now but is penalised for a win on Sunday. I could see Forth Bridge developing into a strong stayer over time and he may be well placed in first start in handicap company.


3:25
On paper this should be an easy win for Blue Point and so it may prove. He has about 4lbs on the rest of the field. Mokarris and Mubtasim pose the obvious threats but all form has been on good to firm ground and may therefore be unreliable which makes me prefer more heavily campaigned horses.


The Last Lion I would have like but his form (and the form of Global Applause) ties in with Yalta who was last in the Nunthorpe yesterday so is hard to fancy.Dream of Dreams seems to be a little more battle hardened than some of these which I think counts for a lot and I'd be willing to have him against the field. Intelligence Cross has some decent form behind Mehmas and may also come here with a little more experience under the belt.


Ardad will come into the picture if the going turns to soft.


4:00, Ebor Handicap, 1m6f
In recent years the standard of horses has greatly increased in this race to now have one of the strongest handicap fields on offer, which in turn gives horses at the top of the weights a better chance than before. It is hard to find too many holes in favourite and Northumberland Plate winner Antiquarium who also ran a good 5th here during last years festival. Kinema is another with good form coming into this and could go well dropped back to handicap company.


Top Tug is well handicapped and has some nice course form but didn't look to be staying over 1m4f here last time. There's a lot to like about Heartbreak City though and Tony Martin could have him absolutely primed for this.


Shrewd is always going to be a favourite of the Shrew with a name like that and he has some decent form behind him on previous runs at York, finishing just behind Friday winner Quest for More last time out. May be a bit high in the weights but is worth a shout. She is no Lady looks progressive and could be off of a really nice weight here if continuing her upward curve.

The Whistling Shrew - York Ebor Festival Preview - Days 1 and 2

The Ebor Festival showcases many of the best races on the calendar with The International taking centre stage on Day 1, taking in the Yorkshire Oaks and Nunthorpe on the way to Saturday's big closer, the Ebor Handicap itself.


On Wednesday, the highest rated horse in training Postponed puts his credentials to the test in a classy group 1 field including multiple group 1 winners in The Grey Gatsby, Hawkbill and Highland Reel. Just before that dual Derby-placed Idaho is hot favourite to confirm supremacy over a small field in The Great Voltigeur. Stakes.


Thursday sees the fillies take centres stage with the Yorkshire Oaks as a centrepiece where the super consistent classy Found will put her credentials to the test again. We may see another star filly in the making as Fair Eva lines up in the Lowther Stakes for 2 year olds early on the card. She is 1/2 to get the job done.

Shrew’s Shrewdies

Wednesday

2:30 - Best of Days 5/4

3:05 - Idaho 8/11, Idaho-Imperial Aviator Forecast

3:40 – Hawkbill 9/2

Thursday

2:30 - Fair Eva 1/2  or Nation's Alexander 16/1 e.w.
3:40 - Seventh Heaven 7/2

 Wednesday 17^th August

2:30 – Acomb Stakes, Group 3, 7f

Godolphin purchase Best of Days is hard not to like after an easy 6 length win in his maiden. The form of that already takes him in line with the best of these with more experience. Bear Valley is one with a few runs under his belt and looked good when winning at Goodwood, but you'd expect this track less suited to his running style.


Courage Under Fire was easily beaten by Caravaggio last time out and the price is probably more reflective of his opposition that day than anything he's actually achieved - it depends when Aiden O'Brien is really planning to bring him to the boil but he is still an improving horse. William Haggas who always needs respect here, runs Lockheed who is the most likely to follow the favourite home.


None of the outsiders make much appeal.

3:05 – Great Voltigeur Stakes, Group 2, 1m4f

On paper you'd expect Idaho to win this. His form in being placed in both the English and Irish Derbies makes him the obvious choice...which does make you wonder why Aiden O'Brien runs both Housesofparliament and The Major General (both rubbish horse names) as well? Of the two I prefer the form of The Major General though it is interesting to note the poor record of Galelio colts in this race...


Speaking of breeding... If it weren't for the group 2 penalty, Across The Stars would look like a really nice sort for this and could still definitely give the favourite a run for his money - I think he probably has the best breeding to suggest he'd enjoy the course and distance. Harrison doesn't look up to it but The Imperial Aviator presents an appealing question mark if he can rediscover some of the form he had before flopping in the French derby.

