The Whistling Shrew Cheltenham Festival Preview 2019 - Day 4

Gold Cup Day and Native River bids for back-to-back success against the up and coming RSA winner Presenting Percy and King George winner Clan Des Obeaux. Should be a cracker.

It should be noted that where I can occasionally pick out a Triumph, Albert Bartlett, Gold Cup or Foxhunters winner my record on the Friday handicaps is about as bad as Apple's Jade in a Champion Hurdle...

Good luck and

Stay Shrewd

SHREW'S GOLD CUP DAY SHREWDIES

13:30 - The Triumph Hurdle, 2m (Grade 1) 

SIR EREC (NAP) is the most likely winner for Joseph O'Brien. His flat form is hard to beat having been only a few lengths down to super stayer Stadivarius in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. He jumps very well and will be hard to beat.

The same yard run Gardens of Babylon who was a decent second to Sir Erec last time up and a little way ahead of Tiger Tap Tap who isn't easily overlooked.

Gardens of Babylon has reversed places with Surin on three occasions this season and given that there's only a length between them each time I'd rather take the 33/1 each way on Surin than Babylon.

I love a Paul Nicholl's French import and Pic D'Orhy is the enigma in the race. I prefer the 'unknown' aspect of how good he might be over Quel Destin's admittedly good form.

1. Sir Erec  evs

2. Pic D'Orhy 10/1
3. Surin 33/1

14:10 - The County Handicap Hurdle, 2m1f

1. Monsieur Lecoq 9/1
2. Whiskey Sour 5/1
3. Western Ryder 14/1

14:50 -  Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, 3m (Grade 1)

Wide wide open race. Birchdale has pretty form but pretty horses don't win this race typically. It's a gruelling test for the novices and I'd be looking for one with grit and real staying power. Look for the ugliest looking bruiser in the paddock and you can't go far wrong (horse not the groom).

LISNAGAR OSCAR ticks that box as well as having good Cheltenham form and a wide margin victory over this distance at Haydock. Rebecca Curtis has a proven track record with producing big stayers and I think he looks most likely for this to suit. He was only just ahead of Dickie Diver at Chepstow on the latters maiden run over hurdles - but I'm more inclined to stick with the more experienced horse in a race like this.

Derrinross brings a similar level of form and characteristic from Ireland and will surely like this sort of test. Commander of Fleet is the shortest price Irish contender and is tied in with Rhinestone, neither of which have yet proven staying potential or come up against a test like this one.

Dinons has had a lot of runs which isn't a bad thing for this sort of race and had a lot of 1's next to his name, including one at Cheltenham, before flopping last time out.


1. Lisnagar Oscar 7/1
2. Derrinross 12/1
3. Dinons 12/1

15:30 - The Gold Cup, 3m2.5f (Grade 1)

This race either goes to a top class horse (think Kauto Star, Don Cossack, Imperial Commander, Sizing John, Long Run...) or a real gritty stayer (Think Synchronized, Lord Windermere...)Some years (Denman, Best Mate, Coneygree...) it requires a bit of both...

On this season's form, there is no doubt that Clan Des Obeaux is the class horse and I can easily see a scenario in which he wins. He's looked on the upgrade all year and his turn of foot to put them to the sword in the King George, notably with Thistlecrack just 1 1/2 lengths behind, took a lot of people by surprise. I think that's the best piece of staying form this year so far. There are some who are questioning the Cheltenham credentials of Clan Des Obeaux (and Thistlecrack) and I'm not sure I fully buy into this. Although he has never won here (Thistlecrack has over hurdles) he has posted an all time best rating at that stage of his career each time he has come here. Paul Nicholls knows how to train a Gold Cup winner, but he also trained Silviniaco Conti who could win a King George but never managed it on the biggest stage. The more I look at the King George the more I think the race really went his way with Bristol De Mai falling early. I think off a more consistently high tempo over this distance in this ground he might just get found out (same goes for Thistlecrack).

The eye-catching bit of that race for me was the horse finishing like a rocket to claim 3rd on a track that in no way suited him...I tipped my favourite horse in training NATIVE RIVER in 2017 when he was a good third, but abandoned him last year when he was a game winner. Despite my better judgement and his price being a bit too short (should be around 9/2), I'm going to tip him again! The ground has come up in his favour, with a bit of cut and as long as Richard Johnson gets the fractions right he has to be at least in the places. Might Bite has not been the same horse this year after trying to go with Native River last time and briefly heading him and I fear he'd do the same to Clan Des Obeaux.

In the same stable, Elegant Escape is taking the same route Native River did to his first Gold Cup attempt taking in the Hennessey (2nd) and Welsh National (1st). He is a real stayer and could easily place at a decent price if the race falls apart a bit.

The big question mark from the English form is Bristol De Mai. We know he transforms into an absolute monster at Haydock, where he had all three of the aforementioned horses in behind him this year, but his Cheltenham form is perhaps not as bad as it seems. He finished 7th in this as just a 6 year old and would've placed higher were it not for a mistake at the last. I think he looks a good price for a place but again, probably can't live with Native River around here.

The real threat to Native River's crown could come from the other side of the water and a horse whose trainer is so enigmatic he's developed cult status in Ireland. Presenting Percy was a brilliant winner of last years RSA having mocked the handicapper in the previous year's Pertemps final. Pat Kelly's strike rate at Cheltenham is staggering and it is for that reason that this horse is so short in the betting. The RSA is a great Gold Cup trial but the horse needs to show the best part of a stone's improvement to be on par with the best of these. Will he? We have no idea because he's only been seen once this year and that was over hurdles. Can I buy into the hype and mythical status of Pat Kelly as a trainer so enigmatic that jockey Davey Russell says he "doesn't even know where he lives"? Absolutely. Can I see Presenting Percy as being good enough to find the improvement to win this handsomely? Yes. Can I take a chance on that at 7/2? No, because I'm not mad. Could bolt up but is not for me.

Seems mad to have got this far without mentioning Willie Mullins who is still bidding for his first Gold Cup (Incidentally he is also yet to win a Champion Chase...) What he lacks in quality he's making up for in quantity by running quarter of the field.

Kemboy has become a bit of a winning machine since finishing 4th to Shattered Love in last year's JLT including twice over 3m. The second was a bit of a farce in the early stages and turned into a 1m sprint, though notably he beat Monalee by the same distance Presenting Percy beat Monalee in the RSA.... I don't think he'll stay. Shattered Love's form incidentally has taken a dip since winning that race. Could well run at a price for the longer distance but others preferred.

Al Boum Photo was one of the horses to beat Shattered Love this year and was an unlucky faller in the RSA behind Presenting Percy. He's bounced back with a couple of wins but nothing to get too excited about. Same could be said about Invitation Only who will stay well but not much else.

I prefer Bellshill of Willie's horses, who again has Cheltenham question marks but I think stays a lot better than these. He would've been an Irish National winner but for a weird incident at the last that caused him to drop suddenly to 5th. He has a lot of decent form over 3m+ trips and will give a good account of himself under Ruby Walsh.



1. Native River 3/1
2. Bellshill 12/1
3. Clan Des Obeaux 7/2
4. Elegant Escape 20/1
5. Bristol De Mai 33/1


16:10 - Fox Hunters Chase, 3m2f

1. Ucello Conti 5/1
2. Shantou Flyer 8/1
3. Haymount 25/1

16:50 - The Grand Annual Handicap Chase, 2m

1. Gino Trail 20/1
2. Caid Du Lin 9/1
3. Whatswrongwithyou 7/1

17:30 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle, 2m4f

1. Cartwright 10/1
2. Dallas Des Pictons 7/2
3.Pym 12/1

The Whistling Shrew Cheltenham Festival Preview 2019 Day 3

Day 3

Before we get down to it, how about:

*For the sentimentalists only - The FAUGHEEN (Stayers) and UN DE SCEAUX (Ryanair) 11 year old legends double*

Stay Shrewd!


13:30 - JLT Novice Chase, 2m5f (Grade 1)

A pretty tight race in which 2017 Triumph winner Defi Du Seuil represents the most obvious chance for the English. He has been good over fences this season and backed up his good form when beating Lost In Translation at Sandown to reverse the placings from their previous meeting here in January.

Kildistart comes up from handicap company with some good form. He has a shot but I always prefer grade 1 proven form.

Vinndication could well improve for going left handed as he's seemed to jump out that way on all his other starts going clockwise. 

I'm surprised that Ruby Walsh has opted for Voix Du Reve (who is potentially overpriced) over REAL STEEL who has won two beginners chases easily by 10 lengths apiece. I suspect he found the Albert Bartlett a little too far last year and has looked very good chasing over the shorter distance.

Mengli Kahn could run well returned to Cheltenham and might be a good price for a place.

1. Real Steel 7/1
2, Defi Du Seuil 5/2
3. Vinndication 9/1

14:10 - Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle, 3m

1. NotWhatIAm 10/1

2. Cuneo 16/1

3. Sire Du Berlais 11/2

14:50 - Ryanair Chase, 2m5f (Grade 1)

I think this is a great race.

Favourite Frodon has been really good this year, improving on what was already reasonable form last year. This will be a real test to see if he's developed into a true Grade 1 performer. He was down the field here last year but has improved about 5-10lbs. I have a doubt about his late season form that stops me siding with him. I'm prepared to be wrong but will leave him at the price.

There are others with proven Grade 1 ability, one of whom is Monalee. I think this is his ideal trip and his staying power should suit the conditions. He was a good winner over 2m4f when beating Anibale Fly last time out and has good Cheltenham form based on his second to Presenting Percy.

Also stepping back in distance is ROAD TO RESPECT who hasn't run over a trip shorter than 3m since winning the 2m4f handicap here two years ago before following up with a victory over Yorkhill. His 4th place in last years Gold Cup was respectable and he's run well again over 3m this year, including when a head third behind Monalee. Conditions today will be more in his favour and I think his staying power will put him in good stead to win the race for the sponsors.

Former winner UN De Sceaux loves any dig in the ground. He is an absolute warrior and at 11 years old looked as good as ever when giving Altior a race at Sandown in December. This is longer than his ideal distance however.

He was beaten last year by Balko Des Flos who will probably like conditions again but was 43 lengths behind Road to Respect at Down Royal and about 19 lengths behind him at Leopardstown over 3m. I think this is a race with more back class than last year and expect him to find a few too good.

I'm not sure how well Footpad will stay the trip and his jumping here last year when winning the Arkle would have to be a worry. If he takes to it he could be the class act here but at the odds others are preferred.

1. Road to Respect 9/2
2. Monalee 7/1
3. Footpad 10/3

15:30 - Stayer's Hurdle, 3m (Grade 1)

On form, PAISLEY PARK has to be favourite but he's way to short to be an interesting bet. He logically ticks a lot of boxes despite being halfway down the field in last year's Albert Bartlett. This is a race where that form could easily come unstuck so I wouldn't be going in too heavy on him.

Former Champion Hurdle winner Faugheen has the obvious back class. He looked to be close to Apples Jade when last seen before taking a tumble. It would be a Sprinter Sacresque 'triumph over adversity' story if he can get up to win here but I just fear that 11 that he might be close to having had enough. I would love nothing more than to see him win but his price is naff.

Supersundae could do with a 2m4f hurdle being introduced to the festival but he's shown his versatility in winning Grade 1's over both 2m and 3m. The ground may be against him at a longer trip.

Barcadys is by no means out of this. He hasn't had the ideal preparation having failed to make the transition to chasing. No one better than Willie Mullins to get them back to where they need to be.

Kilbricken Storm and Black Op both bring in good novice form from last year's festival. Neither look to have made the jump up to the open class.

Top Notch is very interesting returning to hurdles for the second time this season and he was a good third behind West Approach and Paisley Park earlier in the year. I prefer him for an each way over West Approach.

1. Paisley Park 5/4
2. Bacardys 14/1
3. Top Notch 14/1 

16:10 - Brown Advisory Plate Handicap Chase, 2m4f

Usually a good race to bet in running. You need to be prominent on the stiff track otherwise there's usually little chance of getting in. Look who's travelling best in the front 7 or 8 after the first few fences and bet on them... otherwise:

1. Azzerti 16/1
2. Didero Vallis 20/1
3. Janika 5/1

16:50 - Mares Novice Hurdle, 2m (Grade 2) 

I think it's between the front 3 and I'd back POSH TRISH to end Willie Mullins' unbeaten run in this.