3:40 – Juddmonte International Stakes, Group 1, 1m2f

Postponed will be hard to beat if recovered from injury

Postponed is one of the best horses in the world right now in a race that in recent years has been officially the highest rated in the world with past winners including Frankel , Sea The Stars, Declaration of War and Australia all winning in previous years before Golden Horn’s shock upset by Arabian Queen last year. He has beaten everything put before him since emerging from seemingly nowhere to win last season’s King George including a Coronation Stakes, Prix Du Foy and a Dubai Sheema Classic. Stating the obvious – he has a great chance.

However, he did miss this year’s King George through injury and it remains to be seen if that break has freshened him up or if he is still on the comeback trail – which makes the odds a little shorter than desirable. In his Sheema Classic victory he outclassed this year’s King George winner Highland Reel, who won what in my view was a weak renewal of the race where everything went his way with Wings of Desire a length down in second and Sir Isaac Newton (a likely pacemaker today) further back still.

The problem with both Postponed and Highland Reel is that their best form is over 1m4f and

From strength to strength - Hawkbill bids for further group 1 glory

although both trainers insist their horses will be comfortable over this trip, a true 10f horse at the top level could beat them. Exosphere and Dariyan are yet to really tick that box, so I prefer both of the three year olds – Wings of Desire, although held by Highland Reel at Ascot, has solid course form with a great run here in the Dante at the start of the season. He was disappointing in the Derby but I wouldn’t be surprised if he improved again for the drop back in trip. The one who seems constantly under the radar though is Hawkbill who showed class and grit to beat The Gurka in the Eclipse with Time Test back in third – A repeat of that performance for me would be good enough to beat the older horses here.



The Grey Gatsby edging out Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes

A mention as always goes to one of my favourites The Grey Gatsby who hasn’t been at his best since pushing Golden Horn to the line in last year’s Eclipse. That said, the exaggerated waiting tactics of Jamie Spencer haven’t always worked well for him and a jockey change could be a plus as is the drying ground – a few pounds each way wouldn’t hurt.

Thursday 18^th August

2:30 – Lowther Stakes, Group 2, 6f

Fair Eva - hot favourite to continue the hot streak of Frankel's progeny

Fair Eva has looked brilliant so far and can't be opposed to bring further success to the start of her superstar dads sire career. Queen Kindly has been another one of the stars of Frankel's first crop and is deservedly priced as second favourite in the market. Nation's Alexander and Roly Poly only had half a length between them last time out and with the penalty that the latter incurs from that win I'd expect Nation's Alexander to be ahead today and may well be the bet for a place.

3:40 – Yorkshire Oaks, Group 1, 1m4f

Found - on her way to another Breeders Cup?

Ratings would suggest that Found is a better horse over 1m2f than 1m4f however a second to

Postponed in the Coronation Cup and a Breeders Cup Classic win over Golden Horn make me think that she can't be too bad over this trip. She is the one to beat for sure. However, beat she often is. Despite her obvious class she is only 5/16 and after a short break this race is likely to be seen as bringing her back for a tilt at one of the big end of season prizes. She is the best horse in the race but I have my doubts over whether Aiden would have rushed her back to peak for this. So the question is.... who is going to beat her?

Can Seventh Heaven be cream of O'Brien's Crop?

The answer is, possibly another O'Brien horse in the form of Irish Oaks winner Seventh Heaven who looked impressive on that day scoring a two and a half length victory over Architecture and more notably Ribblesdale winner Even Song who was quite a way back in 7th. That would imply Seventh Heaven has a very good chance here assuming Evensong doesn't bounce back.


It seems with fillies that often being prepared specifically for the day is more important than past form. That would have to be a negative for Turret Rocks and Harlequeen - the latter of whom seems to be held up in a way that indicates she'd probably appreciate a step back in distance but has good place claims again. The same applies to Queens Trust who gave Minding a fair run for her money last time out and was also placed behind Evensong at Ascot .


A completely different form line shows there is not much between Endless Time, Furia Cruzada and Loving Things based on Lancashire Oaks form. That was a group 2 and I expect this form to be higher. It is worth noting that Endless Time is lightly raced this term and has maybe been saved for this but will she have enough to defy the penalty?


On balance I'd say Seventh Heaven has the best chance but wouldn't be surprised if she completely flops in which case perhaps Queens Trust might have her day in the sun.