1. Posh Trish 4/1 

2. Epatante 6/4

3. Sinoria 7/1

17:30 - Kim Muir Chase, 3m2f

1. Touch Kick 22/1
2. It's All Guesswork 9/1
3. Measure of My Dreams 5/1

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival Preview 2019 - Day 2

Day 2 Preview

13:30 - The Ballymore Novice Hurdle, 2m5f (Grade 1)

Being named after Tony McCoy and being a Challow Hurdle winner makes it easy to see why Champ is favourite for this. Not to mention that he's quite a way clear on official ratings too. Challow Hurdle winners have a horrible record in this for some reason and it's enough to put me off. 

BATTLEOVERDOYEN is the standout hope for Ireland and the most obvious one to put it up to the favourite. His Grade 1 win gives him an excellent chance here.

Brewin'upastorm and Beakstown bring nice Grade 2 form here but may not be up to the standard required. City Island might fall into that camp too but remains unexposed. 

Easy Game looks like a nice each way selection and Ruby will be looking to vanish the memory of his last fence fall in the mares race yesterday. 

1. Battleoverdoyen 7/2

2. City Island 9/1
3. Brewin'upastorm 8/1

14:10 - The RSA Novice Chase, 3m (Grade 1)

I think DELTA WORK (NAP) could be the real deal. Since winning the Pertemps by a nose here last year he has really taken to chasing and has bagged two grade 1s en route, thrashing Mortal in doing so. 

Santini is undoubtedly a very good horse but his third in the Albert Bartlett last year and again in the Kauto Star chase over Christmas make me think he's destined to be placed again when coming up against a real grade 1 performed like Delta Work. 

Topofthegame is a more likely challenger. He was 2 lengths ahead of Santini at Kempton and also has Cheltenham form when just a neck 2nd in last years Coral Cup. Paul Nicholl's is having one hell of a season and I think this horse is the most likely challenger to Delta Work. 

On the Blind Side has a squeak but I think will be vulnerable to these provden Grade 1 performers. The same can be said for The Worlds End and the ground has probably gone against him. 

Now McGinty would probably be my each way selection if you prefer one at a price. 

1. Delta Work 13/8
2. Top of The Game 7/2
3. Santini 3/1

14:50 - The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle, 2m5f

Very hard to find the winner. Uradel looks well in towards the bottom of the weights but the price has gone a long time ago. He's one of six Willie Mullins runs as well as Wicklow Brave in the same colours who could outrun his price if returning to his grade 1 winning form.

Lil Rockerfeller, Apples Shakira and KILLULTAGH VIC also hold good Grade 1 form and would go well if recapturing it.

Ballyandy ran a good 4th back in the 2017 Suprme. A return to that sort of form off this weight would stand him in good stead but he was behind Brio Conti last time, who looks like he could be a smart prospect for Paul Nicholls.

Highest Sun is the joint youngest horse in the race alongside Farclas. Both have potential to improve. 

1. Killultagh Vic 14/1

2. Uradel 5/1

3. Brio Conti 10/1

15:30 - Queen Mother Champion Chase, 2m (Grade 1)

ALTIOR is the best horse in training and will make a historic 18th back to back victory over obstacles if winning here. It takes him to be markedly below form or something to go wrong to see any other result. Acts on good, soft and heavy, has dished out a beating to Min at the last three festivals. The only way to get him beat is to get a vast amount of distance in front coming down the hill. They had that last year and he looked in trouble turning in but when he gets to the second last then nothing can live with his turn of foot. 

You'd have to expect that Min will follow him in. The danger to the forecast is if Min pushes too hard to try and beat Altior and doesn't quite last home. In which case Sceaux Royal looks like he could pick up a place. Politolgoue is a classier horse but not necessarily over this course and distance. Ordinary World could outrun his odds. God's Own also deserves a mention and should run into the prize money for a 4th consecutive year for minor honours. 

1. Altior 2/5

2. Min 4/1

3. Sceaux Royal 9/1

16:10 - Cross Country Chase, 3m6f

Three time festival winner and Grand National hero TIGER ROLL made a brilliant return when winning over hurdles earlier in the season. His price is unsurprisingly a bit on the short side given the public following. It's a long race in which anything can happen but he remains the most likely winner off level weights. 

Tea for Two brings Grade 1 winning quality to the race and Auvergnat is more than good enough to give Tiger Roll something to think about. 

1. Tiger Roll - 11/10

2. Tea for Two 20/1

3. Auvergnat 6/1

16:50 - Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, 2m 

1. Lethal Steps 8/1
2. Ciel De Neige 11/1
3. Dogon 22/1

17:30 - Champion Bumper National Hunt Flat Race, 2m (Grade 1)

1. Envoi Allen 7/2
2. Master Debonair 12/1
3. Sempo 12/1

The Whistling Shrew's Cheltenham Preview 2019 - Day 1

It's Cheltenham and the Shrew is back with 4 days of previews and tips! A slightly condensed version this year due to time restrictions but hope you enjoy. I will write a short preview for each race with the selection(s) capitalised. For Example, "Grand National winner, TIGER ROLL bids to make it 4/4 at consecutive festivals".

Just for fun I will do a 1-2-3 in each race too. This is by no means a tip for a tricast!

Good Luck and Stay Shrewd

Shrews Shrewdies

13:30 - The Supreme Novice, 2m

A weak looking renewal of this that makes for quite an open race.

Of the English horses Al Dancer looks likely to go off favourite based on his Betfair Hurdle run. The race is usually a reasonable trial having been a prep for placed horses My Tent or Yours, Kalishnikov and Ballyandy despite not producing a winner in recent times. This renewal was weaker with many horses out for emergency flu vaccinations and I think at the price he still has something to prove.

The same could be said about Angel's Breath who bids to be only a 3rd winner in 25 years of this for Nicky Henderson. He was probably better than the bare fore when narrowly beaten in his last run but hitting a flat spot in the middle of the race would be a worry here and perhaps he was flattered a little by looking quick in the finish.

I prefer the form line of Elixir Du Nutz who would be an each way selection here at 8/1. He has won his last three, two of which were at Cheltenham beating Grand Sarcy and Itchy Feet in the process. He was however beaten by Thomas Darby earlier in the year. He's a strong front runner which may help, but may set him up to be vulnerable to hold up horses. His chance rides on his jockey being able to time the ride well in what are reportedly going to be testing wind conditions.

One who will be tracking the leader all the way around is KLASSICAL DREAM who Mullins has sent here instead of the Ballymore tomorrow. He has a lovely profile since coming to Ireland from France, taking a maiden hurdle before winning a Grade 1 narrowly to Aramon, who also deserves a lot of respect and is a Grade 1 winner himself. Of the two I think Klassical Dream is the less exposed and open to further improvement and is also the choice of the two for Ruby Walsh.

The one from leftfield here is Joseph O'Brien's Fakir D'oudairies who bids to be the first four year old since Hors La Loi to win this race. On official ratings he is well in when taking into consideration his weight allowance and has Cheltenham winning experience. It wouldn't be a surprise if he hit the frame but this will be an altogether tougher test than what he's encountered so far

1. Klassical Dream 5/1
2. Aramon 14/1
3. Elixir De Nutz 8/1

EDIT: Elixir De Nutz now a non-runner. Al Dancer for 3rd.
.

14:10 - The Arkle Novice Chase, 2m

Like the Supreme Novice, a weaker and open renewal, with the two best horses in this division out for the Festival. It will probably take a Grade 2 winning performance to land this. 

I really don't know what to make of it other than ORUNA and Us and Them look great value and that Hardline marginally looks to have the best form coming into it. Duc Des Genievres could be up to this but his price stinks. 

Lalor could win but is underpriced and has been way behind Oruna on two previous starts.

Same with Glen Forsa who should be more like 8/1 though he has a nice profile coming into this.

Kalishnikov has been disappointing this year but will relish the ground. Would increase his chances significantly if it rains a lot. 

1. Oruna 14/1

2. Hardline 9/2

3. Glen Forsa 7/2

14:50 - Ultima Handicap Chase, 3m

Minella Rocco is the class horse based on his Gold Cup second but his recent form is beyond bad. It wouldn't be unheard of for Jonjo to get one right for the day despite that, especially one in these silks, but others are preferred.

Mr Whitaker was a festival winner last year and will probably enjoy the step up to 3m. He is fairly high in the weights but should run well. Give me a Cooper is well campaigned and is a decent favourite. I don't like the odds much though. 

There are plenty of horses who have run well at Cheltenham in the past including Royal Vacation, Singlefarmpayment, Beware the Bear, O O Seven and last years winner Coo Star Sivola who I expect will run well again. All of them have a decent chance

Willie Mullins' Up for Review is probably the best of the three Irish runners, though Noble Endeavour is fascinating on only his 3rd run since placing in this 2 years ago. 

I'm going to take a chance however on an improving horse of Dan Skelton's, CRUCIAL ROLE who pulled up last year in the Albert Bartlett but walked out a wide margin winner over 2m6f last time out. Looks like he might enjoy a step up in trip based on his hurdles form. 

1. Crucial Role 14/1

2. Mr Whitaker 9/1

3. Coo Star Sivola 11/1

15:30 - The Champion Hurdle, 2m 

This is a fascinating contest with two brilliant mares set to take on two time champ Buveur D'Air in receipt of a 7lb allowance. Despite his form being nothing special this year, they will still need to dig deep to unseat him. Laurina could be anything and steps out of mares company for the first time. She may be the next Annie Power but will probably need to be close to that to win. She is built like a chaser and is a powerful horse - the price for me isn't enough to take the chance on her this time. 

I would rather side with APPLE'S JADE (NAP) who has been a long standing favourite of mine and this season she has absolutely blossomed winning 4 races (3 Grade 1's) by a combined distance of 73 lengths... For those new to racing, that's far. Moreover she's shown she can do it at 3m, 2.5m and 2m and has looked astonishing throughout. The one worry is her Cheltenham form which on the surface seems slightly below what she's achieved elsewhere. However, she had valid excuses when beaten in the mares race last year and I'd be willing to give her another chance. 

Both Buveur and Apple's are raw grit and I suspect in a driving finish it would come right down to the wire however I'm not sure Apple's Jade will give him that opportunity. Jack Kennedy can afford to push for home from the front a lot further out. She's had her races this year wrapped up before the last and it wouldn't surprise me if they all find her too hot to live with. 

Of the each way value, Melon would need to bounce back from a poor season to get involved again. Sharjah looks more likely and has a wicked turn of foot, though this ground may not see it to best effect. Verdana Blue lowered the colours of Buveur D'Air at Christmas. Espoir D'Allen I expect will find it too tough at this standard. 

1. Apple's Jade 9/4

2. Sharjah 12/1

3. Buveur D'Air 2/1f

16:10 - The Mares Hurdle 

Benie De Deuix seems to be the best horse in the race. That she hasn't run since winning this last year would be a concern were she not trained by Willie Mullins who pulled off the same feat with Quevega six times. But quite frankly her price is garbage. 

On official ratings she's only 1lb ahead of Limini and Good Time Tara. The former of whom just seems to not have the will to win despite always running her race and the latter who has been thrashed by Laurina but also quite a way behind STORMY IRELAND twice this season. Despite Ruby choosing Benie Des Dieux of the Mullins possibles, I'll stick with her at the prices. 

Roksana deserves a mention and would be a force to be reckoned with based on her 2nd in the Grand Sefton Grade 1 behind Santini last year and her handicap win of a fair weight at Newbury in a big field. Those performances would put her in good stead for a race like this. 

Mia's Storm is a very good horse but I'm not sure she'll be suited by this race. She's been seen to better effect over fences. Lady Buttons, Jester Jet and Momella all look like candidates to hit the frame at a decent price. 

1. Stormy Ireland 9/1

2. Roksana 7/1

3. Lady Buttons 11/2

16:50

1. A Plus Tard 6/1

2. Cubomania 12/1

3. Walt 16/1

17:30

1. Ballyward 5/2

2. Atlanta Ablaze 14/1

3. Discorama 6/1

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Gold Cup Day Preview 2018

Certified headcase Might Bite goes for Gold Cup glory

to give Henderson a big race treble

Gold Cup day! And its an ultra competitive one with the classy King George winner Might Bite heading a condensed market. He takes on last year’s second and third in Minella Rocco and Native River, Christmas Chase winner Road to Respect, Irish National winner Our Duke, Ladbrokes Trophy (Henessey winner) Total Recall, the talented but fragile Killultagh Vic, Irish Gold Cup winner Edwulf, and the talented Definitely Red an American. Should be a good one!

Apples Shakira, full sister to Apples Jade opens the card in a competitive opener. My advice, back her whenever, wherever you can. The Albert Bartlett will be more attritional than usual given the conditions and will require a real dour stayer to win it. I really like Flying Tiger in the county hurdle which means he probably has no chance. The same familiar faces return for the Foxhunter in which the top amateur jockeys battle for a Cheltenham winner before the conditionals get their chance in the Martin Pipe. Then its fasten your seatbelts for the Grand Annual before its all over for another year.

It’s a tricky day today so it may be best to go easy (or do a Might Bite and go easy then nuts at the end). Whether you’re backing the She Wolf or Edwulf,

Stay Shrewd.

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 – Apple’s Shakira 5/2 (NAP)

2:10 – Flying Tiger 12/1, Whiskey Sour 14/1 Mohayed 33/1

2:50 – Talkischeap 20/1, Chef Des Obeaux 5/1

 3:30 – FEATURE RACE: GOLD CUP

Road to Respect 8/1

The Whistling Shrew’s Gold Cup 1-2-3:

1st Road to Respect – 2^nd Our Duke – 3rd Total Recall

4:10 – Burning  Ambition 3/1

4:50 – Sire Du Berlais 10/1 and/or Amour De Nuit 40/1 e.w.

5:30 – North Hill Harvey 8/1 or Bouvereil 12/1

Key Race Guide

1:30 – Triumph Hurdle, 2m1f

Class and Grit. Can Apple's Shakira fend off a highly competitive field?

It makes a man want to speak Spanish.

This looks like a strong renewal of the race and it is a shame We Have a Dream has been withdrawn. But Nicky Henderson still has the best chance of the winner on what we’ve seen so far this season in Apple’s Shakira. She is unbeaten in 4 runs, the most recent three at Cheltenham and has shown she is gutsy as well as classy when winning on poor ground last time out. She is a full sister to the brilliant Apples Jade who was second in this on only her third run and receives a 5lb mares allowance. For me she should be evens.

There are two things keeping her at a bigger price, the first of which is Redicean who has been emphatic in three wins at Kempton this year and will certainly put up a challenge to the favourite. He is higher rated but slightly behind when factoring in the mares allowance and the added advantage of course form has me just siding with Apple’s Shakira.

The second is Willie Mullins who fires another exciting filly in Stormy Ireland into this alongside Mr Adjudicator and Saldier. All three look like they could be classy but have essentially beaten nothing so far and aren’t as battle hardened as their British counterparts. Farclas is another horse with potential but was beaten by Mr Adjudicator last time and I don’t see any reason for him to reverse form.

2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle, 3m

To be honest this is really tough. You need a horse who is a real hard nut to win this, backs of experience and can stay forever. The ground is an additional factor that makes this a really stern test for novice hurdlers. The top two in the market have obvious form claims but this won’t just be about class it’ll be about guts and grit. I’m going to side with Chef Des Obeaux over Santini. I’d also want one in the guts and grit category and theres quite a few contenders for this. Second season novice Callet Mad is as gutsy and gritty as they come and I’ll might regret not making him the section and there are others who make appeal. But I’ve had my eye on Talkischeap for this as a horse with runs under his belt and improved form stepped up in distance.

3:30 - FEATURE RACE: Cheltenham Gold Cup, 3m2.5f

One of the most competitive Gold Cups in years with eight horses officially rated within five pounds of one another. The Gold Cup usually goes to the horse that has shown their form this season which would point towards Might Bite or Road to Respect.

What to say about Might Bite... He is obviously talented and probably the most talented horse in the race as he proved when winning the RSA last year despite his best efforts to throw it away. His length win over Double Shuffle has lead many to question the strength of the King George win, but to be fair he looked like he had a fair bit left in the tank if Nico De Boinville had needed to ask for it. His stamina for me isn’t really the worry, the worry is more his quirks at Cheltenham. His wandering up the run in wasn’t the first time he has done that here having done it twice over hurdles previously. The ground also makes this a more attritional staying test and you have to wonder whether that doesn’t play into the hands of some of his rivals who might get him at it earlier than he’d like. He could win and win well but at the prices I’m content to look elsewhere.

Road to Respect also has festival form, running out an easy winner of the Brown Advisory Handicap

R-E-S-P-E-C-T Aretha Franklin wins the Christmas Chase

last year and he has looked really good upped to 3m this season in winning the Christmas Chase at Leopardstown and finishing just behind Outlander at Down Royal. He still looks progressive and will be freshened up for this. On official ratings he doesn’t have much to find with Might Bite and though I did have a doubt as to whether beating Oulander and Balko De Flos amounts to being good enough to win a gold cup it is a trial that the likes of Synchronised, Denman and Best Mate have taken in on the way to glory. Balko De Flos’ win in the Ryanair is a big boost to the form. Outlander has shown no liking to Cheltenham on his three trips here so I’d expect the same again today. At current odds he looks a good bet to me.

Cometh the rain, cometh the river. One horse who'll relish conditions

The ground is a strong plus for Native River and Our Duke. Native River will be a much fresher horse than he was last year and I’d love to see him win because he’s an exception talent and one of my favourite horses in training. However, his price fully assumes his late start to the season can only be a positive and although he looked good on reappearance when bolting up at Newbury he is a candidate for the bounce factor and faces stiffer opposition than when third last year. Added to that fact is that Minella Rocco is five times the odds and has beaten him twice now at the festival. He would be a credible each way bet but I have ground concerns and his form seems in decline.

The Duke bids to give the Harrington team back to back winners

Our Duke has had quite the different preparation following a poor return at the beginning of the season he was given kissing spine surgery to rectify a back issue and has been raced hard in the calendar year to get himself back up to fitness. I have an antepost double from the end of last season with him to win this and Might Bite the King George so I’m hoping for a big show. The ground will be a plus and I think he’ll stay all day but at this pace. His weakness is his jumping which sometimes can be a little guessy. Puppy power will need to fire him into each fence to avoid any sloppy and costly errors, but I imagine he knows that. The form last time out, beating Presenting Percy and powering away from him when 6lbs worse off has to be taken very very seriously.

The ground could also be a plus for Killultagh Vic on only his 5^th start over fences. This horse is undoubtedly very very good having beaten Thistlecrack over hurdles. He is a past festival winner having won the Martin Pipe on this card back in 2015. He returned this season after a long absence to win a hurdle race before looking potentially the winner in the Irish Gold Cup before falling at the last. On pure talent he could be the winner but there are question marks over his experience and the preparation he’s had to get ready for this. You can probably give Mullins the benefit of the doubt on the latter following the exceptional reappearance of Penhill on Thursday. 

Edwulf the miracle horse goes for the biggest prize of all

His comeback would be considered a miracle if it weren’t for the horse who capitalised on his fall to win the Irish Gold Cup by touching off Outlander on the line, Edwulf, who broke down at Cheltenham last year only to be revived and nursed back to health. If he manages to place here it would be a stunning achievement.

Definitely Red was a good winner of the Cotswold Chase which American looked like he would win turning in before hitting a weird flat spot then running in again. I’d be quite surprised if that form were good enough to win this but they could maybe hit the frame.

Total Recall is probably the best each way shout though. It’s not often you’ll get a Hennessey winner at 25/1 for this so is worth a punt. Anibale Fly may run well if putting his last race behind him.

Realised I haven't mentioned Djakadam... so Djakadam. Now I have.

The Ground

The ground is a really important angle in this as it’s going to become a real slog – this favours horses who have won over further, Our Duke, Native River, Edwulf, Total Recall being four such horses.

Grade 1 form over 3m+

The other thing I’m looking at is specifically form in grade 1 staying chases and to be honest it’s few and far between. Might Bite has it in spades and Road to Respect has improved up to that level this year. The other again is Edwulf. It is a really condensed Gold Cup in terms of ratings so is the kind of year a ‘handicapper’ could come up and simply outstay them, but I still think the ability to beat Grade 1 horses counts for a lot.

The Whistling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Preview

Today sees a competitive Stayer’s Hurdle as its main feature with the market poised to send any one of three horses off favourite. Proven performers Yanworth and Supersundae both have question marks over their head and will need to fend off the lightly raced hothead Sam Spinner if they are to be victorious in a race also featuring old favourites UnowhatImeanharry and The New One.

Speaking of old favourites...The feature performance on this day last year was undoubtedly Un De Sceaux who tugged his

Un de Sceaux bids for back-to-back Ryanair Chases

way to the front way too early in the Ryanair and put in an electric round of jumping to stay there. He is a proven mudlark but this distance in conditions will be another sort of test and may play into the hands of the evergreen Cue Card who (I backed) to win this race at 5/2 a mere 5 years ago. Either would be a massively popular winner.

Laurina looks a good thing in the Mares Novice to make it three out of three for Mullins since the race was first introduced in 2016. The JLT could well be heading to Mullins too with Invitation Only just about favourite to beat a strong English contingent headed by Modus and Terrafort. The two handicaps look as ridiculously difficult to solve as ever but I’ll try anyway...

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 – Invitation Only 3/1 or Shattered Love 9/1

2:10 – Delta Work 12/1

2:50 – Un De Sceaux 11/10 or Frodon 12/1 e.w.

3:30 – Stayers Hurdle: Sam Spinner 7/2 (Nap) or Wholestone 20/1 e.w.

4:10 -  Movewiththetimes 9/1 e.w.

4:50 – Laurina 8/11

5:30 – Mall Dini 6/1  

Key Race Guide

1:30 – JLT Novice Chase, 2m5f

Willie Mullins has an excellent record in this and is represented by Invitation Only who brings Grade 1 form to the table in a good third behind Monalee over this distance at Punchestown.

Terrefort keeps winning despite his trainer not thinking he’s that good. Although not far off the favourite on ratings he hasn’t really beaten much and it’s all been at a lower level than that of Invitation Only. The slightly better form is held by Modus who has looked much more consistent over fences than he did hurdles and he looks the most likely of the British horses. Finains Oscar has potential to turn up but on this seasons evidence can be left alone.

Benatar is by Benefficial who certainly has a good record at Cheltenham but his winners have tended to come in handicap company and I’m not sure he’ll have quite the class to win this. Speaking of sires, Shattered Love represents the flat legend Yeats and has looked excellent when beating Jury Duty to win a grade 1 last time out. She will definitely stay further than this and that could serve her well in the ground. She probably has a couple of lengths still to find on the market principles but its not out of the question and she is the only grade 1 winner in the field.

I have a terrible history of trying to oppose Willie Mullins favourites in this race to little avail so I’ll put up Shattered Love in the hopeless expectation that Invitation Only will win. 

2:50 – Ryanair Chase, 2m5f

This has suddenly become one of the most exciting races of the festival with Un De Sceaux bidding to retain his title. Although he has settled better in recent years, the atmosphere of last years festival lit him up, leading to one of the best displays of the year when dragging Ruby Walsh to the front with a circuit to go and staying there. In behind that day was Sub Lieutenant and Aso, who with all due respect are not the same level of opposition that he faces today. Against better stayers he may well be vulnerable.

Cue Card bids for one last hurrah in a race he won 5 years ago

Over the past 7 seasons there haven’t been many better than Cue Card who must have racings greatest constitution. Now in his 12^th year, his form has become a little patchier but he ran exceptionally well last time out at Ascot behind Waiting Patiently. If Un De Sceaux goes to quick in front he may be there to pick up the pieces as might the improving Balko Des Flos who split Outlander and Road to Respect at Leopardstown in December.

Cloudy Dream and Frodon are both good horses but it would take a big step forward for them to win here. Either could hit the frame and both have very good course form, Cloudy Dream in the Arkle behind Altior and Frodon in Grade 3 handicap company when beating Ultima 2nd Shantou Flyer by a mean 17 lengths with Ultima winner Coo Star Sivola in 4th. Looks like good form now.. 

It’s a tough call and although Cue Card probably represents the best value, I’m going to go heart over head and tip Un De Sceaux to keep his cool for long enough to get home. If he doesn’t quite get it then Frodon has course and distance form that could count for a lot.

3:30 - FEATURE RACE:  Stayers Hurdle

A difficult puzzle to solve with three horses vying for favouritism all of whom come into this race with very different preparations. Supersundae in many ways seems the obvious one having won the coral cup last year and providing a shock win over Faugheen over 2m in the Irish Champion Hurdle. He has undoubted class but there is a nagging doubt about his ability to stay having been set to beat Apple’s Jade over 3m before the mare chased him down and eventually won comfortably with she herself a doubtful stayer. On the ground I don’t know if I can fancy him.

Yanworth bids to break his festival hoodoo

Yanworth has proven himself both over 3m and on the ground and was victorious over Supersundae at the trip at Aintree last season and I think he has the edge of the two today. He is a horse who is probably underrated and doesn’t get the credit he deserves, but the fact remained that he has come here twice and been beaten on both occasions, once over hurdles by Yorkhill and last year tamely fading out in the Champion Hurdle when favourite. He is a class act and if the real Yanworth shows up he may be hard to beat but he has not in any way been prepared for this race. His campaign this year has all been over fences and although he’s done a fair job over the larger obstacles – notably when seeing off Willoughby Court here on heavy – you wonder how easily he’ll transition back and whether 3m on this ground may be just a little too far.

On the up - Sam Spinner could improve to win this

One horse that will love the stamina test is Sam Spinner. I saw him at Haydock in a handicap earlier in the season with my mate Dave McDonna (Hi Dave!). The race was on awful awful ground the day that Bristol De Mai won the Betfair Chase. HE won by about 17 lengths going away and I said to myself “If that horse doesn’t win the stayers hurdle then I’m a Dutchman!” The Dutchman fittingly being the horse he dished out the drubbing to. But in all seriousness... he has subsequently gone on to win at grade 1 level with Unowhatimeanharry, Lil Rockerfeller and The Worlds End all well beaten behind. It may be Cheltenham blog fatigue but looking at that form now 7/2 might be a shade generous.... He is still a young horse and we don’t know a lot about him yet but I’d say if he can repeat his last two runs he is the winner of this. One doubt is he could be more effective over a flat track but that is yet to be tested so we'll find out today. 

Unowhatimeanharry has been given a more gentle preparation this year and it woulnd’t be the biggest surprise if he bounced back with a win. He has each way value but this looks on paper a harder race than last time. Wholestone is an improving horse though who I tipped each way in the Albert Bartlett last year where he ran on into a good third. That’s good course form and he’s gone on this year to win a Grade 2 before just being touched off by Agrapart. Others have slightly stronger form but conditions are certain to suit.

Old favourite The New One finally gets a chance at the longer trip

I nearly forgot to mention The New One who finally gets a shot at a longer trip. This is going to be a real slog for him and as gutsy as he is it’s doubtful it’s going to be his day. Just hope the old boy gives a good account of himself!

4:50 – Mares Novice, 2m1f

Laurina should win to maintain Willie Mullins perfect record in this. Maria’s Benefit is the obvious danger, so maybe a forecast if you fancy it.

The Whisling Shrew - Cheltenham Festival 2018 Preview Day 2

Happy Samcro Day! The hype has been there since he even jumped a hurdle and so far he has done nothing not to justify it. There are some who say his times against the clock are nothing impressive and question what he’s beaten but today we find out if he is the real deal.

 

Altior puts his unbeaten record on the line in his hardest test to date

It is testament to how good connections (his owner aside) think the horse, who is still just a novice hurdler could be that he is being given the headlines on a day that features and exceptional Champion Chase. As if from nowhere we have the mouthwatering prospect of Altior vs Douvan, at their peak the best two mile chasers either side of the Irish Sea. But there are question marks as to whether either will truly be at their peak and though Ruby Walsh chooses to ride Douvan, Min is the Rich Ricci horse who seems to have come of age this season and could provide an upset. They are by no means the only contenders in a race that contains last year’s winner Special Tiara, Tingle Creek winner Politologue and other old favourites Charbel, God’s Own, Ordinary World and Ar Mad making it a stellar renewal in which anything can and probably will happen. It is a race in which hindsight will be proven to be a wonderful thing. Something is the wrong price, I’m not 100% sure what.

Not only that but there is another mouth watering clash in the RSA between Irish hopes Presenting Percy and Monalee, with Bryony Frost sure to steal the headlines if she can nurse Black Corton to a 5^th victory of his season. The Cross Country should be another great head to head with Gordon Elliott leading the way with Tiger Roll and Cause of Causes. The handicap hurdles both look tricky and the champion bumper finishes the card and is as trappy as ever.

Shrew's Shrewdies

1:30 – Samcro should win. Black Op 9/1 e.w. or without the favourite.

2:10 – Black Corton 7/1 e.w.

2:50 – Le Breuil 12/1, Mount Mews 16/1

3:30 – Champion Chase: Altior 11/10 just.

4:10 – Tiger Roll 11/2 ... slight ground worry. Urgent De Gregaine 16/1 e/w

4:50 – Act of Valour 12/1 and/or Malaya 14/1 e/w

5:30 – Rhinestone 7/1. Reverse Forecast Rhinestone and Blackbow

Long shot: reverese forecast on Act of Valour and Malaya at 4:50

Key Race Guide

1:30 - Ballymore Novice Hurdle, 2m5f

Jesus

I think Samcro wins this but he’s too short to back. The Ballymore tends to oddly be more of a speed test than the shorter Supreme and his win in the Deloitte Hurdle showed he has pace as well as stamina to win this. The form was given a minor boost in the fact that Paloma Blue who he beat by 9 lengths that day was 3 lengths behind the winner of the Supreme Novice. I want the horse to win too much that I can't really tell if it's a good bet or not. I think rationally if you can get odds against or evens on the day you should take it. Otherwise just sit back and admire with fingers crossed. 

Next Destination will be his main threat and has the advantage of running here before when coming 4^th in the Champion Bumper. He has beaten Cracking Smart twice this year which is good form. He is also unbeaten in three and is the one to side with if you want to oppose the favourite. Duc Des Genievres was also behind Samcro in the Deloitte and I see no reason the form will be reversed.

Black Op is the best of the English horses and is probably overpriced. May prove a good each way bet if Samcro does flop. At a bigger price Mr Whipped and Real Steel may be interesting to hit the frame but I’d side with Scarpeta as a longer priced bet.

2:10 – RSA Novice Chase, 3m1/2f

Can Bryony Frost and Black Corton cap one of the stories of the

season with a Cheltenham victory?

First thing to say is this is a brilliant race and as such the market is a little bit out of shape. The betting suggests this is a head to head between Presenting Percy and Monalee but it’s a race that often throws one up at a bigger price. Of the two market principles Monalee gave a massive boost to his form when beating Al Boum Photo (2^nd) and Dounikos (4^th) a month ago at Leopardstown. He seemed to be staying on the best of all of them and looked the most likely to enjoy the extra three furlongs. That said his hurdles form over three miles read 124 with a fall on his first chase of the distance which may not be the most encouraging sign. The 2^nd however was at the festival in the Albert Bartlett, but I’d personally have preferred him to line up in the JLT this year. It’s possible though that Presenting Percy’s win in last year’s Pertemps Final was better, though he seemed to be very leniently handicapped that day. His novice chase campaign has been hard to gauge as it’s been slightly unorthodox. His 2^nd behind Gold Cup chance Our Duke who he was in receipt of 6lbs could be read two ways, but his win over 3m5f can only be a positive for his chances of staying in these conditions. Either could win but I think both are too short given my reservations

That leaves us then with the British challenge. Black Corton has been on the go a long time and just keeps surprising connections taking in four wins, significantly two at Cheltenham, and forming a formidable partnership with Bryony Frost en route which has become one of the stories of the season. His only defeat was at the hands of Elegant Escape at slightly less than three miles and on much better ground than they’ll encounter today. The horse was initially seen as a summer horse and has just key going which isn’t exactly an attractive profile but he has to be the tentative selection at current odds.

 Ballyoptic is another horse Black Corton has beaten along the way this season and does feel a little overpriced. He always seems a ‘nearly’ horse in these big races and you feel there will be a big day in him somewhere. It could be today and he reminds me of Blaklion who won this for the same connections a few years ago but doesn’t quite have the same form in the book yet to be a challenger in this.

3:30 - FEATURE RACE: Queen Mother Champion Chase, 2m

The imperious Douvan, undefeated before injury here last year

This race has been a rollercoaster before it even started and from what seemed implausible at the beginning of the year, the big clash is on: Altior vs Douvan (vs Min vs the rest). Until the weekend it looked unlikely that Douvan would line up for this being his first race back since incurring a hairline fracture to his pelvis in a race eventually won by Special Tiara (who will likely go from the front again but find conditions not to his liking today).  Then no sooner than Douvan was declared and with Ruby Walsh aboard, Altior had some pus in his foot and was flagged as a doubt on Monday morning before a positive update was finally given on Tuesday that he would run after all. Phew.

It is hard enough to work out who would win the head to head if they had both had a perfect preparation. I would just about side with Altior as the younger horse of the two. I would side with Altior too on the preparation angle. Although Willie Mullins has an excellent history of prepping horses after a lay off (see Faugheen, Arctic Fire and Killultagh Vic as examples) this is a massive massive ask and I think Douvan has to rely on Altior not being his best to taste victory here.

I’m not overly concerned about the last minute scare for Altior and the pus in his foot. This is something we have seen happen to derby winner Harzand recently before winning his race and is really not too big a deal. The bigger concern is how fresh he is going to be having started his season in February. He won the Game Spirit well, beating Tingle Creek winner Politologue three lengths. He was not fully wound up for that so I don’t think there is a big chance of him bouncing. On past evidence, Nicky Henderson has timed horse’s fitness to perfection and so I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt again.

Altior on his way to beating Min in 2015 

Ruby Walsh is not often wrong, but whether his decision to ride Douvan is a plus for Douvan or a negative for Min we won’t know until after the race. Some would argue that even if Altior turns up 100% then Min’s improvement over fences is enough to get him a lot closer than the 7 length thrashing Altior gave him in the Supreme. It could also be argued that Altior’s win in last year’s Arkle was his least impressive victory and this test may not be his ideal but I’d argue that he was just doing what he had to that day. Min’s chance is a very real one though because he is the most talented horse in the race who has been out and done it repeatedly this season. I’m going to take Ruby Walsh’s decision as a negative for Min though and side with Altior to beat him.

This could be contradicted if you take a form line through Ordinary World literally, with Altior beating him only 15 lengths in the Arkle compared with Min's 30 lengths at Leoardstown, but it's hard to take that literally. It does however allude to Min being possibly much closer to Altior on ability than he was over hurdles. 

Altior wins his races between the last to fences and I don’t think we’ve ever seen him have to rely try. The test here is how he will fare up against not one but two top class rivals from the same stable. Between them they may have more to put it up to Altior than either would alone. When push comes to shove I think he still has a little more to find if he needs it but we won’t know until it happens (or doesn’t). You are basically taking a price on whether Nicky Henderson has managed to get him here 100% fit or not in my view and odds against seems reasonable for that. But expect a real horserace if Douvan turns up 100% too.

Min looks most likely to pick up the pieces if it all comes apart but don’t be afraid to back one at a big price for hitting the frame. Charbel looked like he would’ve given Altior a race last year before falling two out and may return to form when back here.

It is a race where there is potential for every surprising outcome to happen and I really hope all of the horses are able to give their best account on the day. Can’t wait!

4:10 – Cross Country Chase, 3m6f

Cause of Causes bids to retain his Cross Country Crown

Long gone are the days that this was a race for horses who’d lost their way and needed a new challenge to freshen them up. This is now a proper race with proper horses, three of which have been 2^nd in a Grand National in Cause of Causes, The Last Samuri and Saint Are. All of them make some appeal with Causes of Causes being the most obvious to retain his title. It will be interesting however to see how The Last Samuri takes to the banks.

The other Cheltenham hero is the enigmatic Tiger Roll who has the unusual resume of winning the triumph hurdle over 2m and the National Hunt Cup Chase over 4m, so you could say he’s versatile. He ran moderately over these obstacles in December but tracks a very similar route into the race that Cause of Causes did last year and I think he has the class to improve for this and win.

Josies Orders, Bless The Wings and Auvergnat are by no means out of it and would be good bets if going off at a decent each way price but I think the one to keep on side may be French raider Urgent De Gregaine who brings a new meaning to under the radar. He won here in January 2017 and has been lightly raced since. I think he’s overpriced.

4:50 – Fred Winter Hanicap Hurdle, 2m1f

I haven’t had much time to look into this but it pays to follow Paul Nicholls in this race and its not uncommon he has the first two home. So that’s my selection!

5:30 – Champion Bumper, 2m

The best bumper form on offer this season was when Blackbow beat Rhinestone. On available evidence they’re the best horses in the race. I’d have Rhinestone to reverse the form on the better ground, but may be worth a forecast too.